Energy Choice Simulator : BTAG Results Great Plains Institute Midwest Governors Association August...

Energy Choice Simulator:

BTAG Results

Great Plains InstituteMidwest Governors Association

August 05, 2009

Agenda

• BTAG Process, now through October• Energy Roadmap– Review Executive Summary priority policies– Review process

• Modeling results• Review graphs for Energy Roadmap BTAG

chapter

BTAG Process

• Policy Options Document– Very close to sending out final version for full AG

approval– Cluster approval of BT 2 occurring– Finalizing BT 1 and cluster approval will occur next

week• Energy Roadmap • Review of modeling results

MGA Jobs & Energy Summit, October 6-7, 2009

Detroit, Michiganwww.midwestgovernors.org

http://www.midwestgovernors.org/

Roadmap Action Item#1 for BTAGLow Carbon Fuel Standard

• Establish detailed design considerations for a regional low carbon fuel standard, by working with impacted stakeholders, that will decrease the life cycle GHG intensity of transportation fuels by 10% in ten years from the start of the program.

Change to: • Develop a model regional low carbon fuel standard, by

working with impacted stakeholders, that will decrease the life cycle GHG intensity of transportation fuels by 10% in ten years from the start of the program.

Roadmap Action Item #2 for BTAGReduce Vehicle Miles Traveled

• MGA states should adopt a goal of reducing vehicle miles driven per capita 15% by 2020, 28% by 2035, and 40% by 2050, and adopt a range of strategies including investment in transit, bike and pedestrian infrastructure, building the Midwest Regional Rail and changing development patterns in order to meet those goals.

Change to: • MGA jurisdictions should adopt a goal of reducing vehicle miles

driven per capita 15% by 2020, 28% by 2035, and 40% by 2050, and adopt a range of strategies including investment in transit, bike and pedestrian infrastructure, building the Midwest Regional Rail and changing development patterns in order to meet the goal.

Roadmap Action Item #3 for BTAGPay-as-you-drive Insurance

• Endorse a process for MGA states to study their laws and regulations to determine what barriers exist that prevent insurers from offering mileage-based insurance, and take steps to eliminate those barriers.

Change to: • MGA jurisdictions should commit to eliminate

regulatory barriers that prevent insurers from offering mileage-based insurance.

Roadmap Action Item #4 for BTAGIncrease Regional Biomass Supply

• Adopt strategies to increase biomass supply in the region such as conducting an inventory of biomass resources, identifying sustainability guidelines for production and harvest and regional demonstration opportunities, funding research development at land grant colleges and leveraging funding to the region to increase the amount of the biomass produced.

Change to: • MGA jurisdictions should commit to enacting all needed

strategies to increase the market for sustainable, renewable, biomass for utilization by a variety of energy technologies.

Advisory Group Roadmap Review Process

• Draft BTAG chapter ready for review– Draft sent out August 5th COB– Feedback from AG members due August 13th COB– Feedback from AG member incorporated – Energy Roadmap sent to steering committee for

review August 24th

• MGA steering committee conducts final review and editing of roadmap (August 24-September 24)

Assumptions

• How we are going to use the model results (not a delphic oracle)

• Illustrate the impact of policies in a relative sense and show broad dynamics

• Not for calculating exact numbers or quantitative results

• Oil Sands: 20% of regional oil production in 2005

Overview of 7 BTAG Policies• Low Carbon Fuel Standard– 10% reduction by 2020– 30% reduction by 2030

• VMT Policies– VMT Goal– Pay as you drive (PAYD)– Ecodriver– Fleet Modernization

• Blend Wall– 10%, 15%, None

Modeling BaselineCapital and O&M costs based on:

– ICF assumptions, EIA– Biodiesel Board, NETL, CenterPoint Energy

Fossil Fuel and Biomass Feedstock Prices:– EIA AEO 2009, ICF biomass curves

Existing and Currently Proposed Policies:– CAFE/Clean Car (35.5 mpg by 2016)– Federal RFS– Blend Wall: enough to meet Federal RFS

LCFS Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Annual Transportation CO2e Emissions

MGA Baseline10% LCFS30% LCFS30% LCFS and Corn Improvements30% LCFS and ILUC

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

Corn Improvements: 30% reduction of LCAILUC: Indirect Land Use Change

Discussion

• How are you accounting for ILUC?– Numbers for biodiesel, cellulosic and corn grain ethanol

are from CARB– California is revising those numbers– Data can be updated as more current data becomes

available• How are you handling technological innovation?– Adjustments can be made to the assumptions to account

for technological innovation– POET can provide numbers on technological

improvements in ethanol production

LCFS Results (UPDATED)

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


VMT Goal InvestmentPAYDLCFS 10% by 2020LCFS 30% by 2030VMT+PAYD+LCFS10%VMT+PAYD+LCFS30%Baseline

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

*Any of these data series can be omitted on the final graph

LCFS Results

20002007

20142021

20282035

20422049

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

Fuel Mix - Baseline

Natural GasCoal to LiquidsBiodieselCellulosic EthanolCorn Grain EthanolOil

Trill

ion

BTUs

20002006

20122018

20242030

20362042

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Fuel Mix - 10% LCFS

Trill

ion

BTUs

20002006

20122018

20242030

20362042

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Fuel Mix - 30% LCFS

Trill

ion

BTUs

LCFS Results UPDATED

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

20422045

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Fuel Mix - Baseline


Trill

ion

BTU

s

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

20422045

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Fuel Mix - LCFS 10% by 2020

Trill

ion

BTU

s

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

20422045

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Fuel Mix – LCFS 30% by 2030

Trill

ion

BTU

s

LCFS Results

20002007

20142021

20282035

20422049

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Fuel Mix - 30% LCFS


Trill

ion

BTUs

20002006

20122018

20242030

20362042

20480

50010001500200025003000350040004500

Fuel Mix - 30% LCFS and Corn Improvements

Trill

ion

BTUs

20002006

20122018

20242030

20362042

20480

50010001500200025003000350040004500

Fuel Mix - 30% LCFS and ILUC

Trill

ion

BTUs

Discussion

• How will you be accounting for advanced biofuels that will be coming online in 2010-2015– Biogasoline– Biobutunol– Renewable diesel ect.

• We will talk offline about how to account for those fuels.

VMT PoliciesOverall VMT goal• Reduce 15% by 2020, 28% by 2035, 40% by 2050• ~$1 billion/year toward each policy

Pay as you drive• 15% market penetration by 2015, 75% by 2025

Ecodriver program• 10% Emission Reduction• 1% per year adoption

Fleet modernization• Average vehicle life Reduce from 13 years to 9 years from

2010-2015

Discussion

• Does fleet modernization take into account emissions from vehicle production?– Model accounts for tailpipe and fuel production

emissions• What policy drives the accelerated turn over

rate of vehicles?– Not a specific policy tied to the fleet modernization

mechanism in the model– Wanted to explore how we might model this type of

policy to set up a structure for future runs

Cost Assumptions

Transit: $2.20 / mile reducedBike Lanes: $0.71 / mile reducedVan Pools: $0.48 / mile reducedHigh Speed Rail: $0.16 / mile reducedIntercity Rail: $0.16 / mile reducedSource: Transportation Research Record 1641, Paper No. 98-1100

$1 Billion invested in EACH area, every year

Discussion

• Numbers seem to be a little high compared to other sources that are out there– Lynne Bly could provide some updated numbers– Need to add some discussion in the text that

messages cost savings associated with implementing transportation infrastructure improvements

– Modeling purposes need to have investments rates

VMT Policy Results

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


VMT Goal InvestmentPAYDEcodriverFleet ModernizationBaseline

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

VMT Policy Results UPDATED

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400



Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

VMT Policy Results

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Annual VMT per Vehicle

Baseline VMT Goal Investment PAYD Ecodriver Fleet ModernizationM

iles

VMT Policy Results UPDATED

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000Annual VMT per Vehicle

Baseline

VMT Goal Investment

PAYD

VMT Goal Investment + PAYD + LCFP 10%

Mile

s

VMT Policy Results

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Fuel Economy (Gasoline)

BaselineVMT GoalPAYDEcodriverFleet Modernization

Mile

s pe

r G

allo

n (M

PG)

Discussion

• PAYD should affect the amount of driving you do and not necessarily the type of vehicle you drive– Not sure this result is particularly useful

Blend Wall

20002007

20142021

20282035

20422049

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

Fuel Mix - 10% Blend Wall


Trill

ion

BTUs

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500

500100015002000250030003500400045005000

Fuel Mix - 15% Blend Wall

Trill

ion

BTUs

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Fuel Mix - No Blend Wall

Trill

ion

BTUs

Roadmap Graphs

• We can choose 4 charts to illustrate 4 policies:– LCFS– VMT-reduction– PAYD– Biomass (no good data chart exists)– Add Eco-driver?

• Do these 4 charts illustrate BTAG’s priorities?

Fuel Mixture – 10% LCFS

20002004

20082012

20162020

20242028

20322036

20402044

20480

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Fuel Mix - 10% LCFS

ElectricityNatural GasCoal to LiquidsBiodieselCellulosic EthanolCorn Grain EthanolOilTr

illio

n BT

Us

20002006

20122018

20242030

20362042

20480

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Fuel Mix - Baseline

Trill

ion

BTUs

Discussion• This slides shows fuels and not emissions• This is not meant to show the exact amount of fuel that will be

produced• This is illustrative of the type of fuel mix that might exist• LCFS policy goal was meant over a 10 year period and projecting out

to 2050 might be misleading. – More likely to use graphs running out to 2030– Might want to consider adding when the policy starts and when it would

end– Use a caption in the roadmap to help illustrate the point the chart is

trying to make• Space limitation of 4 charts

– Emission charts might be more interesting than speculative fuels charts

LCFS Emissions

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


BaselineLCFS 10% by 2020LCFS 30% by 2030

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

Annual Emissions UPDATED

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400



Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

Emissions UPDATED

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

20300

50

100

150

200

250

Annual Avoided Emissions

30% LCFS10% LCFSPAYDVMT Goal Investment

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

CO

2e

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

20300

200400600800

100012001400160018002000

Cumulative Avoided Emissions

30% LCFS10% LCFSPAYDVMT Goal Investment

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

CO

2e

Annual VMT/vehicle

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Annual VMT per Vehicle

Baseline VMT Goal Investment PAYD Fleet Modernization

Mile

s

Annual VMT/vehicle UPDATED

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000Annual VMT per Vehicle

Baseline

VMT Goal Investment

PAYD

VMT Goal Investment + PAYD + LCFP 10%

Mile

s

Annual Emissions

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


VMT Goal InvestmentPAYDEcodriverFleet ModernizationBaselineLCFS 10% by 2020LCFS 30% by 2030

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons C

O2e

Discussion

• Fleet modernization and eco-driver might just confuse the issue and we should consider taking them out (need paper on eco-driver and fleet modernization)

• Including other top action items (LCFS) would illustrate at a very high level what we are proposing

• Consider a stacked chart

BTAG Charts

• Are these the right charts for the roadmap?• What would you change?

Next steps (reminder)

• Draft BTAG chapter ready for review– Draft sent out August 5th COB– Feedback from AG members due August 13th COB– Feedback from AG member incorporated – Energy Roadmap sent to steering committee for

review August 24th

• MGA steering committee conducts final review and editing of roadmap (August 24-September 24)

Energy Choice Simulator : BTAG Results Great Plains Institute Midwest Governors Association August...

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