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Transcript of Energy Market Report
7/31/2019 Energy Market Report
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 1
ENERGY PRICES WERE MIXED YESTERDAY… crude oil
rode the equities higher following initial jobless claims
dropping to the lowest point since April and a better-
than-expected increase in domestic GDP for the second
quarter. Natural gas was not so lucky with a huge 111
Bcf injection from the EIA. As for today, U.S. personal
income is expected to increase by 0.1% in August,
while expenditure is forecast 0.2% higher MoM.
Initial Jobless Claims Lower T han… A Really High Level(See omnium-gatherum p.6)
Chart of the Day: Cumulative Injection vs. Total Storag
(Bcf)
C
EIA ReviewBulls: 0, Bears: 111
By all accounts yesterday’s natural gas injection was expec
to be bearish, with median analyst estimates coming in at
Bcf, 2 Bcf more than the largest injection on record for
reference week (seen back in 2003). In turn the market
trending lower from its open with lows of 3.756 by 10:00
EST. Yet even the bears must have been surprised when
Friday, September 30th, 2011
www.schorkreport.com
TRADING BIAS DAILY
WTI: NEUTRAL a/o Sep 26 …S- 79.95 R- 84.33 BRN: NEUTRAL a/o Sep 26 …S- 102.23 R- 105.67
NG: BEARISH a/o Aug 17 …S- 3.688 R- 3.806
RB: NEUTRAL a/o Sep 26 …S- 250.59 R- 261.13
HO: NEUTRAL a/o Sep 26 …S- 278.08 R- 287.24
TRADING BIAS WEEKLY
WTI: BEARISH a/o Jun 06 …S- 76.18 R- 83.52
BRN: BEARISH a/o Jun 27 …S- 99.74 R- 108.2
NG: BEARISH a/o Jun 06 …S- 3.568 R- 3.834
RB: BEARISH a/o May 09 …S- 243.35 R- 267.59
HO: BEARISH a/o Jun 27 …S- 268.21 R- 290.95
TRADING BIAS MONTHLY
WTI: BEARISH a/o May 2011 …S- 90.24 R- 133.54 BRN: BEARISH a/o May 2011 …S- 91.85 R- 136.16
NG: BEARISH a/o Oct 2010 …S- 3.25 R- 5.82 RB: BEARISH a/o May 2011 …S- 220.8 R- 357.02
HO: BEARISH a/o May 2011 …S- 264.19 R- 377.15
CRUDE AWAKENINGS
Weather forecast courtesy of
Commodity Weather Group
EIA Estimated Underground Storage (Bcf)
w/e 23-Sep-11
Region StockPrev.Week
% Prev. Year %
East 1,820 1,753 67 3.8 1,860 (40) (2.2)
West 456 445 11 2.5 496 (40) (8.1)
GoM 1,036 1,003 33 3.3 1,047 (11) (1.1)
Total U.S. 3,312 3,201 111 3.5 3,403 (91) (2.7)
Region Capacity 5Yr Avg %
East 2,205 82.5% 1,872 (52) (2.8)
West 558 81.7% 453 3 0.7
GoM 1,340 77.3% 982 54 5.5
Total U.S. 4,103 80.7% 3,307 5 0.2
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 2
EIA reported a huge 111 Bcf injection to total natural gas
storage at 10:30AM EST. In the minutes after the
release, prices were testing lows of 3.685.
The bulls would love to be able to say that the large
injection is simply a function of production coming back
on-line after Tropical Storm Lee/power outage related
disruptions in the Gulf. This is simply not the case – as
drawn in today’s CotD, the cumulative injection for the
first four reports of September comes to 351 Bcf, the
second largest on record, beaten only by 2003. Yet
consider that total storage at the same week in 2003
came to 2.82 Tcf, in 2011 it is 17.45% higher at 3.31 Tcf,
the third highest level on record. When we see the
second largest injection of all time when inventories are
at the third highest level on record, we think bearish.
The root cause of the injection was, simply, continued
strength in production. The EIA reports that productionwas up 0.1% for the week which would place it around
the ~62.85 Bcf/d level. In turn, the Gulf of Mexico region
reported a 33 Bcf injection, 83.33% above the seasonal
average and the largest injection ever seen for this
timestep. Similarly, shale production helped the East
region report a 67 Bcf injection, 52.97% above the
seasonal average and, of course, the largest number on
record.
The demand side was no better, with national electricity
output down by 3.72% WoW, with drops as large as
7.06% in the West Central and South Central regions.From a seasonal perspective, the West Central region
came in 11.70% below last year while the national
average was 6.46% below last year and 4.01% below
seasonal norms. Considering how low output is, the
5.9% YoY deficit in nuclear generation no longer seems
that bullish.
Lower output to a certain degree is to be expected as w
enter the shoulder months – cooling degrees in New
England stand at 3, as compared to 67 at the end of July
But even accounting for seasonal trends temps seem
week. The preceding chart draws the % drop in coolin
degrees between the last week of July and the referenc
week. The seasonal average decline in CDD’s comes t
53.09%, a reasonable number. In 2011 it came t
70.30%. The West North Central was even sharper, wit
a historic drop of 67.46% and a 97.14% drop in 2011.
Put simply, cooling degree days are effectively over fo
the season. At the same time, heating degree days ar
strong, but not large enough on an absolute basis to fue
significant demand – the U.S. average came to 31 HDD
last week as compared to the seasonal normal of 15 HDD
Was there anything encouraging about yesterday’
report? Well, we would love to say the West region saw small injection as CDD’s in the Pacific came in 37.40%
above seasonal norms, but this was not the case
Instead, the West region’s 11 Bcf injection was more tha
double the 5 Bcf seen last year and 2 Bcf above th
seasonal average of 9 Bcf.
In turn, as shown above, basis pricing was weak acros
the board. Every single trading hub reported a dro
between last Thursday and the prior Thursday, with a
average drop of 5.34% and a maximum of 9.15% at th
PJM hub. The bottom line is that we have maintained ou
bearish daily natural gas bias through thick and thin
Nothing in yesterday’s report is inspiring us to change it.
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 3
NATURAL GAS
WTI was strong yesterday, breaking away from the rest of
the complex with a 1.15% gain. Keep in mind that WTI
lagged on Wednesday, so yesterday may be a function of
arb traders moving in to balance the cracks, or simply retail
investors who are trading WTI along with the equities or
against the dollar. Meanwhile the front month spread rose
to highs of -0.16, the highest since the November contract
took over as the front month. We would advise watching
today’s personal income/expenditure data. As drawn
below, the percentage of total expenditure on gasoline
rebounded in July.
As far as next Thursday’s EIA storage report goes,
weather-related demand through the Midwest remains
comfortable this week, but is cranked up in the
Southwest. Through the first five days of the reference
week degree-days are up by more than one-third fromthe previous timestep in the Houston market area. As far
as the injection for this week is concerned, we typically
see a number in between 62 and 79 Bcf.
OIL
As far as today goes, weakness below yesterday's 23.6
retrace of 80.66 alerts to our 79.95 inflection lo
Below here we will look towards our 77.75 intra-day.
the other hand, gains above yesterday's 76.4% retrace
82.96 clear a path to our 84.33 inflection high. Throu
here the bulls could run to- and into - resistance at o
86.53 intra-day high.
WTI X Open 80.67 High 83.98 Low 79.64 Close 82.14 Chng +0.93
NAT-GAS X Open 3.793 High 3.837 Low 3.685 Close 3.747 Chng -0.052
As for today, strength above 09/23's 3.772 open open
the door to our 3.806 inflection high. Above here th
bulls will potentially run towards our 3.865 intra-day
Then again, weakness below the 3.700 psych barrier lead
to our 3.688 inflection low. Below here we look fo
offers to hit support at our 3.629 intra-day.
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
3 0 - J u n
6 - J u l
1 1 - J u l
1 4 - J u l
1 9 - J u l
2 2 - J u l
2 7 - J u l
1 - A u g
4 - A u g
9 - A u g
1 2 - A u g
1 7 - A u g
2 2 - A u g
2 5 - A u g
3 0 - A u g
2 - S e p
8 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 6 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
NYMEX NG November '11 Daily
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
3 0 - J u n
6 - J u l
1 1 - J u l
1 4 - J u l
1 9 - J u l
2 2 - J u l
2 7 - J u l
1 - A u g
4 - A u g
9 - A u g
1 2 - A u g
1 7 - A u g
2 2 - A u g
2 5 - A u g
3 0 - A u g
2 - S e p
8 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 6 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
NYMEX CL November '11 Daily
Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
Daily Bias: BEARISH
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LIGHT ENDS
MIDDLE DISTILLATES HEATING OIL X Open 281.90 High 288.12 Low 280.25 Close 282.66 Chng -0.05
ICE Brent
Heating oil prices were effectively flat yesterday, settling
0.02% lower. Traders may have been encouraged by the
Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, which was
expected to remain flat at 3 in September but instead doubled
to 6. The heating oil crack dropped below its 50 day MA
yesterday, but was inching higher in after-hours trade. We
expect increased volatility today as the contract for Octoberdelivery goes off the board.
As for today, strength above yesterday's 284.19 pivot high
builds a bridge to our 287.24 upper inflection point. Once
crossed, the bulls should run towards our 291.82 intra-day
high. Then again, weakness below yesterday's 280.25 low
print signals momentum to our 278.08 inflection low. Below
here we will look for offers down to our 273.50 intra-day low.
Despite a severe correction in initial jobless claims andencouraging personal consumption data for the second
quarter, RBOB fell by 0.65% yesterday. Yet the low print of
254.96 was well above our 254.41 lower alert and our 251.74
inflection low. Combined with an encouraging DOE report, we
will look for the RBOB crack to remain above its 200 day MA
of $25.15 in the short term.
As far as today goes, weakness below 09/22's 252.44 low
print alerts to our 250.59 inflection low. Below here we look
to our 245.31 intra-day. On the other hand, a rebound above
yesterday's 258.34 pivot high opens the door to our 261.13
upper inflection point. Above here the bulls should bidtowards our 266.41 intra-day high.
Brent X Open 103.00 High 105.82 Low 102.35 Close 103.95 Chng +0.14
RBOB X Open 256.50 High 261.72 Low 254.96 Close 255.86 Chng -1.67
Prices in London were flat yesterday, an unpleasant surprise for
sellers of the WTI – Brent spread. As mentioned in yesterday’s
note the spread was selling off in the after-hours Wednesday to
lows of -24.00. Instead, the crack settled yesterday at -21.81,
the third consecutive settle above the 50 day MA. Next stop forthe technicals? The 100 day MA of -20.235.
As far as today goes, strength above 09/27's 104.77 open
opens the door to our 105.67 inflection point. If crossed, we
will look for bids to our 107.38 intra-day. On the other hand, a
drop below 09/28's 103.23 low print alerts momentum to our
102.23 inflection low. Below here we will look for offers
towards our 100.52 intra-day.
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
3 0 - J u n
6 - J u l
1 1 - J u l
1 4 - J u l
1 9 - J u l
2 2 - J u l
2 7 - J u l
1 - A u g
4 - A u g
9 - A u g
1 2 - A u g
1 7 - A u g
2 2 - A u g
2 5 - A u g
3 0 - A u g
2 - S e p
8 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 6 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
NYMEX HO November '11 Daily
Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
3
0 - J u n
6 - J u l
1 1 - J u l
1 4 - J u l
1 9 - J u l
2 2 - J u l
2 7 - J u l
1 - A u g
4 - A u g
9 - A u g
1 2 - A u g
1 7 - A u g
2 2 - A u g
2 5 - A u g
3 0 - A u g
2 - S e p
8 - S e p
1
3 - S e p
1
6 - S e p
2
1 - S e p
NYMEX XB November '11 Daily
98
100
102
104
106
108
110112
114
116
118
120
122
4 - J u l
7 - J u l
1 2 - J u l
1 5 - J u l
2 0 - J u l
2 5 - J u l
2 8 - J u l
2 - A u g
5 - A u g
1 0 - A u g
1 5 - A u g
1 8 - A u g
2 3 - A u g
2 6 - A u g
3 1 - A u g
5 - S e p
8 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 6 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
Brent CO November '11 Daily
Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 5
Following a record breaking 67 Bcf natural gas injection i
the East region, PJM West prices dropped sharpl
yesterday. However, the low print of $38.75/Mwh wa
just above our lower price regression of $37.203/Mwh.
Additional pressure was likely put on prices by a tin
2.04% increase in natural gas burn rates. Nuclea
generation in Region 1 stands 1.6% above last year, th
only region to report a YoY surplus. Further, generatio
as a percentage of capacity stands at 93% in region 1
the highest of any region and a stark contrast to the 78%
level in Region 2.
In turn, on-peak spot prices at the Cinergy Hub decline
by $2.61/Mwh as compared to the $3.86/Mwh drop see
at the PJM. On a national level nuclear generation stand
5.9% below last year but, as discussed above anevidenced by the large injection, mild temps have led to
commensurate decrease in demand.
ELECTRICITY RECAP
PRICE PATH
TETCO M3 natural gas prices dropped to $4.000 yesterda
the third lowest value for the entire month. This was m
by a more-than-commensurate decrease in electric
prices. In turn, the 10K spark spread dropped in
negative territory for the first time since September 19
Keep in mind we have seen serious support at t
$40.00/Mwh level recently, thus our regression rang
between $46.483/mwh and $36.403/Mwh.
6 K
7 K
8 K
9 K
1 0 K
1 1 K
1 2 K
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
2 9 - A u g
3 0 - A u g
3 1 - A u g
1 - S e p
2 - S e p
6 - S e p
7 - S e p
8 - S e p
9 - S e p
1 2 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 4 - S e p
1 5 - S e p
1 9 - S e p
2 0 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 2 - S e p
2 3 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
2 7 - S e p
2 8 - S e p
2 9 - S e p
Tetco M3 Spark Spread Surface
1 0 K
1 1 K
1 2 K
1 3 K
1 4 K
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
3 1 - A u g
1 - S e p
2 - S e p
6 - S e p
7 - S e p
8 - S e p
9 - S e p
1 2 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 4 - S e p
1 5 - S e p
1 9 - S e p
2 0 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
2 2 - S e p
2 3 - S e p
2 6 - S e p
2 7 - S e p
2 8 - S e p
2 9 - S e p
Pennsylvania Railcar Coal Dark Spread Surface
0.E+00
1.E+06
2.E+06
3.E+06
4.E+06
5.E+06
6.E+06
7.E+06
8.E+06
5 / 2 5
5 / 2 8
5 / 3 1
6 / 3
6 / 6
6 / 9
6 / 1 2
6 / 1 5
6 / 1 8
6 / 2 1
6 / 2 4
6 / 2 7
6 / 3 0
7 / 3
7 / 6
7 / 9
7 / 1 2
7 / 1 5
7 / 1 8
7 / 2 1
7 / 2 4
7 / 2 7
7 / 3 0
8 / 2
8 / 5
8 / 8
8 / 1 1
8 / 1 4
8 / 1 7
8 / 2 0
8 / 2 3
8 / 2 6
8 / 2 9
9 / 1
9 / 4
9 / 7
9 / 1 0
9 / 1 3
9 / 1 6
9 / 1 9
9 / 2 2
9 / 2 5
9 / 2 8
D e k a t h e r m s / d
a y
Natural Gas Burnt in NPCC Region by Sector
Residential Sector
Power Sector
35
85
135
185
235
6 / 2 9
7 / 5
7 / 8
7 / 1 3
7 / 1 8
7 / 2 1
7 / 2 6
7 / 2 9
8 / 3
8 / 8
8 / 1 1
8 / 1 6
8 / 1 9
8 / 2 4
8 / 2 9
9 / 1
9 / 7
9 / 1 2
9 / 1 5
9 / 2 1
9 / 2 6
9 / 2 9
ICE PJM West On Peak Real Time Daily
Close
30 day MA
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 6
Yesterday the Department of Labor released the latest
weekly initial jobless claims, which analysts were
expecting to come in at 420K, just below the previous
week’ s 423K level. Instead, they dropped to 391K, the
lowest point since April 2011.
While we recognize this is an improvement, we hardly find
it encouraging. The chart below draws average initial
jobless claims between 2003 and 2007 on a monthly basis
against claims for 2011 (with a non-zero axis). Initial
jobless claims may be at their lowest level since April but,
like congratulating the most stable inmate at the insane
asylum, this is a heavily modified compliment.
OMNIUM-GATHERUM
towards our 866.25 intra-day. On the other handcontinued strength above yesterday's 907.75 hig
print clears a path towards our 914.25 uppe
inflection-point. Above here we will look for bid
towards our 930.25 intra-day.
Given the strong front month crack we were looking for a
draw in gasoil inventories at the ARA hub yesterday, instead
PJK Services reported a 28 K tonne increase. This strikes us
as bearish and the markets did not disagree – gasoil sold off
1.02% yesterday. Mogas inventories dropped 116 K tonnes.
As for today, offers through yesterday's 23.6% retrace of
883.75 alert to follow-through momentum towards our
882.25 inflection. We will look for weakness below here
ICE GASOIL
Instead, yesterday’s strength in the equities was likely due
the second quarter GDP data. Personal consumption rose
0.7% as compared to the 0.4% expected by analysts, w
total GDP rose by 1.3% as compared to the 1.2% expecte
Yet for the energy complex the data was less th
encouraging. Expenditure on gas and energy fell by 2.1%
the quarter despite a small 0.52% decline in pric
Meanwhile motor vehicles saw a 7.1% QoQ drop. This he
explain the weakness seen in front month RBOB, which
1.19% yesterday as compared to WTI’s 1.15% gain.
fairness, traders are likely liquidating their positions in
October RBOB contract due to expiration today, yet even
November RBOB contract was weak yesterday.
Instead, much of yesterday’s GDP growth was due to
services sector– medical care saw a 0.7% QoQ gain w
housing saw a 0.5% gain. On a discretionary le
recreation services saw a 2.2% gain, an encouraging sign
consumer health.
All told, yesterday’s GDP data was bullish on the head
level, but on the breakdown puts a damper on Wednesda
encouraging DOE report for the products. Thus we maint
our neutral daily bias.
1010.5
1111.5
1212.5
1313.5
1414.5
1515.5
1616.5
1717.5
18
16-Sep 19-Sep 20-Sep 21-Sep 22-Sep 23-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep
ICE Brent-Gasoil Crack Spread
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
1000
4 - J u l
7 - J u l
1 2 - J u l
1 5 - J u l
2 0 - J u l
2 5 - J u l
2 8 - J u l
2 - A u g
5 - A u g
1 0 - A u g
1 5 - A u g
1 8 - A u g
2 3 - A u g
2 6 - A u g
3 1 - A u g
5 - S e p
8 - S e p
1 3 - S e p
1 6 - S e p
2 1 - S e p
ICE Gasoil October '11 Daily
Daily Bias: NEUTRAL
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Friday, September 30th, 2011 [email protected] © 2011 THE SCHORK GROUP, INC Page 7
Monday 09/26 - Ethanol futures for December delivery
weakened for a third straight week along with heavy
losses in the gasoline and corn markets. The contract
finished at $2.435/g or 5.1% below the prior Friday’s
close. The CBOT crush averaged an unremarkable$0.32/g, however, the crush between prompt f.o.b.
ethanol in Chicago and the bid for №2 yellow corn in
Chicago has doubled over the last two weeks to $1.03/g.
According to the DOE, for the week ended September
16th, gasoline demand in the U.S. ticked up by 11 bps to
8.86 MMb/d. Demand over the last four weeks
averaged an anemic 8.99 MMbbl/d, i.e. a ten-year
low. Meanwhile, discretionary gasoline blending
(conventional + ethanol) rose for the first time in three
weeks as economics continue to skew their way. Over the
last four weeks discretionary blending accounted for five-in-nine gallons of the entire gasoline pool.
As go the biofuel Ag feedstocks, in Chicago the amount of
CBOT corn futures owned by money managers dropped
for a second straight week and fell to a two-month low.
Per the CFTC week ended Tuesday, September 20th, the
amount of speculative length fell by 12.13% to 247,010.
In New York, speculative money in the NYBOT/ICE sugar
market fell by an even larger 12.149%. The net length o
sugar futures in the hands of money managers dropped to
a five month low of 114,143 contracts.
After hitting a life-of-contract high at the end of AugustChicago corn futures for December delivery have plunge
18% to 638.50. As far as this week goes, offers throug
619.00 alert to follow through weakness towards ou
599.50 weekly inflection point. Below here we will loo
for offers towards our 582.75 weekly top. Otherwise,
rebound through 678.75 cautions for renewed strengt
towards our 709.25 upper inflection point and then to ou
734.75 intra-week low target.
As far as Mar-12 sugar goes, last Friday the marke
plunged 1.8% below our 24.46 intra-week low. As far a
this week goes, offers through 22.80 alert to followthrough weakness towards our 21.81 weekly inflectio
point. We will look for weakness below here towards ou
20.99 intra-week low. Otherwise, a rebound throug
26.14 clears a path towards our 27.76 upper inflectio
point. We will look for strength through here towards ou
29.14 intra-week high.
BIOFUELS
WEEKLY OUTLOOK (September 26th to 30th)
Henry Hub… weakness below the week ending 10/22's 3.613 high print alerts to our 3.568 inflection low. Belowhere we will look for offers to our 3.435 intra-week. On the other hand, a rebound above last week's 3.761 pivot
high opens the door to our 3.834 inflection high. Once crossed, the bulls should run towards our 3.967 intra-week
high. WTI… strength above the week ending 08/26's 82.42 open should send the bulls towards our 83.52 inflection
high. Above here they will likely hit resistance at our 87.18 intra-week high. On the other hand, a correction below
last week's 77.55 low print leads to our 76.18 inflection low. Below here we look for offers to our 72.52 intra-week.
Brent… strength above last week's 106.61 pivot point opens the door to our 108.20 inflection high. Above here the
bulls will run to (and in to resistance at) our 112.43 intra-week high. On the other hand, a drop below the week
ending 02/18's 100.73 low print alerts to our 99.74 inflection low. Below here the floor falls through to our 95.51
intra-week low. RBOB… strength above last week's 265.90 pivot high clears the path to our 267.59 inflection high.
If the bulls break through here they could hit resistance around our 279.70 intra-week high. On the other hand, a
correction below the week ending 02/18's 246.20 low print alerts to our 243.35 inflection low. Below here we look
for offers to our 231.24 intra-week low. Heating Oil… strength above last week's 286.50 pivot point opens the
door to our 290.95 inflection high. Above here we look for bids to our 302.31 intra-week. Then again, a correction
past 08/09's 270.20 low print alerts to our 268.21 inflection point. Below here the bears should claw to our 256.85
intra-week low.
A note about the Ibis: The Ibis folklore has it that other birds look to the Ibis for leadership. The Ibis uses its
instinct to detect danger. It is the last sign of wildlife to take shelter before a hurricane hits, giving warning that
danger is imminent. As the storm passes the Ibis is the first to reappear, a sign the clear skies are
approaching.