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14 September 2016

Energy Weekly Energy Sector

Bocom Energy Weekly

Sector news around the block

IEA: Oil demand growth is slowing down; markets remain uncertain in 2017. IEA released monthly oil report on Tuesday, saying global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted. IEA expected a global oil demand growth of 1.2mn bbl/d in 2016, a downgrade of 0.1mn bbl/d from last month’s forecast due to a more pronounced 3Q16 slowdown. Although global oil supply fell by 0.3mn bbl/d in August, the near-record OPEC supply offset the steep non-OPEC decline, and non-OPEC output is expected to return to growth in 2017 (+0.38mn bbl/d) following an anticipated 0.84mn bbl/d decline this year.

EIA adjusted up Brent crude price forecast for 2016, and sees more production in 2017. EIA forecast Brent crude oil price to average US$43/bbl in 2016 (US$1/bbl higher than its forecast last month) and US$52/bbl in 2017. Meanwhile, its latest U.S. crude production forecast for 2017 is 0.2mn bbl/d higher than that last month to reflect the assumptions of higher drilling activities and rig efficiency.

CNOOC’s Weizhou 6-9/6-10 oilfield commenced production. CNOOC announced on Monday that Weizhou 6-9/6-10 oilfield has commenced production. Weizhou 6-9/ 6-10 oilfield is located in South China Sea with an average water depth of 35 meters. Weizhou 6-9/6-10 currently has 1 operating well with daily production of 850 bbl and is expected to reach peak production of 3.8 thousand bbl/d in 2018. CNOOC holds 100% interest in Weizhou 6-9/6-10 oilfield.

Oil prices slipped on demand worries. Brent crude price fell by 2% in early trading on Tuesday as IEA expected global demand to slow down at a faster pace after OPEC revised up its demand forecast for 2016 on Monday. OPEC said the upward revision was mainly to reflect better-than-expected OECD data for the first half of the year. U.S. oil rig count added by 7 to 414 last week and U.S. commercial crude inventory declined by 14.5mn bbl to 511.4mn bbl according to the data released by EIA last week, while U.S. oil production fell by 30 thousand bbl/d to 8.46mn bbl/day. The U.S. inventory data scheduled to be released on Wednesday will be a market focus. Focal stocks of the week: Shanghai PetroChem (338.HK) and Sinopec (386.HK).

Figure 1: Share price performance & commodities

Performance Last

Price 1-D

chg(%) 1-Week chg(%)

1-mth chg(%)

3-mth chg(%)

6-mth chg(%)

1-yr chg(%)

YTD chg(%)

O&G PetroChina 857 HK Equity 5.04 -1.4 -3.8 -5.6 -6.8 -7.0 -12.3 -0.8 Sinopec 386 HK Equity 5.36 -1.1 -6.0 -4.1 -0.4 8.3 4.1 14.5 CNOOC 883 HK Equity 9.48 0.5 -2.3 -1.5 1.0 3.3 10.6 17.5 Gas Utility Hong Kong China Gas 3 HK Equity 14.36 -1.2 -1.6 -1.6 5.4 13.2 6.0 3.9 ENN Energy 2688 HK Equity 39.25 -0.6 -1.1 -3.8 0.4 0.1 -4.8 -5.1 China Resource Gas 1193 HK Equity 25.70 1.2 -1.5 10.1 14.2 19.0 19.3 11.0 Tianlun Gas 1600 HK Equity 7.12 -0.4 2.4 11.3 26.5 22.8 4.7 4.1 Chem Shanghai Petrochemical 338 HK Equity 3.87 -1.3 -3.5 -5.1 4.6 6.3 29.4 25.2 Oil Services COSL 2883 HK Equity 6.04 -1.5 -4.6 -3.4 -5.2 -5.8 -25.2 -9.4 Hilong 1623 HK Equity 1.00 2.0 4.2 -6.5 28.2 -3.8 -36.7 -25.9 Commodities Brent EUCRBREN Index 46.3 -1.6 -0.9 0.2 -4.1 17.3 -2.4 29.5 WTI USCRWTIC Index 46.3 0.9 4.2 4.1 -5.7 20.2 3.7 25.0 Dubai PGCRDUBA Index 43.7 -3.9 0.5 1.6 -4.7 21.3 -5.6 36.0 Cinta APCRCNTA Index 43.8 1.4 8.1 10.9 -7.4 23.4 0.2 45.0 Henry hub NGUSHHUB Index 3.0 2.5 4.9 10.9 23.9 73.8 12.4 29.5 Index HSI HSI Index 23216 -0.3 -2.4 2.0 13.2 14.9 8.0 5.9 Shanghai SHCOMP Index 3024 0.1 -2.2 -0.9 6.7 7.6 -5.5 -14.6 S&P 500 SPX Index 2159 1.5 -1.0 -1.1 3.8 6.8 10.1 5.6

Source: BOCOM Int’l, Bloomberg

This week’s energy updates:

IEA: Oil demand growth is slowing

down.

EIA adjusted up Brent crude price

forecast for 2016.

Oil prices slipped on demand

worries.

Brent Crude Price

Brent

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16

USD/bbl

Source: Company data, Bloomberg

WTI Crude Price

WTI

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70


USD/bbl

Source: Company data, Bloomberg

Tony Liu

[email protected] Tel: (852) 3766 1806

UP MP OPUP MP OP

Energy Sector 14 September 2016


2

Natural gas price

U.S. Henry Hub futures settled at US$2.99mmBtu this Monday, up 5% compared with the

prior week.

Figure 2: Henry Hub Price

Henry Hub

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


USD/MMBTU


LNG price

Domestic LNG price stayed at the same level compared with the prior week.

Asia LNG LZA1 commodity price stayed at the same level compared with the prior week.

Figure 3: China domestic LNG price Figure 4: Asia LZA1 Commodity price

Domestic LNG Price

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Au

g-0

7

May

-08

Feb

-09

No

v-0

9

Au

g-1

0

May

-11

Feb

-12

No

v-1

2

Au

g-1

3

May

-14

Feb

-15

No

v-1

5

RMB/Ton

LZA1 Comdty

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

29

-Ju

l

29

-Se

p

29

-No

v

29

-Jan

29

-Mar

29

-May

29

-Ju

l

29

-Se

p

29

-No

v

29

-Jan

29

-Mar

29

-May

29

-Ju

l

USD/MMBT

U

Source: BOCOM Int’l, Wind Source: BOCOM Int’l, Bloomberg



3

Apparent demand (July 2016)

Crude Oil: 11.5 mbbl/d, -2% YoY; production fell by 8% while import rose by 12%

compared with the same period last year.

Natural Gas: 173.5 bcm, +3% YoY; production slightly increased by 2% and import was up

by 1% compared with the same period last year.

Figure 5: July 2016 China apparent demand ————YTD (Jan-July) ————

Jul.2016 MoM YoY 2014 2015 14-15 % 2015 2016 % of Diff.

Crude Oil mbbl/d 11.2 -2% -2% 10.3 10.9 6% 10.9 11.5 6%

Crude oil processed mbbl/d 10.6 -4% -4% 10.3 11.0 6% 11.0 11.0 0%

Gasoline mbbl/d 2.6 -6% -4% 2.4 2.7 11% 2.7 2.8 4%

Diesel mbbl/d 3.2 -7% -8% 3.5 3.5 1% 3.6 3.3 -8%

Fuel oil mbbl/d 0.4 -10% 15% 0.6 0.5 -12% 0.6 0.5 -9%

Natural Gas bcm 14.3 -1.5% 3% 169.7 173.5 2% 99.9 111.8 12%

LPG mbbl/d 1.5 -9% 10% 1.0 1.3 23% 1.2 1.5 27%

Lubricating oil mbbl/d 0.1 -10% -64% 0.3 0.3 -1% 0.3 0.2 -31%

Naptha th tons/d 105.4 -4% 8% 89.2 95.8 7% 92.8 108.8 17%

Kerosene mbbl/d 0.8 -2% 10% 0.6 0.7 27% 0.7 0.8 11%

Source: BOCOM Int’l, CEIC

Figure 6: Crude oil apparent demand Figure 7: Natural gas apparent demand

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 2015 2016m bpd

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0


2014 2015 2016bcm

Source: BOCOM Int’l, CEIC Source: BOCOM Int’l, CEIC

Figure 8: Gasoline apparent demand Figure 9: Diesel apparent demand

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


m bpd

2014 2015 2016

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0


m bpd

2014 2015 2016

Source: BOCOM Int’l, CEIC Source: BOCOM Int’l, CEIC



4

Petrochemicals

Figure 10: China ethylene production vs. PMI

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Aug-16

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

China Ethylene Production YoY (LHS) PMI China (RHS)(%)

Source: BOCOM Int’l

A+H listed company valuation comparison

Figure 11: A+H listed comparables

Company Code Rating Price H/A Diff

Chg % since AH connect

Target Price

% upside Mkt Cap –––P/E––– Cur EV

EV/Ebitda (x) – P/BV (x) – Yield (%)

Net debt/equity ROE (%)

LCY USDm 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E

H Share

PetroChina 857 HK Neutral 5.04 -46% -42% 5.50 9% 190,409 160.8 33.1 284,892 8.0 7.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.4 40 34 0.4 1.9

Sinopec 386 HK Neutral 5.36 -14% -16% 6.00 12% 88,006 13.5 12.4 127,861 4.8 4.6 0.6 0.6 4.2 4.5 28 22 5.7 6.0

COSL 2883 HK Sell 6.04 -60% -61% 5.40 -11% 6,702 -3.6 18.8 9,826 10.5 9.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 73 73 (15.0) (15.0)

Shanghai Petrochem 338 HK BUY 3.87 -49% 49% 4.60 19% 8,272 7.3 7.9 7,774 6.4 6.6 1.4 1.3 4.1 3.8 -10 -24 21.2 17.2

Sinopec Oilservices 1033 HK Non-rated 1.53 -69% -53% n.a n.a 7,391 -8.6 n.a 9,535 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Average 60,156 33.89 18.05 87,978 7.43 6.90 0.82 0.77 2.25 2.83 32.91 26.40 3.06 2.53

A Share A/H Diff

PetroChina 601857 CH 7.29 84% -7% 190,411 155.9 28.0 284,892 7.6 6.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.6 n.a n.a 0.7 3.7

Sinopec 600028 CH 4.92 17% -6% 88,007 16.0 12.1 127,861 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.8 3.2 4.0 19 13 6.2 7.6

COSL 601808 CH 11.94 151% -32% 6,702 -7.5 137.5 9,826 99.2 13.0 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.3 50 49 (14.0) (0.4)

Shanghai Petrochem 600688 CH 5.97 96% 67% 8,272 14.2 15.4 7,774 7.1 7.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 n.a n.a 20.6 16.9

Sinopec Oilservices 600871 CH 3.87 221% -7% 7,391 n.a n.a 9,535 23.2 15.1 2.4 2.5 0.0 0.1 61 65 (5.6) (0.7)

Average 60,156 44.64 48.24 87,978 28.45 9.44 1.72 1.65 1.28 1.62 43.20 42.39 1.58 5.42

A Share Only

Guanghui Energy 600256 CH 4.2 -46% 3,283 104.8 n.a 6,601 n.a n.a 2.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 n.a n.a 1.6 4.5

Offshore Oil Engineering 600583 CH 6.99 -12% 4,626 14.7 12.6 4,111 n.a n.a 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 -23.7 -28.8 7.7 7.9

Average 3,955 59.76 12.61 5,356 n.a n.a 1.63 1.57 0.92 0.81 -23.74 -28.84 4.65 6.23

H Share - Consensus

PetroChina 857 HK 190,409 81.2 16.7 284,892 7.5 6.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.6 35.2 32.8 0.9 3.9

Sinopec 386 HK 88,006 15.7 12.1 127,861 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.8 3.3 4.2 21.5 18.3 5.3 6.6

COSL 2883 HK 6,702 n.a n.a 9,826 140.5 13.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 47.7 46.6 (19.0) 0.2

Shanghai Petrochem 338 HK 8,272 7.9 9.1 7,774 7.1 8.0 1.5 1.4 4.0 3.5 -12.2 -22.7 20.9 15.9

Sinopec Oilservices 1033 HK 7,391 n.a n.a 9,535 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Average 60,156 34.94 12.62 87,978 40.11 8.07 0.92 0.86 2.20 2.73 23.05 18.77 2.02 6.64




5

Figure 12: Global comparables Company Code Price Mkt Cap 3M Avg T/O –––P/E––– Cur EV EV/Ebitda (x) ––P/BV (x)–– –Yield (%)– Net debt/equity – ROE (%) –

LCY USDm USDm 16E 17E USDm 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E

Asia -- China PetroChina 857 HK 5.04 190,432 52.0 160.8 33.1 284,913 8.0 7.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.4 40.5 34.2 0.4 1.9 Sinopec 386 HK 5.36 88,015 58.9 13.5 12.4 127,869 4.8 4.6 0.6 0.6 4.2 4.5 28.4 21.7 5.7 6.0 CNOOC 883 HK 9.48 54,560 70.8 347.0 14.5 63,536 5.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.3 32.5 26.9 0.3 6.0 Average 111,002 60.6 173.7 20.0 158,773 6.0 5.2 0.7 0.6 1.7 2.7 33.8 27.6 2.1 4.6 COSL 2883 HK 6.04 6,702 9.0 -3.6 18.8 9,827 10.0 10.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 73.2 73.2 (15.0) (15.0) Sunshine Oilsand 2012 HK 0.62 374 1.5 n.a. n.a. 570 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a. n.a. MI Energy 1555 HK 0.84 318 0.7 n.a. n.a. 986 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a. n.a. -- India Reliance Ind RIL IS 1046.50 50,829 45.2 12.1 12.0 71,080 10.6 9.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 54 58 11.5 10.6 ONGC ONGC IS 251.00 32,167 15.2 12.7 12.3 36,800 5.0 5.2 1.1 1.1 3.1 3.2 20 18 9.1 9.0 Cairn India CAIR IS 189.05 5,309 10.4 21.6 22.3 2,716 5.1 5.0 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.4 -36 -9 2.8 3.3 Average 29,435 23.6 15.5 15.5 36,865 6.9 6.7 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.9 13 22 7.8 7.6 -- Japan Inpex 1605 JP 847 12,174 49.5 42.5 43.4 14,053 3.4 3.7 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.1 13 19 1.4 1.0 Japex 1662 JP 2,180 1,225 6.2 n.a. n.a. 2,141 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.3 2.3 13 16 n.a. n.a. Average 6,699 27.8 42.5 43.4 8,097 3.4 3.7 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.2 13 17 1.4 1.0 -- Thailand PTT PTT TB 316.00 25,966 53.5 10.5 9.6 45,128 5.4 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.7 4.0 21 22 11.1 11.2 PTTEP PTTEP TB 76.50 8,710 30.0 20.3 13.7 9,407 3.0 2.7 0.8 0.7 2.6 3.2 -3 -3 3.8 5.2 Average 17,338 41.7 15.4 11.7 27,267 4.2 3.9 1.0 0.9 3.1 3.6 9 9 7.5 8.2 -- Australia Woodside WPL AU 27.57 17,492 57.6 20.0 16.1 22,551 8.3 7.2 1.2 1.2 4.0 4.8 31 29 5.7 6.9 Origin Energy ORG AU 5.08 6,708 31.2 20.9 16.1 13,738 11.1 7.8 0.6 0.6 2.6 3.9 69 60 2.6 3.6 Santos STO AU 3.72 4,973 33.9 n.a. 15.1 9,326 8.6 6.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 2.1 54 48 (3.2) 3.9 Oil Search OSH AU 6.45 7,396 40.4 55.8 23.4 10,837 13.6 10.3 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.7 70 61 2.7 5.7 Caltex Australia CTX AU 32.62 6,407 34.2 16.3 15.0 6,932 9.1 8.6 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.4 19 15 19.3 19.6 Average 8,595 39.5 28.3 17.1 12,677 10.1 8.0 1.4 1.3 2.2 3.2 49 43 5.4 7.9 Asia Average 34,614 38.6 19.6 21.3 48,736 6.9 6.6 0.9 0.9 2.3 2.7 23 24 4.8 5.9 International -- Oil majors Exxon XOM UN 87.29 361,961 322.8 36.9 20.3 408,358 11.4 7.8 2.1 2.1 3.4 3.5 22 20 6.0 9.7 Royal Dutch Shell RDSA NA 21.735 200,316 253.0 25.1 12.7 277,259 8.7 5.9 1.0 1.0 7.7 7.7 43 41 4.4 8.5 Chevron CVX UN 102.25 192,897 215.6 81.7 21.8 230,060 10.0 6.6 1.3 1.3 4.2 4.3 25 23 1.2 4.1 BP BP/ LN 422.05 105,436 19,555.5 27.8 14.2 138,683 7.1 5.4 1.2 1.2 7.1 7.1 33 34 2.6 8.1 Total FP FP 42.87 120,559 266.7 15.2 11.3 153,228 7.5 5.7 1.2 1.1 5.6 5.6 33 32 7.8 10.4 Conoco-Phillips COP UN 42.67 52,847 97.1 -16.1 83.7 77,659 13.4 7.4 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.4 62 65 (8.9) 0.8 Average 172,336 3,451.8 28.4 27.3 214,208 9.7 6.5 1.4 1.4 5.0 5.1 36 36 2.2 6.9 -- Other integrated Petrobras PETR4 BZ 13.95 60,762 177.0 27.1 9.5 166,253 6.3 5.5 0.7 0.7 2.6 4.7 160 155 1.6 5.0 ENI ENI IM 13.42 54,794 254.3 n.a. n.a. 70,639 5.6 3.9 n.a. n.a. 6.0 6.0 29 29 0.5 4.6 Statoil STL NO 126.40 49,329 61.8 41.8 14.3 64,135 4.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 5.7 5.8 48 48 3.1 8.3 Occidental OXY UN 75.85 57,944 85.8 -123.5 54.6 62,524 16.3 9.8 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.0 23 24 (2.2) 4.1 Repsol REP SM 12.21 20,106 97.1 12.5 10.2 35,511 n.a. n.a. 0.6 0.6 5.7 5.6 46 43 5.5 5.5 Hess HES US 49.88 15,796 219.1 -10.0 -16.7 20,883 15.1 8.6 0.8 0.8 2.0 2.0 19 22 (7.3) (4.1) Average 43,122 149.2 -10.4 14.4 69,991 9.5 6.2 1.2 1.2 4.3 4.7 54 54 0.2 3.9 -- Russia Gazprom GAZP RU n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.8 8.2 TNK-BP TNBP RU n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Average n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.8 8.2 -- US Upstream Anadarko APC UN 57.79 31,994 58.1 -20.9 -154.9 49,592 12.3 8.9 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.5 92 90 (12.4) (3.1) Apache APA UN 59.90 22,727 48.7 -75.4 48.9 31,799 10.7 7.3 3.5 3.8 1.7 1.7 172 164 (5.5) 7.3 EOG EOG UN 92.98 51,199 75.4 -55.8 176.4 57,405 20.8 12.2 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.7 48 47 (7.5) 1.1 Devon DVN UN 43.19 22,614 80.6 -192.8 33.7 37,670 16.3 10.5 4.4 4.0 1.0 0.5 68 70 (2.4) 8.3 Marathon MRO UN 15.47 13,107 58.6 n.a. n.a. 17,804 12.4 7.9 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 27 26 (4.0) (1.5) Chesapeake CHK UN 8.05 6,254 37.2 -38.2 9.3 19,223 17.2 9.0 12.3 5.9 0.0 0.0 418 438 (24.9) (699.2) Noble NBL UN 36.64 15,743 40.2 -32.1 -64.7 22,491 10.4 8.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.1 61 58 (5.9) (3.1) Encana ECA UN 10.27 8,728 19.0 -77.8 42.8 14,154 16.1 8.9 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 77 79 (5.4) 3.7 Range Resources RRC UN 42.92 7,300 36.9 -204.4 202.5 9,867 15.4 9.7 2.1 2.2 0.2 0.2 128 133 (1.9) 1.4 Pioneer Natural Res PXD UN 183.21 31,074 80.8 -538.9 238.2 31,447 17.7 13.6 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 13 18 (1.6) 0.9 Murphy Oil MUR UN 28.27 4,868 30.8 -22.4 126.2 6,945 8.0 5.5 0.9 1.0 4.7 4.5 36 35 (4.9) (0.7) Newfield NFX UN 44.23 8,784 40.4 53.9 33.3 11,049 12.2 10.0 7.6 6.1 0.0 0.0 140 142 11.3 21.0 Ultra UPL UN n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Average 18,699 50.6 -109.5 62.9 25,787 14.1 9.3 3.7 3.0 1.0 0.9 107 109 (5.4) (55.3) -- Canada Suncor SU CT 34.93 44,415 87.9 -122.5 25.7 55,624 12.7 7.6 1.3 1.3 3.3 3.4 39 37 (1.5) 4.4 Canadian Natural CNQ CT 40.31 33,921 59.0 -48.1 43.9 47,184 15.0 8.7 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.3 70 61 (3.4) 4.6 Imperial Oil IMO CT 39.68 25,693 16.3 106.1 17.9 32,408 19.8 10.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 25 18 2.3 8.4 Husky HSE CT 15.91 12,221 10.9 -27.3 36.0 17,758 9.6 6.3 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.6 26 21 (3.4) 4.0 Talisman TLM CT n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 157 n.a. n.a. Average 29,063 43.5 -23.0 30.9 38,243 14.3 8.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 40 59 (1.5) 5.4

Source: BOCOM Int’l



6

Figure 13: China utilities comparables Company Code Price Mkt Cap 3M Avg T/O –––––P/E––––– Cur EV EV/Ebitda (x) ––P/BV (x) –– ––Yield (%)–– Net debt/equity ––ROE (%)––


China gas utility/distributors * Hong Kong China Gas 3 HK 14.36 23,540 18.8 22.4 22.0 27,514 20.3 20.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 29 22 12.8 12.3 Kunlun Energy 135 HK 5.81 6,046 9.5 11.0 9.5 10,502 4.7 4.4 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.5 37 39 8.3 9.0 Beijing Enterprise 392 HK 40.05 6,516 9.2 8.0 7.6 12,871 15.8 14.9 0.8 0.7 2.8 3.0 43 42 10.5 10.2 * ENN Energy 2688 HK 39.25 5,477 12.9 11.8 10.7 7,128 6.5 5.8 1.9 1.7 2.9 3.2 36 30 16.7 16.5 * China Resource Gas 1193 HK 25.70 7,368 8.0 15.4 15.2 9,260 10.3 9.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 32 20 15.2 13.9 China Gas Holding 384 HK 12.28 7,773 6.4 16.7 14.0 10,343 12.9 11.3 2.9 2.7 1.4 2.0 76 75 18.4 21.3 Towngas China 1083 HK 4.21 1,472 1.7 9.0 8.5 2,448 11.5 10.8 0.8 0.7 2.7 2.9 45 46 8.6 8.4 Jingneng 579 HK 2.35 2,081 2.1 6.6 5.8 5,647 7.6 6.8 0.9 0.8 n.a. n.a. 152 131 13.2 13.5 Tianjin Jinran 1265 HK 0.69 164 0.1 n.a. n.a. 132 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Tianlun Gas 1600 HK 7.12 908 0.5 n.a. n.a. 1,318 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.6 0.0 Green Dragon Gas GDG LN 227.50 472 1.5 n.a. n.a. 581 14.9 8.0 0.6 0.7 n.a. n.a. 16 34 2.9 5.3 Binhai Investment 2886 HK 1.93 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. 541 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.8 24.0 Average 5,620 6.4 12.6 11.6 7,357 11.6 10.1 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.5 52 49 13.8 12.2 China IPP's Huaneng 902 HK 4.87 14,411 28.1 5.8 7.0 40,683 7.1 7.6 0.7 0.7 8.6 7.1 154 154 12.5 9.7 CR Power 836 HK 14.10 8,738 15.7 6.9 7.7 20,884 5.8 5.9 0.9 0.8 5.9 5.8 103 105 13.4 11.0 Datang Power 991 HK 2.11 6,707 5.5 6.8 6.8 37,274 10.2 10.2 0.6 0.6 4.7 5.5 258 245 9.8 9.9 Huadian 1071 HK 3.50 6,982 7.8 5.2 6.2 25,787 7.0 7.2 0.6 0.6 7.6 6.4 178 179 12.8 10.1 China Power Int'l 2380 HK 3.02 2,863 10.4 5.8 7.1 10,235 6.9 7.3 0.7 0.6 7.4 6.1 130 142 11.9 9.5 Average 6,323 9.8 6.2 6.9 23,545 7.5 7.7 0.7 0.7 6.4 6.0 167 168 12.0 10.1 Alternative energy - Wind China Longyuan 916 HK 6.82 7,065 12.2 13.1 10.9 19,493 9.1 8.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 168 175 9.1 10.0 Huaneng Renewable 958 HK 2.97 3,724 11.2 9.8 8.3 11,216 8.8 7.7 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.1 275 296 13.3 14.2 Datang Renewable 1798 HK 0.78 731 0.1 14.4 8.4 7,459 9.4 7.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.5 325 357 3.0 5.2 China Ruifeng 527 HK 0.92 213 0.2 n.a. n.a. 439 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Average 2,934 5.9 12.4 9.2 9,652 9.1 7.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.8 256 276 8.5 9.8 Alternative energy - Solar GCL-Poly Energy 3800 HK 1.14 2,731 11.6 7.3 7.0 8,056 6.0 5.5 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 164.9 205.0 12.9 12.1 Trina Solar TSL US 10.50 971 18.0 11.4 34.9 2,442 7.5 9.2 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 121.7 155.1 9.1 4.3 Suntech Power STP US n.a n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Average 1,851 14.8 9.3 20.9 5,249 6.7 7.4 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 143.3 180.1 11.0 8.2


Figure 14: Oil services global comparables Company Code Price Mkt Cap 3M Avg T/O –––––P/E––––– Cur EV EV/Ebitda (x) ––P/BV (x) –– ––Yield (%)–– Net debt/equity ––ROE (%)––


China oil services companies COSL 2883 HK 6.04 6,702 9.0 -3.6 18.8 9,827 10.5 9.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.6 73 73 (15.0) (15.0) Offshore Oil Engineering 600583 CH 6.99 4,627 28.9 14.7 12.6 4,111 n.a n.a 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 -24 -29 7.7 7.9 Brightoil 933 HK 2.18 2,855 0.7 n.a n.a 4,378 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a CIMC Enric 3899 HK 3.30 824 1.5 10.6 10.4 857 6.2 5.7 0.9 0.9 2.9 3.1 -9 -17 8.0 8.9 Anton Oilfield 3337 HK 0.73 209 0.5 n.a n.a 553 9.1 7.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.0 82 81 n.a n.a Hilong 1623 HK 1.00 219 0.5 10.1 6.1 541 9.9 7.5 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.9 53 50 4.0 6.2 Honghua 196 HK 0.41 169 0.1 n.a n.a 856 14.1 12.5 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9 n.a n.a n.a n.a SPT Energy 1251 HK 0.55 109 0.1 n.a n.a 132 -15.9 24.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 13 28 n.a n.a Petro-king 2178 HK 0.34 76 0.1 n.a n.a 120 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Chu Kong Steel Pipe 1938 HK 1.07 139 0.1 n.a n.a 1,018 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a TSC Offshore 206 HK 1.07 98 0.0 n.a n.a 120 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Jutal Offshore 3303 HK 0.59 61 0.1 n.a n.a 76 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Greka Drilling GDL LN 3.38 18 0.9 n.a n.a 21 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Average 1,239 3.3 8.0 12.0 1,739 5.6 11.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.6 31.3 31.0 1.2 2.0 International oil service companies Schlumberger SLB US 78.80 109,587 456.7 70.1 40.0 120,387 18.1 14.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 32 34 4.0 6.8 Halliburton HAL US 42.40 36,511 355.1 -239.5 46.8 46,367 23.1 14.1 3.8 3.9 1.7 1.7 61 60 (1.9) 7.8 NOV NOV US 34.07 12,866 133.2 -37.6 -86.0 14,553 54.0 24.8 0.9 0.9 1.8 0.6 9 7 (3.0) (1.3) Tenaris TS US 26.77 15,801 64.9 214.2 47.0 n.a n.a n.a 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.8 -11 -8 0.9 3.2 Baker Hughes BHI US 49.70 21,267 157.3 -20.7 -365.4 20,466 106.8 16.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 0 3 (8.8) (0.7) Weatherford WFT US 6.26 5,610 90.9 -6.1 -13.0 12,455 33.5 13.5 1.4 1.6 0.0 1.3 147 144 n.a n.a Vallourec VK FP 4.08 2,038 32.6 -2.4 -6.6 3,434 -12.5 33.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 49 60 n. n. ShawCor SCL CN 31.26 1,543 5.4 -188.3 16.8 n.a 31.4 8.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 24 11 (2.5) 10.6 Average 25,653 162.0 -26.3 -40.1 36,277 36.3 18.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.6 38.8 38.9 -1.9 4.4 Offshore vessel & equipments companies

Transocean RIG US 9.81

3,584

164.2

13.1 -

26.2

9,970

6.1

8.7

0.2

0.3 0.0 0.0 40 38 2.3 (1.0)

Swiber SWIB SP n.a n.a 0.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Triyards Holding ETL SP 0.28 66 0.1 2.9 2.6 214 5.0 4.5 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 10.1 10.3 Basic Energy BAS US 0.61 26 2.0 n n 944 -24.1 27.0 -0.2 -0.1 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Average 46 0.7 2.9 2.6 12,478 -9.5 15.7 -0.2 -0.1 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a




7

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Head of Research @bocomgroup.com Head of Research/ Strategy @bocomgroup.com

Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA (852) 3766 1818 raymond.cheng Hao HONG, CFA (852) 3766 1802 hao.hong

Banks/Network Financials Strategy

Shanshan LI, CFA (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058 lishanshan Anna ZHOU (852) 3766 1823 anna.zhou

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Environmental Services Property

Wallace CHENG (852) 3766 1810 wallace.cheng Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM (852) 3766 1807 alfred.lau

Philip TSE, CFA, FRM (852) 3766 1815 philip.tse

Luella GUO (852) 3766 1830 luella.guo

Gaming & Leisure Renewable Energy

Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM (852) 3766 1807 alfred.lau Louis SUN (86) 21 6065 3606 louis.sun

Healthcare Technology

David LI (852) 3766 1811 david.li Chris YIM (852) 3766 1803 christopher.yim

Insurance & Brokerage Transportation & Industrials

Shanshan LI, CFA (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058 lishanshan Geoffrey CHENG, CFA (852) 3766 1809 geoffrey.cheng

Li WAN, CFA (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051 wanli Fay ZHOU (852) 3766 1816 fay.zhou

Jennifer ZHANG (852) 3766 1850 yufan.zhang

Internet Automobile

Yuan MA, PhD (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039 yuan.ma Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan

Connie GU, CPA (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045 conniegu

Mengqi SUN (86) 10 8800 9788 - 8048 mengqi.sun

Mid-Cap Industrial & Building Materials

Angus CHAN (852) 3766 1805 angus.chan

http://www.bocomgroup.com/



8

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