Dr Janet StephensonTalk for Transport Research Group

26 May 2014

The Energy Cultures team

Prof. Gerry Carrington physics/

engineering

Dr Paul Thorsnes

economics

Dr Janet Stephensonsociology/

human geography

Prof. Rob Lawson

consumer psychology

Prof. Barry Barton

law & policy

Dr John Williams

marketing

Dr Rebecca Ford

engineering

Dr Sara Walton

management

Dr David Rees

system dynamics

Dr Charles Sullivan

psychology; statistics

Dr Michelle Scottpsychology, HCI

Dr Debbie Hopkins

environmentalsociology

Dr Adam Doering

social science; transport

Alaric McCarthyEnvironmental

science

Dr Ben Wooliscroftmacro-marketing

Jane Khan, administrator

Energy Cultures research programme

Energy Cultures 1: 2009-2012

• Household space heating and water heating

• Energy efficiency

• Behaviour change

http://otago.ourarchive.ac.nz/handle/10523/3747 http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/handle/10289/7563

The Legal Framework for Energy Efficiency in Road

Transport:A Critique of Legislation,

Regulation and Policy in NZ

Kimberley Jordan LLM

Energy Cultures 2: 2012-2016

Part A: Energy efficiency

MBIE RFP:

“Considering the current pattern of energy usage in New Zealand homes, small businesses and transport, where do the ‘highest impact’ opportunities lie for energy savings and how can these be cost-effectively leveraged?”

Part B: Future Transport

MBIE RFP:

“In transport, what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation and how can consumers be encouraged to adopt them and encourage markets to deliver them?”

Reference Panel

• MoT• NZTA• Treasury• EECA• MBIE• Mercury Energy• Z Energy• Automobile Association• Express Couriers• Beacon Pathways• Sustainable Cities

Transport-related workstreams:Current – some results1.1 Data mining1.2 Household survey1.3 Businesses & energy

2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study2.6 System dynamics modelling

Just starting or upcoming1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators2.7 Youth mobility practices

1.1 Data mining

Dr John Williams Data sources

• Energy Data File

• Energy in NZ

• Energy Use survey (businesses)

• NZ Household Travel Survey

• MVR, WoF and Drivers' license databases

• IEA Scoreboard

• IEA Energy Statistics

Prof Gerry Carrington

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Data for 2011 from IEA Energy Statistics for OECD countries (2013 edn)

Road energy use as a percent of residential energy use

International Energy Agency, “IEA Scoreboard 2011”, IEA/OECD, Paris (2011)

Freight transportation: mode and energy use

• Energy used for freight transport (per tonne-km) increased by about 40% between 1990 and 2008

• In 2008, this was more than 60% higher than the average for 18 IEA nations

• NZ’s use of rail and water freight transport modes is much lower than the average for 18 IEA nations

Low-hanging fruit??

1.2 National household survey

Dr Ben Wooliscroft Partial results 700/2500

• Demographics

• House & appliances

• Energy behaviours

• Travel

• Attitudes

• Aspirations

• 143 questions!

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Driver efficiency

Transport opinions

• 78% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to school by car

• 74% - there should be less (or a lot less) trips to work by car

• 50% - there should be less (or a lot less trips) to go shopping by car

• 51% agree (or strongly agree) that “the Government should prioritise people moving under their own power when making roadingdecisions”

Public transport

• 92% - traffic congestion is a fairly important/very important problem for them

• 42% never use public transport; a further 42% less than twice a month

• 51% report that public transport is available to go shopping• 27% report that public transport is available to go to school• 28% report that public transport is available to go to work

BUT … REALITY CHECKING!

1.3 Businesses & energy

Dr Sara Walton

Most important factors in decisions about energy sources:

Interim findings:

Interest in using biofuels

Comments:

• Supply

– “access to supply would be the main factor”

• Sourcing

– “depends how biofuels are sourced and from what they are derived”

• Suitability

– “not yet sure of the suitability for present day piston engines”

Fleet efficiency actions?

Interest in EVs

Comments:

• Cost– “the capital cost of the vehicle would need to be

comparable”

• Current technology– “the technology is fast improving, the economics and

availability looking increasingly attractive”

• Charge– “Where would I plug it in?”– “Electric vehicles may not have the range”

• Clean– “really like the clean idea”

2.2 Future transport –international & NZ perspectives

Dr Janet Stephenson

1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport?

2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities?

Alaric McCarthy

Dr Debbie Hopkins

International & NZ Delphi studies

Delphi: an iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics• Build on each other• Check for consistency, agreement, quantiative

measures

International Delphi Panel (all but 3 international)Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).

Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour

Potential shocksLikelihood of occurring within 10 years

1 = low, 5 = highPo

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High – High:A: Political instability in oil-rich countriesB: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologiesC: Surge in public and political concern about climate change

High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs:Low potential to transformD: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countriesE: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected

High potential to transformLow likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs:F: Global price on carbonG: Acute resource scarcityH: Significant global economic decline

E

Low - Low:I: Political instability in China and/or IndiaJ: Readily available oil sources foundK: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion

A

B

C

Change Trends

Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years

1 = low, 5 = highPo

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High – High:A : Increasing investment in public transportB: Uptake of travel substitution technologiesC: Increasing public environmental concernD: Uptake of efficient carsE: Uptake of electric vehiclesF: Uptake of active transport

High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transformI: Decreasing youth car ownershipJ: Uptake of shared personal transportK: Decreasing youth car licensing

High potential to transformLow likelihood of becoming widespread:G: Uptake of autonomous vehiclesH: Substantial reduction in VKT

B

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E AC

FH

Interim results for NZ Delphi - Round 144/118 so far; average 15 years experience

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Government

Independent researcher

Non governmental…

Academia

Industry

Other

Consultancy

Number of participants

Most influential trends that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in

the next 20 years

1. Technological advancements (36%) (Intelligent

transport systems (ITS), vehicle safety technology, uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), improvement of battery technology, self-drive cars, travel substitution)

2. Rising fuel prices (34%)

3. Changing youth mobility (23%) (less likely to get

licences leading to less private-car travel)

Most influential innovations that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in

the next 20 years

1. Smart cars (34%) (Cars communicating with other cars and

transport infrastructure; driver behaviour real-time monitoring and feedback; semi-autonomous vehicles; driverless vehicles)

2. IT developments (27%) (integrated travel platforms;

smart PT information systems; travel substitution; intelligent transport systems)

3. Electric vehicles (25%) (Greater use, affordability and

availability; advances in EV tech; range increase; induction charging within the next 5-10 years)

Most influential step changes that might lead to significant change in NZ’s transport system in

the next 20 years

1. Fossil fuel price/availability (52%) (Oil / gas

supply constraints; oil / gas price shocks)

2. Climate change (34%) (more urgency, being taken

more seriously, changing public opinion, changing policy)

Delphi Rounds 2-4

• Degrees of agreement; timeframes; impacts of transport sectors; relative influence

• Developing a cognitive map of influences

• Contrast with International Delphi findings

What are implications for NZ transport?

2.6 System dynamics modelling

Dr David Rees Dealing with complexity

• Concept mapping

• Drivers of change

• Feedback loops

• Unintended consequences

Cognitive mapping with causal loops –priority given to private vehicles

Material culture

Energy practices

Norms and aspirations

Have

Think Do

An Energy Cultures perspective

Material culture

PracticesNorms

Transport cultures ….

Transport Culture

Material culture

PracticesNorms

Transport Culture

Transport cultures ….

Changes in material culture…

Changes in practices…

Changes in norms…

New transport cultures?

2.5a Transport Transitions in NZ

Dr Rebecca Ford

Dr Adam Doering

85 case studies

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More efficient engines

Alternative fuels

Appropriate vehicle choice

Driver behaviour

Carpooling

Car sharing

Journey Planning

Vehicle maintenance

Public transport

Active transport

More efficient vehicle design

Road infrastructure improvement

ICT Innovations

Raising awareness

Community visioning

No. of cases

Changing ‘transport cultures’

Changing ‘transport cultures’

http://energycultures.org

With many thanks to our funders...

Transport-related workstreams:Current – some results1.1 Data mining1.2 Household survey1.3 Businesses & energy

2.2 Future transport – international & NZ perspectives2.5a Transition agents in transport in NZ – scoping study2.6 System dynamics modelling

Just starting or upcoming1.4 PEP software to support decisionmaking in transport choices2.1 Business interest in adopting efficient/low carbon transport2.3 Business opportunities in future transport 2.4 Law/policy reviews – electric vehicles; cycling ... so far2.5b Driver motivations for efficient driving – instrinsic v extrinsic motivators2.7 Youth mobility practices