Professor H. J. Schellnhuber CBEPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Joint International ConferenceKarlsruhe, 14 Oct 2009

Energy Supplyand Environmental Effects

0

100

200

300

400

500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Prim

ary

Ener

gy (E

J)

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Renewable

NuclearMicrochip

Steam motor

Gasolinetube

Commercial Nuclear

Television

aviation

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

World Primary Energy

Where Do the Emissions Come from?

1900 2000 2100

Glo

bally

aver

aged

war

min

g(º

C)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

B1

A1T

B2 A1B

A2

A1F

I

Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

Cooling Effect of Aerosols

Dangerous Warming Commitment

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

„Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangerswater resources“ (Kehrwald et al. 2008 Geophys Res Lett)

Accelerated Greenland Melt-Down

Box 1 Synthesis Report (Steffen and Huff 2009)

Melt of Greenland ice sheet contributes ~0.5 mm year-1 to total global meansea level rise of 3.1 mm year-1.

Nature, 24 Sep 2009

(Tarnocai et al. 2009 Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

Carbon Stored in Permafrost SoilsEstimates Corrected Upwards

The new estimate of frozen carbon stored in permafrost soils of the circumpolar region is over 1.5 trillion tons, about twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere.

Interdependency Between Tipping Points

(Kriegler et al. 2009 PNAS)

1. Washington R et al. Dust as a tipping element: The Bodélé Depression2. Malhi Y et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change

induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest3. Levermann A et al. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions4. Latif M et al. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming5. Notz D The big melt: Is the loss of ice sheets and Arctic sea ice unstoppable? 6. Riebesell U et al. Sensitivity of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change7. Archer D et al. Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global

carbon cycle8. Hofmann M et al. On the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation9. Molina M et al. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using Montreal Protocal

and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

PNAS Special Feature on Tipping Elements, December 2009

Editor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern

EU 2°C-Guardrail

Source: Synthesis Report (Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)

Updated Reasons for Concern

G8 and Emerging Economies Agree on 2°C Long-term Target

[ ]

Meinshausen et al. 2009aAllen et al. 2009

The probability of exceeding 2°C warming vs. CO2emitted in the first half of the 21st

century

Top•probabilities of exceeding 2°C of individual scenarios for illustrative default (small dots) and smoothed probabilities for all climate sensitivity distributions (numbered lines). •dashed line: proportion of carbon cycle model emulations exceeding 2°C•coloured areas: ranges of probabilities

Bottom•total CO2 emissions emitted 2000 - 2006 (grey area) • potential emissions from burning available fossil fuel reserves and from landuse

ti iti 2006 2049

„[…] the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions is approximatelyindependent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change […].

The world‘s CO2 budget

Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gt between 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 °C.

∫=2

1

)()(T

Tglobglob dttEpC

)()()()(

2

1 Mglob

Mnatglob

T

Tnatnat TM

TMpCdttEC == ∫

“World Formula” for Climate Policy

Total global CO2 budget in period[T1,T2] that keeps global warmingbelow 2°C with probability p

Integral over global profile of CO2 emissions

National CO2budget in [T1,T2]

Integral overnational emissionprofile

Fraction of global CO2 budgetas defined by ratio of national population Mnat to worldpopulation Mglob at time TM

“World Formula“ for Climate PolicyIllustration

Russia Germany

Remaining EuropeNigeria

Remaining Africa

United States Brazil

Mexico Remaining America

China

India

Indonesia Pakistan

Bangladesh Japan

Philippines

Vietnam

Remaining Asia

Australia/OceaniaOther

Share in world populationGlobal carbon budget National carbon budget

Inter-Temporal FlexibilityNational emission profiles respecting national CO2 budgets:

Scenario 2: Future responsibility approachT1 = 2010, T2 = 2050, TM = 2010, p = 2/3

CO2 emissions in 2008 (light green) and permissible average annual budgets (dark green) according to the WBGU approach for selected countries.

Examples of theoretical emission trajectories

Examples of equal per-capita emissions of selected countries for 2010 - 2050, without emissions trading. Trajectories start from current emission levels.

CO2 emissions by country

Per-capita CO2 emissions in 2005, differentiated by emission levels and country.

Examples of Per-Capita Emissions Paths of CO2 forThree Groups of Countries without Emissions Trading

Examples of Per-Capita Emissions Paths of CO2 forThree Groups of Countries with Emissions Trading

Source: WBGU Special Report 2009

Power sector capacity additions in the 450 Policy Scenario Power sector capacity additions in the 450 Policy Scenario --each year from 2012each year from 2012--2030.2030.

In the 450 Policy Scenario, all new generating capacity built afIn the 450 Policy Scenario, all new generating capacity built after 2012 is ter 2012 is ““carboncarbon--freefree”” –– and 15% of existing capacity is retired early.and 15% of existing capacity is retired early.

0 20 40 60

Solar and other renewables

Wind

Biomass and waste

Hydropower

Nuclear

Gas CCS

Coal CCS

GW

14 CCS coal14 CCS coal--fired plants (800 MW each)fired plants (800 MW each)

17 nuclear plants (1000 MW)17 nuclear plants (1000 MW)

8 CCS gas8 CCS gas--fired plants (500 MW)fired plants (500 MW)

2 Three Gorges dams2 Three Gorges dams

300 CHP plants (40 MW)300 CHP plants (40 MW)

16000 turbines (3 MW) 16000 turbines (3 MW)

© OECD/IEA - 2008

The Supply-side of Global Warming

Cumulative historic carbon consumption (1750-2004), estimated carbon stocks in the ground, and estimated future consumption (2005-2100) for business-as-usual (BAU) and ambitious 400-ppm-CO2-eq. scenario.

Source: Kalkuhl, Edenhofer and Lessmann 2009

13210655377139

2581581

154111154198

107

210

230

558

5616

2000

0

2000C

arbo

n st

ocks

(GtC

)

Conventional reserves Unconventional reserves Conventional resourcesUnconventional resources Cumulative historic use Projected use (400ppm)Coal+CCS (400ppm) Biomass+CCS (400ppm) Additional projected use (BAU)

I n

t h e

g

r o

u n

d I n

t h

e

a t

m o

s p

h e

r e

11372

Gas Oil Coal Biomass + CCS

The Great Transformation

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n[E

J]

CO2emissions

Negative CO2emissions

Based on IEA Data (1971-2005) and REMIND-R resultsfor 450ppm-eq (ADAM); Graphic by Steckel/Knopf (PIK)

REMIND-R, ADAM 450ppm-eq, 4/6/2009, Steckel/Knopf

35 38250

10

20

105 15 20 30

30

40

50

60

-10

-100

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

-90

Abatement cost€ per tCO2e

Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below €60 per tCO2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play.

Source: Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0

Exhibit 3.0.1

Lighting – switch incandescent to LED (residential)

Cropland nutrient management

Tillage and residue mgmt

1st generation biofuels

Clinker substitution by fly ashElectricity from landfill gas

Small hydroReduced slash and burn agriculture conversion

Reduced pastureland conversionGrassland management

Organic soil restoration

Pastureland afforestationNuclear

Degraded forest reforestationReduced intensive

agriculture conversion

Coal CCS new buildIron and steel CCS new build

Motor systems efficiency

Rice management

Cars full hybrid

Gas plant CCS retrofit

Solar PV

Waste recycling

High penetration wind

Low penetration wind

Residential electronics

Residential appliances

Retrofit residential HVAC

Insulation retrofit (commercial)

Power plant biomass co-firing

Geothermal

Coal CCS retrofit

Degraded land restoration

Abatement potentialGtCO2e per year

Solar CSPBuilding efficiency

new build

2nd generation biofuels

Efficiency improvements other industry

Insulation retrofit (residential)

Cars plug-in hybrid

Global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual – 2030

Plus Energy House

•Möglichkeiten im Neubau ausschöpfen:Technologien sinnvoll koppeln, Technologien weiterentwickeln

Terrestrial Heat

Power HeatCoupling

CoolingSystem

Tempering of Building Components

Sun Protection

Storage

Source: REHAU AG + Co.

Solarthermics &Photovoltaic

On the Road to theAll-Electric Vehicle

e.g., Chevy Volt – launch targeted 2010

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) The All-ElectricVehicle Infrastructure

Battery exchange stations(> 100 mile driving range)

Charging points

AtmosphericCarbon Extraction!

Wildcard # 1

Historical Energy R & D Trends

The R&D effort was more centralized and concentrated, including a significant focus on nuclear technologies

R&D Spending: IEA Countries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

$ bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100$/bbl

Energy Efficiency Fossil Fuels RenewablesNuclear Fission & Fussion Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Other Power & StorageOther Research Oil Price (Right)

Source: IEA

History of US Federal Government R&DHistory of US Federal Government R&D

JFK ApolloProgram

Carter EnergyProgram

Reagan “Star Wars” Program

Homeland Security

MILESTONES of the Great TransformationAn effective and just global agreement on climate change

A low carbon infrastructure

Forest protection, conservation and restoration

„[…] we should confine the temperature rise to 2°C to avoid unmanageable climaterisks. This can only be achieved

• with a peak of global emissions of all greenhouse gases by 2015

• at least a 50% emission reduction by 2050 on a 1990 baseline. […] developedcountries have to aim for a 25-40% reduction by 2020.

[…] a total carbon budget […] should be accepted as the base for measuring theeffectiveness of short-term (2020) and long-term (2050) targets“

Issued in London, 9 July 1955

Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein

The Russell-Einstein Manifesto

“Many warnings have been uttered by eminent men of science […] We have not yet found that the views of

experts on this question depend in any degree upon their politics or prejudices. They depend only […] upon the extent of the particular expert's knowledge. We have

found that the men who know most are the most gloomy.”