Energy Planning

B. Batidzirai

Purpose of energy planning

Develop a plan of action for matching supplies to changing demandsPromote sustainable development at the least cost to the economy and environment

Slide 1a

Purpose of energy planningPurpose – donzvo/vavariroEnergy – mhando dzemoto, simba nemafutaPlanning - hurongwaEnergy planning – hurongwa hwekuti mhando dzemoto, simbanemafuta zvinodiwa nenyika zviwanikwe zvakakwanaDevelop - gadziraplan of action – hurongwa hwekuita chinhumatching - kuenzanisa zvinhu (zvifanane)supplies - huwandu hwezvinhu zvinogona kuwanikwa nevanhuDemands – huwandu hwezvinhu zvinodiwa nevanhusustainable development – budiriro inohungwaru (isingaunzikutambura kune rimwe boka revanhu, kuparadzwakwezviwanikwa, uye inoita kuti vachazouya mumashurevakwanise kugara zvakanakawo)least cost - mutengo wakaderera/wepasieconomy - upfumi hwenyikaenvironment - nharaunda (kunyanya zviwanikwa zvirimunharaunda)

Slide 1b

Overview

Planning encompasses the establishment of goals, policies, and procedures concerning future energy demand and supply It is a decision making process divided into: – Energy end use evaluation– Demand forecasting– Supply evaluation and forecasting– Energy Technology Assessment– Economic Analysis– Environmental Analysis– Cross cutting issues Slide 2a

OverviewEncompasses - zvinosanganisiraEstablishment – kudzika; Goals - vavariroPolicies – zvinotevedzwa nehurumende pakuita zvirongwa zvayoprocedures – mafambisirwo ezvinhu; Future – munguva iri kuuyadecision making - Kudzika gwara rinofamba nezvinhu zvichibvapakuronga nekupana mazano ehungwaruprocess – inzira yekugadzirisa zvinhu (kana chinhu)end use – kushandiswa kunoita chinhuforecasting – kuwongorora zvinotarisirwa kuitika nguva iri kuuyaEvaluation/ Assessment - wongororoEnergy Technology – mhando dzemoto, simba nemafuta(kusanganisira midziyo inoshandiswa nadzo)Economic Analysis – wongororo yezvemariEnvironmental Analysis – wongorora yezvezviwanikwa zvirimunharaundaCross cutting issues – dzimwewo nyaya dzakakosha

Slide 2b

Steps in planning

demand evaluationIdentification of relevant alternative optionsAssessing and comparing optionsAppraising optionsSelecting and implementing options

Slide 3a

Steps in planning

Steps - zvinhanhoIdentification – kutsvakaAlternative – zvimwe zvingashandiswa pachinzvimbochezviripoOption – chinhu chingasarudzwa kugadzirisa dambudzikokana kufambisa basa rinoda kuitwaAssessing - kuwongororacomparing – kufananidza Appraising – kuwongorora Selecting - kusarudzaimplementing – kuparura (kuita zvakarongwa)

Slide 3b

Energy end-use surveys

Objectives:To provide data from which the existing patterns of energy consumption for different end-uses for domestic consumption and productive activities are determined, To assess the needs, priorities and socio-cultural preferences of the (consumers) intended beneficiariesTo provide an initial assessment of available energy resources and technologies

Slide 4a

Energy end-use surveysSurvey – wongororo yezviri kuitika munyika kana nharaundadata - ruzivo kana umboo hwakarongeka hunoshandiswapakuronga kana pakutsvaka mazano anobatsira pakurongaexisting – zviripo/zviri kutora nzvimbo iye zvinopatterns – tsika dzinotevedzwa nevanhu pakuita chinhu(somuenzaniso mashandisiro avanoita huni)consumption – huwandu hwezvinoshandiswa nevanhu(sehuwandu hwehuni dzinoshandiswa pakubika)end-use – kushandiswa kunoita chinhu; domestic - zvemudzimba

Slide 4b

Energy end-use surveysproductive activities – mabasa anopa mari; Needs – zvidiso zvevanhupriorities - zvinonyanyokosheswasocio-cultural – zvetsika nemagariro evanhupreferences – zvinodiwa nevakawandaConsumers – vanoshandisa chinhu intended beneficiaries – vanobatsirwa nechirongwainitial - pekutangaTechnologies – zvinoshandiswa nemhando dzemoto nemafuta(kusanganisira midziyo inoshandiswa)energy resources – panobva mhando dzemoto, simba nemafuta(semaratya, zuva, miti, mhepo, mafuta)

Slide 4c

Energy Demand Forecasting

Projections for energy demand are conducted for – non-productive energy services needs (e.g.

domestic i.e. cooking, heating and lighting) and

– the productive energy services needs (including industrial, mining, agricultural)

Slide 5a

Energy Demand Forecasting

Projections – zvinotarisirwa kuitika munguva iri kuuyaenergy demand – huwandu hwemhando dzemoto, simbanemafuta zvinodiwa nevanhunon-productive – mabasa asingapi marienergy services – mabasa anogona kuitwa nekuburikidzanekushandisa mhando dzemoto, simba nemafuta (sekubika)needs – zvidisoCooking – kubika zvekudya; heating – kudziya moto; lighting –kuona usiku nemwenje productive – mabasa anopa mariIndustrial – zvine chekuita nezvekugadzirwa zvinhuMining – kuchera migodhi yendarama, simbi nezvimwezvicherwaAgricultural – zvine chekuita nezvekurima Slide 5b

Domestic Energy Demand Forecasting

Domestic sector energy needs may be projected by taking into account:– existing consumption patterns, – substitution possibilities and – using norms, e.g. per capita energy

consumption assumptions, increase of population growth, changes in income

Slide 6a

Domestic Energy Demand Forecasting

Domestic sector – mudzimbasubstitution – kushandisa chimwe chinhu pachinzvimbochechimwepossibilities – zvinokwanisika kuitikaNorms – zviero zvinoshandiswa kuenzanisa zvinhu (nguva zhinjizvakabvumiranwa munyika kana pasi rese)e.g. – somuenzanisoper capita – pamunhu wega wegaAssumptions – zvifungidziroincrease – kuwandapopulation – kuwanda kwevanhu munyikaGrowth – mawandiro (kana makuriro) anoita chinhu, changes – sandukoIncome – mari inowanikwa nevanhu pavanoshanda Slide 6b

Productive Sector Energy Demand Forecasting

Projections for energy requirements for productive sector is more complex and takes into account:existing and proposed sectoral development activities and programmes and ongoing and proposed programmes development programmes e.g. energy requirements for agricultural sector over a selected planning period have to take into account existing and proposed cropping patterns, level of farm mechanization, irrigation requirements, pre and post-harvesting operations, fertilizer requirements, etc

Slide 7a

Productive Sector Energy Demand Forecasting

requirements – zvinodiwa nevanhuproductive sector – bazi rinoita mabasa anopa maricomplex – zvakaoma kuzvinzwisisatakes into account – kutarisawo zvimwe pawongororoExisiting – zviripo; proposed – zvichada kuitwasectoral – zvemapazi akasiyasiyanaactivities – mabasa ari kuitwa kana achaitwaprogrammes - zvirongwa ; ongoing – zviri kuitika iye zvinoselected – zvakasarudzwa;

Slide 7b

Productive Sector Energy Demand Forecasting

period – nguva iri kuitika chinhucropping patterns – marimiro anoitwa kusanganisira mbesadzinorimwalevel - udzamu; farm - purazi; mechanization – kushandiswa kwemichina (pakurima); irrigation – kudiridzira; pre – chinhu chisati chaitika; post –chinhu chaitika;harvesting – kukohwa; post-harvesting – zvinoitwa kana kukohwa kwapera; operations – mashandiro; fertilizer - mufudze

Slide 7c

Energy demand forecasting tools

various methods are available for projecting energy demand including basic and sophisticated models Computer software packages for energy demand projections are also now e.g. LEAP

Slide 8a

Energy demand forecasting tools

various – zvakasiyana siyanamethods – nzira dzekuita chinhubasic – zvinokwanisika kushandiswa kana kunzwisisikanevanhu vazhinji (vasiri nyanzvi)sophisticated – zvakaoma kunzwisisa kana kushandisamodels (tools) – nzira dzinoshandiswa kuwongorora zvichaitikanguva iri kuuya nepakurongaComputer – mushina wemazuva ano unoshandiswa kubatsirakuwongorora zvinhu zvingatora nguva yakareba kana zvichiitwanemunhu (nemavoko), unoshandiswa zvakare pakunyora, nepakuchengetedza magwarosoftware packages – zvinyorwa zvinoshandiswa nemuchinawe’computer’ kuti vanhu vakakwanise kuushandisa

Slide 8b

Energy Supply Assessment

Assessment of all available energy resources over the planning horizon, including:– commercial sources of energy - electricity,

petroleum products, coal-based products (inclimports),

– non-commercial energy resources, which include traditional biomass resources - firewood, agricultural residues, manure and animal power,

– renewable energy resources - wind, hydro, biomass

requires detailed studies Slide 9a

Energy Supply Assessment Assessment – wongororo; planning horizon – nguva ichatorwa kuzadzikisa zvinengezvarongwacommercial – zvine mari mukati (zvinotengwa nemari)sources – dura rechinhu; Electricity – magetsipetroleum products– mhando dzemafuta akafana nepeturoneparafinicoal-based products – zvinhu zvinogadzirwa nemaratya; Imports – zvinotengwa kubva kunze kwenyika

Slide 9b

Energy Supply Assessment non-commercial – zvisingade mari mukati (zvisingatengwinemari)traditional – zvagara zvichishandiswa (kana kuitwa) kubva karenakarebiomass resources – mhando dzemoto dzinobva muzvipenyuzvinosanganisira miti (huni) nemhuka (ndove) nezvirimwa(nzimbe) nemashangaFirewood – huni; agricultural residues – mashanga ezvirimwa; manure – ndove; animal power – kurima nemombe kana mbongororenewable energy resources – kunobva mhando dzemoto, simba nemafuta zvisingaperi kunyange zvichishandiswa(sesimba rezuva, remhepo neremvura inoyerera)Wind – simba remhepo; hydro – simba remvura inoyererera;detailed studies - wongororo yakadzama

Slide 9b

Energy Technologies Assessment

It is also necessary to conduct assessment of: – energy conversion technologies for each resource,– energy conversion technologies for matching different end-

uses, – availability of the corresponding energy resource options for

different periods of the planning horizon. assessment should include conversion efficiencies, performance criteria, operational features and other appropriate technical characteristics of each technology option. Only commercially available or potentially available technologies during the planning horizon, should be considered.

Slide 10a

Energy Technologies Assessmentnecessary – zvakakosha kuitwa/kuvapoconversion – kusandura kubva mune chimwe chimiro kuendamune chimwetechnologies – michina inoshandiswa kusandura mhandodzemoto nemafuta kuti zvishandisikematching – kufananidza; different – zvakasiyana;availability – kuvapo kwechinhu chichikwanisa kushandiswanevanhu; corresponding – zvinoenderanaconversion efficiencies – Huwandu hwemafuta, maratya, huninemhando dzesimba zvinosandurwa nemidziyo kama michinakuita dzimwewo mhando dzesimba kana moto zvinogonakushandiswa

Slide 10b

Energy Technologies Assessmentperformance – mashandiro anoita muchina; criteria – zvingashandiswa semurawu pakuenzanisazvinhu (semashandiro emuchina) kana pakubudisapfungwa zvakarongekaoperational – pakushanda (kwechinhu semuchina); features/ characteristics – zvinhu zvinowanikwapachinhu izvo zvingashandiswa kuchipatsanura kunezvimwe kana zvingashandiswa kutsananguramamiriro achinhuappropriate – zvakakodzera; technical – zvine chekuita nemashandiro emuchina;potentially available – zvingangovapo nguva pfupi irikuuyacommercially available – zvava kutengeswa Slide 10b

Economic Analysis

Includes evaluation (for each energy option) of:– The delivered energy cost,– the investment cost of resources and

technology, (based on assumptions of the life cycle for the option, and discount rate),

– the operating and maintenance costs,– the transportation and distribution cost– Tariffs

Slide 11a

Economic AnalysisEconomic – zvemari nehupfumidelivered – zvinenge zvaunzwa kuvanhuCost -mutengoinvestment – mari inoshandiswa kutenga chinhu kana kuitachinhulife cycle – upenyu hwese hwechinhu kubva chichigadzirwakusvikira charaswadiscount rate – mutengo wemari yekukweretaoperating (costs) - mari inopambadzwa pakushandisa chinhu(ungave muchina) sekubhadhara munhu anotekenya muchinawacho nemari yemagetsi anoshandiswa nemuchinamaintenance costs – mari inoshandiswa kuchigadzirisa chinhunguva nenguva (semuchina) kuti chisafa, chishande zvakanakauye kana chafatransportation and distribution cost – mari yekutakura zvinhunekuzviunza kuvanhu vanoda kuzvishandisaTariffs – mitengo inodzikwa nehurumende Slide 11b

Environmental Analysis

Environmental impacts of options needs to be evaluated, Impact mitigation costs (e.g. emission control investments), should be evaluated. If quantification is not possible, some classification of the different options may be made in regard to their environmental implications, including the trade-offs between the impact of the option on the local environment and the global and regional environment Slide 12a

Environmental AnalysisEnvironmental – zvine chekuita nezviwanikwa zvirimunharaundaImpacts - zvinokonzerwa nekuitika kwechinhumitigation – kuderedza kukanganisika kwechinhuemission – tsvina inorasirwa kana kurasikira munharaundacontrol – kudziviriraquantification – kutsvaka huwandu hwechinhuclassification – kuisa mumapokaenvironmental implications – zvingaitike kunharaundanezviwanikwa (kunyanya mvura, mweya wekufema) mushuremekuitika kwechimwe chinhutrade-offs – kuregera zvimwe zvaungade kuti uwane zvimwewozvakakoshawo pachinzvimbo chazvolocal environment – nharaunda nezviwanikwa zviri mairiglobal – zvepasi reseregional – zvenyika dziri mudunhu rimwe chete Slide 12b

Slide 13a

Slide 13b

Economy wide - zveupfumi hwenyika yeseindicators – zviratidzoeconomic planning – kuronga nezveupfumiEnergy supply sectors – mapazi anowunzira vanhu mhandodzemoto, simba nemafutasector – bazi rehurumendeRural – maruwarural development – budiriro yemaruwaCompilation – kuumba magwaro (kuunganidza zvinyorwamugwaro)micro-level – zvinoitwa zvichibva muvanhu vemumatunhumacro-level – zvinoitwa zvichinangana nenyika yeseresource – zvinoshandiswa kuti chirongwa chibudirire (sengemari, unyanzvi, michina) Micro-region – dunhu diki diki (fanika bhuku)

Other issues

The final operational plan may differ from the optimal plan,as it may incorporate non-quantifiables to capture socio-economic, cultural, and ecological values Appropriate national policy objectives may be suitably incorporated in the final plan, e.g. by favouring those options employment generation, improving the balance of payments, protection of the environment, etc. The final plan should provide feasible targets for different energy options which effectively meet the energy needs development, given physical and financial resources constraints, technology systems, and non-quantifiable socio-economic, cultural and environmental parameters.

Slide 14a

Other issuesfinal – zvekupedzisira; operational plan – hurongwa hunoshandiswa pakuita basaoptimal plan – hurongwa hwakaisvonaka; incorporate – kuisa chinhu pakati pezvimwe (kana kuwedzerachinhu pane zvimwe zvagara zviripo)non-quantifiables – zvisingagoni kuonekwa huwandu hwazvocapture – kusanganisirasocio-economic – zvemagariro evanhu nezveupfumiCultural – zvetsika dzevanhuecological – zvekuchengetedza zviwanikwavalues – zvinokosheswa nevanhu vakasiyana

Slide 14b

Other issuesAppropriate – zvakakodzeranational – zvenyika yesepolicy objectives – vavariro yezvinotevedzwa nehurumendepakuita zvirongwa zvayoemployment generation – zvinoita kuti mabasa avepoimproving – kunatsiridzabalance of payments – kubhadhara zvikwereti zvenyikaProtection – kuchengetedza (sezviwanikwa zvenyika) feasible – zvinokwanisika kuitwaTargets – zvisungo zvinofanirwa kuitwa nechirongwa (kana kuwonekwa kana chirongwa chaitwa) Physical – zvinobatikafinancial resources – mari inogona kushandiswaconstraints – zvimhingamupinyiparameters – zvinoshandiswa kupima huwandu hwezvinhu

Slide 14b