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© 2011 1 Energy Efficiency Potential Study Project Review Meeting Prepared for Energy Conservation and Management Division State of New Mexico, EMNRD by Global Energy Partners, LLC April 12-13, 2011
Transcript of Energy Efficiency Potential Study · energy analysis Utility data Market characterization EE...
© 2011 1
Energy Efficiency Potential StudyProject Review Meeting
Prepared for
Energy Conservation and Management Division
State of New Mexico, EMNRD
by
Global Energy Partners, LLC
April 12-13, 2011
© 2011
Topics
Introductions
Review of objectives
Status
Preliminary results*
Working session on data issues
Timeline for finishing
*slides with preliminary results are not included in this document
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© 2011
Purpose and background
Purpose
Conduct a statewide energy efficiency potential study to determine the potential for development of specific natural gas and electric energy efficiency measures in the various regions of New Mexico.
Information will be used by each utility in implementing cost-effective energy efficiency and load management programs under New Mexico’s Efficient Use of Energy Act (EUEA).
Background
EUEA directs New Mexico to support public utility development of all cost-effective energy efficiency and load management measures. These measures include removing regulatory disincentives and allowing rate recovery of energy efficiency and load management program costs. Under PRC rules, IOU gas and electric public utility must obtain PRC approval of energy efficiency programs, implement those programs, and report their results and costs.
No comprehensive statewide study has been conducted to date, although some entities have conducted their own studies.
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Objectives
Provide information to the public
Identify energy-efficiency measures that meet the total resource cost (TRC) test
Specify measures relating to housing and building structures and appliances
Address climate zones and other geographic considerations, as well as utility service areas
Describe and quantify the strategies for implementing those measures in a manner that produces the maximum achievable energy savings
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Overview of scope of work
Energy efficiency (EE) assessment
Identify, define and quantify technically feasible EE measures
Identify and rank those most likely to meet cost effectiveness requirements
Estimate realistic achievable potential
Demand response (DR) assessment
Identify, define and quantify DR options
Estimate realistic achievable potential
Strategy for achieving EE and DR savings
Program design
New technologies
Role of codes and standards
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Approach for estimating potential
Baseline forecasting
Customer surveys
Secondary data
Forecast data
Prototypes and
energy analysis
Market characterizationUtility data
EE measure list
Measure descriptionMeasure screening
Customer acceptanceProgram results
Best-practices research
Establish objectives
Base-year energy use by fuel, segment
End-use forecast by
fuel, segment
Technical and economic potential
Achievable potential
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Status overview – EE analysis
Activity Residential Commercial Industrial
Characterize market
Base-year profiles
Baseline forecast
Define measures
Estimate TP
Estimate EP
Estimate MAP, RAP
Define scenarios
Analyze scenarios
Develop strategy
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Status overview – DR analysis
Activity Status
Characterize market
Base-year profiles
Baseline forecast
Define DR options
Estimate potential
Define scenarios
Analyze scenarios
Develop strategy
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Preliminary baseline forecast results for residential and commercial sectors
The following slides present the market characterization, base-year market profiles and baseline forecasts
We also identify key forecast assumptions
Feedback on these assumptions and preliminary results is welcome, but must be provided by April 22
The Global team will reach out to each IOU and the rural coop association by the end of April to finalize
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Residential market characterization
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Total PNM El Paso SPS Non-IOU
# Customers 842,876 444,293 78,586 85,173 234,824
Sales (GWh) 6,478 3,240 622 1,002 1,613
Intensity (kWh/hh) 7,686 7,292 7,920 11,769 6,870
Gas Sales (MMTh) 291
PNM53%
El Paso9%
SPS10%
Non-IOU28%
Customers
PNM50%
El Paso10%
SPS15%
Non-IOU25%
Electricity Use
© 2011
Single Family47%
Multi Family
9%
Mobile Home
9%
Low Income35%
Residential customers and energy useby housing type (NM, 2009)
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Single Family42%
Multi Family12%
Mobile Home10%
Low Income36%
Single Family
48%
Multi Family
9%Mobile Home
7%
Low Income
36%
CustomersGas Use
Electricity Use
© 2011
Space Heating64%
Water Heating29%
Appliances5% Miscellaneous
2%
Residential energy use by end use –Across all segments and areas
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Cooling13%
Space Heating
7% Heating/
Cooling0%
Water Heating7%
Appliances33%
Interior
Lighting12%
Exterior Lighting
3%
Electronics15%
Miscellaneous8%
Electricity Use
Gas Use
© 2011
Residential end-use electricity forecastsNM total
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-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
An
nu
al U
se (
GW
h)
Cooling
Space Heating
Heat/Cool
Water Heating
Appliances
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Electronics
Miscellaneous
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
Use
pe
r H
ou
seh
old
(kW
h)
Cooling
Space Heating
Heat/Cool
Water Heating
Appliances
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Electronics
Miscellaneous
Total Electricity Use
Use per Household
© 2011
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
An
nu
al U
se (
MM
Th)
Space Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
Residential end-use gas forecastsNM total
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Total Natural Gas Use
Use per Household
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
Use
pe
r H
ou
seh
old
(Th
erm
s)
Space Heating
Water Heating
Appliances
Miscellaneous
© 2011
Summary of residential baseline forecast assumptions & results
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Default PNM El Paso SPS Non-IOUNM Gas
Company
Customer growth & annual growth rate
AEO 20111.8%
PNM1.7%
AEO 20111.8%
SPS0.5%
AEO 20111.8%
Assumed same as PNM
Weather
AEO 2011 Mountain
Census Division
PNM provided
2009, 2010; AEO applied
to future
AEO Mountain
Census Division
AEO Mountain
Census Division
AEO Mountain
Census Division
PNM provided
2009, 2010; AEO applied
to future
Fuel prices & growth rate
AEO 2011
PNM 2009, AEO forecast applied for
future
EPE 2009, AEO forecast applied for
future
SPS 2009, AEO
forecast applied for
future
EIA Form 861, AEO forecast
applied for future
EIA Form 176 for 2009, AEO
forecast applied for
future
Income AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011
Household size AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011 AEO 2011
Forecast annual growth rate
0.69% 1.31% 0.64% 0.33% 1.15% 1.29%
© 2011
Household growth projection and energy forecast results
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-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
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14
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15
20
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17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
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20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
GW
h
PNM El Paso SPS Non-IOU
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Ho
use
ho
lds
PNM El Paso SPS Non-IOU
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
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20
22
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23
20
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20
25
MM
Th
Low Income
Mobile Home
Multi Family
Single Family
© 2011
Residential electric appliance standards incorporated into the baseline forecast
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Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption 1st Standard (relative to today's standard)
2nd Standard (relative to today's standard)
End Use Technology 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Central AC
Room AC
Evaporative Central AC
Evaporative Room AC
Cooling/Heating Heat Pump
Space Heating Electric Resistance
Water Heater (<=55 gallons)
Water Heater (>55 gallons)
Screw-in/Pin Lamps
Linear Fluorescent
Refrigerator/2nd Refrigerator
Freezer
Dishwasher
Clothes Washer
Clothes Dryer
Range/Oven
Microwave
MEF 1.72 for top loader
Cooling
Water Heating
Lighting
Appliances
25% more efficient
25% more efficient
14% more efficient (307 kWh/yr)
MEF 2.0 for top loader
NAECA Standard
NAECA Standard
Conventional (355
kWh/yr)Conventional (MEF 1.26 for top loader)
Conventional (EF 3.01)
Electric Resistance
EF 0.95
Heat Pump Water Heater
Advanced Incandescent - tier 2
T8
EF 0.90
EF 0.90
Incandescent Advanced Incandescent - tier 1
SEER 14
EER 11.0
Conventional
Conventional
SEER 14.0/HSPF 8.0
SEER 13
EER 9.8
SEER 13.0/HSPF 7.7
5% more efficient (EF 3.17)
Conventional
Conventional
© 2011
Residential gas appliance standards incorporated into baseline forecast
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Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption
Next Standard (relative to today's standard)
End Use Technology 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Furnace
Boiler
Water Heater (<=55 gallons)
Water Heater (>55 gallons)
Clothes Dryer
Range/Oven Conventional
Miscellaneous Pool Heater Conventional EF 0.82
Appliances
AFUE 80%
EF 0.81 EF 0.82
EF 0.59 EF 0.62
Space Heating
Water HeatingEF 0.59
No Standing Pilot Light
Condensing Technology
Conventional 5% more efficient
© 2011
Small Office17%
Large Office22%
Restaurant3%
Retail9%
Grocery2%
Warehouse7%
School4%
College4%
Health22%
Lodging2%
Misc7%
Small Office16%
Large Office19%
Restaurant1%
Retail12%
Grocery1%
Warehouse14%
School7%
College4%
Health16%
Lodging3%
Misc7%
Commercial floor space and energy useby building type (NM, 2009)
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Floor space576 MSF
Electricity Use9,976 GWh
Small Office14%
Large Office11%
Restaurant4%
Retail10%
Grocery1%Warehouse
8%School
6%
College4%
Health26%
Lodging3%
Misc7%
Natural Gas Use247 MMth
© 2011
Commercial sector electricity use by building type and end use
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Inte
nsi
ty (k
Wh
/sf)
Intensity by Building Type
Cooling20%
Space Heating1%
Combined Heat/Cool
1%
Ventilation15%
Water Heating5%
Food Preparation
2%
Refrigeration5%
Interior Lighting
25%
Exterior Lighting
5%
Office Equipment
9%
Miscellaneous12%
End-use Share of Total Use
© 2011
Commercial sector electricity use by building type and end use
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Space Heating
53%
Water Heating
24%
Food Preparation
7%
Misc16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Inte
nsi
ty (t
ho
usa
nd
Btu
/sf)
Intensity by Building Type
End-use Share of Total Use
© 2011
Commercial electricity use by building type and end use
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% o
f To
tal
An
nu
al E
lect
rici
ty U
se Cooling
Space Heating
Comb Heat/Cool
Ventilation
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Refrigeration
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Office Equipment
Miscellaneous
© 2011
Commercial natural gas use by building type and end use
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
% o
f to
tal u
se
Miscellaneous Food Preparation Water Heating Space Heating
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Commercial end-use electricity forecasts
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Total Electricity Use
Intensity (kWh/sq.ft.)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
An
nu
al U
se (
GW
h)
Cooling
Space Heating
Comb. Heat/Cool
Ventilation
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Refrigeration
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Office Equipment
Miscellaneous
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
Inte
nsi
ty (k
Wh
/sq
.ft.
)
Cooling
Space Heating
Comb. Heat/Cool
Ventilation
Water Heating
Food Preparation
Refrigeration
Interior Lighting
Exterior Lighting
Office Equipment
Miscellaneous
© 2011
Commercial end-use gas forecasts
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Total Natural Gas Use
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
An
nu
al U
se (
MM
Th)
Miscellaneous
Food Preparation
Water Heating
Space Heating
Intensity (kBtu/sq.ft.)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2009 2012 2015 2020 2025
Inte
nsi
ty (k
Btu
/sq
.ft.
)
Miscellaneous
Food Preparation
Water Heating
Space Heating
© 2011
Commercial baseline forecast assumptions & results
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Default State of NM
Customer growth & annual growth rate
AEO 20111.8%
AEO growth applied to 2009
1.22%
WeatherAEO 2011 Mountain Census
Division
PNM provided 2009, 2010; AEO forecast applied for future
Electricity prices & growth rate
AEO 20112009 from EIA Form
861, AEO forecast applied for future
Forecast annual growth rate 2.01% 0.24%
© 2011
Floor space growth and energy forecasts
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Co
mm
erc
ial F
loo
r Sp
ace
(M
illio
n S
q.
Ft.)
Small Office
Large Office
Restaurant
Retail
Grocery
Warehouse
School
College
Health
Lodging
Miscellaneous
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
GW
h
Small Office
Large Office
Restaurant
Retail
Grocery
Warehouse
School
College
Health
Lodging
Miscellaneous
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
MM
thSmall Office
Large Office
Restaurant
Retail
Grocery
Warehouse
School
College
Health
Lodging
Miscellaneous
Floor Space
Electricity Use
Natural Gas Use
© 2011
Commercial equipment standards
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Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption
1st Standard (relative to today's standard)
End Use Technology 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Chillers
Roof Top Units
Packaged Terminal AC/HP EER 9.8
Cooling/Heating Heat Pump
Electric Resistance
Electric Furnace
Ventilation Ventilation
Screw-in/Pin Lamps
Linear Fluorescent
High Intensity Discharge
Water Heating Water Heater
Fryer
Oven
Dishwasher
Hot Food Container
Walk-in Refrigerator/Freezer
Reach-in Refrigerator
Glass Door DisplayEPACT 2005
Standard
Open Display CaseEPACT 2005
Standard
Vending MachinesEPACT 2005
Standard
Icemaker
Desktop Computer
Laptop Computer
Server
Monitor
Printer/Copier/Fax
POS Terminal
Non-HVAC Motors
Commercial Laundry
Pool Pump
Pool Heater
Office Equipment
Refrigeration
EPACT 2005 Standard
Conventional
Conventional
Miscellaneous
42% more efficient
18% more efficient
33% more efficient
2010 Standard
Conventional/Energy Star
70% Efficiency62.3% Efficiency
MEF 1.6MEF 1.26
Conventional/Energy Star
Cooling
Space Heating
Lighting
Food Preparation
2007 ASHRAE 90.1
EER 11.0/11.2
EER 11.0
EER 11.0/COP 3.3
Advanced Incandescent - tier 2Adv Incand - tier 1
Electric Resistance
Electric Furnace
Constant Air Volume/Variable Air Volume
T8
Metal Halide
EF 0.97
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
EISA 2007 Standard
© 2011
Commercial gas equipment standards
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Today's Efficiency or Standard Assumption
Next Standard (relative to today's standard)
End Use Technology 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Furnace
Boiler EF 0.76
Water Heating Water Heater
Oven
Fryer
Broiler
Griddle
Range
Steamer
Miscellaneous Pool Heater Conventional
Food Preparation
Space HeatingAFUE 76%
EF 0.82
EF 0.80
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
Conventional
© 2011
Discussion
Industrial sector analysis
Utilities will provide data by SIC code so we can define the segmentation
We are working with SWEEP to characterize appropriate measures
Sensitivity/scenario analysis
Avoided costs – need to develop a high and low estimates
Appliance/equipment standards – will analyze a scenario with more aggressive standards
Schedule for completion
We will hold several webcasts to review intermediate results in the coming month
Analysis complete by May 15
Final report completed by May 30
Final presentation week of June 13 or June 20
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© 2011
Contact Information
Global Energy Partners, LLC
Ingrid [email protected]
760-943-1532
Bridget [email protected]
858-780-2635
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