Energy Needs for Pakistan
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Transcript of Energy Needs for Pakistan
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Energy Needs: Financial and TechnologyImplications for Pakistan
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Sequence
Introduction
Overview
Statement of the Problem
Energy Needs
Financial and Technology Implications
Conclusion
Way Forward2
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Introduction
Pakistan is facing a huge energy challenge with
concomitant financial and technology implications. These
implications must be taken into account if Pakistans
large and ever expanding population is to secure a
prosperous and stable future.
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Overview
Primary Energy Demand: Gas (47.56%), Oil (32.04%), Hydro (11.77%), Coal (6.74%), Nuclear (1.27%) ,
LPG (0.53%)
Final Energy Demand:
Gas (43.21%), Oil (28.97%), Electricity (16.17%), Coal (10.35%), LPG
(1.29%)
Pakistan is faced with domestic energy supply shortages of coal, oil,
and natural gas, as well as a shortage of hydro generation capacities
Several Studies have assessed Pakistans future energy needs
Pakistan Energy year Hand Book 2012 4
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Statement of the Problem
Growing population and depleting energy resources imply that
securing energy supply sources will be critical for Pakistans
economic growth. However these energy needs have
concomitant financial and technology implications that
become binding with constrained fiscal space. The challenge
is to remove/relax the binding financial and technology
constraints ensuring energy security and economic growth.5
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Energy Needs
Energy Security Action Plan (2005-2030) Energy Demand is expected to rise 7 fold from 55 million tons of oil equivalent
(MTOE) to 360 MTOE by 2030.
Demand for power generation would increase over 8 fold from 19,540 MW in
2005 to 162,590 MW in 2030
Planning Power NTDC, 2011-2035
Forecasts power generation for various growth rates
Electricity generation demand would grow by 7.61% to 798514GWh in 2035
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Planning Power NTDC, 2011-2035 7
Energy Needs
GDP 4.8%
GDP 5.9%
GDP 6.5%
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Energy Needs
GDP Growth Rate of 5.9%
Year Peak Demand (MW)
2015
2020
30510
45398
2030 134814
Planning Power NTDC 2011-2035 8
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Energy Needs
Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022
Expected GDP growth rate of 4.8% primary energy demand in
case of BAU (Business as Usual) is expected to be 122.46
MTOE for the period by 2022
Domestic energy resources are expected to supply 88.23
MTOE by 2022
Large energy deficit would have to be met through imports of
Hydrocarbons
Integrated Energy Plan
2009-2022 9
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Petroleum Institute of Pakistan 10
Energy Needs
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Energy Needs
Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013
BAU case 2010-35
GDP growth of 3.4 % and Population growth rate of 1.4%
Primary energy demand of Pakistan will grow at a rate of
2.2%
Projected to increase from 84.6 Mtoe in 2010 to 145.8 Mtoein 2035
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Energy Needs
Energy Outlook for As and the Pacific 2013 12
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Energy Needs
Energy Outlook Asia and the Pacific 2013:
Domestic production of gas will decline from the current 38.4
billion cubic meters (bcm) to 13 bcm in 2035
Net Imports of gas is expected to rise to 81%
Oil import dependency may rise to nearly 88% by 2035 if
domestic oil production is maintained at a constant level
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Energy Needs
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Financial and Technology Implications
Security Action Plan 2005-30
Investment of US$ 150 billion required in the energy sector during the
next 25 years
Integrated Energy Plan 2009-22
In case of BAU the total import bill 34.23 MMTOE with a constant
value of US$ 70 BBL could lead to imports of US$ 41 billion in 2022
With a better energy mixoil import could be kept to US$17 billion in 2022
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Financial and Technology Implications
Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035
BAU case
Pakistan requires and investment of US$ 116 billion
Pakistans cumulative energy investment as share of GDP
would be 4%
Major share of this investment would be in Electricity
generation16
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Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035 17
Cumulative Energy Investment as Share of GDP (%)
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Financial and Technology Implications
Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2013 18
Sectoral Investment 2010-2035
i i l d h l li i
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Financial and Technology Implications
Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035
Alternative case
Pakistan could save 10.3% of primary energy demand
Pakistan saves 15.0 Mtoe by 2035
Pakistans cumulative Investment would be larger than BAU case to the
tune of 45.5% ( US$ 116 billion + US$ 52.7 billion=US$ 168.7 billion)
Advantages in terms of energy security and lower emissions outweigh
the financial cost
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Comparison of BAU and
Alternative for Pakistan
Sectoral Savings for Pakistan
Financial and Technology Implications
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Conclusion
Energy savings efforts on the demand side and the use of
high efficiency technologies on the supply side would
require a sustained and large capital investments over a
long period of time.
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Way Forward
Substantial demand-side and supply side investments
Efficient utilization of indigenous energy sources
Securing affordable and reliable energy import sources
Restructuring of Electricity Sector
Developing energy finance capability
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Way Forward
WE CAN WRITE OUR FUTURE WITH OUR
ACTIONS IN THE PRESENT
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THANK YOU
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Source: State Bank of Pakistan 25
Financialand Technology Implications
Value of Oil Imports in US$ billion
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Financialand Technology Implications
Integrated Energy Plan 2009-2022 26
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ForAsia and the Pacific
Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific 2010-2035 27
Difference between investments in BAU and Alternative cases