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    Korea Economic Institute

    Volume 5

    Academic Paper Series

    Contents:

    Foreign and Domestic Economies of North and

    South Korea

    The Markets of Pyongyang

    Similar Policies, Dierent Outcomes: Two Decadesof Economic Reforms in North Korea and Cuba

    KORUS FTA Compared with KOREA-EU FTA:

    Why The Dierences?

    Developing an International Financial Center to

    Modernize the Korean Service Sector

    Security Factors and Regional Impact on the

    Korean Peninsula

    Preparing for Change in North Korea:

    Shifting Out of Neutral

    Reviving the Korean Armistice: Building Future

    Peace on Historical Precedents

    Proactive Deterrence: The Challenge of Escalation

    Control on the Korean Peninsula

    Human and Nuclear Security Concerns on the

    Korean Peninsula

    Engaging North Korea on Mutual Interests in

    Tuberculosis Control

    2012 Nuclear Security Summit: The Korean Twist

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    ON KOREA 2012:

    ACADEMIC PAPER SERIESVolume 5

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    5

    Human and Nuclear Security

    Concerns on the Korean Peninsula

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    7

    Engaging North Korea on Mutual

    Interests in Tuberculosis Control

    Sharon Perry, Heidi Linton, Louise Gresham, and Gary SchoolnikSharon Perry served as director of the Stanford DPRK TB Laboratory

    Project from 2008 to 2011, and is a member of the Naonal Commiee

    on North Korea. Heidi Linton is execuve director of Chrisan Friends

    of Korea, Black Mountain, North Carolina; Louise Gresham is director

    of the Global Health and Security Iniave, Nuclear Threat Iniave,

    Washington, D.C.; and Gary Schoolnik is associate dean and professor of

    medicine at Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.

    Relaons on the Korean Peninsula are at their coolest level in more than 20

    years. Since 2006, when the Democrac Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK)

    announced that it had restarted its nuclear facilies, the government has

    challenged internaonal nonproliferaon treaes on several occasions.

    The death of Kim Jong-il in December 2011 as well as plans for transfer

    of leadership to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, bring new complexies to

    government relaons with the outside world. Following military incidentsin 2010 along the long-disputed Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, the

    North has reinforced its relaons with China while pulling back on negoaons

    with the United States and its allies.1

    The DPRK is a foreign policy conundrum. While the regimes nuclear

    ambions remain at the forefront of internaonal security concerns,2

    the world is painfully aware that this isolated and enigmac country of

    24 million people is also plagued by crippling energy, food, and medicalshortages.3 Since the famines of the 1990s, rates of tuberculosis (TB), a

    disease that exploits malnutrion and other condions that compromise

    natural immunity, have risen dramacally and are now among the highest

    in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, including more than triple the

    rates in China and South Korea.4 From 1995 to 2003, the U.S. government

    provided more than a billion dollars in food, energy, and medical assistance

    to North Korea.5 Absent an impact of humanitarian eorts on broader

    diplomac opportunies, internaonal humanitarian contribuons havefallen o dramacally in recent years even as the North Korean economy

    connues to struggle. In the decade since the breakdown of the Agreed

    Framework, it is increasingly apparent that policies tying economic aid to

    nuclear disarmament are not working.6

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    In this paper, we describe our experience working with the civilian DPRK

    Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) to develop the countrys rst modern

    TB laboratory.7 Begun in 2008, this unique collaboraon of U.S.-based

    voluntary interests, including a major medical instuon, a humanitarian

    nongovernmental organizaon (NGO), and a nonprot sponsor, has

    achieved cooperaon on a crical public health objecve during a period

    otherwise marked by profound deterioraon of relaons with the United

    States and its allies in East Asia. Because coordinated global eorts are

    needed to control TB in the anbioc era, we argue such engagements can

    encourage broader assimilaon within the internaonal health community.

    We rst provide background on the modern history of TB epidemics,

    the new challenges to global health security posed by the emergence of

    drug-resistant strains, and how these epidemics can interact with major

    geopolical events. We hypothesize that the TB situaon in North Korea

    today bears ominous parallels with condions accompanying the end

    of the Cold War in Europe and that Northeast Asia faces a similar set of

    challenges as it contemplates opportunies for assimilaon. We then describe

    the process of implemenng the laboratory project and our objectives for

    sustaining this effort. We conclude by discussing implications of these

    efforts for North Korea and global health security interests.

    Tuberculosis and Health

    M. tuberculosis, the cause of human tuberculosis, is an airborne pathogen

    that chronically infects more than one-third of the worlds populaon,

    causing more than nine million cases of acve TB and nearly three million

    deaths each year.8 Classically associated with condions of poverty,malnutrion, aging, and medical condions that suppress the immune

    system, 80 percent of cases occur in the developing world. Because of

    its inmate associaon with general health, parcularly in adults of

    reproducve age, the World Bank and the World Health Organizaon

    (WHO) have characterized TB control as one of the most cost-eecve

    investments developing countries can make.9

    A pathogen of humans for more than 50,000 years,10

    M. tuberculosishas developed strategies for interacng with the human life span. The

    natural history is characterized by three principal stages: exposure, latent

    infecon, and acve disease with transmission to new hosts ENREF 5.11

    Of those exposed to an infecous TB case, about 30 percent are thought

    to develop the state of latent infecon, during which the host remains

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    9Perry, Linton, Gresham, and Schoolnik: Engaging North Korea

    healthy, but TB bacilli may survive for decades within clusters of immune

    cells. Latent infecons constute the pathogens populaon reservoir.

    Although the normal human immune system is substanally equipped

    to control a latent infecon, in 10 percent of these infecons, the latent

    state is terminated by a breakdown in immune defenses brought on by

    malnutrion, illness, or aging, and the individual develops the acve,

    contagious form of the disease. Without treatment, about 50 percent of

    acve cases will die, and each infecous case at this stage will disseminate

    the TB bacillus to 10 to 20 other persons.12 In this way, M. tuberculosis

    is able to infect successive human generaons. In the pre-anbioc era,

    TB epidemics could rage for centuries, devastang isolated populaons

    weakened by hunger and acute infecons.13

    Although anbiocs have greatly improved the treatment outcome

    for TB, current therapy sll requires the combined use of at least four

    dierent anbiocs administered in an uninterrupted manner for at least

    six months.14 Because TB capitalizes on any condion that jeopardizes the

    individuals general health, aenon to the paents nutrional status

    and underlying medical condions is also required. The use of fewer

    drugs, interrupon of drug therapy, inadequate nutrion or intervening

    illness can result in poor clinical outcome (including death) and the

    disseminaon of TB to other persons. For these reasons, control of

    TB requires primary-care approaches and raonal drug management

    strategies, including sustainable, stable, public health structures.

    Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis

    The discovery of curave drugs in the middle of the 20th century,including their applicaon to massive global public health campaigns,

    came at a crical me in the polical realignment of the postwar world

    and the emergence of modern global markets. These developments have

    fundamentally altered the course of TB epidemics, parcularly in the

    West. For example, rates of TB in the United States today are 3.6 per

    100,000 populaon (compared with a global average of 137 per 100,000

    in 200915) compared with 53 per 100,000 in 1953 when the rst an-TB

    drugs were introduced.16

    By the late 20th century, howeverwithin the short span of one human

    generaontwo developments began to threaten these gains. The rst,

    during the 1980s, was the emergence of AIDS, a disease that aacks the

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    same immune cells required to control a latent TB infecon. The AIDS

    epidemic has had a profound impact on TB trends, parcularly in Africa

    where up to 30 percent of new TB cases may be due to HIV co-infecon.17

    The second development was the emergence of muldrug-resistant

    strains of TB (MDR TB), rst reported in the early 1990s.18

    MDR TBdened as resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampicin, the two

    most powerful front-line TB drugsaccounted for nearly a half million cases

    of TB annually, including an esmated 150,000 deaths, in 2008.19 Treatment

    of MDR TB requires up to two years of complex drug management with

    regimens that oen have toxic side eects and are 50200 mes more

    costly than drugs needed to treat persons with TB caused by drug-sensive

    strains.20 Although survival rates are improving, they are only marginallybeer than those of the pre-drug era. Cases of extensively drug resistant

    TB (XDR TB), dened by resistance to the major rst- and second-line TB

    drugs and largely incurable, have now been reported in 58 countries with

    the laboratory capacity to test for it, and it may account for up to 10 percent

    of MDR TB cases globally.21 These trends raise the specter of an era in which

    current drugs are no longer eecve.

    Resistance to TB drugs arises from spontaneous mutaons in the TB ge-nome under drug selecon pressure, condions that are associated with

    sporadic drug use, including poor paent adherence, as well as use of un-

    regulated drug supplies. In this regard, drug-resistant TB is a preventable

    man-made phenomenon. Drug mutaons develop rapidly in the seng of

    monotherapy (use of only one drug for treatment) and will amplify quickly

    to aect remaining drugs in the armamentarium.22 For this reason, com-

    pared with new TB paents, risk of MDR TB is about 5.5 mes greater in

    paents who have received inadequate therapy in the past.23 Because MDR

    TB may develop over months or years, inadequately treated persons who

    connue to be infecous can spread drug-resistant strains to persons in

    their communies.24 If inadequately treated persons migrate across fron-

    ers, drug-resistant strains can be spread to other populaons.

    In absolute numbers, about 50 percent of MDR TB cases occur in China

    and India although the highest proporons of TB cases with MDR (9 per-

    cent of the worlds cases) reside in eastern Europe and Central Asia.25 Asmany as 50 percent of cases in countries of the former Soviet Union are

    resistant to at least one TB drug.26 In parts of the Russian Federaon and

    the countries of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the Republic of

    Moldova, 25 percent of new TB paents and more than 50 percent of

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    previously treated paents suer from muldrug-resistant disease.27 The

    age of these vicms peaks in young adulthood, suggesng a relavely

    recent introducon.28 Muldrug-resistant strains may have been ampli-

    ed by prolonged drug shortages that occurred during the period of eco-

    nomic destabilizaon accompanying the collapse of the Soviet bloc in the

    1980s.29 With the end of the Cold War in Europe, drug-resistant strains from

    this epicenter have now been tracked by molecular ngerprinng methods

    to North America, Europe, the Middle East, and even to South Africa.30

    The magnitude and disseminaon of the MDR epidemic in the Eurasian

    region and South Africa caught the world o guard and caused a reevalu-

    aon of global strategies for TB control. Laboratories with capacity to test

    for drug resistance were not available in most high-burden countries,31

    and it was quickly recognized that the cost of treang MDR and XDR far ex-

    ceeds public health budgets of developing countries.32 Since 2000, massive

    resources have been organized through the STOP TB Partnership (www.

    stoptb.org) to manage MDR and XDR TB and control its spread. A major

    driver in the MDR TB scale-up eort has been the Global Fund to Fight

    AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), which in 2011 contributed

    $700 million to global MDR TB control.33 Global Fund works closely with the

    Green Light Commiee, which recommends standards for MDR TB care,34

    and the Global Laboratory Iniave, which sets quality assurance standards

    for drug suscepbility tesng and works to accelerate access to modern

    TB diagnoscs.35 With addional support from programs like the Presi-

    dents Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), the Obama Global Health

    Iniave, UNITAID, and the Foundaon for Innovave Diagnoscs

    (FIND), 27 high-burden MDR TB countries15 of which were states of the

    former Soviet blochave been targeted for aggressive scale-up operaons.36

    The Soviet experience shows that drug-resistant strains of TB, generated

    in one region as a consequence of failed public health programs, can

    disseminate to spawn outbreaks of drug-resistant disease both regionally

    and remotely. This experience also reminds us that MDR epidemics leave

    costly legacies for which the world community is ulmately responsible.

    We contend that polical and economic condions coinciding with the

    emergence of new drug-resistant strains in the former Soviet Union sll

    persist in Northeast Asia.

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    Tuberculosis in North Korea

    Health System

    TB care in North Korea was heavily inuenced by the Soviet model of

    centralized administraon and sanatorium care. During the 1960s and1970s when Soviet bloc subsidies were plenful, North Korea implemented

    a universal health care program (Arcle 72 of the Constuon), and

    developed its household doctor system. At a reported coverage of 1

    doctor per 134 households, this system boasts one of highest coverage

    raos in Asia even today.37 During this period, the No. 3 (TB) Prevenon

    Department of the MoPH built a mulered residenal treatment system

    for TB with its own pharmaceucal industry, including 10 provincial TB

    hospitals as well as a system of 6070 bed TB rest homes in each of the

    countrys approximately 225 counes and municipal districts.38

    Since the loss of Soviet aid in the 1990s,39 much of the public health

    infrastructure, including physical plant and medical equipment, has

    not been updated, and the TB pharmaceucal industry has virtually

    disappeared. Although the health system remains largely intact

    organizaonally, chronic energy, equipment, and supply shortages plague

    operaons at every level. Today the country relies almost enrely ona dwindling supply of donors for basic medical supplies, including TB

    drugs and diagnoscs. The DPRK is not eligible for basic health sector

    development funds, such as through the World Bank, Internaonal

    Monetary Fund, or the Asia Development Bank.

    Epidemiologic Trends

    In 1998, WHO established a country oce in Pyongyang.40 This program,

    which is supported by connuing cooperave planning agreementsbetween the WHO and the government, provides one source of

    documentaon of health trends inside the DPRK. These and other

    planning documents make it clear that the famines of the mid-1990s

    had a profound impact on the general health status of the populaon,

    including rates of infant and maternal mortality, hepas, malaria, and

    TB.41 From 1996 to 1999, rates of mortality due to TB tripled to more

    than 100 per 100,000 populaon, rivaling some of the worst rates in the

    developing world.42 Average caloric intake in DPRK has steadily declinedover the past 20 years and is the lowest in the Asia-Pacic region; North

    Koreas current caloric intake per person is less than two-thirds of that of

    China and the ROK.43 The Organizaon for Economic Development (OECD)

    esmated that 32 percent of the populaon was malnourished in 2006,

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    and a survey jointly sponsored in 2009 by the World Food Program, Food

    and Agriculture Organizaon, and UNICEF esmated that 32 percent of

    children are of stunted height, 18 percent underweight, and 5 percent of

    low weight for height.44 A new United Naons census released in 2010

    esmates that life expectancy has declined by 3.4 years (to 69.3 years)since 1993, while infant and maternal mortality rates, each among the

    highest in the Asia-Pacic region, have risen 36 percent and 46 percent,

    respecvely, in the same period.45

    TB caseload esmates provided to WHO by the MoPH for 1994, the period

    just before the great famines, show a TB incidence rate of about 38 per

    100,000 populaon.46 Although these gures pre-date the development of

    standardized reporng systems, such rates are similar to those reportedin other Soviet-style systems of the era and would be in a range reported

    by middle-income countries today. In 2001, MoPH adopted the WHO-

    sponsored Directly Observed Short Course Therapy (DOTS) program for TB

    control, including its treatment standards and reporng formats.47 In 2006,

    three years aer this program was implemented naonwide, an incidence

    rate of 178 per 100,000 was reported.48 In 2009, following a small community

    infecon survey,49 WHO doubled its esmates of TB incidence to 345 per

    100,000 populaon.50 For 2010, North Korea is expected to require drugsfor nearly 100,000 TB paents, translang to a case rate more than 370 per

    100,000 populaon.51 Compared with the 22 historically designated high-

    burden countries,52 TB incidence in North Korea ranks number seven or

    number eight in the world, being one of the highest outside of sub-Saharan

    Africa and nearly four mes the rates in China (78 per 100,000) and South

    Korea (97 per 100,000) in 2010 (Figure 1).53 These trends are not due to

    poor program performance, as DPRK maintains very high case detecon

    and treatment compleon rates within the WHO DOTS program.54

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    DPRK ROK China Mongolia

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    400

    350

    300

    250

    200

    150

    100

    50

    0

    Figure 1: Trends in Incidence of Tuberculosis in East Asia,

    19902010

    Source: WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control 2011 (Geneva: World Health Organizaon, 2011),Annex 3.Age-specic case trends and an annual risk of TB infecon esmated at 3.2 percent

    suggest the epidemic is sll expanding (at perhaps 10 percent per year),55

    plausibly fannedby connuing food shortages and acute infecons such as measles that are known tosuppress the immune system.56

    TB Assistance to North Korea

    As a low-income country (less than $1,000 annual income per capita) with

    a TB incidence rate in excess of 100 per 100,000, the DPRK meets high-

    priority condions for assistance through the world STOP TB partnership

    of funds. From 2001 through 2007, the country received basic TB drugsand diagnosc supplies through the WHO-sponsored Global Drug Facility

    (GDF). However, the adequacy and sustainability of this assistance, oen

    supplemented by NGO donaons,57 have been complicated by the countrys

    diplomac isolaon. In 2003 and 2006, for example, the country lost bids

    to qualify for longer-term TB assistance through the Global Fund. Following

    the nuclear test in 2006, a $400,000 grant from the Canadian Internaonal

    Development Agency (CIDA) to WHO for expansion of TB programs in the

    DPRK was withdrawn.58 In 2010, following two exceponal years of bridgefunding through GDF and WHO regional budgets, the Global Fund reached

    an agreement with the DPRK that is expected to connue rst-line TB

    medicines for at least another two years and also enable planning for MDR

    TB surveys and treatment programs. Because the DPRK is subject to the

    Global Funds addional safeguards policies, UNICEF has been appointed

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    principal recipient for the countrys TB and malaria grants.59 Because of

    recent shoralls in Global Fund accounts, funds for the connuaon phase

    of this grant are likely to be subject to signicant cuts.60

    As a result of this problemac funding history, crical capacity needs ofthe DPRK naonal TB program have been postponed even as the countrys

    epidemic has connued to expand. The precise magnitude of this epidemic

    is uncertain, however, because published epidemiologic data may dier

    from stascs heard by NGOs on the ground, and Web resources oen

    present diering esmates. In addion to basic energy and nutrional needs

    not covered by standard TB program assistance, one of the most crical of

    the postponed agendas has been development of resources to diagnose

    and treat drug resistance. Unl iniaon of the U.S.-DPRK TuberculosisProject, the DPRK naonal TB program was one of the few operang in

    a country with a TB incidence rate over 300 per 100,000 populaon that

    lacked funding for development of at least one facility for diagnosis of TB

    by culture and drug suscepbility tesng. In the absence of such facilies,

    the contribuon of drug resistance to this epidemic, including the types

    of drugs needed to treat paents who fail to respond to standard therapy,

    cannot be determined. Although the DPRK is not a candidate for the global

    MDR scale-up eort targeted to high-burden countries, rates of drug

    resistance are likely to be signicant, a predicon based on retreatment

    rates reported to WHO as well as regional trends.61

    Regional Implicaons

    The DPRKs TB epidemic has important implicaons for Northeast Asia,

    including provinces of northeast China, Mongolia, and neighboring oblasts

    of the Russian Federaon. Rates of drug resistance in Northeast Asia

    are some of the highest in the world outside of the Russian Federaon,with which the area shares extensive borders. In 2008, the China

    Center for Disease Control reported that rates of drug resistance in the

    northeastern provinces of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Liaoning,

    and Heilongjiang exceeded 7 percent among new cases of TB and ranged

    from 24 percent to 37 percent among previously treated cases. A small

    naonwide survey carried out in Mongolia during 1999 found rates of

    isoniazid mono-resistance to be as high as 30 percent, although rates of

    muldrug resistance may be lower than in neighboring areas owing to therelavely late introducon of rifampicin in that country.63

    High background rates of MDR TB, especially among previously treated

    paents in this region, may be due to shared historical circumstances. Public

    health systems in this part of the world are sll recovering economically

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    from the breakup of the communist bloc. Older, sanatorium-style systems

    of TB care are common, and much of the laboratory infrastructure requires

    upgrading.64 Many countries in the region have experienced unprecedented

    prosperity and are just beginning to launch MDR scale-up programs.

    Although more than one-half of the worlds MDR burden occurs in China,

    India, and other parts of East and Southeast Asia,65 less than 4 percent

    of these cases have been been enrolled in treatment programs to date.66

    Compared with 12 in the European region,67 there are only three cered

    supranaonal TB reference laboratories (in Chennai, Bangkok, and Hong

    Kong) serving the enrety of connental Asia. South Koreas supranaonal

    TB reference laboratory, a designated training center in the internaonal

    reference and research system, is inaccessible to North Korea. In short,

    because of the constraints of Cold War relaons, this region is poorly

    prepared to respond to a collapse of TB care on or within its borders. For

    this reason, the response to the DPRK TB epidemic must also be looked at

    in the context of supporng an important health security agenda for an

    epidemiologically vulnerable region of the world.

    In summary, the TB epidemic in the DPRK has evolved ominously since

    the breakup of the Soviet Union and the famines of the 1990s. In contrast

    with the Soviet experience, and in part in response to it, the global healthcommunity is far beer organized today to ensure that no country,

    regardless of its polical system, goes without basic TB drugs. At the same

    me, because of connuing diplomac isolaon, the country remains o

    the radar for internaonally funded MDR scale-up programs. This should

    be seen as an urgent regional priority.

    The U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project

    Goals

    The goals of the U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project are to develop sustainable

    professional and academic collaboraons with the North Korean Ministry

    of Public Health focused on mutual interests in TB control and to facilitate

    networking with other TB programs in the region and internaonally.

    History

    The concept for this project arose indirectly from unocial discussionsaending the so-called track 2 arm of the six-party talks. In February of

    2007, during the h round of the six-party talks, the DPRK agreed to

    phase out the Yongbyon nuclear plant in exchange for economic assistance

    and eventual normalizaon of relaons.68 Working with this framework,

    Stanford professor of polical science, John W. Lewis, solicited School

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    of Medicine colleagues to assess the prospects of engagement focused

    on mutual interests in TB control. Following these discussions, Lewis

    obtained approvals for a delegaon of DPRK public health ocials to

    meet with TB specialists at Stanford. In January 2008, with sponsorship

    from the Freeman-Spogli Instutes Center for Internaonal Security and

    Cooperaon (CISAC) and Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacic Research

    Center (APARC), four DPRK MoPH ocials and one protocol ocer spent

    a week in northern California, touring TB facilies in the San Francisco

    Bay Area (Figure 2). The Bay Area TB Consorum (Stanford/BATC), an

    aliaon of TB physicians, microbiologists, and epidemiologists drawn

    from the areas medical schools and public health departments, was

    organized by Stanford School of Medicine to host the delegaon along

    with ex ocio representaves from the Korea Society, Eli Lilly Foundaon,

    the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevenon (CDC), and WHO.

    Figure 2: MoPH

    Delegaon at

    Stanford University,

    12 January 2008

    During these discus-

    sions, MoPH repre-sentaves, led by

    the director general

    of the No. 2 and No.

    3 (TB and Hepa-

    s) Departments,

    requested assistance

    to complete a modern TB reference laboratory at the campus of the No. 3

    (TB) Prevenon Hospital in the capital city of Pyongyang. Although WHO

    and MoPH had devised a site plan and equipment inventory for this project

    in 2006, the iniave had since stalled for lack of funds.69

    Implementaon

    From this seminal meeng at Stanford, the U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project

    evolved into the partnership of the Stanford Bay Area TB Consorum, the

    Nuclear Threat Iniave/Global Health and Security Iniave (NTI/Global

    Health and Security Iniave), and Chrisan Friends of Korea. Since 2009,these organizaons have contributed a combined total of more than

    $600,000 and have completed more than 12 in-country visits to develop the

    DPRKs rst modern TB laboratory. Despite signicant diplomac reversals

    coinciding with our schedule, momentum was not aected, and U.S. teams

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    2008

    MOPH visit

    to Stanford

    2008

    CFK on-site visit

    2009Deliveries &

    Installaons

    2010

    Dedicaon

    Ceremony

    2010-Present

    BATC Training

    Workshops

    U.S. food program ends

    Missile Test, Nuclear Test

    Choenan Incident

    Yeongpyong Island Incident

    experienced extraordinary cooperaon from MoPH and other government

    ocials. Implementaon of the project has progressed through four

    principal stages, including organizaonal development, site assessments,

    installaons, and technical training (Figure 3).

    Figure 3: U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project Implementaon Schedule

    Source: Authors concept.

    Organizaonal development (March 2008December 2008).

    Shortly aer the meeng at Stanford, organizers obtained the proposed

    TB laboratory inventory from WHO representaves in Pyongyang and,

    with assistance of Dr. Gail Cassell of the Eli Lilly Foundaon, successfully

    applied to the NTI/Global Health and Security Iniave of the Nuclear

    Threat Iniave for funds to carry out site assessments and purchase

    the recommended equipment and supplies. During this phase, Stanford

    organizers also iniated contacts with the U.S.-DPRK NGO community

    and established ongoing working relaons with world health ocials in

    Pyongyang, New Delhi, and Geneva to ensure that laboratory donaons

    conformed to internaonal standards and plans for the DPRK. In October

    2008, Chrisan Friends of Korea (CFK), a U.S. NGO with more than 15 years

    of experience provisioning and renovang TB facilies in North and South

    Hwanghae provinces, was able to visit the proposed laboratory site during

    one of its regular in-country technical missions. CFK developed a physical

    infrastructure report, idenfying an addional budget for infrastructurerenovaons, including plumbing and electricaon, needed to support the

    proposed Stanford and NTI equipment donaons.

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    On the basis of these assessments, in December 2008, Stanford and

    CFK approached the DPRKs mission to the United Naons in New York

    to propose a joint undertaking. Under this plan, CFK agreed to organize

    logiscs and in-country visits, secure necessary U.S. export licenses,

    and complete physical renovaons in cooperaon with MoPH and local

    hospital sta. Stanford/BATC agreed to assess TB laboratory technology

    needs, procure the TB laboratory inventory in collaboraon with its

    funding sponsor, and organize in-country expert training workshops.

    Thus, the project built upon a previously established foundaon in U.S.-

    DPRK NGO relaons and evolved to combine a strong mix of U.S.-based

    scienc, humanitarian, and health policy experse in TB control.

    On-site assessments (April 2009September 2009).Following MoPH acceptance of this proposal, joint Stanford/CFK site

    assessment teams visited the laboratory site in May and August of 2009

    (Figure 4) to develop work plans and procurement specicaons in

    consultaon with MoPH and WHO representaves. Technical experse

    on the assessment teams included a construcon engineer, a biomedical

    engineer, and a clinical laboratory consultant from CFK and, on behalf of the

    Stanford/BATC, a supervising scienst from a TB public health laboratory in

    California and a TB epidemiologist from Stanford School of Medicine. Three

    coordinators from the MoPHs Department of External Aairs were assigned

    to facilitate in-country delegaons during the rst on-site assessment visit,

    and they have remained invaluable partners of the project ever since.

    Figure 4: Site Plan-

    ning Visit, May 2009

    Based on these site

    assessments, licenseapplicaons for reno-

    vaon materials and

    laboratory supplies

    were submied to

    the Bureau of Indus-

    try and Security of

    the U.S. Department

    of Commerce. Fol-

    lowing approvals in

    the summer of 2009, procurements were completed and prepared for

    shipment during September 2009.

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    Delivery and installaon (November 2009October 2010).

    From 29 October to 24 November 2009, a 22-member revolving delegaon,

    including CFK and Stanford/BATC work teams and a representave from

    the NTI/Global Health and Security Iniave, spent nearly a month working

    at the laboratory site in Pyongyang. Scores of MoPH personnel (including lab

    sta, doctors, nursing students, and volunteers) worked side by side with

    skilled CFK volunteer construcon teams to remodel rooms, install electrical

    and plumbing systems, and build workbench spaces (Figure 5). A CFK

    bioengineer together with a team of Stanford/BATC laboratory trainers and

    MoPH laboratory physicians installed and tested several pieces of equipment.

    Two addional visits in May and August of 2010 were required to complete

    the renovaons and verify inventory. During the summer of 2010, CFK raisedaddional funds and oversaw the installaon of a four-kilometer dedicated

    high voltage cable connecng the laboratory to the municipal power supply.

    Figure 5: CFK and MoPH Work

    Crews Threading New Electrical

    Lines, November 2009

    With physical plant installaons

    completed, DPRKs rst TB lab-

    oratory designed to perform

    reference-level quality assurance,

    culture, and drug-suscepbility

    tesng was formally dedicated

    on 18 October 2010 in a ceremony

    hosted by the vice minister of the

    Ministry of Public Health. In addion to representaves from Stanford/

    BATC and CFK, ocials from the WHO Pyongyang oce, UNICEF (thenew Global Fund agent for the DPRK), and sta from the No. 3 (TB)

    hospital campus were in aendance.

    Training and technical assistance programs (November 2010present).

    The Stanford/BATC team includes public health laboratory specialists

    from the state of Californias TB laboratory system, the Stanford Hospitals

    Clinical Microbiology Laboratory, and infecous disease faculty from the

    Stanford School of Medicine, as well as outside consultants. Individual

    members of this group have extensive experience in internaonal health,

    including service on WHO and CDC working commiees, and on advisory

    panels of country-based infecous disease control programs.

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    Figure 6: Naonal

    Tuberculosis Refer-

    ence Laboratory,

    Joint BayArea TB

    Consorum-MoPHTraining Workshop,

    October 2010

    This team is comple-

    mented by CFK pro-

    fessional volunteers,

    including a clinical

    laboratory professor,

    a bioengineer with extensive experience in internaonal sengs, and

    a rered clinical microbiologist uent in Korean. Since November 2009,

    these teams, in collaboraon with MoPH physicians and laboratory

    technicians, have been conducng orientaon and training workshops

    covering basic safety procedures, inventory maintenance, and standard

    operang procedures for culture and drug suscepbility tesng (Figure

    6). The project also seeks to foster regional aliaons for TB control and

    in April 2011 sponsored a visit by seven MoPH ocials to the ShanghaiCenters for Disease Control. Addional workshops and training exchanges

    are planned through 2012.

    Future of the Project

    Located within the No. 3 (TB) Prevenon Hospital, DPRKs new naonal

    TB reference laboratory is a 2,500-square-foot facility, including 13 rooms

    modeled and equipped to internaonal laboratory standards and a

    dedicated power supply to run incubators and other essenal equipment

    on a 24-hour basis. The laboratory has a sta of 15 administrators,

    physicians, and technicians. Three laboratory physicians have been

    with the project since the meeng at Stanford in 2008. The laboratory

    project has also served as a catalyst for addional investments in central

    TB control. With the help of CFK, the Central TB Prevenve Instute in

    Pyongyang, where the laboratory is housed, has since completed a state-

    of-the-art operang room suite and installed three greenhouses for food

    producon, with addional plans in 2012 to develop classroom facilies.

    Role of the laboratory in tuberculosis control.

    To prepare for its role in naonal TB control, the new reference laboratory

    must undergo internaonal inspecons and parcipate in eld trials

    designed to assure the reliability and quality of laboratory results.

    Ulmately, the plan is to develop capacity to test several thousand

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    cases of suspected MDR TB per year. The laboratory is also expected

    to develop capacity to provide surveillance for the naonal TB control

    program, determine prevalence of drug resistance in North Korea,70

    and guide treatment in paents suspected of having drug resistance.71

    By oering modern, reference-level diagnosc and clinical consultaon

    services, the laboratory can also serve as a naonal resource or center of

    TB excellence for physicians, laboratorians, and medical and laboratory

    trainees throughout the country. This resource can also help integrate TB

    care provided by other ministries into the MoPH DOTS program.

    We believe these goals are feasible over the next two to three years,

    parcularly if MoPH is able to build academic collaboraons with scienc

    teams such as the BATC and develop aliaons with internaonal laboratoryand medical organizaons. The high literacy rate in the DPRK and the

    competencies observed by the BATC training team also suggest that MoPH

    possesses the human capital needed to realize these goals. The project

    is currently working with the WHO country oce to assess connuing

    training needs in order to strengthen qualicaons for internaonal

    accreditaon and create opportunies for collaborave research on MDR

    TB with academic instuons in the region as well as abroad.

    Factors contribung to success.

    The momentum of this project has depended on several interrelated

    factors. First, from a polical perspecve, the project beneted from the

    iniave of policy specialists at the outset to recognize an opportunity

    for health engagement during a period when work toward normalizaon

    of relaons with the United States seemed possible. Second, the project

    addresses a public health priority (TB control) that is recognized at the

    highest levels of the DPRK government. The experse assembled through

    the Bay Area TB Consorum and eorts to involve world health authories

    in planning are important as MoPH moves toward qualicaons for

    broader internaonal support. Third, NTI/Global Health and Securitys

    prior work building cooperaon across disputed borders and recognion

    of the need for cooperave disease surveillance72 led to crical funding

    support for laboratory donaons. Having this funding secured at an early

    stage of planning helped greatly to spur the organizaonal partnerships

    needed to implement the project. Fourth, the preexistence of a highly

    valued NGO relaonship with CFK, including CFKs reputaon for trust

    building, follow-through, and sincere humanitarian focus, was a crical

    factor in gaining acceptance from government ocials on both sides of

    the Pacic. Fih, academic instuons must be prepared to ancipate

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    signicant infrastructure needs in the DPRK that are precedent to building

    producve program collaboraons. Thus, partnering with CFK also brought

    important experience and capacity to address crical renovaon and

    electrical power needs associated with TB programs in the DPRK. Finally,

    the connuity of personnel on both sides enabled an atmosphere of mutual

    understanding and focused persistence to ourish.

    Many challenges along the waysuch as delivery delays, freezing

    temperatures, retrong problems, sickness on the work teams, and

    the need to improvise training condions in the early stagescould

    have derailed the iniave. These were overcome cheerfully and in

    good faith and have contributed to strengthening es between the U.S.

    and DPRK teams. At the same me, the next stage of this projecttosupport accreditaon of the laboratory through training partnerships

    and operaonal research collaboraonis crical to establishing the

    sustainability of our eorts and the potenal for this unique U.S.-DPRK

    cooperaon to have a meaningful impact on TB trends in the DPRK.

    Implications

    The modern history of TB epidemics, including emergence of HIV

    and MDR TB in the second half of the 20th century, has taught us that

    professional and economic isolaon are dangerous co-conspirators.

    Control of TB in the anbioc era requires coordinated internaonal

    approaches to upgrade laboratory infrastructure, manage global drug

    supplies, and support research for new diagnoscs, drugs, and vaccines.

    Academic collaboraons with the DPRK focused on TB research and control

    oer important, ideologically neutral opportunies for assimilaon withinthe internaonal health and related scienc research community. Through

    the World STOP TB partnership, the American-Thoracic Society, the U.S.

    CDC, and the Internaonal Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease,

    the internaonal TB professional community has developed an extensive

    global network of training, consultancy, and quality assessment resources.

    Providing opportunies for North Korean public health ocials to link to

    this dynamic pedagogic community should be a priority.

    The establishment of a reference-level naonal TB laboratory in the DPRK

    also begins to address an important blind spot in TB control for Northeast

    Asia. The laboratory can serve as a basis to foster new professional relaons

    applied to regional disease surveillance, infrastructure development,

    innovave professional pracces, and other technical assistance exchanges.

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    Regional partnerships, such as the Middle East Consorum on Infecous

    Disease Surveillance and the Mekong Basin Disease Surveillance Network,

    show that such engagements are possible despite the lack of diplomac

    relaons among member countries.73 Other regions of the world that

    would benet from regional planning for TB control include the Eurasian arc

    encompassing Afghanistan to Pakistan, India, and the southern republics of

    the former Soviet Union, and the cluster of countries in Southeast Asia.

    For polical reasons similar to those aecng Northeast Asia, countries in

    these clusters report to dierent WHO regional headquarters.

    In contrast with the situaon 25 years ago, the world is in a far beer posion

    today to recognize the risks of MDR TB epidemics where food and TB drug

    shortages persist. Although substanal resources are now available to respondto MDR TB hot spots, the TB epidemic in North Korea illustrates that these

    mechanisms sll do not work well in non-treaty areaswhere, nonetheless,

    they may be most needed. First, in regions isolated by conict, epidemiologic

    trends are oen dicult to track or the documentaon simply does not

    exist. Second, high-level polical agreements needed to engage in regional

    planning and to implement crical assistance programs may not be possible.

    Third, food, immunizaon, and energy shortages, typically not embraced

    as TB program assistance, are part of weakened public health systems and

    need to be addressed by internaonal TB response systems. Finally, policy,

    humanitarian, and medical communies need to work creavely together to

    structure the opportunies that lead to construcve, sustained engagement

    in areas isolated by conict. For these reasons, private iniaves such as ours

    remain vital to extend the froners of global TB control eorts.

    Our project worked within an exisng bureaucrac structure that is unique

    to the history of TB assistance for the DPRK. For these eorts to translateinto broader engagement opportunies for U.S. academic instuons,

    addional educaon is needed. At the present me, the primary point of

    access for university engagement is through the Korean-American Private

    Exchange Society (KAPES), a self-described nonprot North Korean enty

    established in 2005 and charged with managing U.S.-based humanitarian

    and academic relaonships. This structure faces limitaons in introducing

    the extraordinary range of intellectual resources that U.S. universies can

    bring to academic collaboraons with North Korean sciensts.74 Recent

    eorts like the U.S.-DPRK Scienc Exchange Consorum75 are important

    not only to educate North Korea about the organizaon of higher educaon

    and research in the United States but also to promote a coordinated

    approach to academic engagement on the U.S. side.

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    Summary and Conclusions

    Historically, health assistance has been relegated to the role of humanitarian

    eort and has occupied a subordinate role in foreign policy. With globalizaon

    and the emergence of shared threats such as HIV, MDR TB, avian inuenza,and bioterrorism, health and security policy are increasingly connected.76

    As one of the last outposts of Cold War polics,77 the 60-year-old Korean

    conict challenges us to recognize this connecon. While media coverage

    of North Korea remains dominated by convenonal security concerns, U.S.

    cizens, including more than two million ethnic Koreans, are increasingly

    aware of the economic rigors faced by the North Korean people.78

    As some observers are suggesng,79

    economic sancons intended to inducethe DPRK to abandon its nuclear weapons programs may be untenable

    from both security and humanitarian perspecves. In this view, by greatly

    discouraging foreign private sector parcipaon, economic sancons have

    had the unintended eect of exacerbang a public health crisis in the DPRK.

    Tuberculosis trends, a barometer that touches every aspect of human

    health, illustrate the deadly externalies of this approach. Our experience

    shows that construcve health engagements with the DPRK are possible

    despite diplomac reversals at the state-to-state level. A review of sanconspolicies with the aim of facilitang broader public health engagements, like

    the U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project, is urgently needed for humanitarian

    reasons. In the longer term, expanded public health exchanges may also

    contribute to the reducon of tensions on the Korean Peninsula and a

    posive evoluon of relaons with the DPRK.

    Sharon Perry served as director of the Stanford DPRK TB Laboratory Project

    from 2008 to 2011, and is a member of the Naonal Commiee on NorthKorea. Gary Schoolnik is associate dean and professor of medicine at Stanford

    University School of Medicine, Stanford, California; Heidi Linton is execuve

    director of Chrisan Friends of Korea, Black Mountain, North Carolina; and

    Louise Gresham is director of the Global Health and Security Iniave,

    Nuclear Threat Iniave, Washington, D.C.

    The authors gratefully acknowledge the Stanford/BATC laboratory advisory

    and training teams, including Dr. Ed Desmond, Dr. Niaz Banaei, Ms. Grace Lin,

    Ms. Linda Kuo, Dr. Robert Luo, and Dr. James MacLaughlin as well as CFK clinical

    laboratory expert Dr. Marcia Kilsby of Andrews University, CFK microbiologist

    Dr. Choong Park, CFK construcon engineer Mr. Rob Robinson, CFK bioengineer

    Mr. Mark Heydenburg, and more than a dozen skilled volunteer tradesmen. The

    authors thank Mr. David Straub for his valuable comments on the manuscript.

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    40 As an arfact of the Korean conict, the DPRK is assigned to the South East Regionof WHO operaons headquartered in New Delhi, while South Korea (and also China)is assigned to the Western Pacic Region, headquartered in Manila.

    41 WHO, WHO Country Cooperaon Strategy, 20042008; D. Goodkind and L. West, TheNorth Korean Famine and Its Demographic Impact, Populaon and Development Review(2001).

    42 WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control: Country Data, World Health Organizaon,Geneva, 2010.

    43 WHO, Health in Asia and the Pacic; OECD, Health at a Glance. Average caloric intake

    for the Asia-Pacic region was esmated at 2500 k/cal in 2007 (Food and AgricultureOrganizaon, faostat.org, cited in OECD, Health at a Glance). The 2009 WFP/FAO/UNI-CEF Crop and Food Security Assessment used a baseline of 1640 k/cal for North Korea.

    44 Instute of Children Nutrion, DPRK 2004 Nutrion Survey: Report of Survey Results(Pyongyang, DPRK, 2005).

    45 North Koreans Life Expectancy Falls as Infant Mortality Rises, The Times (London),22 February 2010.

    46 WHO, WHO Country Cooperaon Strategy, 20042008.

    47 DOTS focuses on paent adherence to a course of treatment and is thus a strategicprevenon program for MDR TB.

    48 WHO, DPRK: Country Prole, World Health Organizaon, Geneva, 2006.

    49 WHO, The Regional Strategic Plan for Tuberculosis Control 20062015 (New Delhi:World Health Organizaon, Regional Oce for Southeast Asia, 2006).

    50 WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control: Country Data; WHO, Democrac PeoplesRepublic of Korea: Tuberculosis Prole, 2009, www.who.int/tb/data.

    51 Sarveshwar Puri, personal communicaon with author; meeng at WHO CountryOce with representaves of the U.S.-DPRK Tuberculosis Project, Pyongyang,25 April 2010.

    52 WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control 2010.

    53 WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control: Country Data.

    54 WHO, DPRK: Country Prole, 2010.

    55 WHO, The Regional Strategic Plan for Tuberculosis Control 20062015.

    56 According to WHO Country Prole, 2009, HIV infecon is not considered a factorin the DPRK TB epidemic.

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    57 Chrisan Friends of Korea and the Eugene Bell Foundaon have provided supplementaldrugs as well as food and agricultural and other supplies to TB facilies largely in thefour westernmost provinces of the DPRK since 1997.

    58 WHO and MoPH ocials, personal communicaon to members of the Stanford/BATC,14 January 2008; U.S. food aid to the DPRK dropped to nothing in scal years 2006 and

    2007, and in 2008 the United States terminated new shipments through the WorldFood Programme owing to disagreements over vericaon; see Foreign Assistance toNorth Korea (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Oce, 12 March 2010).

    59 UNICEF, Strengthening Tuberculosis Control in DPR Korea, Global Fund to FightAIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, North Korea, 2010. In 2012, DPRK plans to apply fora connuaon of its Global Fund award through 2014; like many countries enteringconnuaon phase, cuts are expected owing to donor replenishment shoralls.

    60 Ibid.

    61 WHO, Global Tuberculosis Control; J. Parry, North Koreas Fight against TuberculosisGets a Boost, BMJ (Clinical research ed) 340 (2010): c2223.

    62 G. X. He et al., Prevalence of Tuberculosis Drug Resistance in 10 Provinces of China,BMC Infecous Diseases 8 (2008): 166.

    63 WHO, Muldrug and Extensively Drug-Resistant TB (M/XDR-TB); G. Tsogt et al., Na-onwide Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Survey in Mongolia, 1999, Int J Tuberc Lung Dis6 (2002): 28994.

    64 G.X. He et al., Availability of Second-Line Drugs and An-Tuberculosis Drug SuscepbilityTesng in China: A Situaonal Analysis, Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 14 (2010): 88489.

    65 Gandhi et al., Muldrug-Resistant and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

    66 WHO, Muldrug and Extensively Drug-Resistant TB (M/XDR-TB).

    67 Gandhi et al., Muldrug-Resistant and Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

    68 E. Cody, Tentave Nuclear Deal Struck with North Korea, Washington Post, 13 Febru-ary 2007; J. W. Lewis and R. Carlin, What North Korea Really Wants, Washington Post,27 January 2007.

    69 WHO, Regional Strategic Plan for Tuberculosis Control 20062015.

    70 WHO, Guidelines for Surveillance of Drug Resistance in Tuberculosis, 4th ed. (Geneva: WorldHealth Organizaon, 2009).

    71 WHO, Treatment of Tuberculosis: Guidelines, 4th ed.

    72 L. Gresham, A. Ramlawi, J. Briski, M. Richardson, and T. Taylor, Trust across Borders: Respond-ing to 2009 H1N1 Inuenza in the Middle East,Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense,Strategy, Pracce, and Science 7 (2009) 399404.

    73 Ibid.

    74 Sharon Perry, The Stanford North Korean Tuberculosis Project, in U.S.-DPRK Educaonal Ex-changes: Assessment and Future Strategy, ed. Gi-wook Shin and Karin J. Lee (Stanford: WalterH. Shorenstein Asian Pacic Research Center, Stanford University, 2011).

    75 H. Seo and S. Thorson, Academic Science Engagement with North Korea,Academic PaperSeries on Korea (Korea Economic Instute) 3 (2010): 10521; P. C. Agre and V. Turekian, Ad-vancing Science, Promong Peace,Science Translaonal Medicine 2 (2010): 12.

    76 D. P. Fidler, Health as Foreign Policy: Harnessing Globalizaon for Health, Health PromoonInternaonal21 (2007): 5158.

    77 F. Gavin, Same as It Ever Was: Nuclear Alarmism, Proliferaon and the Cold War, Interna-onal Security34 (2009): 737.

    78 Barbara Demick, Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea (New York: Speigel &Grau, 2009).

    79 Lewis and Carlin, Review U.S. Policy toward North Korea.

    Perry, Linton, Gresham, and Schoolnik: Engaging North Korea

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    Authors:

    John Everard

    Jos Luis Len-Manrquez

    Yeongkwan Song

    Yoon-shik Park

    Michael J. Mazarr and the Study Groupon North Korean Futures

    Balbina Y. Hwang

    Abraham M. Denmark

    Sharon Perry, Heidi Linton,Louise Gresham, and Gary Schoolnik

    Duyeon Kim

    On Korea began in December 2006 with the initiation of KEIs

    Academic Paper Series, a year-long program that provides both

    leading Korea scholars and new voices from around the world

    to speak and write on current events and trends on the

    Korean peninsula.

    Each year, KEI commissions approximately ten papers and

    distributes them individually to over 5,000 government officials,

    think tank experts, and scholars around the United States andthe world. Authors are invited to the Korea Economic Institute

    to discuss their research before a Washington, DC policy

    audience. At the conclusion of each series, the papers are

    compiled and published together as the On Korea volume.

    To learn more about how to contribute to future Academic

    Papers Series forums and other programs at KEI, please visit:

    www.keia.org.

    ark

    e.