Energy Essay ECO3012- Rhiannon Busby

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1 | Page FACULTY OF ARTS & SOCIAL SCIENCES ECONOMICS COURSEWORK COVERSHEET Coursework Details Module Name and Code ECO3012 Coursework Title Energy economics Deadline 08/12/15 Word Count 4977 Student Details Student URN (7 digit number on Uni card) 6210217 Student Name Rhiannon Busby Programme Energy Economics Student Declaration To be agreed by Student Please refer to the University of Surrey Regulations for the Conduct of Examinations and Other Forms of Assessments and your departmental Student Programme Handbook for more information on Academic Misconduct and Plagiarism. Declaration: I confirm that the submitted work is my own work and that I have clearly identified and fully acknowledged all material that is entitled to be attributed to others (whether published or unpublished) using the referencing system set out in the programme handbook. I agree that the University may submit my work to means of checking this, such as the plagiarism detection service Turnitin® UK. I confirm that I understand that assessed work that has been shown to have been plagiarised will be penalised. By completing and submitting this form, I confirm that: I have read and fully understand the University’s Regulations and guidance on Academic Misconduct and Plagiarism This submission is my own work All quotes and sources have been fully and properly attributed and referenced This work has not been previously submitted, in full or in part, for the purpose of assessment at this or any other institution No effort has been made to subvert plagiarism detection processes of the University This submission may be transferred to and stored in the Turnitin Plagiarism Detection database for the purpose of plagiarism detection now and in the future I understand that all required work must be received within the published deadline I understand that work received after the published deadline will be penalised in line with University Regulations I understand that any request for mitigating circumstances must be made formally via the Student Liaison Officer, using the appropriate form and including evidence; the application and associated evidence must be received by the stipulated date

Transcript of Energy Essay ECO3012- Rhiannon Busby

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FACULTY OF ARTS & SOCIAL SCIENCES

ECONOMICS COURSEWORK COVERSHEET

Coursework Details

Module Name and Code ECO3012

Coursework Title Energy economics

Deadline 08/12/15 Word Count 4977

Student Details

Student URN

(7 digit number on Uni

card)

6210217 Student Name

Rhiannon Busby

Programme Energy Economics

Student Declaration To be agreed by Student

Please refer to the University of Surrey Regulations for the Conduct of Examinations and Other Forms of

Assessments and your departmental Student Programme Handbook for more information on Academic Misconduct

and Plagiarism.

Declaration: I confirm that the submitted work is my own work and that I have clearly identified and fully acknowledged all

material that is entitled to be attributed to others (whether published or unpublished) using the referencing system

set out in the programme handbook. I agree that the University may submit my work to means of checking this,

such as the plagiarism detection service Turnitin® UK. I confirm that I understand that assessed work that has been

shown to have been plagiarised will be penalised.

By completing and submitting this form, I confirm that:

I have read and fully understand the University’s Regulations and guidance on Academic Misconduct and Plagiarism

This submission is my own work

All quotes and sources have been fully and properly attributed and referenced

This work has not been previously submitted, in full or in part, for the purpose of assessment at this or any other institution

No effort has been made to subvert plagiarism detection processes of the University

This submission may be transferred to and stored in the Turnitin Plagiarism Detection database for the purpose of plagiarism detection now and in the future

I understand that all required work must be received within the published deadline

I understand that work received after the published deadline will be penalised in line with University Regulations

I understand that any request for mitigating circumstances must be made formally via the Student Liaison Officer, using the appropriate form and including evidence; the application and associated evidence must be received by the stipulated date

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Natural gas is often seen as a bridging fuel towards the ultimate goal of generating clean energy.

Discuss with reference to the international gas markets.

Rhiannon Busby

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Introduction

Like oil and coal, gas is a fossil fuel, however its properties are significantly different, which have led

it to be sought after as a bridging fuel. A bridging fuel in this context is a lower-carbon alternative fuel

used in transition between use of high carbon emission fuels and low/zero carbon emission fuels. This

essay will look into the benefits and drawbacks of using natural gas as an intermittent fuel whilst

low/zero carbon fuels are further developed.

History of gas

The first commercialised gas was used in Britain around 1785 to light streets (American Public Gas

Association, no date). In 2013 around 3500bn cubic meters were demanded globally and gas accounted

for 21% of the global primary energy mix (IEA, no date). Prior to the 20th century gas was used locally

as there was no method of transporting large quantities of gas over long distances, the industrial

revolution was mainly powered by oil and coal. Further improvements to the technologies transporting

gas allowed it to become more popular however impracticalities prevented it from becoming a real

contender. Oil has a higher energy density when compared to gas and coal, the high costs of

transportation, as well as the difficulty of extracting gas from the ground allowed oil to flourish within

the energy market. This was until technology improved in hydraulic fracking and LNG (liquid natural

gas). These technologies allowed more gas to be extracted from the wells but also made it commercially

viable to transport over long distances. Following these improvements in technology, gas became a

much bigger player in the market.

There are many reasons as to why gas is becoming so popular, there are large reserves spread across

the world leading to improvements in energy security of many countries, it is a far cleaner fuel when

burnt than coal or oil, following on from the improvements in technology its price is becoming more

competitive and it doesn’t present issues such as safety issues (as does nuclear power) or intermittency

issues (as do renewables).

The US was particularly interested in increasing its use of natural gas because it has such large reserves,

(proven gas reserves in 2014 were at 388 trillion cubic feet), a new record (U.S. Energy Information

Administration, 2015a). Having such large reserves allowed them to increase their energy security as

they would be less dependent on countries such as Russia to provide them with their energy. It also

meant that they could become less reliant on imports. In the latest annual energy outlook, the US expects

to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2017 (EIA, 2015f). Another benefit of gas is that plants used

to create energy have very short start up and shut down times, this allows them to be used as intermittent

sources of energy in conjunction with renewables and in the past has been used as a back-up fuel. For

example following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, Japan’s consumption of liquid natural gas (LNG)

increased by 20%-30% year on year (Miyamoto, Ishiguro & Nakamura 2012). The European gas market

is different. The US have the upper hand of gas fields being in workable geographical locations whereas

countries in Europe are more densely populated which makes receiving permission to dig more

complicated and less likely. Therefore the European market is more likely to import gas supplies

(Rogers, 2015). LNG prices differ dramatically worldwide, the Asian LNG market shows the highest

prices (IEA, 2014). Most of the natural gas in Asia is imported as LNG and in the past has been traded

on a spot and short term basis and hence has followed the oil prices (EIA, 2015e). Having said this,

Asia is now developing trading hubs in order to align natural gas prices to the natural gas market. Given

Europe’s uncertain demand, North America’s dramatic decrease in dependence of imports, the growing

Asian demand and high prices, many suppliers are looking here to supply. Demand for gas within the

Asian market has increased by an annual average of 6.3% between 1995 and 2014 (Rogers 2015b).

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Why is gas better than oil?

Natural gas is a mixture of many different hydrocarbons, it is mainly made up of methane (between

70% and 90%) but also contains other hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide, nitrogen and hydrogen sulphide

(IEA, no date). “Natural gas is the lowest-carbon hydrocarbon, odourless, colourless and non-toxic”

(Shell, no date). The largest producers of natural gas are the US, Russia, Canada, Qatar and Iran, the

largest consumers of natural gas are the US, Russia, China and Iran (IEA, no date).

Even though oil production has been growing, gas production has been growing at a fast rate.

Source data: BP statistical review, 2015

Gas is a resource in its own right, it is separate from oil (although can be found within the same wells)

and thus has its own reserves and is not dependent on crude oil, it has its own market and own prices.

Unlike oil, there are no depth limits to where you can find it, gas can therefore act as a substitute for oil

which is important if it were to be used as a bridging fuel (Bhattacharyya 2011). Arguably the US is the

biggest success story for natural gas, however lots of other counties have made progress towards natural

gas explorations. Canada already produces tight gas1, CBM2 and small amount of shale, Australia has

shown good CBM potential as well as China, India and Indonesia having produced small amounts of

unconventional natural gas (IEA, no date). OECD sights North America3, Australia, East Africa and

Russia as having potential to supply significant volumes of LNG over the next ten years (OECD 2014).

“Conventional recoverable resources are equivalent to more than 120 years of current global

consumption, while total recoverable resources could sustain today’s production for over 205 years. All

major regions have recoverable resources equal to at least 75 years of current consumption” (IEA,

2011). There has also been a large increase in unconventional natural gas resources which are estimated

to be as large as conventional resources (IEA, 2011). However even if a country does carry the

resources, it does depend on whether permission is granted as to whether these supplies can be used.

Recently there has been a large increase in the production of shale gas (a type of natural gas), largely

from the United States. The advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have allowed

energy companies to increase their production of shale gas so that is now the world’s largest producer

1 Tight gas is gas that is produced from reservoirs with low permeability- it requires strong hydraulic fracturing

in order to produce the gas economically 2 CBM gas is gas produced from coal bed methane as opposed to shale (shale gas) 3 North America here includes North America and Canada

0

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250

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Gas and Oil ProductionIndex, 1970=100

Gas Production Oil Production

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of natural gas (EIA, 2015c). Now that the US has surpassed Russia to become the world’s largest

producer of natural gas, as well as other countries also producing increasing amounts, countries can

diversify their reliance on producers, improving their energy security.

The geological conditions for gas are much less severe than they are for oil. As a result the cost of

producing gas is pushed down. Oil can only be found at certain depths which means that gas is much

more abundant than oil (Rogner, 1989). The domestic success of the US in the LNG market, caused a

significant drop in imported gas, combined with the general drop in global demand following the 2008

financial crisis a sudden decrease in demand for imports occurred (mostly from Qatar), causing a glut,

consequently prices fell in the US and Europe. Since 2010 global demand has recovered substantially

however as the US and Canada are proceeding to export LNG, they are no longer attractive markets.

(IEA, no date).

Natural gas can be used as a bridging fuel as it produces less green-house gas emissions compared with

oil and carbon. Oil emits 73.3 tCO2 per TJ, whilst gas emits 56.1 tCO2 per TJ which is 30% less CO2

emissions than oil (Bhattacharyya 2011). It is a far cleaner fuel to use between now and when we are

fully reliant on renewable clean energy resources. 2°C is the maximum increase in global surface

temperature that the world has agreed we cannot surpass (FT, no date). The move to renewable energy

is ongoing and therefore if we are to simply wait for renewable energies to become mainstream and

reliable, we would likely surpass this 2°C maximum temperature increase. By switching to gas, we are

able to decrease our CO2 emissions whilst we wait for non-carbon substitutes to become viable.

Why gas is a good bridging fuel?

Gas is the best fuel to use because it provides a cost effective fuel towards a low carbon future. As we

have explained above, natural gas is not restricted by unforgiving geographical barriers. Liquid oil can

be found up to a certain depth (Bhattacharyya 2011). Gas does not have these barriers, which means it

is in large abundance. Second to this, due to the properties of gas4, producers are able to extract it at

relatively low cost filtering through to cheaper prices (MIT, 2011). The properties also allow gas to be

economically extracted from unfavourable subsurface environments5 whereas there are many oil wells

that are not economically viable. Because gas has become more cost effective, it is able to enter the

market and compete with oil. This is particularly good in essence as a bridging fuel because it allows

the market to improve upon the externalities it has created, allowing the government to focus solely on

the improvement and integration of renewables within the market. “Of the mean projection,

approximately 9,000 tcf could be developed economically with a natural gas price at or below $4/

Million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the export point” (MIT, 2011). This will allow, for the US

economy, gas to be used as a relatively low cost fuel and in the process reduce CO2 emissions.

Natural gas has favourable qualities when compared it to oil or coal. It has the lowest carbon intensity

of all fossil fuels (emitting less CO2 per unit of energy generated than other fossil fuel (MIT, 2011)

therefore when burnt to produce electricity, it does so cleanly. MIT (2011) found “that increased

utilization of existing natural gas … power plants provides a relatively, low cost short-term opportunity

to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by up to 20% in the electric power sector, or 8% overall, with minimal

additional capital investment in generation and no new technology requirements”. Gas requires much

less processing than oil- this further increases the argument for gas as a bridging fuel as both the

generation of electricity and the processing of the fuel are less carbon emitting for gas than they are for

oil (MIT 2011). This limited processing, has allowed gas to enter numerous markets, including domestic

heating, cooking, fuel for vehicles and many other ventures. This increasing range of uses allows gas

4 The properties of gas include high compressibility and low viscosity 5 Two key subsurface drivers of well cost are depth and well pressure (IEA 2012)

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to be a bridge between our current energy mix and renewable energy sources. For an energy to be

implemented into a market, you need it to supply the demand for the energy source you are trying to

remove. The fact that the increase in gas has been driven by the market and not by government policy

shows that it has strong potential to replace oil and thus be used as a bridging fuel (SEI 2015).

As explained before, one of the issues with renewable energy is that they are intermittent. This means

that it is not always possible to produce the energy demanded. For example, electricity cannot be stored,

therefore electricity demand needs to be met immediately with supply. A fossil fuel such as solar, can

only be used in the hours of sunlight, as well as this, there are specific angles at which the solar panels

have to tilt to be able to maximise the amount of sunlight absorbed. Tidal power has only four points

within the day that it can generate energy. Even if surplus electricity was generated, you could not store

the excess. Natural gas plants can be used in conjunction with intermittent sources of energy such as

these. This is because to start up and shut down a gas-fired plant is very quick, thus can be used when

the energy sources such as solar drop out. This ability of natural gas to be used as an intermittent has

allowed gas to penetrate the US electricity power sector by 30% (MIT 2011). This in itself is a benefit

of using natural gas as a bridging fuel because whilst renewables are being developed gas can act as the

accompanying fuel to meet peak demand and back up renewable energy sources.

Looking forward, this is one of the issues that renewable energies face, and one of the reasons that we

cannot fully move towards renewables now. If we were to use natural gas as a bridging fuel, not only

would it allow us to reduce carbon emissions but it would provide us time to continue to develop and

increase our use of renewables whilst research is undergone into more viable and long term solutions

(whether they be renewables, CCS6 etc.).

As we have seen, gas can act as a bridging fuel, but it also has unintended positive consequences. Given

the reliance on energy within developed countries, energy security is important to countries as failures

in supply7 could cause major problems to an economy. There are three main indicators of dependence:

import dependence; energy mix and stocks of critical fuels. By increasing the consumption of gas, and

reducing reliance on other fuels, both your energy mix (assuming you start with a lower relative

consumption of gas than other fuels) and for most countries, your import dependency, improve. By

improving on these two factors you are bettering your energy security which is an added benefit to

moving away from fuels such as oil. In the future, renewables could also provide countries with these

benefits. We could move away from an energy market with historically unpredictable and volatile

prices. This would allow for the planning of the energy market to improve as better forecasts to returns

of investments could be made.

Issues with gas as a bridging fuel

Even though there is a strong case for using gas as a bridging fuel, there are still issues associated with

the use of the fuel as an intermediary, as well as with the production itself.

The significant increase in shale production over the past few years have caused some environmental

concerns to be voiced. Many of these concerns stem from hydraulic fracturing and the risks of toxic

fracture liquids finding their way into public water supplies. Following on from these concerns

restrictions in potentially productive areas within the US have been implemented, this is whilst the US

Environmental Protection Agency is conducting an extensive review of hydraulic fracturing as well as

introducing legislation into responsibility and awareness of chemicals (FRAC) Act in the 09-10

6 Carbon capture storage is a technology that allows the capture of carbon dioxide emissions into a container that

can be buried instead of releasing the emissions into the atmosphere 7 Examples of failures in supply could be by means of political friction, failure of a supply technology, or

breakdown of supply infrastructure

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congress (MIT 2011). In order for gas to be a successful transition fuel, clear rules and regulations would

have to be put into place. There are also calls for governments to subsidise the research and development

into technologies that will counter negative impacts fracking has on the environment. (SEI 2015).

Second to this issue, is the possibility of methane gas leakages from the production and transportation

of natural gas. Even though methane has a much shorter lifespan in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide

does, it has a higher global warming potential, 34 times the rate of CO2 over a time horizon of 100 years

(Myhre et al. 2013). As explained above methane is the primary component of natural gas and leakages

can occur at all stages of production and distribution. (Newell & Raimi 2014) noted that methane

emissions from natural gas production accounted for roughly 10% of all natural gas related green-house

gas emissions. They find that “most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in

electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases,

although as an electricity substitute depends on the electricity mix displace”. The report concluded that

shale gas development has had a net positive effect so far on US greenhouse gas emissions however the

effects of methane leakages still needs more research undertaken. The report also suggested that policies

incentivising the switch to better technologies such as renewables and CCS’ need to be formed and for

these policies to improve the cost-competitiveness of the technologies.

Aside from this however, the issues are drawn from the use of gas as a bridging fuel. Firstly the increase

in demand for gas must be met with a decrease in demand for oil and coal, gas must act as a substitute

not a compliment. In order for gas to be used as a bridging fuel, for all the above reasons, it needs to

replace what is harming the environment now. If the increase in demand was secondary to the use of

oil and coal, you would only be ruining the environment further and the benefits from gas as a bridging

fuel would be dampened, if present at all. The purpose of using gas in this way is to reduce carbon

emissions in order to buy us time to further research and develop the renewable energies we have now,

and will have in the future. By not moving the demand away from oil and coal, towards gas you do not

buy yourself any time for these improvements to take place, and the risk of the global temperature

change increasing over 2°C is greater.

Whether gas can decrease carbon emissions depends on how much coal is replaced by gas, and also by

how much renewable energy and nuclear power is replaced by gas. Gas has the lowest carbon-intensity

of all fossil fuels (MIT, 2011) so switching to it will reduce emissions however the effect is dampened

if gas is used to substitute away from renewables or nuclear. I will discuss the replacement of nuclear

and renewable energy later on, at this moment I will outline the benefits and drawbacks to using gas

depending on what it substitutes. As a rule of thumb (Newell and Raimi, 2014) concluded that if the

amount of coal energy displaced is greater than the amount of renewables and nuclear displaced, there

will be an overall reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Following from this, depending on what sector

gas is used as a substitute, gives different levels of net benefit.

There may be a risk that gas displaces some non-carbon energies such as solar and nuclear because it

can be produced at a lower cost, many studies refer to the displacement of nuclear power and renewables

by gas because of both consumer demand favours cheaper options and hence the switch of investment

away from low/zero carbon options (Newell & Raimi, 2014). This could change following more

research into improving the efficiency of renewables however it will be difficult to move consumers

away from a cheap source of energy to a dearer option. Newell and Raimi (2014) explore the effects of

substitutions away from current energy supplies towards gas, and show how the net effect of this

substitution may not necessarily be positive. As explained above if gas prices were to fall, the additional

savings and the lower price in itself would cause an increase in overall energy demand, thus increasing

green-house gas emissions. But second to this, people would start to substitute away from other energies

towards gas. If people were to substitute away from energies like coal and oil, this would likely lead to

an overall drop in emissions, however if people were to substitute away from zero carbon fuels such as

nuclear and solar, this would lead to an overall increase in emissions.

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As we can see from this figure, when used as a transport fuel gas offers a small to negative benefit to

the overall emissions impact8. By contrast using gas as a substitute for heat applications the relative

emissions benefit from gas is 14% when compared to oil and 23% when compared to coal (SEI, 2015).

However we know that gas is a very flexible fuel therefore it could be possible to use gas as a substitute

in the sectors that provide the best benefits to the environment. But to do this, you would have to make

sure that where it doesn’t provide a benefit, it is not used. For this to be possible it is likely policies

would have to be implemented to make sure gas replaces the correct fuels under the correct

circumstances. For example, are vehicles available that use gas as a fuel and not oil? How expensive is

the local price of gas relative to other fuels? (SEI, 2015). Gas used as a substitute for energy sources

such as nuclear and renewables will clearly provide negative benefits. We will explore this idea later.

This is why if gas were to be used as a bridging fuel, it would require policies that incentivised further

research and development into renewables in order to make them more price competitive and broadly

available and policies against these high emission fuels once the appropriate substitutes were available.

The rebound effect should also be considered. For those areas that gas would be cheaper than oil,

because of local supplies, subsidies and tariffs etc. the cheaper price of energy could increase our

consumption. The rebound effect is split into three categories.

1) The direct rebound effect- this says that a decrease in price of energy, causes us to increase our

consumption9.

2) Indirect rebound effect- this states that the savings the consumers receive from a lower price

causes an income effect, increasing their consumption of other goods which requires more

energy.

3) Tertiary effect, this is where aggregate demand picks up, increasing activity within the

economy.

8Using gas as a transport fuel offers greater emissions when substituting for gasoline in passenger light duty

vehicles whereas for diesel in heavy duty truck operations it offers less benefits- however the literature does

disagree to some extent (Newell & Raimi 2014) 9 A decrease in price causes the consumer to move down the demand curve towards an equilibrium output that is

greater than it was prior to the price change

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These effects show that unit by unit gas may be able to provide efficiencies however if the overall

consumption of energy increases as a result of lower prices, the benefits of using gas as a substitute

could be offset.

Will gas replace oil?

There are mixed reviews regarding whether gas can actually replace oil as our main source of fuel. This

stems from many opinions from how gas can be transported, where it can be used, how cheap it would

be on the market and therefore how much competition it would impose towards oil. Some believe that

gas simply doesn’t form any kind of competition from oil (Rogers, 2015) but that it will be able to

substitute for coal (EIA, 2015b).

The replacement of coal by gas is more widely accepted. For example at the same time, in the US the

share of coal in the power sector is expected to drop 5 % points by 2040 whilst natural gas’ share is

expected to increase by 4 % points to 31% (EIA, 2015d). The replacement of oil energy supplies in

favour of natural gas is more difficult for the UK. We expect that the UK would have to drill 700 shale

gas wells for the next 10 years to cover 10% of the energy demanded (Rogers, 2015). Whether gas can

take over from oil depends on how easy it is to switch. For a country that would need to import gas, the

cost would rise due to the cost of transporting gas over long distances. There are two ways of doing

this. One is to expose gas to high speeds and pressure and distribute it through long distance pipelines.

The other, which is becoming ever popular, is to cool the gas down to -162°C to turn it into a liquid,

and transport it under atmospheric pressure, this however is expensive (Rogers, 2015). Having said this

the BG group reported the start-up of 6 new LNG terminals in 2014 (BG group 2015) showing that

contrary to the high cost, demand is increasing.

Progress in renewables

So far I have discussed some causes for and against the use of gas as a bridging fuel. However one

cannot create a functional bridge without two objects to connect it to. Gas cannot be used as a bridging

fuel, without a renewable future to bridge to. The future for renewable energy is uncertain. We now

have the technology to produce energy from sources such as wind and solar however making these

viable for day-to-day use is another stepping stone that needs to be overcome before we are able to step

off that bridge to the other side.

Solar power in the UK for example can only generate electricity if the sun is out, if you were to use

solar power to provide electricity you could only do so at certain times considering there is no way to

store electricity. Wind farms face a similar problem but also are often argued against because they are

‘unsightly’. To correct this one can build offshore wind farms however this is considerably more costly

than onshore.

The government up until now have been subsidising the renewable sector however some would disagree

as to how well managed this system has become. For example a policy was introduced that provided

households with solar panels dependent on certain conditions10. These solar panels could either provide

you with electricity or heat your house. Second to this, part of the scheme allowed you to make money

from generating electricity from these solar panels by selling back electricity to the national grid. Of

course at face value this seems like a good idea, allowing individual households to learn the benefits

from using renewable technologies such as lower household bills and improving the environment in the

process. However by doing this, the UK government spent money on providing a technology that

10 Conditions could be for example the direction your house faced, and the energy certificate your house has

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arguably isn’t viable yet, instead of using this money to better the technology and make it more

competitive within the market without having to incentivise people to switch.

Many papers reference that more research and development is needed within the renewables sector,

(MIT 2011), (Roberto F., Roberto 2011). However it seems that the UK has taken a U turn on its

subsidies for renewable energy ahead of the Paris energy summit 2015 (Pilita Clark 2015). The most

important factor in improving our environment and preventing further global warming is to improve

upon zero carbon emission fuels, otherwise there will be a point at which even gas with its lower carbon

emissions will start contributing significantly to global warming because of the growth in population

and thus an increased use of energy. Therefore for gas to be used as a bridging fuel, technologies must

be developed further to provide a non-carbon emitting form of energy that we can move onto.

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Conclusion

Gas has improved through better technologies allowing it to be used effectively as a source of energy

in many markets from electricity, heating and transport. Throughout this essay we have seen arguments

for the use of gas as a low carbon intermediary however we have also seen strong evidence against it.

We have seen it emits less carbon dioxide, however this does depend on where in the industry it is used.

We have seen that provides an alternative to oil that is not overly expensive however this does differ

geographically due to available resources and costly transport. With some policy adjustments, gas could

be used as a short term alternative which covers the first criteria of a bridging fuel. We have also seen

that it can act as an intermittent when renewables drop out, however there is a risk that renewables will

be replaced by gas. This is especially worrying when you look at the issues with the progress in

renewables. Even though we have had the Paris 2015 summit very recently, the formal implementation

of the agreement will only be implemented in 2021. Therefore the second criterion of a transition fuel,

whether a long term substitute will be available, is less definite.

Overall I believe that it is beneficial to use natural gas as a bridging fuel as the most important factor

we need to consider is reducing the impact of global warming and gas gives us the best opportunity to

do this quickly and without too much market intervention. However there are issues that are known

which should be taken into account. Policies need to be implemented to minimise the amount of

methane leakages that are permitted. In conjunction with using natural gas as a bridging fuel, we must

increase our research and development into renewables and nuclear in order to make sure that gas is

used as a bridging fuel and not a long term solution. We also need to better the education so that once

renewables are ready to be used internationally as a primary source of energy people are more accepting

of having to pay higher prices for this energy, which seems to be a likely outcome of renewables.

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References:

American Public Gas Association (no date) A brief history of natural gas. Available at:

http://www.apga.org/apgamainsite/aboutus/facts/history-of-natural-gas (Accessed: 27/11/15)

BG group Global trade summary for 2014 Available at: http://www.bg-

group.com/assets/files/cms/BG_LNG_Outlook_2014_15.pdf (Accessed 02/12/15)

Bhattacharyya, S.(2011) Energy Economics: Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance. London,

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