Energy outlook pp ramon sanchez

U.S. Energy Outlook

Ramon Sanchez ([email protected]) Harvard University

April 4, 2012

Ramon Sanchez Harvard University

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U.S. Total Energy Market Share by Type of Fuel


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Petroleum Fuel

  Price of fuel presents variations


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2009 Air Certificated carriersa

Jet fuel (million gallons) 11,147 General aviationb

Aviation gasoline (million gallons) 227 Jet fuel (million gallons) 1,447

Highway

Gasoline, diesel and other fuels (million gallons) Light duty vehicle, short wheel base and motorcyclec 86,035 Light duty vehicle, long wheel basec 35,764 Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more truck 16,342 Combination truck 28,130 Bus 1,869

Transitd Electricity (million kWh) 4,695 Motor fuel (million gallons)

Diesele 658 Gasoline and other nondiesel fuelsf 98 Compressed natural gas 142

Rail, Class I (in freight service) Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 3,192 Amtrak Electricity (million kWh) 565 Distillate / diesel fuel (million gallons) 62 Water Residual fuel oil (million gallons) 4,543 Distillate / diesel fuel oil (million gallons) 1,266 Gasoline (million gallons) 1,130

Transportation Mode Energy used (MJ) Highway 2.35E+13 Air 1.97E+12 Water 3.34E+11 Transit 1.42E+11 Amtrak 1.16E+10

Energy in Transportation Fuel Used in the USA in 2009


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Transportation Mode Passenger Miles Traveled in the USA in 2008 (Millions) Passenger Vehicles 3199116 SUVs 1049667 Air Carriers 583281 Intercity Buses 314278 Trucks 310681 Motorcycles 26430 Inner City Buses 21198 Heavy Rail 16850 Commuter Rail 11032 Amtrak 6179 Light Rail 2081 Other 1156 Taxis 844 Ferry Boat 390 Trolley Bus 161

Transportation per type of vehicle


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  Energy efficient vehicles, people are finding ways to use less fuel

  Emerging Technologies (diesel, hybrid and electric vehicles)

Current Trends in Transportation

Ramon Sanchez Harvard School of Public Health

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Hybrid vehicles

For every 100 Units of Input Energy you get 32 Output Units (Overall 40 – 50 mpg)


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Hybrid Vehicle Technology


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Plug-in Hybrid: It is an electric vehicle that uses Lithium-ion technology batteries to achieve an autonomy of 35 miles per charge (Chevy Volt). If the user would like to drive for longer distances, the hybrid system would activate the internal combustion engine and the car would become a hybrid vehicle. Under just electric operation it would give you an equivalent of 165 miles/gallon and in the hybrid operation you would get 140 miles/gallon. It takes 8 to 6 hours to recharge the battery, but it could potentially be used as a supplemental energy source for your home after a long drive, it may be good for 98 % of non-heavy duty applications.

Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles


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  Concerns about environmental equity, pollution from mobile sources in urban areas might switch to point sources in rural areas (i.e. Power Plants)

  Supply problems with rare earths needed for electromagnetic components

Limitations for plug-in hybrid vehicle technologies


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Electricity by type of fuel in the U.S.

Energy Source Proportion of U.S. electricity (2010)

Coal 44.0% Natural Gas 24.0%

Nuclear 19.5% Hydroelectric 6.3%

Biomass and other 3.5% Oil 0.9%

Wind 0.8% Solar 0.7%

Geothermal 0.3%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration


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Electricity Residential Average Price in the USA


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  Different emissions for electricity from different fuel sources

Source: “Air pollution from electricity-generating large combustion plants An assessment of the theoretical emission reduction of SO2 and NOX through implementation of BAT as set in the BREFs”. European Environmental Agency

Emission factors for conventional electricity


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Electricity from Natural Gas with Co-generation

  Natural Gas represents 24% of electricity

It has a higher efficiency than any other type of conventional power generation facility (close to 50% efficiency)


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  A hydroelectric dam, provides relatively clean energy and serves as a water reserve for agriculture and human consumption

Hydroelectric Power


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Hydroelectric Power


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Nuclear Power

It represents almost 20% of all energy produced in the USA

The “Clean Coal” Dilemma

  What is “Clean Coal”?

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Monoethanolamine Plant: Used to toxic emissions and Capture CO2

The “Clean Coal” Dilemma

  Problems with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (i.e. Clean Coal)

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Energy Intensive: Electricity output decreases between 18 and 23%

Capital costs increase by 60%

Operating costs increase by 30-40%

Electricity prices increase between 80 to 100%

Long-term health effects from carbon capture are unknown

Carbon sequestration is uncertain, certain geological formations are required to capture carbon underground

Capture period is uncertain, constant monitoring and risk analysis are needed

“Clean Coal” is not a myth, it is just too expensive. Electricity generators are unwilling to invest if there is no legislative mandate


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Solution to “Clean Coal Dilemma” might be in renewable

fuels   Renewable Fuels: They come from

carbohydrates and lipids from plants and animals, they are replenished consistently every year


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Non-edible crops

  Potential Solution to renewable fuel problems: Non-edible Energy Crops (low water requirements)

Jatropha Curcas Microalgae Farming


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Microalgae Farming

  Area of opportunity: Algae Biodiesel


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Species Selection

Algae Culture

Mixing Inoculation +CO2 and nutrients

Extraction

Transesterification

Glycerin Recovery Soap and Cosmetics

Biodiesel

Harvesting

Algae farming might pay for Clean Coal

  Results Carbon Capture + Algae Farm

  Reduction of 76% in the carbon intensity of fuels (compared to fossil fuels)

  Reduction of 95% in the carbon intensity of electricity with no additional costs (the algae farm pays for “Clean Coal” operation)

  Elimination of 95% of toxic emissions from power plants

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+ =


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Photovoltaic Electricity

  Costs have decreased by 70% in the past decade New

Technologies: Solar laminate panels

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJe12X6T50 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdQK5wq4T_E&feature=fvwp&NR=1

PV is an international commodity


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Concentrated Solar Power Tech

  Emerging

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIv-gbZQC4k&feature=fvsr


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New Waste-To-Energy Tech

  Reduced toxic emissions and solid waste

Plasma incinerator: Produces electricity from trash, produces synthetic gas and reduces landfill space

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVKm_i0Fvw8


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Energy Efficiency Programs

  People embrace this program

SEDS: State Energy Data Systems

Electricity used in Commercial Buildings in the USA

Space Cooling


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Wind Power


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It has no mobile parts in its engine, it gets its energy from the reaction of Hydrogen and Oxygen. The issue, how do you get, store and distribute the hydrogen???

Fuel Cell Vehicle


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  The main problem with fuel cells is: How do you get the hydrogen in a sustainable way?

Fuel Cell Technology


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Daniel Nocera, formerly at MIT, now a Professor in the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

New Technologies to get hydrogen


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For more information, click in the following link: http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2012/03/clean-energy-pioneer-brings-lab-to-harvard/

Opportunities for domestic fuel cells


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For more information, click in the following links: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khK_QTWl5Nc http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaNGJul2FZ0&feature=endscreen&NR=1

Other applications for fuel cells


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Thank you!!!

“There is nothing more

difficult to execute nor

more dubious of success nor

more dangerous to administer

than to introduce a New Order of Things”


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Potential problems with conventional renewable fuels

Oil Producing Crop Scientific Name Kg of oil/ Hectare .Yr Corn Zea mays 145 Cotton Gossypium hirsutum 273 Hemp Cannabis sativa 305 Soy Beans Glycine max 375 Linseed Linum usitatissimum 402 Cartamus Carthamus tinctorius 655 Buffalo plant Cucurbita foetidissima 665 Rice Oriza sativa L. 696 Sunflower Helianthus annuus 800 Cocoa Beans Theobroma cacao 863 Penauts Arachis hypogaea 890 Canola Brassica napus 1000 Olive Olea europaea 1019 Castor Ricinus communis 1188 Pecan Carya illinoensis 1505 Jojoba Simmondsia chinensis 1528 Babassu Palm Orbignya martiana 1541 Jatropha Jatropha curcas 1590 Avocado Persea americana 2217 Coconut Cocos nucifera 2260 Maacauba Palm Acrocomia aculeata 3775 Oil Palm Elaeis guineensis 5000 Spirulina microalgae Spirullina Sp. 18000 Diatom algae Chlorella Diatomea family 43200 Nannochoropsis (off-shore) Nannochloropsis family 116800


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  Carbon Debt due to land use changes

Before Corn Subsidies in the USA: Crop Rotation of Corn and Soy

After Subsidies: Deforestation of the Rainforest in Brazil to plant soybeans to feed U.S. Cattle. “Carbon Debt” is subsidized by the U.S. Government

USA Brazil

Brazil


Energy outlook pp ramon sanchez

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