Energy, Coal & Air Pollution in the UK, 1973-2013

Prof. Peter J G PearsonDirector, Low Carbon Research Institute of Wales

(LCRI)

Cardiff University, UK

Presentation for Workshops in

Sijiazhuang and Wuhan, China, 8 & 9 January 2014

Organised by British Embassy, Beijing

Outline: three sections

Changes in energy production & use, 1970-2012

– These changes had a major influence on UK air pollution

Changes in air pollution emissions, 1970-2012

– Associated with changes in energy production & use

The UK low carbon energy transition & policy issues for

the future

– the challenges of balancing energy system governance

issues, energy policy objectives & economic development

1. Changes in UK energy production &

use, 1970-2012

UNCLASSIFIED

UK transition in primary energy sources & outline of two

destabilisation periods for coal, 1880-2000

Source: Turnheim & Geels (2012); based on data from Fouquet & Pearson(1998:21) . See their paper for more explanation.

UK production & consumption of primary fuels, 1970-2012

Since 2005, total consumption

has fallen by 2% per year.

Total energy production fell each

year after 1999.

Natural gas production now 64%

below 2000 peak. Oil 44%

below 1999 level.

UK again import dependent after

2000.

UK productionUK inland consumption

UK production & consumption

Source: DECC (2013, Charts 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.4

UK final energy consumption, 1970-2012

In 1970, industry sector (including

iron & steel) biggest user, at 44 %

of total consumption.

This share fell to 18% in 2012.

Domestic sector share stable at

about 30% since 1980.

Greatest growth in transport: 19% in

1970; doubled to 38% in 2012.

--------------------------------------------------

In 1970, coal & other solid fuels

were 32 % of final consumption -

fell to 2% in 2012.

Natural gas consumption tripled:

10% in 1970 to 33% in 2012.

Electricity rose from 11% in 1970 to

20% in 2012.

Petroleum fell from 47% in 1970 to

43% in 2012.

Energy consumption by final user

Final energy consumption by type of fuel

Source: DECC (2013, Charts 1.1 .6, 1.1.7.

UK coal output, imports & employment (1970-2012)

UK coal output peaked in

1913 at 292 million tonnes

(mt); 3,020 deep mines; 1.1

million workers

Downward trend in output

since mid-1950s

Miner’s strike 1984-85

Many mines closed from

1986

Electricity privatised in 1990;

coal imports rising

Faster mine closures 1992-

93

Coal privatised 1994

2012: UK coal output 17mt;

imports 45mt; 6000 workers

Data Source:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224633/coal_since_1853_historical_data.xls

Miners

’ Strike

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

198

0

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

199

4

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

200

8

2010

2012

Tho

usa

nd

s

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Coal Imports

Opencast Output

Deepmined Output

Employment (righthand scale; 000s)

0il price

rises,

‘73, ‘79

Coal

privatised

UK Consumption of Coal, 1970-2012

Source: DECC (2013)

Since 1970,

coal’s main

role as

feedstock for

electricity

generating

power stations

Miners’

strike

Coal

privatised

Electricity

privatised

UK Consumption of Coal, 1970-2012

Total coal consumption for all uses fell by 59% from 157 million

tonnes (mt) in 1970 to 64mt in 2012.

Coal for electricity peaked at 90mt in 1980. In 80-90mt range

until 1991(except miners’ strike).

Coal for electricity fell from 1991 until 1999, as UK’s energy

mix got more diverse

Environmental regulations (UK & EC), high coal prices &

electricity privatisation made natural gas more attractive to

generators.

In 2012, 86% of all coal use was for electricity compared with

only 49% in 1970.

Coal’s major role is now feedstock for

electricity generation

The decline of the UK coal industry after 1970

New Conservative Government elected 1979, re-elected 1983

Agenda: break power of National Union of Mineworkers (NUM);

change inefficient state-owned monopoly into viable private firm

1984-85 NUM strike a turning point for coal

Strike ended in Spring 1985 after much bitterness & hardship

Mid-1970s governments had unrealistic plans to increase coal

output to 170mt by 2000 – the actual output was 31mt.

By 1980 coal had lost its gas production market & most

industrial & domestic sales; dependent on favourable contracts

from state-owned electricity firm

The remains of the coal industry were privatised in 1994

UK Fuel input for electricity generation, 1970-2102

1970: coal was more than 2/3 of fuel input for electricity.

Oil use peaked in 1972, at 29% of fuel input, but fell after 1973 oil supply/price crisis.

Nuclear share grew from 11% in 1970 to 29% of fuel input - but has fallen since.

EC ban on gas in power generation until 1991; then rapid growth after electricity privatisation.

Share of other fuels (landfill gas, co-firing, waste combustion & wind) rose to 11% by 2012.

Data source:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224644/electricity_since_1920_historic

al_data.xls

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

of

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Other

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Volume (Million tonnes oil equivalent)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

Other

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Shares (%)

2. Changes in UK air pollution emissions,

1970-2012

UNCLASSIFIED

UK electricity: CCGTs & emissions, 1991-2000

After 1990 electricity privatisation, rapid

investment in CCGTs, using North Sea gas –

called the ‘Dash for Gas’

Gas & nuclear have much lower pollution

emission factors than coal & oil

From 1990-1996: electricity generated rose by

9%, fuel input fell by 8%, CO2 fell by 20%,

SO2 fell by 51% and NO2 by 43%. Why?

Changing capacity & fuel mix (inc. nuclear)

Rising power station fuel efficiency ,

especially CCGTs

Enhanced NOx & SOx emission control

– New low NOx burners at coal-fired

stations

– introduction from 1993 of flue-gas

desulphurisation (FGD) on coal plants

By 1996, 59% fall in total SO2 emissions

from 1980 baseline; 9% ahead of United

Nations Economic Commission for Europe

(UNECE) target level for year 2000

Cumulative installed capacity, combined

cycle gas turbines (CCGT), 1991-2000, MW

Source: Kern (2012)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

CO2.

SO2

NOx

Electricity generated

Index of Emissions per unit of Electricity

Generated, UK, 1989-96 (1990 = 100)

CCGTs: cumulative

installed capacity

Source: Pearson (2000)

Trends in UK air pollutant emissions, 1970-2012

Long term decrease in

emissions of all pollutants

covered

CO2 (not shown) fell after

1991

Electricity privatisation made

it much easier for UK to

meet United Nations

Economic Commission for

Europe’s (UNECE) 2nd

Sulphur Protocol targets.

And the 2003 requirements

of the EC’s 1988 Large

Combustion Plant Directive

(88/609/EEC)

And to the Kyoto targets to

cut CO2 to 1990 levels by

2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ammonia

Nitrogen Oxides

Sulphur Dioxide

Non-methane volatileorganic compoundspm10

pm2.5

Trends in UK emissions of SOx, NOx, non-methane Volatile Organic

Compounds (VOCs), ammonia & particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5):

indexes, 1970 = 100

Data source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/266491/website__trends-

air-emissions_2012.xls. See also:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/266489/Emissions_of_air_pollutants_sta

tistical_release_2013.pdf

Long term decrease in UK emissions of all pollutants covered

For PM10, PM2.5 & non-methane VOCs, the

rate of decline was fastest in1990s & has slowed

Reductions came from regulatory controls &

other means, such as:

– Switching from coal to gas, nuclear & renewables

in power stations (but emission reductions were

not an aim of 1990 electricity privatisation)

– Cutting fuel use, partly through higher efficiency

– Changes in industrial processes

– Pollutant capture or conversion (e.g. catalytic

converters on vehicles from 1993, flue gas

desulphurisation (FGD) on coal power stations,

low-Nox burners);

– Behaviour change

– Changing economic structure & conditions

Energy use & Air Pollution in London,

‘London’s air quality has improved dramatically since the 1950s when legislation was

introduced ... ‘But despite this, air pollution is still an issue for Londoners, affecting health

and everyday quality of life.’ (Mayor of London, 2010)

‘Since the Mayor’s Air Quality Strategy was published, Defra has reported that London

now meets the PM10 requirements set by the European Commission. However, along with

many other European cities, parts of London are not meeting EU targets for nitrogen

dioxide (NO2).’ (Mayor of London, 2013)

Energy use in London 1950-2000

Source: Mayor of London (2002), Figs. 3 & 4

Annual average smoke & SO2

concentrations in London

International, European & national standards for air quality

The UK is compliant with its 2010 national emission ceilings for air pollutants.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on

Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution has agreed protocols, including the

Gothenburg Protocol - sets national emission reduction targets for 2020.

The EU ambient air quality directives set limits/ targets for concentrations of

pollutants in outdoor air (including fine PM), to protect health & ecosystems

UK meets European air quality standards for nearly all pollutants. The main

challenge is in meeting Nox limits alongside roads in cities & towns.

The EC is reviewing air quality policy. EU Directives include:

– Ambient Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) and Directive 2004/107/EC:

which set limits for pollutant concentrations in outdoor air

EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001/81/EC): sets limits on total

annual emissions of important air pollutants for all member states to help reduce

‘transboundary air pollution’ .

National legislation & standards: air quality is a devolved matter, though the UK

government leads on European & international legislation.

UK national legislation & standards on air quality*

UK government leads on European & international legislation

But devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales & Northern

Ireland are responsible for their air quality policy & legislation

Part IV of The Environment Act 1995 sets provisions for

protecting air quality in the UK & local air quality management

The Air Quality (Standards) Regulations 2010 transposes into

English law the requirements of European Directives 2008/50/EC

& 2004/107/EC on ambient air quality. Equivalent regulations

have been made by the devolved administrations

The Air Quality (England) Regulations 2000 set national

objectives for local authorities in England

The National Emission Ceilings Regulations 2002 transpose into

UK legislation the requirements of the National Emission Ceilings

Directive (2001/81/EC)* Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/protecting-and-enhancing-our-urban-and-natural-environment-to-improve-public-health-and-wellbeing/supporting-

pages/international-european-and-national-standards-for-air-quality

Changing views on Pollution Control in the UK (i)

In 1988, after 5 years of resistance & complaints from Scandinavia, UK

accepted EC Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) targets, to cut

national & trans-boundary damage from acid rain

This required challenging, potentially costly reductions of SOx & NOx,

especially from coal-fired power plants.

By 1990 the UK government agreed Climate Change was a major

global challenge & endorsed using economic instruments to address

pollution.

Growing acceptance by UK & European governments of need to use

energy policy to deal with greenhouse gases

Included gradual return to state co-ordination & planning, after a period

when the private market had been expected to deliver the objectives of

energy & climate policy

UK position on trans-boundary air pollution & CO2 much easier after

the 1990s ‘Dash for Gas’ displaced many coal plants

Changing views on Pollution Control in the UK (ii)

Many changes in industry, energy production & use from the 1970s

cut air pollution but not because of environmental policies

Other pollution cuts were caused by environmental policies &

especially by worries about impacts on human health & quality of life

Recently UK has recognised the importance of ecosystem services

(http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/), the need to estimate economic

benefits & costs of pollution control (https://www.gov.uk/air-quality-

economic-analysis) and scientific/ medical evidence

(http://www.comeap.org.uk/)

Some continue to worry about the costs & growth implications of

pollution control, but there is little evidence to indicate big trade-offs

and no-one wants to return to the London smogs & bad air quality.

UK Committee on Climate Change suggests that the growth penalty

for meeting the 2050 CO2 targets is relatively small.

But tensions remain between energy policy objectives, energy system

governance & energy technology choices, as we discuss next.

3. The UK low carbon energy transition &

policy issues for the future

UNCLASSIFIED

The UK Low Carbon Transition

1940s: energy utilities (coal, gas, electricity) nationalised

1987-1994: energy utilities privatised; ‘Dash for Gas’

2008: Department of Energy & Climate Change created

2008: Climate Change Act (all-party political support)

– State commitment: cut GHG emissions to 80% of 1990 level by 2050

– Independent Committee on Climate Change recommends 5-year

carbon budgets (caps), 15 years into future

2009: Low Carbon Transition Plan; 2011: Carbon Plan

2013: Energy Bill – includes Electricity Market Reform:

– UK carbon price floor for electricity

– Feed-in-tariffs (CfDs) for low carbon electricity

– Capacity market (auctions for new capacity, inc. storage & DSR)

– Emissions performance standard for new fossil stations

Where next?

Realising Transition Pathways Research Project (2012-16)

Aims:

– Develop three transition pathways to 2050, for a ‘more electric’ UK low carbon future, including heat & transport

– Do Integrated ‘whole system’ assessments of pathways’ technical, economic, social & environmental implications

– Inform thinking/ decisions on low carbon transitions & ‘how to get to a low carbon electricity system from here’

Multi-disciplinary University Research Consortium

– 9 UK universities: team of engineers, social scientists & innovation specialists; funded by UK Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)

– http://www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/

Project focus on 3 ‘actor groups’ & governance

State, Market & Civil Society groups follow different ‘logics’ that

frame their views of the world & other actors; they try to ‘enrol’

others into their way of thinking:

– Central Co-ordination sees a dominant role for state actors

to co-ordinate energy systems to deliver policy goals

– Market Rules says energy policy objectives are best achieved

by market actors competing in a high-level policy framework

– Thousand Flowers sees citizens playing a leading role in how

the energy system operates & is governed

We used this to explore UK low carbon energy transition

pathways to 2050, with each pathway built around one logic

Pathways are not predictions but tools for thinking about the

future

Three Transition Pathways for UK Electricity

Market Rules

Limited interference in market arrangements; high carbon price

Large companies dominate; big technologies in ‘highly electric’ future – inc.

coal/gas with Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS), nuclear power, offshore wind

80% generation linked to high-voltage in 2050: grid reinforcement

Central Co-ordination

Central Government & Strategic Energy Agency commission low-carbon

electricity generation from big companies

Via large-scale centralised technologies

Cooperation & tensions between key actors

Thousand Flowers

More local, bottom-up diverse solutions led by Energy Service Companies (big &

small), local communities & NGOs: closer engagement of end-users

Local leadership in decentralized options (50% share)

Key technologies: onshore & offshore wind, renewable Combined Heat and

Power (CHP) & solar PhotoVoltaic; ‘smart grid’ technologies to handle power flows

High level challenges for the UK Transition

Balancing the Policy Trilemma:

– Reduce carbon emissions & address other pollutants

– Maintain energy security (supply-demand balance, supply diversity)

– Affordability, equity & competitiveness of energy services (household

bills; investment & system costs; impacts on trade)

Systemic factors:

– Technical feasibility

– Institutional Flexibility

– Social acceptability

– Environmental impacts – physical & human

– Economic impacts - Who benefits? Who pays?

Evolving governance:

– where will/should the current State/Market hybrid go? How far should

Civil society be involved?

A Perspective on Energy Transitions & ‘Green Growth’

Energy transitions & ‘green growth’ depend on the

interplay within & between 3 policy ‘spaces’:

– Energy policy objectives

» How to balance Environmental Pollution & Climate Change,

Energy Security & Equity, Affordability & Competitiveness

– Energy system governance

» What roles for the Market, the State & Civil society?

– Technology & growth

» How to develop technologies that contribute both to

environment and economic development (sometimes called

‘green growth’)

The interplay of these policy areas will have big

influences on energy transition & ‘green growth’ pathways

Bringing the choices together in the UK

Successful energy transitions & ‘green growth’ will be

influenced by how the UK handles these choices

The UK has to think about

– What priorities should policies aim for?

– Who should aim for them & with what forms of governance?

– With what types of technologies & practices?

How might the interplay between energy policy, governance &,

technology & ‘green growth’ play out in future energy system

transitions?

Decisions about these choices will exert major long-term

influences on energy transition pathways & outcomes

– With consequences for energy policy, industrial policy,

environmental policy & air pollution

Sources & Notes

Note: This presentation draws on research by the author & colleagues in the Realising Transition Pathways project, funded by EPSRC

(Grant EP/K005316/1) http://www.realisingtransitionpathways.org.uk/. He is responsible for all views stated.

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