ENERGY EFFICIENCY &HUMAN ECONOMIC WELFARE By Garry Jacobs and Ivo laus

Club of Rome International Conference on The Future of Energy & Interconnected Challenges of the 21st CenturyBasel -- October 17-18, 2011

Sustainable Human Welfare2

SecurityPhysical Peace Energy ClimateSocialIncome & employmentHealth & retirementSocial stability PsychologicalAbsence of catastrophic threats Confidence in ourselves, our institutions & opportunities

Human Economic Welfare Index (HEWI)Composite index of human economic welfareEncompasses factors omitted by GDPMaintains utility of an easily measured index, e.g. CPIComponents of HEWIPersonal Disposable Income (PDI)Human Welfare Government Expenditure (HWGE)Full Employment Index (FEI) Economic Welfare Index (EWI) -- equalityCombined Education Index (CEI)Health Adjusted Life Expectancy Index (HALE)Energy Efficiency Index (EEI)3

Energy Intensity 1830-2000

Source : Marina Fischer-Kowalski and Helga Weisz, Transition to a Globally Sustainable MetabolismPossible and Impossible Futures Presented at the 2008 Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Nairobi, Kenya, August 2008; p. 7.Energy Intensity is Energy consumption per unit of GDP4

75%

Projected US Energy Intensity 2008-2035Source EAI. 2008 =15

15%Evolution of economy: Services now account for 78% of US GDP & 64% of global output

Fossil Fuel Energy Intensity for Selected OECD Countries 197020086

USA 60% UK 55% Switz 40%

Fossil Fuel Energy Efficiency Index (EEI)Relates fossil fuel energy consumption to Economic Welfare Household consumption expenditure + Government welfare related expenditureHealth EducationSocial protection & employment insuranceHousingEnvironmental protectionMeasures changes over sliding10 year periodsHigher EEI reflects investments in sustainabilityShift to renewable sourcesImproved energy efficiency Shift to less energy-intensive economic activities7

EEI for Select Countries: 1995 - 2008

Energy Intensity unit: Btu/ 2000 intl dollars PPP; FFEC in BTU per dollar. HWE in constant $2005 PPP8

FFEC in USA 27% in 18 years

CountryEnergy Intensity FFEC as % energy consumedFFEC/HWE 1995FFEC/HWE 2005FFEC/HWE 2008EEI 2005US9,14685%11499894184201.16UK5,45189%7667576552351.15Sweden8,85737%6356468342071.13India7,58292%1191198341.06Germany6,57385%7611673264991.05China13,91993%30386281811.04Japan6,63683%7707746574851.02Italy5,79391%6664648861281.01Brazil6,90660%5145550854780.98Spain6,48185%6104645557200.94

Trends in EEI 1975 to 200510

CountryFFEC/HWE for 1975FFEC/HWE for 2005EEI 1985EEI 1995EEI 2005EEI30 1975-05China81,58928,1811.221.041.041.65Sweden12,7744,6831.351.081.131.63UK13,2995,7651.211.131.151.57US20,1618,9411.401.071.161.56Japan13,7997,4651.331.011.021.46Italy10,5056,4881.231.011.011.38Spain7,3166,4551.021.030.941.12India8,6649,8341.000.921.060.87

Human Economic Welfare Index (2005)

CountryGDPPDIEWIFEICEIEEIHEWIHEWI as% GDPIndia2,2341,8211,6380.961.021.061,70276%China4,0762,0191,8270.961.061.041,92447%South Africa8,5045,7824,6900.691.061.013,46541%Brazil8,5055,4594,4200.921.120.984,47953%Turkey10,9778,2917,1120.841.081.026,59660%Croatia14,2718,6679,7200.801.031.008,03256%Mexico12,5639,4928,0600.961.041.068,46667%Russia11,86110,56410,2970.921.021.0510,11985%Korea, Rep22,78311,87511,7640.951.161.0513,60660%Spain27,37718,56920,0570.861.090.9417,67665%Japan30,31016,57118,1860.921.051.0217,91659%Italy28,14419,20520,0820.831.081.0118,19665%Germany31,37821,44923,7000.851.111.0523,50475%Sweden32,31916,18320,5920.891.161.1324,00174%UK32,69022,36423,4880.911.101.1527,19683%US41,83329,51627,4830.931.011.1630,14672%

Thank You

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