Energy efficiency gap, bounded rationality and the …...The role of energy and investment literacy...
Transcript of Energy efficiency gap, bounded rationality and the …...The role of energy and investment literacy...
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Energy efficiency gap, bounded rationality and the
role of energy related financial literacy
Kennedy school of Government, September 2018
Massimo Filippini
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Introduction
Energy efficiency gap and bounded rationality
Level of financial and energy related financial literacy in three European
countries
Paper: The Impact of Educational Programs and Online Support Tools on
the Choice of Appliances
Research questions and literature
Data and experimental design
Econometric analysis and results
Conclusions
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Outline
Energy related financial literacy, bounded rationality and the energy efficiency gap
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Energy efficiency gap and bounded rationality
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• To fight climate change we
need to cut CO2 emissions
in order to limit the average
global temperature increase
to 2°C
• Increase of the level of
energy efficiency is crucial
• Residential sector one of the
areas with the greatest
potential for energy savings
Source: International Energy Agency
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Energy efficiency and climate change
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Blasch et. Al. (2017) :
residential Swiss households;
disaggregate panel data ~30%
Alberini and Filippini (2016):
residential US states ; disaggregate
panel data ~25%
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inefficient use of electrical
appliances / heating system
Inefficiency in the use of energy in the residential sector may
be due to
low adoption of new energy-efficient
technologies (energy efficiency gap)
Energy consumption strongly influenced
by investment decisions (type of cars,
electrical appliances, houses,…)
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Energy efficiency gap
Social view: “We define the “energy-efficiency gap” as the apparent reality that some
energy-efficiency technologies that would be socially efficient are not adopted” (social
optimality). (Gerarden, Newell and Stavins (2015))
Private view: Individual decision-makers do not choose the most energy-efficient
technology, even if this technology is also the most cost-efficient choice (min lifetime costs).
Market failures
Negative externalities
Lack of information (information not salient
enough, only kWh,..)
Asymmetric information
…….
Behavioral failures
Bounded rationality
Prospect theory (status quo bias, loss
aversion,..)
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Bounded rationality and energy related investment decisions
• Renovation of a house, change of the heating system, substitution of an
electrical appliances, buying a new car,… are decisions that show benefits and
costs over a long period of time
From an economic point of view these decisions imply an intertemporal
optimization
In order to make these complex decisions, individuals need to collect
information, make assumption regarding the price, utilization over the life
cycle, perform an investment analysis or calculate the lifetime cost
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Different decision-making strategies
Rational consumer
make decisions using information
and cognitive skills to calculate
the lifetime cost
Rational decision-making
Choose the appliance that
minimizes lifetime usage cost
based on upfront price energy
price, intensity of use, lifetime
Bounded-rational consumer make decisions using limited information
and with cognitive constraints in
processing information
Heuristic decision-making
Choosing by comparing purchase prices
Choosing by comparing the energy label
Choosing by comparing energy
consumption
...
choices that are simply „good enough“9
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Age
Rational decision-making Heuristic decision-making
EducationIncome
Gender
Energy related
knowledge
AttitudesFinancial
literacy
……
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Level of financial and energy related financial
literacy in three European countries
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UNICEF: ability to use reading, writing and numeracy skills for effective
functioning and development of the individual and the community
In the last decades the word «literacy» has been used in a much broader
way, methaphorical way….information literacy, media literacy, scientific
literacy, financial literacy, energy literacy
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Definitions literacy
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Financial literacy:
“Knowledge of basic financial concepts, such as the working of interest
compounding, the difference between nominal and real values, and the
basics of risk diversification” (Lusardi and Mitchell (2008))
Financial literacy is usually measured using three questions
Interest rate
Compound interest
Stock option (risk diversification)
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Financial literacy
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Energy literacy:
Energy Literacy is an understanding of the nature and role of energy in the
world and daily lives accompanied by the ability to apply this understanding to
answer questions and solve problems.
(U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy )
Energy related financial literacy
the combination of energy-related knowledge and cognitive abilities that are
needed in order to take decisions with respect to the investment for the
production of energy services and their consumption
(Blasch, Boogen, Daminato and Filippini (2018)
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Energy literacy and Energy related financial literacy
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Energy related financial literacy measured with several questions
Lifetime cost
Energy prices
Usage cost of appliances
Knowledge of energy saving of different technologies
Interest rate
Compound interest
Stock option (risk diversification)
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Measurement of energy related financial literacy
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Source: Blasch et. Al. (2018)
Results for a sample of 4600 European householdsPenny project, EU
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|| 17Source: Blasch et. Al. (2018)
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Narrowing the energy efficiency gap: The impact of
educational programs, online support tools and
energy-related investment literacy
J. Blasch, M. Filippini, N. Kumar and A. Martinez
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1. What is the specific role of energy and financial literacy for the
choice/identification of cost-efficient appliances?
2. What is the specific role of educational programs and online support
tools for the choice/identification of cost-efficient appliances?
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Research questions
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The role of financial literacy
Lusardi and Mitchell (2007,2009) show that financial literacy has a positive
impact on financial decisions
The role of energy and investment literacy
Dwyer (2011) and Zografakis et. Al (2008)
Energy literacy has a positive impact on energy efficiency
Blasch et al. (2017a, 2017b), Brounen et al. (2013)
Positive impact of the level of energy and financial literacy on energy
efficiency
Insight from prior research (1)
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Effectiveness of energy labelling/information
Heinzle (2012), Newell and Siikamaki (2013); Houde (2014)
Mixed results on the impact of labelling on energy efficiency
Allcott and Taubinsky (2015); Allcott and Sweeney (2015), Blasch. Et. Al. (2017a)
Positive impact disclosing lifetime cost
No effect of more information trough sales agents on energy efficiency
Positive impact of providing monetary information on energy efficiency
Insight from prior research (2)
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Impact of providing information on operating cost
Blasch et. Al. (2017)
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We tested the effectiveness of providing more
information using an online randomized
control experiment
positive
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Effectiveness of decision support tools in saving and financial decisions
Goda et. Al. (2014) more information on retirement income projections has an
impact on saving
Bernheim (2001) and Savikhin (2013) provide evidence that visual analytics tools
and financial educational programs have positive effects on financial decisions
First paper to analyze the impact of educational programs and investment
calculators on energy efficiency
Insight from prior research (3)
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Experimental design and data
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Online randomized control experiment
Identify the appliance with lowest lifetime cost
Econometric methods the impact of energy and financial
literacy and educational program/ calculator on the probability to
identify the cost-minimizing appliance
'
2 1= ENLIT INVLIT TRSLIDE CALC EN MA TSL TCAL INV itCHOICE x INVCALC u
Based on a theoretical model we developed some hypothesis
Organized 2 online surveys and
collected data on Swiss households (N ~6000)
Socioeconomic factors,
Energy, financial literacy,
energy consumption,
appliances,…
Treated group
(educational program,
calculator)
Control group
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Two separate household-
level online surveys in
2016 from Switzerland
SHEDS (Household panel
survey)
covers German and
French speaking regions
of Switzerland
5,015 households
Representative sample
Data survey 1
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HSEU-Bern
Utility customers of EWB
( Region of Bern)
916 households
Representativeness
difficult to comment
limited availability of
reference data at regional
level
Data survey 2
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ExperimentIdentification of the most (cost-)efficient appliance
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Both surveys implemented a randomized controlled experiment to identify
(not to choose) the most cost-efficient appliance among two refrigerators
Random assignment to one of the three groups
CONTROL – the control group
TRSLIDE – treatment 1 that sees a set of education-slides
TRCALC – treatment 2 that has access to a simple web-based online
calculator
Experiment Design
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T1: slides
T2: calculator
Online randomized controlled experiment
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Experiment – treatments
Treatment 1
Treatment 2
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Experiment – treatment 1 (Slides)
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Experiment – treatment 2 (Calculator)
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Experiment – debriefing questionchoice of an investment analysis approach
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Descriptive statistics
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Econometric analysis
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Two binary choices
Choice to do or not to do a lifetime cost calculation
Correct identification of the refrigerator with the lower
lifetime cost
Bivariate probit (BP)
Recursive bivariate probit (RBP)
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Estimation Strategy
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Bivariate probit (BP)
The BP models the two binary decisions as a seemingly unrelated system
of two probit equations, and capture the correlation in the decision via the
correlation between the error terms
The BP models doesn’t consider the sequential nature of the decisions
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Estimation Strategy
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Sequential nature of the decisions
In the first step a lifetime cost calculation is carried out or not
In the second step, conditional on the result of the lifetime cost calculation, the
respondent chooses the refrigerators that he or she believes minimizes the
lifetime cost
Recursive bivariate probit
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Estimation Strategy
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Dependent variables:
choice of an investment analysis approach (INVES)
choice of the most (cost-)efficient appliance (CHOICE)
Explanatory variables:
socio-demographics (age, gender, education, income)
measures of energy and investment literacy
pro-environmental attitude
treatments
Control for ordering effects
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Estimation Strategy
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Results
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In a RBP, it is possible to compute a direct, an indirect effect and a
total marginal effect of a given variable on the second outcome, i.e.
identification of the refrigerator with the lower lifetime cost.
The direct effect of a variable occurs ‘directly’ in the second equation on
the selection of the refrigerator.
The indirect effects occurs via the effects on the decision to calculate
and compare lifetime costs (the first equation) as this decision variable
is also an explanatory variable in the second equation.
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Estimation results – marginal effects
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Estimation results – marginal effects An increase of the energy and
investment literacy increases the
rate at which individuals select
the most cost-effective refrigerator
Individuals who perform a lifetime
cost analysis are more likely to
choose the more cost-efficient
appliance
Both interventions are effective at
increasing the chances that a
cost-effective refrigerator is chosen
The online calculator is more
effective than the educational
program
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From an energy policy point of view the results suggest that to improve, at least
partially, the level of energy efficiency we could
Promote educational training on energy and investment related topics
Provide decision support tools such as online or mobile phone calculator tools
Provide decision support tools such as a calculator at the point of sale
empowerment of the consumers
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Conclusion I
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More general:
The effectiveness of the introduction of environmental taxes/subsidies can
increase if people are informed and have a high level of energy related financial
literacy
Mixture of energy policy instruments: education, information, taxes and subsidies
and standard
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Conclusion II
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Thank you for your attention!
Blasch J., Filippini M., Kumar N., Martinez-Cruz A. (2017). Investment literacy and Choice of Electric
Appliances: The Impact of Educational Programs and Online Support Tools, CER-ETH Working Paper No. 276.
Blasch, J. E., Filippini, M., Kumar, N. (2017). Boundedly rational consumers, energy and investment literacy,
and the display of information on household appliances. Resource and Energy economics
Blasch J., Boogen N., Daminato C., Filippini M. (2018). Empower the consumer! Energy-related financial
literacy and its socioeconomic determinants CER-ETH Working Paper No. 289.
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Questions/Discussion…