Energy Perspectives 2017 - Equinor...Source: History (IEA), projections (Statoil EP17, IEA WEO16,...
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Energy Perspectives 2017 Long-term macro and market outlook Press seminar, Oslo, 8 June 2017 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist
Transcript of Energy Perspectives 2017 - Equinor...Source: History (IEA), projections (Statoil EP17, IEA WEO16,...
Energy Perspectives 2017Long-term macro and market outlookPress seminar, Oslo, 8 June 2017Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist
Macro and market outlook to 2050 – www.statoil.com/energyperspectives
Energy Perspectives 2017
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3
Significant uncertainty and large changes… calling for the use of scenarios
Supply and demand factors Index, 2000=1
Source: The Economist Source: World Bank, IEA, IRENA, EIA
0
10
20
30
2000 2005 2010 2015
World solarcapacity
US shale gas prod.
Chinese int.tourists
Renewableelectricity gen.
Chinese airpassengers
China roadvehicle/captia
Chinese el.consumption/capita
Indian roadvehicles/capita
Indian el.consumption/capita
2015 value:189
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Classification: Internal ©
Statoil ASA
Three different tales of the future towards 2050
Rivalry
Reform
Renewal
Local/national permissive focus
Constructive market rule
Destructive market rule
Market-driven
Policy-driven
Global precautionary focus
• Energy supply
security concerns
• Local pollution
concerns
None are BAU – Renewal a tremendous challenge, Rivalry unpleasant
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Economic growth varies over time and across the scenarios
Global GDP 2-2.6 times higher in 2050, Renewal highest, Rivalry lowest
GDP growth
Average annual % change
World GDP and energy demandIndex, 1990=100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Reform
Renewal
Rivalry
Source: IEA (historical demand), UN (Population/historical GDP), Statoil (projections)
World GDP growth rates%
0
1
2
3
4
5
'90-'0
0
'00-'1
0
'10-'2
0
'20-'3
0
'30-'4
0
'40-'50
Reform Renewal Rivalry
0
1
2
3
4
5
'90-'0
0
'00-'1
0
'10-'2
0
'20-3
0
'30-'40
'40-'5
0
GDP growth rate per capitaPopulation growth
Per capita growth
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Statoil ASA
Key #1: Energy efficiency improvementReform, and especially Renewal: step change in global energy efficiency
Energy intensityIndex, 1990=100
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
World energy demand per fuelBillion toe
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reform Renewal Rivalry
0
10
20
30
Ref Ren Riv
Coal Oil
Gas Nuclear
Hydro Biomass
New Renewables Unchanged EI decline
20501990 2014
7
Key #2: Speeding up the change in global energy mix
Renewal global energy mix%
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
Reform global energy mix%
… with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift
Rivalry global energy mix%
20
28
23
6
3
1110
0
10
20
30
40
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
10
23
19
11
4
1419
0
10
20
30
40
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
25
32
22
52
95
0
10
20
30
40
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
GasCoal HydroBiomass Nuclear New RESOil
8
Source: visualnews
A strong trend affecting economics and energyAll growth in energy demand in emerging economies, in particular in Asia
World energy demand per regionBillion toe
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ref Ren Riv
Rest of world India China
OECD Pacific European Union OECD Americas
1990 20502014
The global population centre is in Asia
If the world were a village of 100 people…
Source: IEA, Statoil (projections)
12 Europeans
61 Asians
13 Africans
13 Americans
1 Oceanian
9
CO2 emissions determined by demand and mix
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
Policies, markets, and technology having varying impact
World CO2 emissionsBillion tons
World CO2 emissionsBillion tons
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ref Ren Riv
Rest of world India China
OECD Pacific European Union OECD Americas
20501990 2014
1990 2010 2030 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
IEA NP
Renewal
Reform
IEA 450
Rivalry
Cumulative CO2
emissions in
Renewal 2015-50:
848 Gt
IEA 66% chance of 2oC
10
Technology shift for light duty vehicles
Light duty vehicle fleet composition
Billions
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
Sales light duty vehicles
Millions
… in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal
Fuel mix for LDVs
Million toe
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Ref Ren Riv
Electricity Biomass Gas Oil
2014 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ref Ren Riv
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Other Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles Diesel
Gasoline
20502014
0
1
2
3
Ref Ren Riv
Other Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles Diesel
Gasoline
20502014
11
Decarbonise electricity, and go electric13-doubling of wind, 39-doubling of solar generation in Renewal
Solar and wind generation
Thousand TWh (left), % (right)
0
10
20
30
40
0
5
10
15
20
Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv
Solar Wind Electricity share of TFC %
20502014 2030
Electricity generation mix%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv
Geothermal Solar Wind
Biomass Hydro Nuclear
Gas Oil Coal
20502014 2030
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
12
Oil and gas dominate in other sectors… contributing to maintaining demand for fossil fuels
Fuel mix in final energy demand for residential,
commercial & industrial sectors Btoe
Fuel mix in final energy demand for transport
excluding LDVsBtoe
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv
Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Coal
2014 2050
0
3
6
9
Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv
Heat Electricity New RES Biomass Gas Oil Coal
2014 205020302030
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
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Global oil and gas demand growth variesDepending on scenario – but non-energy demand growth is significant
Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)
7
-30
30
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Reform Renewal Rivalry
Power & Heat
Non-Energy
Other Transport
Maritime
Aviation
LDV
Others
Total change
Change in oil demand 2014-2050Mbd
Change in gas demand 2014-2050Bcm
1 100
-480
1 170
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Reform Renewal Rivalry
14
Huge investments needed in oil in all scenarios
Source: Statoil
…to replace production and satisfy demand
Cumulative oil demand gap 2015-50, compared Billion barrels
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Cumulative oildemand 2015-
50
USA Opec Norway
Saudi Arabia
Potential legacy production
Renewal add-on
Reform add-on
Rivalry add-on
Norway
USA
Opec
Demand range
Decline range
Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil demand and supply from existing fields
Million barrels per day
Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history)
Cumulative production 1980-2015
15
…and the same is the case for gas
Source: Statoil
…to replace production and satisfy demand
Gas demand and supply from existing fields Billion cubic meters
Demand range
Decline range
Production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cumulativegas demand
2015-50
USA Russia Middle East Norway
US
Potential legacy production
Renewal add-on
Rivalry add-on
Reform add-on
Norway
ME
Russia
Cumulative gas demand gap 2015-50, compared Trillion cubic meters
Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history)
Cumulative production 1980-2015
16
Wide outcome space for oil and gas demand
Oil demand
Million barrels per day
Gas demand Billion cubic meters
* Includes biofuels
1990 2010 2030 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2010 2030 2050
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Renewal
Reform
Rivalry
IHS Autonomy
Ener-green BP
EIA*
XOM
IEA NP
IEA 450
IEA 66% 2o
Source: History (IEA), projections (Statoil EP17, IEA WEO16, EIA AEO16, IHS Energy-Wide Perspectives 2017, XOM 2017 Outlook for Energy, BP EO17, Enerdata 2017 - Understanding
our Energy Future)
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