OIL

AND THE

ENERGY CRISIS:

THE FEDERAL

INVESTIGATIONS,

1980-1985 SUPPLEMENT

UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA

A Guide to

OIL AND THE ENERGY CRISIS:The Federal Investigations,

1980-1985 Supplement

Edited byMichael C. Davis

andPaul Kesaris

Guide Compiled byMike Acquaviva

A microfilm project ofUNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA, INC.

44 North Market Street • Frederick, MD 21701

Copyright ® 1986 by University Publications of America, Inc.,AII rights reserved.

ISBN 0-89093-695-1.

TABLE OF CONTENTSAcronyms ivReel Index

Reel I1980 11981 1

Reels ll-lll1981 cont 5

Reel IV1981 cont 101982 11

Reel V1982 cont 121983 13

Reel VI1982 cont 14

Reel VII1982 cont 161983 17

Reel VIII-IX1983 cont 17

Reel X1983 221984 221985 23

Reels XI-XII1984 cont 241985 24

Subject Index 30

ACRONYMS• AGA American Gas AssociationAPI American Petroleum InstituteDOI Department of InteriorEEMIS Energy Emergency Management Information SystemEIA Energy Information AdministrationEOR Enhanced Oil RecoveryERA Energy Research AbstractFRS Financial Reporting SystemGAO General Accounting OfficeGNP Gross National ProductGOM Gulf of MexicoIEA International Energy AgencyLDC Less Developed CountriesMMS Minerals Management ServiceMPS Monthly Petroleum StatementNEPP National Energy Policy PlanNODC Non-OPEC Developing CountriesNOLDC Non-OPEC Less Developed CountriesOECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting CountriesOCS Outer Continental ShelfPAD Petroleum Administration for DefensePSA Petroleum Statement AnnualPSM Petroleum Supply MonthlySPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve

REEL INDEXReel IFrame

0001 Selected Characteristics of the U.S. Oil and Gas Producing Industry: A 1977 Re-serves Report Supplement.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. D.J.Burke. February 1981. 78pp.This is the first of a series of reports prepared as an exploratory by-product of theanalysis of detailed oil and gas reserve and production data collected on the EnergyInformation Administration's (EIA) Form EIA-23, Annual Survey of Domestic Oil andGas Reserves. The principal product of the analysis is published as an annual reportcontaining estimates of proved oil and gas reserves by state and selected state subdivi-sions. This report supplements the 1977 EIA annual reserves report by presenting data,which either were not included in the reserves report, or were included in a more aggre-gated form. There is a general theme throughout the report centering on reserves own-ership and operation; however, not all facets of this initial report are equally developed.It is intended that this report stimulate a dialogue with those interested in elements of thedata presented, for use in the appropriate development of subsequent reports.

0079 Analysis of Federal Government Energy Emergency Programs. Energy PolicyStudy, Volume 5. AR/EI-80-05Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., Energy Information Administration. D.E.Serot. January 1980. 64pp.The economic implications of federal government programs for responding to an en-ergy emergency (i.e., a sudden, temporary reduction in energy supply) are analyzed.Section 1 considers both the effects of the limited duration of an emergency occurring;Section 2 describes the government energy emergency programs and discusses theireconomic implications; and Section 3 sets forth the framework for an analysis of thecosts and benefits resulting from enactment of the government programs. The energyemergency programs discussed were developed in response to the 1973 Arab oil em-bargo. They include; use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, enactment of price con-trols on crude oil and refined products, mandatory yield controls, gasoline rationing,mandatory conservation, mandatory fuel shifts, and supply enhancement programs.Thirty-seven references are appended in a bibliography. This is the fifth volume in theEnergy Information Administration's Energy Policy Study papers.

0143 Enhanced Oil Recovery: A Strategy for Improving Domestic Production.Lewin and Associates. Inc., Washington, D.C. 1980. 55pp.This document discusses a new strategy for enhanced oil recovery R & D. Until recently,our R & D strategy was to put in place a set of targeted cost-shared field experimentswith industry. The idea was that industry, using its own funds, would expand thesuccessful tests to field-wide production. Implementation of the ERA incentives for EORproduction in August 1979 has necessitated a change in this R & D strategy. We nowhave twenty-three cost-shared field projects underway, and more than sixty applica-tions for field pilots have been received by ERA. Taken together, these activities con-stitute a formidable laboratory of field experiments, although certain high-potential

targets still are not being addressed. In brief, the new strategy is to leverage roughly $:billion worth of investment, using a relatively modest level of R & D funding. The objecfive is to translate EOR technology from a black art to science by the mid 1980s. B1

doing this, the advanced EOR processes will move into consideration for commercirinvestment. This new strategy is in sharp contrast to the old one which essentiall-involved putting a group of field projects in place; this job has now been largely accomplished through the cost-shared projects and the ERA incentive activity. The first part othis document provides a brief overview of the domestic potential of EOR. It is followecby a comparison of predicted versus actual performance for several cost-shared fielctests. Next, several charts are presented which depict the industrial decision-usincprocess and the potential impact of advanced technology. Finally, a new federal EOFR & D strategy is discussed including an assessment of public benefits.

0198 Oil and Energy Demand in Developing Countries in 1990.RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California. Charles Wolf, Jr., Daniel Relies, and JaimeNavarro. June 1980. 19pp.In the study on which this paper is based, we try to develop some reasonable forecastsof NOLDC energy demands in the next ten years. Our focus is mainly on the demand foroil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements othese countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with ouiforecasts and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, weconsider the forecasts in terms of their implications for U.S. policies concerning theNOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

0217 International Energy Indicators.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Market Analysis. P.M. Weiss. May1981. 39pp.Tabulated data and graphic displays are presented for: world crude oil production foreach year since 1974; OPEC crude oil production capacity; world crude oil and refinedproduct inventory level for each year since 1975; oil consumption in OECD countries foreach year since 1975; USSR crude oil production for each year since 1975; and the freeworld and U.S. nuclear electricity generation for 1973 and the current capacity. Also,tabulated data and graphic displays are included on: U.S. domestic oil supply for eachyear since 1977; U.S. gross imports of crude oil and products for each year since 1973;landed cost of Saudi crude in current and 1974 dollars; U.S. coal trade for each year since1975; U.S. natural gas trade for each year since 1975; a summary of U.S. merchandisetrade for each year since 1977; and the U.S. energy/GNP ratio in 1972 dollars.

0256 Effect of the Leasing Schedule on Exploration of the OCS.Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter. A. Davidson. August 1980. 45pp.The effects of the leasing scheduleontheoptimal exploration strategy areexplored. First,the effects of the leasing schedule on drilling strategies for two areas of the OCS withidentical estimates on the probability of success before drilling but with different degreesof certainty about the accuracy of those estimates are discussed. Then two areas withidentical distributions of the prior probabilities of success are considered. Subsequently,two areas with different distributions of the prior probability of success are evaluated.Throughout the analysis, the value of the oil produced from a successful well and thecostsof drilling an exploration well are identical for any well drilled in either area. AppendixA gives a description of the dynamic programming formulation of the model used in thisanalysis. Appendix B describes an example of the use of the dynamic programmingmodel to evaluate the effects of the leasing schedule on the allocation of firms' resourcesto exploration over time. Appendix C offers a simple (nonquantitative) discussion of theeffect of the leasing schedule on a firm manager's ability to make optimal drillingdecisions. The announcement of the most recent OCS five-year leasing schedule is inAppendix D. Characteristics of the Beta distribution, which is used in the dynamicprogramming model, are discussed in Appendix E.

0301 Energy Policy Study. Volume 11. Federal Pipeline Regulation.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. B.P.Berlin. August 1980. 62pp.The technical characteristics of natural gas and petroleum pipelines are such that, in theabsence of federal regulation, each pipeline company could possibly, according totraditional economic analysis, behave as a natural monopolist. Federal regulation ofthese pipelines probably has, therefore, generally resulted in slightly greater supplies ofthe delivered produce (at slightly lower prices) than would have occurred in the absenceof those regulations. In addition to the cases of regulation and no regulation, twoalternative forms of possible federal pipeline regulation are presented. Specifically,regulation which would attempt to approximate a competitive solution could do so with theadoption of average cost pricing. This would result in some efficiency losses, since, at thatoutput, marginal cost is less than price. To achieve maximum efficiency (i.e., maximumoutput for a given amount of inputs) the regulation would need to require marginal costpricing. But since marginal cost pricing would result in losses for the firm, a subsidy wouldbe needed for the firm to survive. On the other hand, regulation which would attempt toinduce competition among pipelines would probably also result in efficiency losses, sincepipelines competing in an area would necessarily be smaller than a more efficiently-sizedmonopoly; hence the result would be higher prices and lower output than would resultunder the monopoly solution. If deregulation of the pipeline industries were to occur, thepetroleum pipeline industry would probably enjoy fewer competitive gains from deregula-tion than the gas pipeline industry would. This would result because present oil pipelineregulations do not, unlike gas pipeline regulations, restrict entry and because oil pipelineregulations have produced unusually high rates-of-return on equity for the stockholdersof those pipelines.

0363 Analysis of Refiners' Total Barrel Costs and Revenues from the Sale of PetroleumProducts, 1976 to 1979.Department ol Energy, Washington, D.C. Economic Regulatory Administration.November 1980. 122pp.In this report, the Economic Regulatory Administration has evaluated refiners' costs andrevenues from the sale of major petroleum products from July 1976 through December1979. This report represents a continuing effort to assess No. 2 heating oil prices andmargins in that it updates prior middle distillate studies through March 1980. The analysisexamines selling prices and costs associated with each major petroleum productcategory and a combination of petroleum products (total barrel) from a sample of ninerefiners. The total barrel approach was adopted to reduce distortions caused by varyingmethods of allocation of costs among regulated and unregulated products by refiners.This report determines the extent to which increased costs were recovered on controlledproducts and whether refiners obtained greater cost recoupment on decontrolledproducts than would have been allowed under continued controls. The principal methodsof measurement used to evaluate product pricing levels for the nine refiners surveyedwere cost recoupment (Chapter III), gross margins (Chapter IV), and net margins(Chapter V). Gross margins were derived by subtracting average crude oil costs fromaverage product selling prices for individual product categories and the total barrel. Netmargins were derived by subtracting average crude oil costs as well as averagemarketing, manufacturing, and purchased product costs from average selling prices forindividual product categories and the total barrel.

0485 Financing Development and Oil Imports in the Developing Nations.Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., Tennessee Institute for Energy Analysis. J.Rei/ly. December 1980. 100pp.Rising oil prices represent an additional drain on scarce capital resources in theoil-importing developing countries. Faced with higher oil import bills, these countriesmust make internal adjustments aimed at reducing energy consumption or generatingadditional foreign exchange. While these internal adjustments imply slower growth and

lower living standards in countries where vast segments of the population are alreadyimpoverished, failure to adjust can only mean ever-rising levels of debt and ever-greaterdependence on foreign assistance. Foreign borrowing was heavily used to spread outand ease adjustment during the 1973 and 1974 oil price hike. Examination of severalmeasures of debt load indicates incomplete financial recovery from these earlier oil pricehikes. As a result, most LDCs are in a considerably weaker position as they face the oilprice hikes of 1979, and private lenders are hesitant to extend additional loans. It isunlikely that concessionary aid will expand to fill the gap left by reduced private lending.Lack of external capital will force internal adjustment on these countries. Reducinggeneral consumption to pay for oil would have dismal consequences for those alreadyliving in poverty—politically, such a strategy would be nearly impossible. The alter-native—slower economic growth—while equally pernicious, is more likely to be chosen,if only because the consequences are less immediate.

0585 Refining Synthetic Liquids from Coal and Shale. Final Report.National Research Council, Washington, D. C. Energy Engineering Board. 1980.205pp.The purpose of this study was to determine the status of research and of technology forrefining liquids from oil, shale or coal, to recommend areas for future research anddevelopment emphasis, and to make recommendations on the roles of government andindustry in these areas. Refining is the link between the primary production of liquids fromthese solid hydrocarbon sources and the supply of liquid fuels meeting the requirementsof the various consumers. But use patterns and combustion equipment are expected tochange with time, and the compositions of liquids produced by the variety of raw materialsand conversion processes, which differ from those associated with petroleum, will alsoprobably change with time. Therefore, parts of this report are devoted to discussions ofliquefaction technologies and the corresponding liquid compositions, the committee'sview of coming changes in demand for various types of liquid fuels, and the possibilitiesfor evolution in end-use equipment. Today's refining technology for these syntheticliquids adds hydrogen to eliminate elements other than carbon and hydrogen and thusproduce substances similar to petroleum hydrocarbons. Because the manufacture anduse of hydrogen are the major sources of energy consumption and expense in refiningthese liquids, the technology and research needs for hydrogen manufacture are alsoconsidered in this study. Environmental and health problems are given careful attentionsince the raw liquids are known to contain toxic components.

0790 Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers 1980.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Energy Markets and End Use.December 1981. 120pp.The 1980 developments in fhe operations of major U.S. energy companies aresummarized and information is also presented for the period 1974 through 1979 toprovide for a historical perspective. The first section focuses on profit and investmentpatternsof companies (twenty-six) included in the Financial Reporting System (FRS). Anexamination is made of energy resource development activity with special attention givento oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and nonconventional energy. The FRS companies' refining andmarketing activity in 1980: as compared to earlier years is examined.

0910 1980 Legal Report of Oil and Gas Conservation Activities.Interstate Oil Compact Commission, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. October 1981. 34pp.Legal activities which have taken place throughout the U.S. and Canada during 1980 intheoil and gas industries are reported. The report includes legislative, administrative, andjudicial articles from twenty-nine states and the Canadian provinces of Alberta and BritishColumbia.

Reel II0001 Impact of Regulations—after Federal Leasing—on Outer Continental Shelf Oil

and Gas Development.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. Report toCongress. February 27, 1981. 76pp.This report analyzes the impact various regulatory requirements stemming from theOuter Continental Shelf Lands Act Amendments of 1978 and other legislation arehaving—after leases are awarded—on industry efforts to explore and develop OCS oiland gas resources.

0077 Actions Needed to Increase Federal Onshore Oil and Gas Exploration andDevelopment.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. Report toCongress. February 11, 1981. 152pp.This report analyzes how the exploration and development of oil and gas from Federallands could be accelerated. It identifies ways in which both the Congress and theadministration could open more lands to development and ensure the timely issuance offederal leases and permits.

0229 Current Developments Affecting Future Availability of Oil and Gas in the FreeWorld.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. California. I.Y. Borg. March 17, 1981. 95pp.This review focuses on developments during the last eighteen months likely to affect theavailability of oil and gas in coming decades. These developments include new dis-coveries (Hibernia, Beaufort Sea, Ivory Coast, the Western and Eastern Overtnrust Belts,and the Gulf of Suez). They also include new energy policies of both producer andconsumer nations that will ultimately affect supply. New policies and a rapidly increasingdomesticdemand may stabilize Mexico's exports at their present level, even if productionreaches four- to five-million barrels per day (b/d). Canada's new policy toward foreign oilcompanies operating within her borders may well stifle exploration and investment in bothoil and tar sand deposits. OPEC contract and pricing schemes are profoundly alteringdistribution systems and markets. OPEC plans to allocate oil arbitrarily in times ofshortage could disrupt the industrial world. Inability to reassign oil contracted for fromOPEC nations is forcing buyers to increase storage capacity. The oil inventories reportedare not equivalent to availability, since 50 percent to 90 percent is essentially unavailable.Thus, stock equivalent to 110 days of imports may include only a few weeks of primaryusable stocks. Only Sweden and South Africa have federally owned oil reserves thatcould meet demand for periods of months or years. Natural gas from the USSR willprobably comprise 30 percent of Western Europe's total supply in the 1990s, if plans toimport gasfrom the Yamal Peninsula cometo fruition. Soviet gas is seen as an acceptablealternative to undependable OPEC oil supplies and similarly unreliable gas supplies fromNorth Africa. However, the proposed increased dependency on the USSR may add a newdimension to Soviet and Western European politics.

0324 Petroleum Refining industry in the 1980s: Impact of the National Energy Plan andRelated Legislation.Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. D.L. Phung and R.N. Barnes.March 1981 38pp.This study assesses the impact of the National Energy Plan (NEP) and related legislationon the petroleum refining industry. Energy programs, including energy conservation andsynthetic fuel production, have been rather successful thanks to drastic oil price in-creases. Environmental laws require an additional investment of up to $20 billion (1980dollars) by 1990, which represents a gasoline price increase of about seven cents pergallon. This increase over a ten-year period is small compared to price increases due to

the policies of OPEC or to domestic price decontrol. A leveling of crude capacity isexpected in the petroleum refining industry in the 1980s. However, much more money willstill be needed to upgrade the facilities to process more transportation fuel and at thesame time reduce emission of pollutants. Also, a restructure of the refining industry infavor of large, integrated, and efficient refineries is expected.

0362 An Analysis of Oil Supply Disruption Scenarios. Final Report.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts Energy Lab. KnutAnton Mork. April 10, 1981. 40pp.This report brings the results of simulations of some oil supply disruptions on the M.I.T.Energy Laboratory Energy Macro Model. This model has previously been used to studythe macroeconomic effects of the 1973-1974 and 1979 oil price shocks, as well as forpolicy simulations related to these historical events. Recent extensions of the model allowit to be used for simulation of possible future oil supply disruptions, such as the loss of oildeliveries from Saudi Arabia or the entire Persian Gulf region.

0402 Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Policy.John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, Massachusetts. V.A. Davidson.April 13, 1981. 97pp.With the potential for disruption of oil imports from the Persian Gulf associated withpolitical instability in the region, the Department of Energy is interested in encouragingproduction of oil from all domestic sources. The unleased regions of the Outer Con-tinental Shelf (OCS) are a major untapped source of domestic oil. Estimates of undis-covered oil resources vary from 67 to 300 billion barrels of oil and natural gas liquidsoffshore to water depths of 200 meters. Therefore, the Office of Oil Policy in DOE isconcerned that the government process for leasing OCS tracts encourages production ofthese reserves. The purpose of this analysis is to determine if the current leasing processimpedes timely resource development. In addition, the current lease-sale process will beevaluated to determine if changes in the process might result in more efficient develop-ment of OCS reserves without endangering the environment and concurrent withensuring fair market value to the public. Also, changes in the bidding systems involved inallocation of leases to firms will be evaluated. Section I describes the extent of resourcesin the OCS, the current leasing process, and the goals of the leasing process. Section IIevaluates recommendations which may lead to improvements in OCS resource develop-ment.

0499 Markets during World Oil Supply Crises: an Analysis of Industry, Consumer, andGovernmental Response.Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter. S. Erfle, J. Pound, and J. Kalt. April 1981. 191pp.An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets ispresented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oilmarkets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and socialequity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the federalgovernment's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship betweenperceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures ofthese problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects ofa world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil toany consuming country including the U.S. Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empiricalanalysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of U.S. oil product markets to higher world oilprices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of U.S. oil firms to thealterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanationfor the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the U.S. oil industry. Chapter 5addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the U.S. duringperiods of world oil market transition.

0690 Macroeconomics and Oil-Supply Disruptions.Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter. R.G. Hubbard and R.C. Fry, Jr. April 7987. 723pp.Energy-economy interactions and domestic linkages have been used in a system ofmodels. Domestic economic aggregates are linked with a model of the world oil market bya core macroeconomic model with real and financial sectors. The model can be used toexamine the policy ramifications of various short-run scenarios. Demand factors are nottaken as exogenous to the world oil market, nor are oil prices taken as exogenous to theU.S. economy. Simulations of the model have generated endogenous cycles in the worldoil market, which then affect the U.S. economy primarily through output and inflationchannels. Policy simulation was centered around the short-run imposition of a disruptiontariff. The disruption tariff exhibited at least some of the desirable features noted by itsproponents, though it did not function as a shield against the short-run output loss forcedby the disruption. One might also simulate the rebate of tariff revenues as a reduction inthe Social Security payroll tax. Other possible simulations include the use of any of thefiscal and monetary instruments included in the model. The effectiveness of these otherpolicy instruments will be examined in a later paper.

0813 U.S. Energy Strategies: Some Options for Eliminating Oil Imports by the Year 2000.MITRE Corporation, McLean, Virginia. Edward G. Sharp et al. April 7987. 20pp.Topic areas discussed include: reasonable choices which eliminate the need for oilimports; potential domestic liquid fuel supplies; capital requirements for increaseddomestic liquid fuel supplies; potential for reducing liquid fuels demand; domestic naturalgas; other domestic energy resources; future domestic energy demands.

0833 Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers, 1979.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. July 7987.707pp.The purpose of this report is to examine year-to-year developments in the operations oftwenty-six major U.S. energy companies on a corporate level and also by major line ofenergy business and by major functions within each line of business. The period coveredis 1977 through 1979. Comparisons of income and investment flow are featured andrelated to functionally allocated net investment in place. The presentation seeks toidentify similarities and dissimilarities in results across lines-of-business activity or by firmsize.

0940 International Energy Indicators.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Market Analysis. R.M. Weiss. July1981. 29pp.Data are presented in graphs and tables on the following: world crude oil production byarea, annually, 1974 through 1980, and monthly, October 1980 through April 1981;OPEC crude oil productive capacity, installed, maximum sustainable, and available, bycountry; world crude oil and refined product inventory levels, 1975 (quarter IV) through1981 (quarter I); oil consumption in OLCED countries, 1975 (quarter IV) through 1981(quarter I); USSR crude oil production and exports, 1975 through April 1981; free world(by country) and U.S. nuclear electricity generation, 1973 through 1980 (annually) andJanuary to May 1981 (monthly) and current capacity by country: U.S. domestic oil supply(monthly) 1977 through 1980; U.S. gross imports of crude oil and products, 1973 and1974 annually, and 1975 through 1980 (annually) and monthly from January to June1981; cost of Saudi crude oil (landed) in current and 1974 dollars (monthly) fromDecember 1974 through March 1981; U.S. coal trade from January 1975 to March 1981;U.S. natural gas trade from January 1975 through April 1981; summary of U.S. merchan-dise trade, quarterly, from Quarter 1,1977 through Quarter 1,1981; and U.S. energy/GNPratio, annually. 1974 through 1980, and quarterly from 1974 through March 1981.

0969 Analysis of Economic Effects of Accelerated Deregulation of Natural Gas Prices.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. August1981. 127pp.An analysis of some of the economic effects that might result from deregulation of thewellhead prices of natural gas in 1982, rather than according to the schedule provided forby the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, is examined. In particular, the impact thataccelerated deregulation can be expected to have on natural gas prices, consumption,and supply; and the implications of these effects on oil and gas imports, consumerexpenditures, the inflation rate, and real Gross National Product are provided. Theappendices give projected data on supply, consumption by sector, prices, and producerrevenue according to cases reflecting varying policies.

Reel III0001 World Oil Market Outlook: Recent History and Forecasts of World Oil Prices.

Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. August1981. 56pp.Recent world oil price trends and pricing behavior by the Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries (OPEC) are examined. An outlook for consumption, production andprices in the world oil market, both for the short-term horizon through 1982 and for themid-term period from 1985 through 1995, is presented. A historical review focuses onOPEC activity in the period from January 1980 through May 1981. Several sensitivityanalyses and the impact of supply disruptions are used to determine projections. Theappendix provides data on world crude oil prices for each of twenty-three countries forJanuary, May, and June of 1980 and May of 1981.

0057 The United States Remains Unprepared for Oil Import Disruptions. Volume I.(Summary: Includes Conclusions and Recommendations.)General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. Report tothe Congress. September 29, 1981. 87pp.This report examines the federal government's ability to cope with oil importdisruptions. Itdiscusses the adequacy of the Department of Energy's current contingency programsand organization for dealing with oil shortages and suggests ways to strengthen thenation's energy emergency preparedness.

0144 The United States Remains Unprepared for Oil Import Disruptions. Volume II.(Detailed Review of Current Emergency Programs and Alternative Approaches.)General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. Report tothe Congress. September 29, 1981. 218pp.The objectives of this study are to evaluate present U.S. energy preparedness planningfor oil import disruptions and recommend policy options to improve preparedness.

0362 Energy Industries Abroad.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Assistant Secretary for International Affairs.September 1981. 284pp.This volume examines the relationship between foreign governments and energyindustries in many of the world's most important energy producing and consumingnations. This publication is a revision of a similar study, The Role of Foreign Governmentsin the Energy Industries, published by the Department of Energy in 1977. A revision wasappropriate due to the changing world energy market and evolving relationships betweennational governments and private energy companies. On a country-to-country basis,Energy Industries Abroad traces the history of hydrocarbon exploration and productionand reviews the concessionary and other contractual arrangements entered into byforeign governments and international oil companies. The study describes petroleum

legislation that was enacted, how government institutions gradually assumed moreresponsibility for energy matters, and how the former concessionaires adapted toaccommodate this increased government participation in the energy sector.

0646 Economic Profiles of Major Petroleum Consuming Countries.Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York. A. Hermelee, M. Belter, and T.A.Smith. September 1981. 64pp.This report prepared for the Office of Energy Emergency Management InformationSystems (EEMIS) contains economic profiles for the ten largest petroleum consumingcountries. The economic profiles emphasize petroleum consumption by sector andexamine the importance of petroleum in terms of economic and political values. Tables ofthe economy, petroleum supply, and consumption patterns are included for eachcountry. These data are valuable for estimating the impacts of potential cutoffs of varyingmagnitudes upon specific consuming sectors.

0710 Petro-Canada: The National Oil Company as a Tool of Canadian Energy Policy.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. October15, 1981. 65pp.Canada utilizes its national oil company, Petro-Canada, to address important energyissues which are similar to those facing the United States. This study describes fourprincipal functions which Petro-Canada has been assigned and how it performs them.Information on the Canadian experience may help in evaluating U.S. energy policyapproaches and possible options for attaining U.S. energy goals in the future. The study,however, makes no direct comparisons or assessments of the value of the Canadianversus the U.S. approach to similar energy problems, nor does it address directly themany issues which would have to be examined in considering the establishment of someform of national oil company in the United States.

0775 Demand 80/81: Forecasts of Energy Consumption to the Year 2000. Volume 1:Forecasts and Description of the Forecasting Model. Final Report.Applied Forecasting and Analysis, Inc., Los Altos, California. A.M. Borges and R.T.Crow. Octobers'!. 112pp.National forecasts of end-use consumption of electricity, liquid hydrocarbons, gaseoushydrocarbons, and coal for the years 1980 through 2000 are presented. The forecasts arebased on an econometric model whose equations represent energy consumption of eachform of energy in each end-use sector. Each forecast is conditional upon a commonforecast of long-run economic growth, coupled with a scenario concerning energy pricesand conservation policy. The scenarios are composed of four alternative sets of assump-tions about energy prices and three alternative sets of assumptions on conservationpolicy. Volume 1 presents the main results with those of others and describes theequations of the model. Volume 2 presents detailed results and documents the assum-ptions and the data and computer program used in preparing the forecasts.

0887 Demand 80/81: Forecasts of Energy Consumption to the Year 2000. Volume 2:Appendixes. Final Report.Applied Forecasting and Analysis, Inc., Los Altos, California. A.M. Borges, C.M. Boyce,and R.T. Crow, October 1981. 203pp.The Demand 80/81 forecasts cover each sector of the economy and are conditional uponalternative assumptions concerning national economic growth, energy prices, otherprices, and conservation policy. The forecasts also include forms of energy other thanelectricity to provide a comprehensive energy picture. Although the forecasts proceedthrough time in one-year increments, their primary focus is on the period from 1985through 2000. The forecasts are based on twelve sets of alternative assumptions, orscenarios. A forecast of economic growth and nonenergy variables is used to drive themodel to twelve different conditional forecasts. These represent four sets of priceassumptions and three sets of nonprice conservation assumptions. The price assump-

tions are: high, baseline, low and constant 1976, which—because of the inverserelationship between prices and consumption—represent low consumption, baselineconsumption, high consumption, and extra high consumption, respectively. The non-price conservation assumptions are: no, baseline, and extra. The scenarios that are mostimportant are: (1) low prices—no nonprice conservation, (2) baseline prices—baselinenonprice conservation, (3) high prices—baseline nonprice conservation, and (4) highprices—extra nonprice conservation. These appendices document the detailed fore-casts for the twelve final scenarios in the Demand 80/81 effort. Also, the computation andbackground underlying the nonprice conservation scenarios are documented. Finally,the computer program used for Demand 80/81 is documented.

Reel IV0001 International Energy Indicators, October-November 1981.

Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Officeof Market Analysis. E. Rossi, Jr. 7987.29PPDetailed data are presented for energy indicators in tables and graphs. Specific interna-tional data presented are: world crude oil production, 1974 through July 1981; OPECcrude oil productive capacity; world crude oil and refined product inventory levels, 1975through the first half of 1981; oil consumption in OECD countries, 1975 through the firsthalf of 1981; USSR crude oil production, 1975 through July 1981; and free world and U.S.nuclear electricity generation, 1973 through September 1981 and current capacity. Datapresented for energy indicators in the U.S. are: U.S. domestic oil supply and crude oilproduction, 1977 through March 1981; U.S. gross imports of crude oil and products, 1973through August 1981; landed cost of Saudi crude oil in current and 1974 dollars; U.S. coaltrade, 1975 through July 1981; U.S. natural gas trade, 1975 through August 1981;summary of U.S. merchandise trade, 1977 through the first half of 1981; and theenergy/Gross National Product ratio from 1974 through the first half of 1981.

0030 Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Substantial Progress Made, but Capacity and OilQuality Concerns Remain.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Energy and Minerals Division. Report toCongress. December 31, 7985. 63pp.The report discusses efforts since July 1980 to fillthereserve.lt makes recommendationsto the Secretary of Energy concerning the availability of storage capacity and the qualityof oil stored in the reserve. It also includes matters for consideration by Congress duringthe fiscal year 1983 budget process.

0093 Analysis of Changes Introduced under the Proposed OCS Leasing Schedule.Rogers, Golden and Halpern, Inc., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Dececember 1981.23pp.This paper examines seven questions pertaining to the Proposed Five-Year OuterContinental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Schedule. Litigation has proved to beinherent to the OCS leasing program, and it is most likely that the number of lawsuits willincrease if the proposed leasing schedule is approved. The preparation of area-wideEnvironmental Impact Statements can expedite the leasing process, provided that courtactions do not lengthen their scheduled timeline. While the economic benefits ofexpanded OCS drilling may be great, the lack of good research upon which to baseestimates of environmental cost precludes any reliable cost-benefit analysis. Use ofplanning areas should facilitate OCS oil and gas exploration, but it remains to be seen ifless detailed environmental assessments will result in adequate protection of the marineand coastal environments. The proposed OCS leasing schedule should encouragetechnological development, and most industries that support OCS exploration, develop-ment, and production activities indicate that their development of technology and

inventory of supplies are increasing in anticipation of increased DCS activity. Bonusbidding systems provide the federal government with immediate revenues, provide aconclusive method for awarding leases, and limit bidding to companies who can affordlarge front-end payments. Although untested, nonbonus bidding systems may eventuallygenerate greater revenues, available at the time of production, increase competition, andreduce the possibility of land banking. Current procedures for awarding leased tractsprovide ten-year terms in OCS where exploration is difficult, which includes deep watertracts.

0116 Intraindustry Structure, Integration Strategies, and Petroleum Firm Performance.Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. Harry Gerard Broadman. October 6, 1982.161pp.This study covers patterns of integration of firms and the competitive power which theyconfer. Development of an industrial organization model applicable to various industriesand significant to small business is included. The hypothesis to be tested is that integratedfirms have structural opportunities which nonintegrated firms do not share. Usingeconometric techniques, the fit of this hypothesis to the U.S. petroleum industry will betested.

0277 Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers, 1981.Department of Energy, Washington, D. C. Office of Energy Markets and End Use. June1983. 172pp.The purpose of this publication is to examine year-to-year developments in the opera-tions of twenty-six major U.S. energy companies on a corporate level, and also by majorline of energy business and by major functions within each line-of-business. This reportpresents data collected for calendar year 1981. Although the focus is on developments in1981, importanttrendsoverthe 1974 through 1981 periodarealso featured. Contents areas follows: energy market in 1981; overview of investment and profits; domestic petro-leum developments; foreign petroleum developments; coal, nuclear, and other energy;nonenergy; and appendices.

0449 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1981. Volume 1.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. July 1982. 197pp.This report is comprised of two volumes. Volume I is divided into four sections. The firstsection contains annual summary tables for data published in the Monthly PetroleumStatement. This section contains summary statistics for the year 1981. The secondsection contains data tables which previously appeared in Petroleum Refineries in theUnited States and U.S. territories. Several new tables have been added includingprojected changes in capacity of petroleum refineries, operable shutdown capacity, anda list of permanently shutdown refineries. The third section contains tables previouslyshown in the Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Ethane publication. The fourthsection contains tables which previously appeared in Deliveries of Fuel Oil and Kerosene.Each of the four sections include 1981 highlights and explanatory notes describing datacollection, estimation, data quality, changes to data collected, and interpretation oftables. In 1981, the United States significantly reduced its dependence on petroleumimports by reducing domestic consumption of petroleum. This decline in domesticconsumption occurred principally as a result of lower economic activity in 1981 and theongoing effects of repeated sharp increases in petroleum product prices since 1973.Since domestic production was stable during 1981 and petroleum products stocksdecreased at a moderate rateof only 0.1 million barrels per day, the one million barrels perday (6%) drop in domestic consumption resulted in a one million barrels per day (15%)decrease in net petroleum imports. Imports decreased despite an ample worldwidesupply of crude oil and stable world prices. Both the reduction in consumption and theample worldwide supplies of crude oil put downward pressure on the prices of petroleumproducts.

0646 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1981. Volume 2.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. July 1982. 483pp.This publication (PSA) replaces four Energy Information Administration (EIA) annualpetroleum publications: Petroleum Statement, Annual; Petroleum Refineries in theUnited States and U.S. Territories; Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Ethane; andDeliveries of Fuel Oil and Kerosene. Volume II contains final detailed statistics for eachmonth of 1981, as previously published in the Monthly Petroleum Statement (MPS),along with the explanatory notes describing data collection, estimation, data quality,changes to data collected and interpretation of tables, and a glossary alphabeticallylisting industry terminology and product definitions. January through December 1981data are presented for each table so that a full year of data can be examined with ease.The tables are in the same order and number the same as the corresponding annualsummary tables in Volume I for easy comparison. Volume I contains annual summarytables for data published in the Monthly Petroleum Statement, and the data tables whichpreviously appeared in Petroleum Refineries in the United States and U.S. Territories.Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Ethane, and Deliveries of Fuel Oil and Ker-osene. Along with the data, each of the four sections includes 1981 highlights andexplanatory notes, and a glossary of industry terminology and product definitions.

Reel V0001 U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves. Annual Report,

1981.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. August1982. 112pp.Data on the U.S. reserves of petroleum and natural gas are presented. As of December31,1981, U.S. proved reserves were estimated to be 29,426 million barrels of crude oil,7,068 million barrels of natural gas liquids (including lease condensate), and 201.730billion cubic feet of dry natural gas (excluding gas in underground storage). Natural gasreserves increased 1.4 percent, crude oil reserves decreased 1.3 percent, and naturalgas liquids reserves increased 5.1 percent during 1981, generally reflecting importantincreases in total discoveries, led by new field discoveries. Total liquid hydrocarbonreserves (crude oil plus natural gas liquids) remained virtually constant. Proved reservesof crude oil decreased 379 million barrels during 1981. Total discoveries were up 34percent from 1980. Indicated additional reserves of crude oil declined only 28 millionbarrels during 1981, to 1,594 million barrels. Proved reservesof dry naturalgas increased2,709 billion cubicfeet during 1981. Total discoveries were 17,220 billion cubic feet,2,747billion cubic feet more than in 1980. Proved reserves of natural gas liquids comprised 19.4percent of total liquid hydrocarbon proved reserves in 1981. Natural gas liquids produc-tion represented 20.1 percent of total liquid hydrocarbon production during the reportyear. The volumes of proved changes booked during 1981 continue to appear consonantwith available drilling and completion statistics. Drilling for hydrocarbons increased 29.1percent during 1981 and achieved all-time highs for the numberof holes drilled and for thenumbers of successfulcrude oil and natural gas completions, which were up38.3 percentand 20.2 percent, respectively. Development drilling continued to comprise thepreponderant share of the total annual drilling increase, although a slight shift towardexploratory drilling took place.

0113 International Energy Annual, 1981.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use.September 1982. 110pp.An overview of world primary energy is presented, in BTUs; in quantity production; and inpetroleum supply, disposition and refinery capacity; natural gas supply and disposition;coal supply and disposition; world petroleum prices and energy reserves. Appendices

cover energy sources; geographical regions; volume and weight conversions by energysource; and gross thermal conversions by energy source.

0223 International Energy Indicators.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Market Analysis. E. Rossi, Jr. January1982. 30pp.Data are presented under the following headings: world crude oil production, 1974;OPEC crude oil productive capacity; world crude oil and refined product inventory levels,1975; oil consumption in the OECD countries, 1975; USSR crude oil production andexports, 1975; free world and U.S. nuclear electricity generation, 1973; and currentcapacity; U.S. domestic oil supply, 1977; U.S. gross imports of crude oil and products,1973; landed cost of Saudi crude, current and 1974 dollars; U.S. coal trade, 1975; U.S.natural gas trade; summary of U.S. merchandise trade, 1977; and energy/GNP ratio.

0253 Chronology of Major Oil and Gas Regulations.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. April 27, 1982. 83pp.The purpose of this paper is to show the evolution of major oil and gas regulations. Thechronology summarizes each regulation and provides the effective date of the regulation,its title, and the sectors to which it applies. The chronology spans almost 100 years,starting in 1889 and continuing through April 1981. The regulatory summaries, intendedto capture the major points of the regulations, do not detail all of their intricacies andshould not be interpreted as the law. In most cases the page number of the FederalRegister, where the regulation is described in its full legal detail, is noted. An index isprovided at the end of the chronology to assist those persons interested in specific areasof regulation. The index has been divided into two major sections: oil industry regulationsand gas industry regulations. These sections are further divided into sectors within eachindustry. A section for regulations pertaining to natural gas liquids and one for miscella-neous are found at the end of the index.

0336 Estimation of Resources and Reserves. Final Report.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Energy Lab.Morris A. Adelman et. at. March 1982. 532pp.This report analyzes the economics of resources and reserve estimation. Part One dealswith the economic theory of natural resources and examines how markets deal withexhaustible resources. The succeeding parts examine each resource individually. PartsTwo and Three deal with oil and gas. Part Two treats the measurement of alreadydiscovered deposits. It examines the concept of proven reserves and the behavior ofresources over time. Part Three turns to undiscovered deposits and asks how the size ofundiscovered but suspected deposits are estimated. It casts a critical eye upon the biasesinherent in many of the estimation methodologies. Part Four examines coal resource andreserve estimation. In the United States an attempt has been made to define an eco-nomically meaningful classification of coal reserves and resources. This classification isanalyzed in detail along with the more general issue of coal supply. The focus is onalready discovered deposits since knowledge of where coal lies is great and newdiscoveries play a small role in coal supply. Part Five treats uranium. For uranium, as forcoal, extraction costs are high and reserve estimation must reckon with cost estimation.Part Six synthesizes Parts Two through Five by placing resource and reserve estimates inthe context of a cumulative cost curve.

0868 1982 Annual Energy Outlook: With Projections to 1990 (1982-1990).Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. April1983. 53pp.This report presents an analysis of energy trends and projections for the 1980s, bothinternational and domestic. These forecasts are part of a series of Energy InformationAdministration analyses dating from 1978. The report is characterized by two major

themes. First, the higher energy prices that occurred in the 1970s result in a projection oflower per capita energy use and greater energy efficiency during the 1980s. Althoughsome energy prices may fall over the next few years, end-use prices are not projected toreturn to the levels of the early 1970s. Projected consumption levels reflect continuedadjustment to the higher general level of energy prices. Against this background,however, a second important theme involving the relative prices of oil and natural gasemerges. While there has been a substantial movement from oil to (cheaper) natural gas,the projections suggest a reversal of this trend as natural gas becomes more expensiveand oil prices fall.

0921 Outlook for World Oil Prices.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. A.D.Sandoval and W.C. Kilgore. June 1962. 34pp.This paper considers possible trends in the price of world oil on an annual basis from thepresent through the year 1995 and considers the factors that will influence these trends.The analysis provides two major conclusions. First, world oil prices are expected toremain relatively flat overthe next few years, though temporary imbalances in supply anddemand can cause temporary alterations in this general pattern. Second, major in-creases in the real price for world oil are still projected to occur sometime before 1990 andduring the 1990s, as increased demand resulting from income growth begins to outweighsavings from the conservation and fuel-switching initiatives brought on by the priceincreases of the 1970s. This growth in world demand for oil is projected to reduce excessproduction capacity during the 1980s and, as a result, to allow OPEC and other oilexporters to increase prices at an accelerated rate. Put another way, world demand for oilis projected to run into the capacity constraint of a finite resource, a resource that is usedfaster than it is replenished. Assuming continued world economic growth and relativelyunchanged world oil potential supply, major price increases would be necessary to keepdemand and supply in balance.

0955 World Oil.Stanford University, California. Energy Modeling Forum. J.L. Sweeney. June 1982.129pp.Results obtained through the application of ten prominent world oil or world energymodels to twelve scenarios are reported. These scenarios were designed to bound therange of likely future world oil market outcomes. Conclusions relate to oil market trends,impacts of policies on oil prices, security of oil supplies, impacts of policies on oil securityproblems, use of the oil import premium in policy making, the transition to oil substitutes,and the state of the art of world oil modeling.

Reel VI0001 Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Progress after Seven Years.

Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C. S. Glatt. July 1982. 133pp.The goal of this work is to provide a single source of information on the SPR program,including its legislative and administrative bases and to provide background for ongoinganalyses of stockpiling issues. This report examines the SPR program by focusing onmajor matters of contention. These include its size, appropriate type of fill, choice ofstorage facilities, drawdown and distribution plans, procurement policies, financingoptions, costs, and role of the private sector. It describes the decisions made and actionstaken which bear on these and related issues. The paper includes an extensive list ofsources of information and analysis. This study brings together many of the major issuesto present a comprehensive picture of the program in itsdevelopmentthrough early 1982.The discussion highlights difficulties in implementing a large, complex economic andengineering program. Chapter 1 gives a description of the background of strategic and

critical materials stockpiling in this country, which places the Strategic Petroleum Re-serve in its historical context. Chapter 2 examines the specific course of legislation whichled to the establishment of the SPR and documents its present status. In Chapter 3,issues addressed by the policy makers are presented and the major issues of the size ofthe Reserve, typesof storage facilities, location of the Reserve, type of fill, oil procurementstrategies, drawdown and distribution, financing, industrial and private sector participa-tion, and costs are discussed. The decisions taken and the yet unanswered questions areexamined. Lastly, strategic stockpiling efforts in Japan, France, West Germany, Italy, andthe Netherlands are reviewed to give a measure of comparison with the U.S. SPRprogram.

0134 Energy Projections to the Year 2000: July 1982 Update.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Analytical Services Division. August 1982.133pp.This report is an update of the energy projections and analysis presented in a documententitled Energy Projections to the Year 2000, a technical supplement to the NationalEnergy Policy Plan (NEPP) submitted to Congress in July 1981. The format focuses onself-explanatory tables and figures with a minimum of accompanying text.

0267 Production Decline of U.S. Surveillance Oil Fields.Departmentof Energy, Dallas, Texas. Energy Information Administration. J.H. WoodandM. Carrales, Jr. August 1982. 130pp.This report presents an analysis of the oil production from the larger domestic fields(surveillance fields), post-1973 fields (those which first produced oil after 1973), otherfields (primarily smaller fields and lease condensate from gas fields), and total fields at thenational, state, and district level. The resulting estimates of oil production for 1981,1982,and 1983 are included. Estimates were developed separately for the North Slope,subarctic Alaska, each of the twenty-one states, and for each Texas Railroad Commis-sion district. The individual states and subarctic Alaska estimates were summed to getthe subarctic U.S. estimates. The estimates for the North Slope of Alaska were added tothis sum to get the U.S. total.

0397 Mergers in the Petroleum Industry.Federal Trade Commission, Washington, D. C. Bureau of Competition. September 1982.344pp.The study provides a brief overview of the petroleum industry and discusses the numbersand size and the description of the terms of such mergers in each of the last ten years;factors which influence such mergers, including the role of oil price decontrol; the impacton competition and on the availability and prices of petroleum products to consumers; theeffect of acquisitions in diverting investment capital for the exploration and developmentof energy sources; the extent of concentration in each major sector of the industry, theimpact of such concentration on competition, and the impact of mergers on concentrationlevels; the transaction costs of such mergers; and the extent of any asserted efficiencyjustification for such mergers. Three appendices contain an outline specifying the dataused in preparing the report, background correspondence, and separate statementsconcerning the report from three commissioners.

0741 Outlook for Oil Imports.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. M.D.Lehr and J. Zalkind. September 1982. 21pp.This report provides a detailed documentation concerning projections of oil imports to theUnited States. Two features characterize the oil import projections in all scenarios: net oilimports are projected to reverse the decline of late 1981 and early 1982 and to climb tohigher levels in 1985 than they held in 1981 or 1973 (though well below the peak in 1977);and although varying trends are projected between 1985 and 1995, net oil importsthrough 1995 are never projected to recede below 2.6 million barrels per day, versus 5.1 in

1981. Payments for them are never projected to drop below 2.2 percent of the GrossNational Product (GNP) versus 2.3 percent in 1981. The reversal and climb to higherimport levels are projected because oil imports are the only readily usable fuel available inenough quantity to sustain economic growth during the next few years. The 1985forecasts suggest that net oil imports will grow before price increases later in the decadeand other factors can combine to bring about a gradual and permanent decline in oilimports. Varying trends are forecasted between 1985 and 1995 because of alternativeassumptions about oil prices, economic growth, and domestic supply.

0762 Energy Company Development Patterns in the Post-Embargo Era. An Overview ofFinancial Performance, 1974-1980. Volume 1: Analysis of Trends.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. October1982. 142pp.The Financial Reporting System (FRS) monitors and evaluates economic performancein the energy industry to promote an understanding and a critical review of the motivationsand consequences of corporate investment decisions in the energy area. This reportcontains a financial overview of developments during the 1974 to 1980 period in theoperations of the twenty-six major U.S. energy companies. The overview is conducted atthe corporate level, by major lines of energy business, and by major functions within eachline of business. This is the first EIA publication to make extensive use of the recentlyavailable restrospective data collection based on Form EIA-28 for the 1974 to 1976period.

0904 Interior Should Continue Use of Higher Royalty Rates for Offshore Oil and GasLeases.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community Economic Divi-sion. December 20, 1982. 46pp.The report highlights Interior's experiences in using higher royalty rates for offshoreleases, state government experiences with higher royalties, the practices of a number offoreign governments in establishing offshore oil and gas royalties, and the views ofInterior, industry, and some states on the likely outcomes of increasing OCS royalty rates.

0950 Report to the Congress: Comprehensive Energy-Emergency Response Pro-cedures.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. December 31, 1982. 92pp.Section I describes the Administration's strategy for petroleum disruptions. Section IIdescribes the federal government's emergency management procedures. Section IIIdescribes the response measures that the government would consider using duringpetroleum supply disruptions. Finally, Section IV identifies several areas currently understudy within the administration to determine whether additional or amended statutoryauthority is appropriate or necessary to adequately prepare for and respond to apetroleum supply disruption. An Appendix describes in more detail some of the potentialresponse measures and other initiatives related to emergency preparedness activitiesand authorities.

Reel VII0001 Evaluation of Policy Options for Increasing Domestic Oil Inventories. Final Report.

Charles River Associates, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts. December 1982. 148pp.Five criteria are identified for choosing among alternative policy options: Resource costs.What is the opportunity cost of the resources absorbed under alternative policy options;Predictability. How confident can policy makers be that alternative policy options willactually produce the intended result; Control. In this report the term control is used tomean the authority to draw down stragetic stocks of petroleum. Who is best able to make

decisions regarding stockpile draw-down; Who pays. Who bears the costs of stockpilingpetroleum; and federal budget impact. What implications do alternative policy optionshave for federal budget outlays. Discussions center around private versus public in-centives to stockpile.

0149 Macroeconomic Consequences of Oil Price and Tax Policies. Final Report.Jorgenson (Dale W.) Associates, Cambridge, Massachusetts. R.J. Goettle IV and E.A.Hudson. December 30, 1982. 276pp.This analysis examines the macroeconomic consequences of selected federal energypolicies affecting petroleum prices and the disposition of oil market revenues. Specifical-ly, it compares overall economic performance under current oil policy conditions, whichinclude full price decontrol in 1981 and the imposition of a windfall profits tax on domesticproduction, to that arising under alternative policy situations. These cover the continua-tion of oil price controls, elimination of the windfall profits tax (under various governmentfinancing schemes), and substitution of a reformed windfall profits tax beginning in 1983.Also, each policy is analyzed under two sets of conditions defining future world oil prices.

0365 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1982. Volume I.Department of Energy, Washington. D.C. Energy Information Administration. June1983. 753pp.The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and dispositionof crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflectsdatathat were collected fromthe petroleum industry during 1982 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA isdivided into two volumes. The first volume contains the following four sections, each withfinal annual data: petroleum supply summary; refinery capacity; sales of liquefiedpetroleum gases; deliveries of fuel oil and kerosene.

0516 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1982. Volume 2.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. June1983. 440pp.This volume contains data on the supply and disposition of petroleum and petroleumproducts in the United States during 1982. Monthly statistics are presented by PADDistrict. Monthly data are also presented on: production of crude oil and lease con-densate; natural gas processing; refinery operation by PAD District; imports and exportsof crude oil and petroleum products between PAD Districts; and heavy fuel oils by sulfurcontent.

Reel VIII0001 U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves. 1982 Annual

Report.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Off ice of Oil and Gas. September 1983.89pp.Findings are presented for the total United States, as well as state and selectedgeographic areas, on proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids asof December 31, 1982. Production volumes are also provided for each of these threecategories. Data are also presented on notable exploration and developmental activitiesduring 1982 and on the reported commitment status of domestic proved reserves andnonproducing reserves of natural gas. These findings are based upon data obtained fromtwo annual EIA surveys: Annual Survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves; and AnnualReport of the Origin of Natural Gas Liquids Petroleum.

0090 International Energy Annual, 1982.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use.September 1983. 102pp.During 1982, the world's largest energy producers were, in order, the United States, theUSSR. China, and Saudi Arabia. As a group, these four countries accounted for 56

percent of the world's production. While many of the major energy producers experi-enced declines in production in 1982 as compared to 1981, the USSR reported a 3percent gain resulting from increased production of natural gas. Other countries withsmaller levels of energy production but notable increases during the 1973 through 1982period were Mexico, Norway, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Australia. Countriesexperiencing sizable declines in energy production over the 1973 through 1982 periodincluded Iran, Kuwait, and Venezuela. Measured by type of primary energy production,crude oil and natural gas liquids accounted for 42 percent of the world's primary energyproduction in 1982, coal for 29 percent, natural gas for 19 percent, hydroelectric power for7 percent and nuclear power for 3 percent.

0192 Mineral Revenues: The 1982 Report on Receipts from Federal and Indian Leaseswith Summary Data from 1920 to 1982.Minerals Management Service, Washington, D.C. Royalty Management Program.1983. 73pp.In 1982, bonuses, rents, and royalties from federal and Indian leases together totaled$9.3 billion. These revenues were distributed to the states, to the general fund of theTreasury, to certain earmarked accounts, and to Indian tribes and allottees. This annualreport contains updated tabulations of royalty collections from mineral leases on federaloffshore and onshore lands and on Indian lands. Oil royalties taken in kind are alsodetailed.

0265 Impacts of Oil Disturbances: Lessons from Experience.Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee. T.R. Curlee. January 1983. 69pp.An analysisof the impacts of previous oil disturbances can be used to suggest the impactsof future oil disturbances. This paper reviews how the 1973-1974 Oil Crisis, the1978-1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq War impacted the U.S. andworld oil markets. Various measures of impacts are considered, such as impacts onphysical flows of crude and products, crude and product price changes on the U.S. andworld markets, impacts on stocks of crude and products, and impacts on refiners' inputsandoutputs. Various macroeconomic indicators, such as gross national product, inflationrates, and unemployment, are also considered. Of particular interest in this study are theimpacts that oil disturbances have had (and could have) on the availabilities of particularcrude types and the abilities of U.S. refiners to process crudes of various types in the shortrun. In addition, this paper reviews how the actions of the consuming countries and themajor oil companies affected the impacts of past disturbances. The paper brieflydiscusses the likely causes and impacts of future oil disturbances and summarizes thelessons to be learned from past reactions to oil disturbances.

0334 Energy Demand in Non-OECD Countries: Oil Demand.Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York. J. Lee, V. Mubayi, and G. Ananda-lingam. January 1983. 57pp.A simple model based on income and price elasticities was constructed to projectdemand for oil in the non-OECD countries (OPEC and non-OPEC) using a function of thegrowth rates of per capita GNP and the world price of oil. Income and price elasticitieswere estimated using three different models, A, B, and C, one of which assumed laggedadjustments to price changes and two of which did not. Model A used GNP estimated inU.S. constant dollars and the world price of oil. The income elasticities were very high andmost of the price elasticities were insignificantly different from zero at the 90 percentconfidence level. This led us to the conclusion that the world price of oil does notadequately represent the oil price faced by domestic consumers in most developingcountries and is not a useful parameter in most non-OECD countries for estimating priceelasticities. Model B and Model C (with lagged adjustment) used GNP and oil pricesestimated in domestic currencies. Both of these models give more reasonable incomeand price elasticities. The more reliable of these estimates were used for projecting oildemand.

0391 Analysis of Natural Gas Pricing Policy Alternatives. Volume 1 (Analysis and Con-clusions).General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community Economic Divi-sion. February 3, 1983. 48pp.Several alternatives have been proposed to the Natural Gas Policy Act, which es-tablished a schedule for decontrol of natural gas prices. GAO examined four proposals tosee how they compared in their effects on gas prices and supplies. This reportsummarizes the results of GAO's analysis and discusses the advantages and disadvan-tagesof the two more attractive options—continuing the provisionsof the present law andtotal decontrol of natural gas wellhead prices in 1983.

0439 Estimating the Short-Term Producibility of Oil and Gas. Final Report.National Research Council, Washington, D.C. March 1983. 129pp.The report presents a methodology for EIA to use in collecting estimates of the emer-gency productive capacity of oil and gas in the United States. The technical reportaddresses the following topics: the concepts of productive capacity used by others in thepast, their attributes and facilities, and the development of recommended concepts likelyto provide the most useful data to El A; the data needed todevelop estimates of productivecapacity and the availability, accuracy, and propriety of such data; data-gathering-and-analysis methods appropriate to ElA's need to obtain, analyze, and verify information onproductive capacity; and the major constraints to and opportunities for increaseddomestic oil and gas production. Two basic methods were suggested: one survey plan toestimate the short-term producibility of oil; and one method, using data already beingcollected, for estimating the short-term producibility of natural gas. Nonreservoir factorsin realizing surge capability were also discussed, and recommendations were made formaintaining information in these areas.

0568 Opportunity to Increase Oil and Gas Exploration and Lease Rental Income.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community Economic Divi-sion. April 28, 1983. 12pp.As general policy, the federal government does not issue oil and gas leases on lands thathave been or may be designated as wilderness. Therefore, the Bureau of Land Man-agement and the Forest Service generally do not process lease applications that includeboth nonwilderness lands and wilderness or potential wilderness lands. GAO found thatover 1 million acres of the lands in the lease applications in seven western states involvednonwilderness lands. GAO believes the Bureau of Land Management and the ForestService should implement joint procedures to segregate the nonwilderness portions ofover-the-counter lease applications and lease them to willing applicants where practi-cable. For the seven states alone, this could increase the amount of federal landsavailable for oil and gas exploration and provide about $1 million in annual rental income.

0580 Inventory Optimization in the U.S. Petroleum Industry: Empirical Analysis andImplications for Energy Emergency Policy.Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachu-setts. R.G. Hubbard and R. Weiner. August 1983. 36pp.This paper starts from the observation that the rapid increases in the price of crude oilduring two of the last three supply disruptions can be attributed in part to increased privateinventory demand stimulated by expectations of still higher prices (and hence specula-tive profits) in the future. To examine this phenomenon, we develop an optimizing modelof inventory behavior in the petroleum industry and test it on United States data.Government intervention in any future disruption is likely to take the form of releases fromthe Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Given that the SPR accounts for but a smallfraction of U.S. oil inventories, the reaction of the private sector is critical in evaluating itsimpact. We incorporate inventory behavior in a small, empirically-estimated model of theworld oil market, which is then linked to a short-run macro-econometric model of the U.S.

We employ the linked energy-economy models to simulate a disruption and the effects ofusing the SPR on oil prices and private inventory behavior. Our simulations support theview that substantial inventory accumulation accompanies a supply disruption. In thedebate over whether the SPR is potentially a potent or impotent resource in an emer-gency, we lean toward potency. We found that public releases were not absorbed inprivate stockpiles; indeed, their dampening price effects served, albeit slightly, todiscourage speculative stock build.

0616 Oil Supply Disruptions: Their Price and Economic Effects.General Accounting Office, Washington, D. C. Resources Community Economic Divi-sion. May 20, 1983. 61pp.Large disruptions of 10 and 19 millions of barrels of oil per day could double or triple oilprices and have serious effects on inflation, economic growth, and employment—evenunder conditions of substantial unused production capacity such as those present duringthe past year. However, under these slack market conditions, GAO's analysis shows thata small disruption of 3 million barrels per day would have little effect. Under tighter marketconditions like those before the Iranian oil cutoff of 1979, there is less unused productioncapacity to make up for lost production, and disruptions result in larger price increases.

0677 Oil and Its Influence on Strategic Planning.Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. Terry Clifton Pierce. June 1983.189pp.This paper analyzes the continuing threat of a serious oil supply disruption and readinessof the U. S. to cope with such a development. Chapter One examines current perceptionsof the likelihood of another oil crisis. It argues that these perceptions are critically flawedby an inadequate conceptual understanding of the nature of vulnerability. Chapter Twotraces the U.S. response to the 1973-1974 and 1978-1979 oil crises and surveys theprospects for a future oil crisis. Chapter Three evaluates the present oil glut in relation toU.S. long-term programs to reduce oil vulnerability. It examines the effect that a newcomplacent attitude arising from the appearance of surplus may have on efforts topromote policies to avert a future crisis. Chapter Four examines the different con-tingencies that the U.S. could possibly face as a result of oil dependence. Chapter Fiveexamines U.S. national goals and the linkage between goals and policy. Chapter Sixproposes a strategy of attainment to reduce U.S. vulnerability to future oil disruptions.Such a strategy would address both the short- and long-term problems that faceAmerican strategic planners concerned with the oil issue.

Reel IX0001 Domestic Impact of Reliance on Market Forces during a Substantial Petroleum

Supply Disruption. Volume 1. Report and Appendices.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of the Secretary. August 3, 1983.293pp.The impact on the domestic economy of reliance on market allocation and pricing duringany substantial reduction in the amount of petroleum products available to the UnitedStates is analyzed. The equity and efficiency of reliance on the market is examined.Impacts of such reliance on various categories of business, especially small businessand agriculture, and on households of different income levels are identified. Themonetary and fiscal policies to be followed are specified. Likely impacts of state and localauthorities affecting petroleum use are forecast. Effects of petroleum supply disruptionson petroleum product prices and on federal, state, and local revenues are projected.Procedures by which monetary and fiscal policies would be implemented are detailed.The report concludes that the federal government is prepared to respond appropriately toany exigency.

0294 Domestic Impact of Reliance on Market Forces during a Substantial PetroleumSupply Disruption. Volume 2. Attachments.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of the Secretary. August 3, 1983.412pp.Administrative procedural manuals for standby emergency actions during a petroleumsupply disruption detail temporary tax reductions and temporary block grants during theemergency duration.

0706 World Oil Price Behavior during Oil Supply Disruptions: What Can We Learn fromthe Past.Harvard University. Cambridge, Massachusetts. Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter. T.H. Birdsall. August 1980. 26pp.The purpose of this paper is to: examine how world oil prices have behaved during past oilsupply disruptions, attempt to understand why world oil prices have behaved duringdisruptions as they have, and see what history foretells, if anything, for the behavior ofworld oil prices during future oil supply disruptions.

0732 Determinants of Oil Exploration and Development in Non-OPEC DevelopingCountries. Final Report.Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C. H.G. Broadman. September 30,1983.123pp.Most analysts agree that expansion of oil exploration and development activity innon-OPEC developing countries (NODCs) would be socially beneficial not only for thosenations but also for industrialized countries since it would help diversify world oil suppliesaway from the unstable Middle East. However, there is uncertainty about the opportunityfor productive public sector intervention. Sensible public policy must derive from anunderstanding of what elements might contribute to insufficient investment in suchactivity by the private market. To that end, this paper develops an analytical framework ofthe determinants of oil exploration and development investment in NODCs. The centralpolicy question the framework addresses is to ascertain the extent to which potentialconstraints on NODC exploration and development activity relate to poor geologicprospects, on the one hand, and to economic, institutional, and political elements, on theother. Specifically, the framework is comprised of two sets of hypotheses designed toanswer the following questions: what factors account for the observed pattern ofexploration and development investment across non-OPEC developing countries, andwhat determines why some international petroleum firms are more likely than others toengage in NODC exploration and development activity. The two sets of hypotheses formtwo multivariate models: a cross-country model of petroleum exploration and develop-ment and a model of firm determinants of foreign investment in exploration and develop-ment activity.

0855 Effects of Lower World Oil Prices.Department of Energy, Washington, D. C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. P. F.Dickens III et at. October 1983. 30pp.This report explores some of the effects of oil price declines using projections prepared forthe recent 1982 Annual Energy Outlook. The focus is on the projections employing thelowest of three projected world oil price paths. The topics addressed are: the general levelof energy use; changes in the relative use of energy forms; effects on the domestic oilproduction and producers; and effects on the general economy and the federal budget.

0885 Energy Projections to the Year 2010: A Technical Report in Support of the NationalEnergy Policy Plan.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis.October 1983. 185pp.Underlying these energy projections are assumptions and results about key variables—world oil prices, economic growth, energy consumption, and production potential—

which are described in the document. The projections are based on information availablethrough June 1983. Projecting U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through the year2010 is by nature a highly uncertain process. These projections try to account foruncertainty by providing a variety of scenarios that account for alternative future con-ditions. Results indicate that although the outlook for future world oil prices is highlyuncertain, most analysts now agree that, barring a significant oil supply disruption, worldoil prices will most likely fall in real terms until the mid 1980s. From 1985 through 1990,prices will most likely increase in real terms. Beyond 1990, the outlook becomesincreasingly uncertain. The oil price increases of 1973-1974 and 1979-1980 have setinto motion powerful energy conservation forces that are likely to continue causingenergy (especially oil) to be used more efficiently. Consequently, we need to paycontinuing attention to analyzing and evaluating energy conservation trends in worldeconomies. The recent decline in world oil prices has added a new dimension to theuncertainty about future market conditions. Prior to 1983, OPEC had never officiallyreduced the posted price of oil, but rather used the influence of inflation to allow prices tofall gradually in real terms during periods of excess world supply. Now, investmentplanners must not only be concerned about the potential for oil price shocks, which cansend the oil price very high, but also about future price breaks which could send the pricevery low. Under all but extreme assumptions, both the U.S. and the rest of the world willremain dependent on liquid fuels, including oil supplies from OPEC, throughout at leastthe next twenty years.

ReelX0001 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use.November 1983. 46pp.Domestic petroleum consumption in 1984 is expected to average 15.9 million barrels perday, a 4.7-percent increase over expected 1983 demand of 15.2 million barrels per day.Petroleum demand in 1984 is expected to show an increase, on an annual basis, for thefirst time since 1978. Projected demand in 1984 is down slightly, despite a somewhathigher forecast for industrial production. This downward revision primarily reflects weak-er petroleum demand in the industrial sector than forecasted previously, but it alsoreflects a slightly lower real disposal personal income and a slightly higher world oil price.Data for the second and third quarters of 1983 show a stronger and faster economicrecovery than previously forecast; as a result, manufacturing activity is now projected torise by 8 percent between 1982 and 1983 and by an additional 10 percent between 1983and 1984. Although the assumed world oil price of $29.40 per barrel in 1984 is slightlyhigherthan forecast previously, oil prices are still expected to remain stable at the level (innominal terms) throughout the forecast period.

0047 Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing and Production Program. AnnualReport, Fiscal Year 1983.Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. March 30, 1984. 65pp.The Annual Report on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing andProduction Program for Fiscal Year (FY) 1983 is submitted to the Congress pursuant tosection 15 (1) of the OCS Lands Act, as amended. This report describes the OCS leasingand production activities during FY 1983, including a summary of receipts and expendi-tures, and, in compliance with section 22 (g) of the Act, also includes information on OCSsafety violationssubmitted by the U.S. Coast Guard. Oil and gas production from the OCSconstitutes an important part of the nation'sdomestic energy supply. To provide access topossible new sources of oil and gas offshore, the Department of Interior (DOI), throughthe Minerals Management Service (MMS), conducted eight OCS lease sales during FY1983, one of which was divided into two parts. Tracts in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) were

offered in three of the sales, including the sale that was held in two parts because ofspecial circumstances involving preparation of the prelease documents. Of the fiveremaining sales, three were offshore Alaska, and two were in the Mid Atlantic and SouthAtlantic. The eight sales resulted in the leasing of 1,420 tracts covering 7,493,781offshore acres. Atotal of $8,397,804,592 was received in bonus money. First year rentalsfrom the eight sales totaled $22,901,682. On the basis of MMS figures, oil and gasproduced on the DCS in FY1983 amounted to more than 342 million barrels of crude oiland condensate and more than 4.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Federal offshore oilproduction amounted to 10.8 percent of total U.S. production during FY 1983, whileoffshore gas amounted to 24.4 percent of total U.S. production. All of the offshoreproduction occurred in the GOM and off southern California. A total of 383 exploratorywells and 588 development wells were drilled on existing leases during FY 1983.

0112 Basic Oil Industry Information.Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna (Austria). 7983. 42pp.The major concepts of the mineral oil industry are presented and defined with the aid ofmany figures.

0154 Profiles of Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. Energy, 1983.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Energy Markets and End Use.February 1985. 47pp.This report presents profiles of: foreign direct investment in U.S. petroleum (includingnatural gas production); foreign-affiliated companies' energy production, processing,distribution, and reserves; and foreign-affiliated energy companies' financial perform-ance and investment activity in 1983. Additionally, profiles of U.S. companies' energyoperations abroad and comparisons of foreign-affiliated companies to U.S. energycompanies are presented. The information is intended for use by the Congress, govern-ment agencies, industry analysts, international trade and finance analysts, and thepublic.

0201 Petroleum Resources of the North Sea.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. W.D. Dietzman, N.R.Rafidi, and T.A. Ross. 1983. 107pp.This report presents an analysis of the potential future oil supply capability from the NorthSea. Presented herein are estimates of original oil in place; ultimate recovery; remainingrecoverable oil; and projected supply patterns over time. This study indicates that theestimated remaining recoverable oil in the area from known deposits is about 25.6 billionbarrels as of January 1,1982, and the total undiscovered recoverable oil has an estimatedstatistical mean value of 19.9 billion barrels with 12.7 billion barrels of that amountoccurring below the sixty-second parallel. Substantial additional producing capacitymight be developed, about 2.0 million barrels of oil per day and perhaps higher, especiallyfrom the United Kingdom and Norwegian sectors of the northern North Sea basins.Output from the area in 1981 was about 4.3 percent of the world total. As of January 1,1982, there were at least 242 developed and undeveloped oil fields in the North Sea thatoriginally contained about 96 billion barrels of oil in place and had an estimated provedreserve of 19.8 billion barrels and an undeveloped reserve of 5.7 billion barrels of oilremaining to be recovered. Cumulative production to January 1, 1982, was 3.6 billionbarrels, giving a total estimated ultimate oil recovery of 29.1 billion barrels and a recoveryefficiency of 30.5 percent of the original oil in place.

0308 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1983. Volume 1.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. June1984. 148pp.The Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) contains information on the supply and dispositionof crude oil and petroleum products. The publication reflectsdata that were collected fromthe petroleum industry during 1983 through annual and monthly surveys. The PSA is

divided into two volumes. This first volume contains the following three sections:petroleum supply summary; refinery capacity; and deliveries of fuel oil and kerosene.Each section contains the final annual data. The second volume contains final statisticsfor each month of 1983, and replaces data previously published in the Petroleum SupplyMonthly (PSM). The tables in Volumes I and II are similarly numbered to facilitatecomparison between them.

0456 Petroleum Supply Annual, 1983. Volume 2.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Energy Information Administration. June1984. 417pp.An annual compilation by the Energy Information Administration of the monthly petro-leum supply, petroleum imports and exports, average stock levels, and other informationas provided by the petroleum industry.

0873 U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves. 1983 AnnualReport.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. October 1984. 97pp.This report presents findings for the total U.S., as well as state and selected geographicareas, on proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as ofDecember 31, 1983. Production volumes are also provided for each of these threeenergy sources. Data are also presented on notable exploration and developmentalactivities during 1983, crude oil proved reserves in nonproducing reservoirs, and on thereported commitment status of natural gas proved reserves, in both producing andnonproducing reservoirs. Aglossary of the terms used in this report and in survey forms isprovided to assist readers in more fully understanding the data presented in thispublication. This report also contains a section which lists related EIA publications.

Reel XI0001 Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers, 1983. Volume 1, Analysis of

Trends.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Energy Markets and End Use.February 1985. 235pp.The purpose of this publication is to examine year-to-year developments in the opera-tions of the twenty-five major U.S. energy-producing companies on a corporate level bymajor line of energy business, and by major functions within each line of business. Thisreport presents data collected on Form EIA-28 for calendar year 1983. Although the focusis on developments in 1983, important trends over the 1974 through 1983 period are alsofeatured. Economic performance, in financial and physical dimensions, continues toserve as a significant factor in evaluating past decisions and guiding future options in thedevelopment and supply of energy resources. The information contained in this report isintended to promote an understanding and a critical review of the possible motivationsand apparent consequences of investment decisions by some of the largest corporationsin the energy industry. The information is intended for use by the Congress, governmentagencies, industry analysts, and the public. The report is in two volumes. This volumeprovides an analysis of financial and operating trends for the twenty-five companies andoverall industry. The second volume provides aggregate data from Form EIA-28, intabular form, for the twenty-five companies for the years 1977 through 1983.

0236 Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers, 1983. Volume 2, StatisticalTables.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Energy Markets and End Use.February 1985. 82pp.The purpose of this publication is to examine year-to-year developments in the opera-tions of the twenty-five major U.S. energy-producing companies on a corporate level, by

major line of energy business, and by major functions within each line of business. Thisreport presents data collected on Form EIA-28 for calendar year 1983. Although the focusis on developments in 1983, important trends over the 1974 through 1983 period are alsofeatured. The report is in two volumes. This volume provides aggregate data from FormEl A-28, in tabular form, for the twenty-five companies for the years 1977 through 1983.The first volume provides an analysis of financial and operating trends for the twenty-fivecompanies and the overall industry.

0318 International Energy Prices, 1978-1982.Department of Energy, Washington, D. C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. January1984. 156pp.This international energy price report presents 1978 through 1982 quarterly energy priceand tax information for the United States and several major energy-consuming countries.The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document containing recentinternational energy price and tax trends. Major types of energy consumption arepresented for ten countries and four economic sectors within each of the countries. Thedata displayed are designed to meet the needs of those analysts requiring easy-to-readinternational price trend information expressed in U.S. currency and units of measure andin various other national currencies and metric units of measure.

0474 Oil Supply Disruptions and the Role of the International Energy Agency.Resources for the Future, Inc.. Washington. D.C. D.R. BohiandM.A. Toman. May 1984.37pp.The mutual gains from international cooperation in responding to an oil supply disruptionare substantial, and the IEA has an important part to play in reaping these gains. However,both the thrust of the current IEA agreement and ambiguities concerning key provisionslimit its capacity to attain successful cooperation. To better achieve this goal, the primaryfocus of the agreement should be shifted from targeted embargoes and burden-sharingto coordinated, market-oriented responses involving import demand restraint and stock-piling. The paper also emphasizes the role of the IEA in promoting an environmentconducive to cooperation through harmonizing members' interests and expectations.

0511 Risk Aversion and the Insurance Value of Strategic Oil Stockpiling.Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington. D.C.M.A. Toman and M.K. Macauley. May1984. 30pp.In this paper we estimate the value of strategic oil stockpiling in reducing the welfare costof the U.S. economy of income risks induced by fluctuating oil prices. The estimates,derived by combining quarterly data with a Taylor series approximation of the stockpilepremium, range from $.30/bbl to $3.00/bbl depending on the assumptions made aboutrisk preferences and other influences. However, the lower range of the estimates—under$1.00/bbl—probably is closer to the true value. Thus, the estimates suggest little need foradjusting benefit-cost analyses of optimal government stockpiling to reflect attitudestoward risk.

0541 Replacement Cost of Domestic Crude Oil.Lewin and Associates, Inc., Washington, D.C. V.A. Kuuskraa, F. Morra, and H.W.Hochheiser. May 1984. 43pp.The United States has a rich base of petroleum resources, but replacing domestic oilreserves will be costly and will require advances in technology. In the mature onshore andoffshore regions, the bulk of the future oil will be found in small fields. The promise of largediscoveries lies in the costly and challenging deep offshore waters and the hostile Arctic.With significant investment in R & D, advanced tertiary recovery methods could alsomake a major contribution to lower-cost domestic supplies. The study of the replacementcosts of domestic crude oil shows that adequate supplies of lower cost oil could beavailable through the middle of the 1990s. However, as these lower-cost sources aredepleted, replacement costs will begin to escalate rapidly, reaching very high levels afterthe turn of the century. Geology, policy choices, and investment decisions can significant-

ly alter the future shape of the replacement cost curve. Lower than expected exploratorysuccess in the Arctic and the deep offshore waters, or constraints on lease sales woulddramatically increase reserves replacement cost. On the other hand, increased accessto resources and advances in oil exploration and recovery technology would sharplylower the replacement cost curve and provide substantial benefits to the industry and theU.S. economy.

0584 Energy Security and End Use: Efficiency and Fuel Switching.Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee. W. Fu/kerson and R.S. Car/smith. 1984.61pp.In terms of vulnerability to an oil supply disruption or the probability-of another suddenlarge increase in the price of oil, the United States is much more secure today than it hasbeen in a decade. Two causes are the large improvement in the apparent efficiency ofenergy use (less energy use per unity of activity) and the switching from oil to other fuels.Most of the oil savings due to efficiency improvements were in the industrial and trans-portation sectors. Despite these remarkable changes much more is possible. Presently,we are far from the economically justifiable limits of fuel use efficiency. Similarly,additional oil savings can occur if the trend away from oil by electric utilities and inbuildings continues. There appears to be a significant short-term fuel switching capabilityespecially in the industrial and building sectors, but the amount is uncertain. Much of whathas been accomplished to date has been the result of changes which did not require largecapital investments. Future progress will be increasingly more expensive as theseinvestments are made. Research to find additional technological options for efficiencyimprovementshasa very large potential economic benefittothe U.S. economy. Given theconsiderable potential for continued improvements in economically attractive efficiencyimprovements and fuel switching, the United States and other developed countriesshould be able to manage the demand side of the international oil market to minimize thechance of future oil shortages or large price fluctuations. The strategy for doing this is tocomplement market forces with appropriate government policies so that the marginbetween effective world oil production capacity and oil demand is kept at a stable, safelevel.

0645 Status of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Activities as of June 30, 1984.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community and EconomicDevelopment Division. July 13, 1984. 32pp.The Department of Energy reported that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve containedabout 413.7 million barrels of oil on June 30,1984. During the third quarter of fiscal year1984, about 21.9 million barrels of oil were added for a fill rate of about 241,000 barrels perday. This report discusses the progress being made in filling, developing, and operatingthe Reserve. It also discusses other events and activities affecting the Reserve thatoccurred during the third quarter of fiscal year 1984.

0677 Plans to Award Additional Financial Assistance to the Union Oil Company OilShale Program.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community and EconomicDevelopment Division. July 23, 1984. 35pp.The U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corporation plans to provide up to $2.7 billion in assistance toUnion Oil Company of California for phase II of its oil shale program. Union's phase Iproject had been guaranteed up to $400 million in assistance in July 1981. This reportprovides answers to a number of specific programmatic, financial, and technical ques-tions concerning both the phase I and phase II projects.

0712 International Energy Prices, 1979-1983.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office Energy Markets and End Use. August1984. 157pp.Quarterly energy price and tax information for the United States and several majorenergy-consuming countries is reported as a reference document. Major types of energy

consumption are presented for ten countries and four economic sectors within each of thecountries. The data are expressed in U.S. currency and units of measure and in variousother national currencies and metric units of measure. The report provides comparativeenergy price and tax data fordifferent national petroleum product pricing systems. Japan,France, Italy, and Sweden have government-controlled petroleum product price ceilings.These countries' governments exercise considerable au'i.ority over the timing andmagnitude of petroleum price changes. The Netherlands and Australia have a formula forautomatic changes in petroleum product price ceilings, usually in response to changes inoil acquisition costs. In the first quarter of 1978 the United States and Canada had partialprice controls (primarily forcrude oil). The United States discontinued price controls on allpetroleum in January 1981 and Canada abolished national controls over petroleumproduct prices in December 1978. West Germany and the United Kingdom have had nolegal restrictions on petroleum product prices.

0869 U.S. Vulnerability to an Oil Import Curtailment: the Oil Replacement Capability.Office ol Technology Assessment, Washington, D.C. September 1984. 162pp.An analysis of the U.S. oil replacement capability in the event of an oil supply shortfall ofindefinite duration. The report analyzes energy supply and demand technologies whichcan replace large amounts of oil within five years after the onset of a major oil supplyshortfall, occurring within the next few years and accompanied by a large and enduringincrease in oil prices. Emphasis is placed on those technologies that are commerciallyavailable now or are likely to be commercial by 1985, and within this group, attention isgiven to the least cost alternatives to oil. In addition, the report analyzes the macroeco-nomic effects of an oil shortfall and how these effects could be influenced by differentrates of investment in the oil replacement technologies.

Reel XII0001 Linking U.S. Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates.

RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California. R. Nehring. September 1984. 193pp.During the past decade, two reports on United States oil and gas reserves have beenpublished: the combined annual reports of the Committee on Reserves of the AmericanPetroleum Institute (API) and the Committee on Natural Gas Reserves of the AmericanGas Association (AGA) for the years up to and including 1979, and the annual reports ofthe Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy for the yearsbeginning in 1977. These two series do not agree on either the total reserve estimates orthe annual changes in reserves. The purpose of this note is to provide an informed,plausible series of proved reserves and annual reserve changes by type for crude oil andnatural gas (dry) that links these two different series of reserve estimates over the late1970s. Section I describes the basic differences between the two published series ofreserve estimates, explores the possible reasons why differences between the twoseries occurred, and describes the approach we followed in creating a linked series.Section II presents the published and linked estimate of crude oil reserves, reservechanges by type, and production for the forty-three individual states and statisticalsubdivisions for which crude oil reserve data have been published. Section III presentsthe published and linked estimates of natural gas reserves, reserve changes by type, andproduction for the forty-one individual states and subdivisions for which natural gasreserve data have been published. Section IV provides aggregate estimates of crude oiland natural gas reserves for the United States as a whole.

0194 Impact of Surveillance Fields on Crude Oil Production in the United States.Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Office of Oil and Gas. J.H. Wood, V.T. Funk,and J.S. Sanders. November 1984. 133pp.This report presents an analysis of crude oil production trends in the U.S. and focuses onthe declining production from old, large fields (surveillance fields). Oil fields in the Alaska

North Slope and the federal offshore areas have furnished the substantial increases incrude oil production necessary to maintain a near constant rate of production for the U .S.during the past few years. Total U.S. production has varied less than 1 percent (plus orminus) since the end of 1979. Excluding the Alaska North Slope and federal offshoreareas, the remaining U.S. oil production has continued to decline despite accelerateddrilling during the years of 1980 through 1982. The North Slope fields currently producingare the Prudhoe Bay and the Kuparuk River. Production from the Prudhoe Bay field isexpected to maintain the current rate of about 555 million barrels of oil per year for the nextfew years. The Kuparuk River field began producing in 1981 and produced about 32million barrels of oil in 1982. Oil production from federal offshore fields grew by 5 millionbarrels in 1982. Data for the federal offshore fields indicate another 35 million barrelincrease in 1983, reaching an annual production of 350 million barrels. Some 1.606 oldsurveillance fields accounted for almost 75 percent of the total U.S. oil production in 1982.Without production from Prudhoe Bay, the remaining 1,605 old surveillance fieldsexperienced an annual composite production-decline rate of 6.8 percent for 1977through 1979, and 4.1 percent for 1980 through 1982. Approximately 11 percent of theU.S. oil production for 1982 came from 6,315 new fields that began producing after 1973.Other fields account for the remainder of the production. This category includes oil fieldsthat did not qualify as surveillance fields, lease condensate extracted from the gasproduced from oil and/or gas fields, and new fields where production is not availableat the field level.

0327 Costs and Indexes for Domestic Oil and Gas Field Equipment and ProductionOperations, 1984.Department of Energy, Dallas, Texas. Energy Information Administration. V.T. FunkandT.C. Anderson. May 1985. 161pp.Estimated costs and cost indexes fordomesticoil and gas field equipment and productionoperations are provided for 1984. The information is given for several depth categories insix gas producing regions and seven oil-producing regions, both offshore and onshore, ofthe United States. Costs are also shown for 1983 and cost indexes (1976 - 100) es-tablished for 1982 and 1983. Narrative sections discuss the results and the indexingprocedure, and review the 1984 indexing.

0488 Changing Structure of the World Refining Industry: Implications for the UnitedStates and Other Major Consuming Regions.Resource Systems Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii. February 1985. 217pp.There are five chapters in this publication. Chapter I on refining industry in transitioncovers refining history highlights and OPEC's downstream operations. Chapter II ondemand for oil and oil products discusses supply and demand for OPEC oil, demand foroil products, historical growth trends, future growth trends and the case of EastAsia—emergence of a fuel oil glut. Chapter III on the U.S. and other traditional refiningcenters begins with an introduction on the structure of refining and continues on to coverthe refining industry in OECD countries, the United States, Western Europe, Japan,Singapore and the Caribbean, and closes with some conclusions. Chapter IV is onrefining expansions in OPEC and the Third World nations. The following are covered:nations of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, United ArabEmirates); OPEC members beyond the Gulf (Indonesia, Africa, Libya, Algeria, Nigeriaand Gabon, South America, Venezuela); other major exporters (China, Egypt, Malaysia,Mexico); non-OPEC developing countries—trends in the refining sector. The chapterends with a short summary on capacity prospects and comparative economics. The finalchapter has conclusions and recommendations on: price interactions between crude andproducts; product exports—impact on OPEC's internal; prices and market influence;importers and exporters—decisions; and course of action of the United States.

0705 Issues Surrounding Continuation of the Noncompetitive Oil and Gas LotterySystem.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community and EconomicDevelopment Division. April 4, 1985. 56pp.The Bureau of Land Management is responsible for the leasing of oil and gas mineralrights on over 300 million acres of public lands. Under the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920,lands with known oil and gas deposits are leased competitively. However, much morefederal land is leased through a noncompetitive lottery system, which generates sub-stantial receipts for the federal Treasury—about $250 million in filing fees for the five-yearperiod 1980 through 1984. The lottery system has been criticized since its 1959 inceptionfor encouraging fraud, misleading the public, and generating insufficient revenues. OnOctober 12, 1983, the program was suspended for ten months because of recognizedweaknesses in the system. This report highlights major issues surrounding the lotteryprogram.

0761 Future World Oil Prices: Modeling Methodologies and Summary of Recent Fore-casts.Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee. T.R. Curlee. April 1985. 84pp.This paper has three main objectives. First, the various methodologies that have beendeveloped to explain historical oil price changes and forecast future price trends arereviewed and summarized. Second, the paper summarizes recent world oil priceforecasts, and, when possible, discusses the methodologies used in formulating thoseforecasts. Third, utilizing conclusions from the reviews of the modeling methodologiesand the recent price forecasts, in combination with an assessment of recent andprojected oil markettrends, oil price projectionsaregivenforthe time period 1987 through2022. The paper argues that modeling methodologies have undergone significantevolution during the past decade as modelers increasingly recognize the complex andconstantly changing structure of the world oil market. Unfortunately, at this point in time aconsensus about the appropriate methodology to use in formulating oil price forecasts isyet to be reached. There is, however, a general movement toward the opinion that botheconomic and political factors should be considered when making price projections.Likewise, there is now consensus about future oil price trends. Forecasts differ widely.However, in general, forecasts have been adjusted downwardly in recent years. Further,an overall assessment of the forecasts and recent oil market trends suggests that oilprices will remain constant in real terms for the remainder of the 1980s. Real oil prices areexpected to increase by between 2 and 3 percent during the 1990s and beyond. Fore-casters are quick to point out, however, that all forecasts are subject to significantuncertainty.

0845 Selectively Reducing Offshore Royalty Rates in the Gulf of Mexico Could IncreaseOil Production and Federal Government Revenue.General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. Resources Community and EconomicDevelopment Division. May 10, 1985. 57pp.The U.S. government leases large areas in the Outer Continental Shelf in the Gulf ofMexico for the development of oil resources and receives royalties on the oil produced.Conventional methods of oil recovery have recovered or are expected to recover abouthalf of the 16 billion barrels of oil discovered in this area. Other oil recovery methods,collectively known as enhanced oil recovery (EOR), could potentially increase productionby about 1 billion barrels of oil. EOR in the Gulf is expensive and does not appear to beeconomically justified in most cases. Under existing economic conditions and federalpolicies, GAO's review indicates that utilizing EOR methods will probably produce onlyabout 10 percent of the additional recoverable oil. However, financial incentives in theform of royalty reductions could increase both oil production and federal governmentrevenue if applied on a project-by-project basis. Universal applications of royalty reduc-tion for EOR, however, while achieving increased oil production, would not increasefederal government revenue.

SUBJECT INDEXThe following index is a guide to the major subjects of the twelve reels. The Roman numeral refers

to the reel and the Arabic numeral refers to the frame within that reel; hence, II: 0007 is the seventhframe in the second reel.

Annual Energy Outlook1982V: 0868short-term X: 0001

Canadaenergy policy III: 0710national oil III: 0710

Coalsynthetic liquids I: 0585

Conservation activitiesoil and gas I: 0910

Consuming countrieseconomic profiles III: 0646

Crude oilreplacement cost XI: 0541surveillance fields XII: 0194U.S. V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873

Deregulationnatural gas II: 0969

Developing nationsfinancial development I: 0485oil imports I: 0425

Domestic oilcosts and indexes XII: 0327inventories VIII: 0001market forces IX: 0001, 0294replacement cost XI: 0541

Economic effectsderegulations II: 0969disruptions VIII: 0616

Economic profilesconsuming countries III: 0646

Energyannual V: 0113; VIII: 0090consumption III: 0775, 0887demands I: 0198; VIM: 0334international indicators I: 0217; II: 0940; IV:

0001; V: 0223international prices XI: 0318outlook V: 0864; X: 0001

policy I: 0079, 0301performance profiles I: 0790projection VI: 0134; IX: 0885security XI: 0584strategies II: 0813

Energy companiesdevelopment patterns VI: 0762Union Oil XI: 0677

Energy consumptionyear 2000 III: 0775, 0887

Energy industriesCanada III: 0362

Energy policyCanada III: 0710

Energy producersprofiles I: 0790; II: 0833; IV: 0277; XI:

0001, 0236

Energy projectionsyear 2000 VI: 0134year 2010 IV: 0885

Energy securityXI: 0584

Explorationdeterminants IX: 0732increased VIII: 0568Outer Continental Shelf I: 0256

Federal governmentenergy emergency I: 0079

Foreign investmentU.S. energy X: 0154

Free worldoil and gas II: 0229

Fuel switchingXI: 0584

Gasavailability II: 0229characteristics I: 0001conservation I: 0910

leasing policy II: 0402onshore exploration II: 0077Outer Continental Shelf II: 0001producibility VIII: 0439regulations II: 0001

Governmental responseI I : 0499

Gulf of Mexicooil production XII: 0845

Imports—oilcurtailment XI: 0869developing nations I: 0425disruptions III: 0057, 0144eliminating II: 0813outlook VI: 0741

International Energy AgencyXI: 0474

International Energy Annual1981 V:01131982 VIII: 0090

International energy indicatorsgeneral I: 0217; II: 0940; V: 02231981 IV: 0001

Intraindustry structureIV: 0116

InventoryU.S. petroleum VIII: 0580

Leasesfederal and Indian VIII: 0192offshore VI: 0904Outer Continental Shelf X: 0047rental income VIII: 0568

Leasing scheduleseffects I: 0257Outer Continental Shelf IV: 0093

Lottery systemXII: 0705

MacroeconomicsII: 0690; VII : 0149

Market forcesdomestic oil IX: 0001, 0294

MergersVI: 0397

National energy planII: 0324

Natural gasderegulation II: 0969liquid reserve V: 0001; VIII: 0001, X: 0873price VIII: 0391reserves V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873

Non-OECD countriesdemands VIII: 0334exploration IX: 0732

North Seapetroleum resources X: 0201

Offshoreleases VI: 0904royalty rates XII: 0845

Oilavailability II: 0229characteristics I: 0001conservation I: 0910disturbances VIII: 0265domestic VII: 0001energy demands I: 0198imports I: 0485; II: 0813; VI: 0741industry information X: 0112leasing policy II: 0402onshore exploration II: 0077Outer Continental Shelf II: 0001prices III: 0001producibility VIII: 0439recovery I: 0143regulations II: 0001replacement costs XI: 0869strategic planning VIII: 0677supply II: 0362U.S. crude V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873

Oil and gas regulationschronology V: 0253

Oil disturbancesimpacts VIII: 0265

Oil industryX:0113

Oil pricesbehavior IX: 0706economic effect VIII: 0616lower IX: 0855tax policies VII: 0149world 111:0001; V: 0921

Oil supplydisruptions II: 0362, 0690; VIII: 0616; IX:

0706; XI: 0474Onshore exploration

II: 0077Outer Continental Shelf

development II: 0001drilling strategies 1: 0256exploration I: 0256leasing II: 0402; IV: 0093; X: 0047reserves 2: 0001royalty rates 6: 0904

Performance profilesI: 0790; II: 0833; IV: 0277; XI: 0001, 0236

Petroleum industryintraindustry IV: 0116mergers VI: 0397optimization VIII: 0580

Petroleum productssales I: 0368

Petroleum reservesgeneral IV: 0030strategic VI: 0001

Petroleum resourcesNorth Sea X: 0201

Petroleum supplydisruption IX: 0001, 0294

Petroleum Supply Annual1981 volume I IV: 04491981 volume II IV: 06461982 volume I VII: 03651982 volume II VII: 05181983 volume IX: 03081983 volume II X: 0456

Pipelinenatural gas and petroleum I: 0301regulation I: 0301

Pricesenergy XI: 0318, 0712natural gas VIII: 0391world oil 111:0001; V: 0921

Productiondecline VI: 0267Gulf of Mexico XII: 0845short-term VIII: 0439

Refineryanalysis I: 0363

Refiningpetroleum industry II: 0324synthetic I: 0585U.S. XII: 0488

RegulationII: 0001 ;V: 0253

Reservescrude oil V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873estimation V: 0336; XII: 0001natural gas V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873petroleum VI: 0001; XI: 0645

Resourcesestimation V: 0336North Sea X: 0201

Revenuesgovernment VII: 0845mineral VIII: 0192petroleum I: 0363

Risk aversionXI: 0511

Shalefinancial assistance XI: 0677refining I: 0585

Stockpilingstrategic planning XI: 0511

Strategic planningOil VIM: 0677stockpiling XI: 0511

Strategic reservesXI: 0645

Strategydomestic production I: 0143

Surveillance fieldsproduction VII: 0194U.S. VI: 0267

Synthetic liquidscoal I: 0585

U.S.Congress VI: 0950crude oil V: 0001; VIII: 0001; X: 0873imports III: 0057, 0144reserves XII: 0001surveillance fields VI: 0267vulnerability XI: 0869

U.S. Congressenergy emergency VI: 0950

U.S. energyforeign investment V: 0154

Union OH Companyshale oil XI: 0677

World oilcrises II: 0499future XII: 0761general V: 0955lower prices IX: 0855market outlook III: 0001prices III: 0001; V: 0921; IX: 0706

World refining industrychanges XII: 0488

Also available—

Oil: The Federal InvestigationsOil and the Energy Crisis: The Federal Investigations,1974-1976 SupplementOil and the Energy Crisis: The Federal Investigations,1976-1978 SupplementOil and the Energy Crisis: The Federal Investigations,1978-1980 Supplement

UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA