Energy Sustainability as a Global Imperative (Presentation) · 2013. 9. 20. · Energy...
Transcript of Energy Sustainability as a Global Imperative (Presentation) · 2013. 9. 20. · Energy...
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Dan E. ArvizuDirector, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Energy Sustainability as a Global Imperative
Presented at iCAST Colorado Tech Week
September 18, 2006
NREL/PR-100-40770
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Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging
We need a balanced portfolio of options
Uncertaintyand Risk
Uncertaintyand Risk
Energy SecurityEnergy SecurityEnergy Security Economic ProductivityEconomic Economic ProductivityProductivity
Environmental ImpactEnvironmental ImpactEnvironmental Impact
• Secure supply• Reliability•• SecureSecure supplysupply•• ReliabilityReliability • Growth in
demand• Price volatility
•• Growth in Growth in demanddemand
•• Price volatilityPrice volatility
• Land and water use• Emissions•• Land and water useLand and water use•• EmissionsEmissions
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Magnitude of Challenge RequiresGlobal Action and a Change in Trajectory
Source: Arvizu, NREL
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World Energy Supply andthe Role of Renewable Energy
Source: OECD/IEA, 2004
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0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)
GD
P Pe
r Cap
ita ($
000/
pers
on)
Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product
Poverty
Affluence
Burkina Faso
United Kingdom
Mexico
Bangladesh
China
Poland
South Korea
UnitedStates.
FranceJapan
El Salvador Russia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
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U.S. Energy Consumption andthe Role of Renewable Energy
Source: Energy Information Administration,Annual Energy Outlook 2006, Table D4
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Carbon and Energy Intensity
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
GDP (2000$)
Energy Intensity(BTU/$GDP)
Carbon Intensity(MTCO2/$GDP)
Source: Energy Information Administration, “Annual Energy Review 2005”, DOE/EIA-0384(2005), Table 1.5
Cha
nge
(Per
cent
)
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Technology-Based Solutions:There is no single or simple answer
• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy• Nonpolluting transportation
fuels • Separation and capture of
CO2 from fossil fuels• Next generation of nuclear
fission and fusion technology• Transition to smart, resilient,
distributed energy systems coupled with pollution-free energy carriers such as hydrogen and electricity
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Renewable Energy Costs Have Decreased Historical and Projected
Costs as percentage of 1980 levels
Source: NREL 2005, 2002
2006
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Renewable Energy Is GrowingEnergy-Tech InvestmentsPercent of Total U.S. Venture Capital
Renewable Energy Annual Growth Rates 2000-2004
Sources:Renewables 2005 Global Status Report, REN21Clean Energy Trends 2006, Nth Power LLC
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Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technology Development Programs
Efficient Energy Use• Vehicle
Technologies• Building
Technologies• Industrial
Technologies
Energy Delivery and Storage
• Electricity Transmission and Distribution
• Alternative Fuels • Hydrogen Delivery
and Storage
Renewable Resources• Wind• Solar• Biomass• Geothermal
NR
EL
R&
D P
ortfo
lio
Foundational Science
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Solar Photovoltaics
NREL Research Thrusts:• Higher efficiency devices • New nanomaterials applications• Advanced manufacturing
techniques
Status:• 450 MW• Cost 18-23¢/kWh
Potential:• 11-18¢/kWh by 2010• 5-10 ¢/kWh by 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, updated March 16, 2006
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Wind
Long Term Potential• 20% of the nation’s electricity supplyNREL Research Thrusts• Low wind speed technology• Distributed wind technology• Advanced rotor development• Utility grid integration
Today’s Status• 10,000 MW installed as of August
2006• Cost 6-9¢/kWh at good wind sitesDOE Cost Goals• 3.6¢/kWh, onshore at low wind sites
by 2012• 5¢/kWh, offshore in shallow water by
2014
Updated September 7, 2006Source: U.S. Department of Energy, American Wind Energy Association
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BiofuelsBiofuels status• Biodiesel – 75 million gallons
(2005)• Corn ethanol
– 81 commercial plants– 3.9 billion gallons (2005)– Today’s cost ~$1.35/gallon of
gasoline equivalent (gge)• Cellulosic ethanol
– Projected commercial cost ~$3.00/gge
NREL Research Thrusts• The Biorefinery • Solutions to under-utilized waste residues• Energy crops
Potential• 2012 goal – cellulosic ethanol ~$1.42/gge• 2030 goal – all ethanol = 30% of transportation fuels
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, National Biodiesel Board, Renewable Fuels Association
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Harnessing Innovation in Renewable EnergyScience and Technology:
The Future Promise• Supercomputers• Genomics• Nanoscience• Cellulosic and biofuels
applications• Hydrogen
Nano/Bio/Info
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NREL as a Resource for Economic Development
• Total FY05 Colorado contribution - $128 million • Partnerships with Colorado universities• Support for Colorado economic development
community• Education programs annually reach 25,000
teachers, students and consumers• NREL and staff contributed $135,000 to local
charitable organizations• Underwrote and designed first-ever Net Zero
Energy Habitat House in Wheat Ridge
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Renewable Energy:Enabling Economic Growth in Colorado
• Plentiful resources• Centers of Excellence• Business environment
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Renewable Energy: Getting There Involves…Technologies• Efficient buildings and vehicles• New biofuels• Clean generation• Storage
Policies• Predictable
and consistent
Markets• Infrastructure• First plant costs• Supplier/consumer
acceptance
ReducingRisk
ReducingRisk
Mobilizing Capital
Mobilizing Capital
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The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
Golden, ColoradoGolden, Colorado