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Health and Energy Policy Roundtable & Workshop February 12, 2013

Prof Colin D Butler Energy policy, climate change, and health

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Technological lock in due to hubris and inequality

Unmet demand

Peak oil, climate change, health .. the sustainability of civilisation

Solutions

Summary

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Unmet electricity need

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Unmet clean energy need

Most electricity is not clean

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(IH

D)

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Indoor air pollution

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Censored!

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

exajoules

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

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Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures &Institutions

The QWERTY Phenomenon

SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 )

10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy

9Hurricane Sandy 2012

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Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.

Apparent production cap

2005: Plateau Oil

Production (million barrels/day)

Oil price (US$ per barrel)

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$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America

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Million barrels per day

Kerr (2012) – from Int’l Energy Agency(adapted)

Low net energy – extra high GHG

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Natural gas liquids

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Oil Watch: “Drill Baby Drill”, 2013

Production effort mismatch

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Parveen Parmar, MD examines a 25-year-old refugee at Kutupalong unofficial camp... no food for two days: “Now I am dying. No one brings

food to this camp. What will my wife and child do when I die?” (Physicians for Human Rights)

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climate change and health

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despair, economic loss, exposure to asbestos,

mould

40.3o 7.1.13; 40.2o 8.1.13

Bundaberg 25.1.13

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Extreme events – i.e. climate change?

Oil priceUS$/barrel

Food price (indexed)

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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought

US droughts

Butler

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Wise TA. The Cost to Developing Countries of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion: Tufts University; 2012.

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Russian-Roulette Chance (p = 5/6) of Holding 2°C-Line:

Negative Emissions after 2070 !

Adapted fromSchellnhuber, 2009

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Tipping points in the Earth’s eco-social system

Rwanda 1994 Boat

people1788

Surplus people

B/desh

2050?

2015? 20

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Time until obvious

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies.

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-

scale migration, economic collapse

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Butler Climate Change and Global Health, CABI, UK, in press

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Crisis = opportunity

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Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Solar (1975-20072007-10)

NUCLEAR

US$/kwH(2005

dollars)

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“Rising risk prices out new coal-fired plants” 7.2.13

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Clean energy investment

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India: planning 455 new coal plants

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Proposed National Renewable Grid 30

stewardship, courage, hope sensitise and then inspire community