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Energy, Food & Transport for the 21st Century

An introduction to the dynamics of energy, food and transport

Implications for sustainable / green living in the 21st century

Karim Jaufeerally

Institute for Environmental and Legal Studies

iels.intnet.mu

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Energy & Modern SocietySources of energy used world wide in 2008

Oil 33.2%Coal 27%Natural Gas 21.1%Hydro-electricity 2.2%Nuclear 5.6%Combustible renewable 10%Other (sun, wind, geothermal) 0.7%

Total energy used: 12,267 MtoeIEA 2010 (International Energy Association) – BP year book 2010 – USGS (US

Geological Survey) – EIA (Energy Information Administration) US

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Primary Source of energy

Transports using liquid fuels

Electricity Source of Heat Pesticides, plastics, lubricants, asphalt, fertilisers

Oil 60% 10% 14% 16%

Coal 0.5% 45% 50% 4.5%

Natural Gas 6% 34% 50% 10%

Nuclear 100%

Hydro-electricity

100%

Biomass X% Y% Z% W%

Solar Energy 50% 50%

Wind Energy 100%

Geothermal X% Y%

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Energy, Transport and the Economic system

1. All modern economic system totally reliant on transport

2. Transport system requires large amounts of energy

3. Reduction in transport = reduction in economic activity

4. Critical to examine transport energy issues!!!

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Transport EnergyOil 2150 Mtoe 94.3% Liquid fuel Internal

Combustion Engines (ICE)

Coal 3.3 Mtoe 0.14 % Liquid fuel / CTL

ICE

Natural Gas 77.5 Mtoe 3.4 % Compressed natural gas, GTL / Liquid fuel

ICE

Electricity 23 Mtoe 1.0 % Electric currents

Electric motors

Biofuels 25 Mtoe 1.0% Liquid fuel ICE

Total 2278.8 Mtoe

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Oil is essential for modern transports

1. 99% of transport system relies on internal combustion engines (ICE)

2. 98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels

3. 98% of liquid fuel is OIL

4. Therefore: 95% of transport energy is OIL

5. 60% of all oil used for transportation

6. Oil is vital for modern transports which are vital to economic systems

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Oil essential for industrial agriculture

• Modern Industrial agriculture totally dependant on oil

• agricultural machinery

• Fertilisers – pesticides – insecticides

• Transport from fields to factories to supermarkets to consumers

• Chain from field to consumer totally dependent on OIL

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Oil in transport & industrial agriculture is KING!!!

Economic system & Industrial Agriculture totally reliant on transport

Transport totally reliant on oil

Need to examine future of oil closely

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The Future of Oil

1. Of fossil origin

2. Non renewable

3. Resource subject to depletion

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Different forms of oil

1. Conventional OilIn liquid form – low viscosityOn ShoreOffshore < 500 m

2. Non – Conventional OilDeep Sea Oil (>500 m) Polar OilHeavy Oil / Oil SandsOil Shale

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Offshore Oil

1. Conventional Off shore < 500 m – North Sea - Mexico

2. Non Conventional Off Shore –

Deep Sea Oil > 500m Gulf of Mexico – Brazil – Angola

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Polar Oil

Oil in the Polar regions

Alaska – Siberia – Canada

Antarctica: Off limits via international conventions

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Heavy, Bituminous sands / Oil sands

The sands contain naturally occurring mixtures of sand, clay, water, and a dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum technically referred to as bitumen

US, Russia, Middle East

But especially Canada & Venezuela

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Oil Shale

Oil shale An organic-rich sedimentary rock from which liquid hydrocarbons can be extracted

US, Estonia, China, Brazil

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State of Oil Resources (2008)Types of Oil Estimates of

Ultimately Recoverable Resource (Bbls)

Cumulative Production to date (Bbls)

Current Daily Production (mb/d)

Percentage of Total Daily Production (mb/d)

Conventional Oils 2200 – 2400 billion 1100 billion 67.6 79.6 %

Heavy & Oil sands 3600 billion 60 billion 2.7 3.1%

Deep Sea Oil 100 - 200 billion 30 billion 5.9 6.9%

Polar Oil 50 billion 15 billion 0.80 1.0%

Oil Shale 2800 - 3300 billion 10 billion 0.01 -

Natural Gas Liquids 300 billion 100 billion 8.0 9.4%

Total 9050 – 9850 billion 1315 billion 85 100%

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Conventional Oil is dominant!

• 80 % of world oil production comes from conventional oil fields from which 1/2 of the resource has already been extracted.

• “Crude oil (conventional) output reaches and undulating plateau of around 68 – 69 mb/d by 2020 but never regains its all time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006,” World Energy Outlook 2010 – IEA

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What is the future of oil production? • Critical to asses the future of world oil production

• Need to understand oil production profile from typical oil field

• Dr Hubbert King first to study oil production profiles in the 1950’s and proposes Peak Oil Theory

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Theory vs. Reality

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Oil Production always Peaks!

• Simmons & Co

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Peak Oil!!!

• Oil is a finite non renewable resource

• Resource base declines with production

• Therefore a point will be reached when resource base has declined to such an extent (1/2) that current production can no longer be sustained

• Thus oil production begins its decline

• Peak Oil is real!!!!

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When Will Oil Production Peak?

• Hirsch Report

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When Will Oil Production Peak?

• An analytical model of future oil supply

• Dr Krumdieck 2008

• Probability that the peak will have occurred

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Probability Peak Production reached

1% 50% 80% 95% 99% 99.99%

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Crude Oil

• Aspo

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Can we shift to Non Conventional Oils?

• Deep Sea & Polar Oil: Modest resource base (150 – 250 Billion Bbls) and modest rates of production (6.7 mb/d)

• Heavy & Oil Sands: Large resource base (3600 Billion Bbls) but low rates of productions (2.7 mb/d)

• Oil Shale: Large resource base (2800 billion bbls), very low rates of production (11,000 bbls/day), technically difficult

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Impacts of Peak Oil

• Peak Oil will happen

• Oil Demand unmet - Prices oscillate widely from very high to fairly low

• Oil supplies will diminish

• What Impacts?

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Impacts of Peak Oil: The Hirsch Report 2005 PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:

IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENTRobert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader

Roger Bezdek, MISIRobert Wendling, MISI

February 2005

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an

unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuelprices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation,

the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigationoptions exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantialimpact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

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Impacts of Peak Oil

• Hirsch Report

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Impacts of Peak Oil

• Shortages in oil supply = Reduction in modern transports = Reduction in economic activities

• Industrial agricultural systems under stress

• Threatened food security

• Threatened energy security

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Impacts of Peak Oil

• Geopolitical instability

• Risks of war

• Revolutions, Coup d'états

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The Energy Crisis

It is mainly an oil supply crisis

It is an acute crisis of liquid fuel for transportation

It is also a food crisis

What alternatives to oil for transportation?

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The constraint of limited or non substitution of energy sources

Primary Source of energy

Transports using liquid fuels

Electricity Source of Heat Pesticides, plastics, lubricants, asphalt, fertilisers

Oil 60% 10% 14% 16%

Coal 0.4% 45% 50% 4.5%

Natural Gas 5.9% 34% 50% 10%

Nuclear 100%

Hydro-electricity

100%

Biomass X% Y% Z% W%

Solar Energy 50% 50%

Wind Energy 100%

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The constraint of limited substitution in transport

For many purposes, difficult to substitute one form of energy for another. Especially in transportation!!! WHY??

(1) Dependency on liquid fuel especially oil (95% of transport energy)

(2) The volumes of oil consumed daily in that sector (60% of 86 million barrels per day!)

(3) The time required to change energy infrastructure, 20 to 30 years

(4) Financial capital required

Oil Dependency, Volume, Time and Capital

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The constraint of limited substitution, renewable energies and transport – very

acute!1. Solar: Heat – Electricity2. Wind: Electricity 3. Biomass: Combustion energy-biofuels 4. Hydro: Electricity5. Geothermal: Heat – Electricity6. Tidal: Electricity

99% Transportation relies on internal combustion engines (ICE)

98% of ICE relies on liquid fuels

98% liquid fuel is oil

95% of transport energy is oil

Thus, except for biomass, renewable energies CANNOT be used for transportation unless massive electrification occurs

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What liquid fuels alternatives to oil for transportation exist?

(1) BTL: Biomass to liquids(2) GTL: Gas to liquids(3) CTL: Coal to liquids(4) Natural Gas

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Biomass to Liquids (BTL)

• Ethanol, biodiesel mainly

• 1.84 million of barrels per day – 2010• Competes with food production

• Only 1% of transport energy

• Biofuels compete with food production in many cases

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Gas to Liquids (GTL)

• The transformation of methane into liquid fuel using the Fisher-Tropsch (F-T) process.

• Less than 100,000 barrels per day of production

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Gas to Liquids (GTL)

• Qatar, Ras Laffan Industrial City

• Integrated gas and gas-to liquids project by Shell

• Investment $18 billion-$19 billion

• 140,000 barrels of GTL per day

• Completion date: 2010

• Time of construction: 4 – 5 years

• 130,000 US $ of investment of each barrel of GTL/day of production capacity

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Coal to Liquids (CTL)

• Synthesis of liquid fuels from coal using the Fisher-Tropsch process.

• Used extensively by Germany during WW2 which lacked access to sufficient oil resources

• 50% of liquid fuels during wartime Germany came from CTL

• In spite of abundant coal and water, German military always short of fuel.

• Significant factor in Germany’s final defeat

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Coal to Liquids (CTL)

• Sasol of South Africa uses 140,000 tonnes of coal to produce 150,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil

• Chinese plant produces another 20,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil

• 1 ton of coal = 1 barrel of synthetic crude oil (approx)

• CTL never covered more than 40% of liquid fuel demand in SA

• World coal production 7 billion tonnes per year

• World oil production 30 billion barrels per year

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Natural Gas

• 1.8 million barrels per day used for transportation (approx)

• 3.4% of transport energy

• Storage problematic

• Requires new distribution and storage network

• Requires large increases in NG production

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Natural GasIn 2007, an Australian Senate Committee considered the wider use of natural gas as atransport fuel but found that there were significant problems.1) Natural gas requires either a refrigeration system or compression and a largegas tank for storage, which limits its range.2) The process of compression or freezing is energy-intensive and thereforedetracts from the net energy available for transport.3) In the case of commercial vehicles, the extra weight and cost of a gasconversion makes the payback period quite lengthy and the economics are thusdependant on generous tax concessions in the excise regime.4) A nationwide lack of refuelling infrastructure appears to be another obstacle towider use.The Senate Committee’s conclusion regarding the use of natural gas was thus ambivalent.In the medium term, gas might substitute for oil as a transport fuel but its use would be

only a bridge, not a long-term fix, and ultimately gas will run out as well.

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Lets’ add up all our alternatives

• BTL: 1.84 million bbls/day

• GTL: 100,000 to 240,000 bbls/day

• CTL: 170,000 bbls/day

• Natural Gas: 1.8 million bbls/day

• Total: 4 million bbls/day (7.5% of transportation fuels)

• Compare with 86 million barrels/day of oil production 61% (52.8 mb/d) of which goes to transportation

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How about hydrogen?

• Neither ready technically nor economic

• Difficulties in large scale production of hydrogen

• Difficulties in storing and distributing hydrogen on a wide scale

• Requires a new fleet of vehicles

• Colossal time and capital constraints

• H2 NOT a source of energy as must be produced from a primary source of energy

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Transition to electric power in transport

• Can we transition away from liquid fuels / oil for transportation in time?

• This means the electrification of land transport

• Remember only 1% of transport energy comes from electricity.

• Transition to electric power will require time, capital and additional renewable sources of electric power

• Air and maritime transport CANNOT be electrified at present!

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Alternatives to oil for transportationLiquid Fuels BTL / CTL / GTL

Natural Gas Electricity Hydrogen

Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) Same vehicular fleet

ICE

New vehicle fleet

Electric motors –

New vehicle fleet

Fuel cells and electric motorsNew vehicle fleet

Requires new production facilities, very expensive

May use existing distribution & storage infrastructure

Long lead times

Technically ready

Requires new distribution and storage infrastructure Requires large increases in NG production

Long lead times

Technically ready

Can use existing electric power system but will require additional power sources preferably renewable energy

Long lead times

Technically ready

Requires new infrastructure for production, distribution and storage of H2

Very long lead times! Technically not ready

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The problem of scaling up supply of AF

• Use of liquid fuels alternatives such as CTL, GTL, BTL or NG CANNOT be scaled up very quickly.

• Scaling up requires new production facilities

• In case of NG new distribution networks

• Thus lots of resources, capital and time!!! Hirsch Report

• 15 yrs of crash programme to substitute 25 mbbls/day of oil

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The problem of renewing the vehicular fleet

• In US average vehicle is 9 yrs old

• It takes 17 to 20 years to renew fleet

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Stuck on oil!!!

• In effect, we have an oil based transportation system with few substitutes.

• To make a transition away from one form of energy to another takes at least 2 to 3 decades!!!

• We are stuck with an oil dependant transportation system for the foreseeable future.

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We all look like oil junkies!!!

• Oil Addiction is bad for your health!!!

• Refusal to see reality

• Refusal to consider changing lifestyle

• Desperate search for alternatives to oil

• Biofuels, Renewables, Nuclear, Coal, Natural Gas, ANYTHING!

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To sum up

• Excessive dependence on oil for transport• Excessive dependence of industrial food systems on oil• Peak Oil is INEVITABLE – only timing uncertain (2005 – 2015 – 2020) • Limited substitution for oil• Any transition away from oil takes decades• Colossal capital requirements • Scaling up of any alternatives difficult, slow & expensive• There will be shortfalls in liquid fuels for transportation

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Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil

Increase resilience of human societies to

(1) Short fall in liquid fuels

(2) High energy prices

(3) High food prices

(4) Economic contraction

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Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil

• Home Composting• Organic Agriculture• Consolidation and expansion of domestic (household) economy• Land reform

• Promote sugar cane ethanol for ICE• Promote locally sourced biodiesel• Promote better public transport based on renewable energies

• Reconsider our thirst for economic growth & Development

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Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil

• NO MORE WANTON DESTRUCTION OF FARMLANDS!!!

• It is criminal and soon it will turn out to be suicidal

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Mitigation Responses to Peak Oil: Electrified Public Transport

1. Promotion of public transport – electrified buses and electric rail links

2. Switzerland is a good case study of electrified public transport that relies on renewable energy: hydro power (60%)

3. Abundant hydro power

4. Need to learn from Swiss experience

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Promotion of renewable energies & conservation

• Yes to Renewable Energies

• But remind yourself of costs & time frame required for any transition

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Transition to sustainability

Our world, based on a linear, expansionist economic system totally reliant on fossil fuel is dying

The world to come is not yet born

The transition will be slow, difficult and hard, but not impossible

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Time to Act Now!!!

• Consumer society is dying

• It is already quite late!!!

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The End! At Last!

Thank you for listening!