Energy security and environmental concerns: By Chandrabhushan
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Transcript of Energy security and environmental concerns: By Chandrabhushan
Centre for Science and Environment
India’s energy security: Prospects for the future
Centre for Science and EnvironmentNew Delhi
Chandra BhushanAssociate Director
Centre for Science and Environment
India at present
Coal67166
Gas11840
Diesel1196
Hydro30135
Nuclear2720
Wind2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW
• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh
• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh
• Electrification rate: 44.4%
• Population with electricity: 466 million
• Population without electricity: 583 million
• Coal dominant energy source (58%)
Ministry of Power, Government of India
Centre for Science and Environment
Plans for the future
• India needs sustained economic growth > 8% to radically improve its HDI
• Growth hampered by infrastructure: electric power– Peak shortfall– Average shortfall– High T&D Losses:
• At 8% economic growth by 2015:• Installed Capacity: 250 GW• Generation: = 1500 billion
kWh• Per Capita Consumption:
1000 kWh
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.
Centre for Science and Environment
The Task Ahead
• Need to add 135 GW in ten years
– 13,500 MW required per annum
– ~ One power plant per month
– Maximum added till now is 4,600 MW (One in four months)
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Annual added capacity
Total Capacity addition required
Centre for Science and Environment
Fuel Supply: Options for Future
• Coal– Conventional– Supercritical– FBC– Gasification
• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear• Wind
– On-shore– Off-shore
• Biomass• Solar
– Photo voltaic– Concentrating Solar Power
Fuel Present In 2015
Coal 67,166 MW ?
Gas 11,840 MW ?
Hydro 30,135 MW ?
Nuclear 2,720 MW ?
Wind 2,488 MW ?
Biomass 1,000 MW ?
Solar - ?
TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW
Centre for Science and Environment
Coal
• Reserves– Proven 91 billion Tons– Indicated 116 billion
Tons– Inferred 37 billion Tons– TOTAL 245 billion Tons
• Coal reserves > 250 years at present levels of consumption
• Concentrated in Eastern India – mostly in forested tribal areas
Madhya Pradesh
7%
Others13%
Jharkhand29%
Chattisgarh16%
West Bengal11%
Orissa24%
Centre for Science and Environment
Issues with Indian coal
• High ash: 25%-45%
• Low sulfur < 0.5%
• Low energy content
• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh
• Issues with coal:
– Ash disposal: annual ash generation > 120 million tonne
– CO2 emissions: 360 million tonne
– Water consumption: 83,000 mld (avg. 80 m3/Mwh)
– NOx, SOx, Particulate, Mercury
– Land degradation, groundwater contamination
Heating Value
(BTU/lb)
Ash Content
(%)
Sulfur
(%)
USA Coal 11500 5-10% .5-3.5%
Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5
Centre for Science and Environment
Coal: Future Scenarios
Projections of coal demand (2015): – Demand: 580 MT– Domestic production will not be
enough. Imports needed– Projected to spend $6 billion a year
importing coal by 2015– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail
transportation stagnationIssues:
– Ash generation > 200 million tonne– CO2 emissions > 850 million tonne– Water consumption: 110,000 mld– NOx, SOx, Particulate, Mercury– Land degradation, groundwater
contamination– Forest diversion, biodiversity– Displacement, resettlement and
rehabilitation
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Coa
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Coal Transport by Railways
Business as Usual
Accelerated growth scenario
INDIA STILL HAS NO COMMITMENT
FOR C02 REDUCTION.
BUT AFTER 2012 ???
Centre for Science and Environment
Hydro-Electricity
• Inferred potential ~ 150 GW• Installed capacity: 30 GW • Most big potential are in North-
Eastern states and in Uttaranchal, HP and J&K
• Area submerged under large dams so far approx. 375, 000 Sq. km.
• People displaced by large dams appox. 56 million
• Forest area diverted/ submerged 4.5-9.1 million hectare
• Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects
• Environmental issues• Water sharing agreements with
neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
Plans add max. 10,000 MW by 2015
Centre for Science and Environment
Natural Gas
• Fastest growing primary fuel in India– Consumption: > 31 BCM/year– Primary uses:
Power 41%Fertilizer 32%Sponge Iron 4%Other 23%
– Growing needs for transportation (and cooking)– Started importing gas from 2004 onwards– With 0.5% of global gas reserve, and consumption likely to
increase, we will have to depend on imported gas– Problems with privatizing domestic gas finds
Centre for Science and Environment
Natural Gas Pipelines
Indore
- onwards to India
TAPS
TAPS(across water)
CENTGAS
- to Pakistan
Indore
Baroda333333333
KarachiGwadar
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Gas supplyConsumptioncenter
New Delhi
Multan
1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar
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Pakistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
QatarIndia
Oman
Gas Authority of India Limited
India’s Gas Pipelines
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
Centre for Science and Environment
Natural gas viability
• Will depend on affordability
• Internationally, price of natural gas is rising because of its being a clean fuel and less Carbon-intensive
• For India, gas is a geo-political issue
Centre for Science and Environment
Biomass
• Predominantly agricultural country.• Annual production of agro-forest and
processing residues: 350 million tons• Power generation potential > 22,000 MW• Advantages:
– Decentralized generation: close to rural load centers.
– Huge potential to generate rural income in agro-forestry in wasteland
– Technology reasonably well developed– No net CO2 emissions
• Disadvantages:– Collection and storage– Competing users in case of agro-
residue and fuel wood (mainly poor)– Diversion of fertile land if not properly
monitored– Loss of organic fertilizer on land– Emissions and water consumption
Feedstock Examples Potential Installed
Agro-forest residues
Wood chips, mulberry, coconut shells
17,000 MW 50 MW
Processing residues
Rice husk, sugarcane bagasse
5,000 MW 1000 MW
- Up to 3000 MW can be added based on bagasse and husk by 2015
- For plants based of wood, latent period of 10 years is required (but biomass is a poor converter of solar energy only 1-3%)
Centre for Science and Environment
Wind Energy
• Gross potential : 45,000 MW• Technical potential : 20,000
MW (grid connected)
• Rapid growth in installed capacity from 1990s
• India ranks 5th in the world– Present installed capacity ~ 3000 MW– Economically competitive
• Problems:– Low average load factor~16%– New generation, larger wind mills not
introduced (5 MW)– Offshore potential not exploited
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World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)
Centre for Science and Environment
Wind potential
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US
Centre for Science and Environment
Nuclear Power: The Present Status
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Centre for Science and Environment
Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status
• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under commission
• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR)
• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction
• Track record on capacity delivery very poor
• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40 years
• Very costly
• Most water intensive
• Cost of decommissioning of facility similar to cost of construction
• Radioactive waste disposal – no solution so far
Centre for Science and Environment
Indian Nuclear Program: The Present Status
• Indo-US Nuclear Deal: Hostage to international relations and changing international politics
• That too for only 30 GW out of 135 GW till 2015.
• From where will the water come??
• Where will the wastes go??
• How much will be the cost??
• Is this deal is for energy security or something else?
• In global politics, it makes India more insecure
Centre for Science and Environment
Solar energy
• Solar energy equivalent to 180-watt bulb perpetually lighting-up every sq.m. on earth.
• Most parts of India has 250 sunny days in the year (some parts have more than 300 days)
• The entire energy demand of India till 2030 can be met by a solar farm (with existing efficiency of 10%) of 10,000 sq. km. area.
• This is one-third of the area of Barmer district or 0.33% of India’s total land area.
• We have already submerged approx. 375,000 Sq. km. behind dams.
Centre for Science and Environment
Solar energy
• But we are still experimenting with solar cooker and solar lighting.
• Solar energy is a chicken and egg story – so was computers and so was all existing technology
• That’s where public expenditure comes in to kick-start technology – private sector will wait till it becomes economically competitive – till the end of hydrocarbons age (or atleast oil age)
Centre for Science and Environment
Solar energy
• Need to move on both Solar PV and Solar TPP.
• Solar TPP operating in Mojave desert in the US since early 1980s has solar to electricity efficiency of 20% for 10 hours daily.
• New generation PV’s are reaching efficiency of 15%
• In short-medium term move towards hybrid solar-clean coal – gas system
• Or use solar to generate hydrogen and then convert hydrogen to electricity – get rid of timing problem
• Hydrogen generated can also be used for mobility
Centre for Science and Environment
India’s energy and environmental future
• In long-term: mix of Clean coal, biomass, biofuel, wind, solar and run-off the river hydropower – all available within country
• Convert residual energy to hydrogen to meet peaking demand and also fuel demand
• To do it, we have to start investing from today.
• Investments made today will have repercussions for the next 50 years – we will have to live with it.
• Start regulating end-use of energy (mandatory introduction of energy saving equipments)
• The ones who invest in energy saving technologies and renewable energies today will be the economic winners of tomorrow.