Energy boom and groundwater bust: Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border regionimplications for the U.S. border region

Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007

Energy Boom and Energy Boom and Groundwater BustGroundwater BustMexico’s Water-Energy Mexico’s Water-Energy Nexus with Implications Nexus with Implications

for the U.S. Border Regionfor the U.S. Border Region

Christopher ScottChristopher Scott University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona

Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, andand

Udall Center for Studies in Public PolicyUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy

What Nexus?What Nexus?

Resources – water and energy are coupled in fundamental ways

Management – of water or energy in isolation likely has (unforeseen) consequences for the other resource

Sustainability – policy tools for water, energy need to be mutually reinforcing

Water-Energy CouplingWater-Energy Coupling

Groundwater Inter-basin

transfers Municipal supply Wastewater, reuse

reservoir storageevaporative

demand

energy for pumpinglift, distributiontreatment,

distributiontreatment,

desalination

Hydropower Thermo-power

cooling

Resource FeedbacksResource Feedbacks

Water use

Energy

demand

Energy use

Water dema

nd

De-coupled De-coupled Management…Management… Water management options tend to externalize energy implications, e.g.: ~70 billion kWh/yr for U.S. water and

wastewater projected to increase 20% in 15 years greater if “desalination roadmap” is followed

water represents 1/3 of municipal energy budgets

groundwater irrigation is a large % of total electricity demand, e.g., in Mexico 10% in Sonora state 17% in Chihuahua state 30% in Zacatecas state

… … Needs to be [Re-] Needs to be [Re-] CoupledCoupled Energy management needs

to internalize water implications: increased hydropower reliance

entails sectoral water reallocation cooling water salt concentrations a

major challenge (e.g., Phoenix’s Palo Verde uses high TDS effluent)

Sustainability and PolicySustainability and Policy

Behind groundwater boom-bust cycles (e.g., Mexico) are energy supply and pricing. Conversely:

Energy supply and pricing offer tools for sustainable groundwater management

Global Groundwater Global Groundwater BoomBoom

Groundwater Irrigation Ranking

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

IndiaUSAChinaPakistan

Iran

BangladeshMexico

Saudi Arabia

ItalyTurkey

SyriaBrazil

('000 ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

%

GW Area (000 ha)

% Cropped Area

Source: Shah (in review); FAO AQUASTAT (2002).

26,000

… … Leading to Leading to Groundwater BustGroundwater Bust

Number of Wells in MexicoNumber of Wells in Mexico GW GW Irrigation in IndiaIrrigation in India

India, Irrigated Area by Source

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Million ha

Groundw ater

Surface (Minor)

Surface (Major/Medium)

Mexico, Number of Agricultural Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1000 wells

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

A

SC

EN

CIO

N

BA

JA B

AB

ICO

RA

CA

SA

S G

RA

ND

ES

F

.M.-

V. A

HU

MA

DA

C

HIH

-SA

CR

AM

EN

TO

ME

OQ

UI-

DE

LIC

IAS

J

IME

NE

Z-C

AM

AR

GO

JU

AR

EZ

(Z. U

rban

a)

P

AR

RA

L-V

. DE

L V

.

TA

B.-

AL

DM

A

C

UA

UH

TE

MO

C

ACUIFEROS SOBREEXPLOTADOS

ABATIMIENTO MEDIO EN m/año

1 VALLE DE JUAREZ2 ASCENCION3 CASAS GRANDES4 F.M.-V. AHUMADA5 BAJA BABICORA6 CUAUHTEMOC7 CHIHUAHUA-SACRAMENTO8 TABALAOPA-ALDAMA9 DELICIAS10 JIMENEZ-CAMARGO11 PARRAL-EL VERANO

DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LOS ACUIFEROS

SOBREEXPLOTADOS25° N

26° N

27° N

28° N

29° N

30° N

31° N

32° N

500

E s c a l a g r á f i c a

100 kms.

CUENCAS CERRADASDEL NORTE

VERTIENTESDEL OESTE

ALTO BRAVO

CONCHOS - MAPIMI

Proyección Longitud - Latitud

E X P L I C A C I O N

LIMITE ESTATAL

LIMITE INTERNACIONAL

NOMBRE DE LA REGION

REGIONES DE PLANEACION HIDROLOGICA

<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

EN EQUILIBRIO

SOBREEXPLOTADO

E X P L I C A C I O N

<<<<<<<<<SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCALMANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION

LOCALIDADES MAS POBLADAS

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

Est

e p

lan

o e

s es

qu

emát

ico

ACUIFEROS Y ZONAS DE VEDA

Programa Hidráulico de Gran VisiónC H I H U A H U A 1996 - 2020.

API DHTA PROINFRAFecha:nov 96'.

COMISION NACIONAL DEL AGUA

Figura 8-2

E X P L I C A C I O N

SOBREEXPLOTADO

EN EQUILIBRIO

SUBEXPLOTADO

SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION

No. Y NOMBRE DEL ACUIFERO

CABECERA MUNICIPALJimenez

1. Ascención

Nuevo Casas Grandes

Madera

Meoqui

Delicias

Hidalgo del Parral

Saucillo

1. Ascención

6. Casas Grandes

3. Baja Babícora

35. TabaloapaAldama

33. Valle de Juárez

21. Villa AhumadaFlores Magón

Chihuahua

30. ChihuahuaSacramento

Camargo

32. JimenezCamargo

34. ParralValle de Verano

Jimenez

Cuauhtémoc

Ojinaga

Juárez

5. Cuauhtémoc

10. Samalayuca

31. MeoquiDelicias

12. Palomas

4. San Buenaventura

7. SauzEncinillas

9. Laguna deMexicanos

8

28

29 11 23

17

25

1827

26

13

1419

2058

59

24

2 3742

39

55

52

47

22

60

46

38

40

1615 41

36

49 51

4445

43

50

53

54

5748

56

ZONA CON DECRETO DE VEDA

Groundwater-Energy Groundwater-Energy Supply NexusSupply Nexus

Groundwater overdraft and multiple impacts are driven by electricity supply and pricing

Increasing Volume, Increasing Volume, Declining ShareDeclining Share

High Energy % for GW High Energy % for GW PumpingPumping

Ag. Groundwater Ag. Groundwater Pumped, 2005Pumped, 2005(derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 (derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 kmkm33/year)/year)

Country Annual groundwater

use (km3)

No. of GW structures (million)

Extraction/ structure (m3/year)

% of population dependent on groundwater

India 150 19 7,900 55-60

Pakistan-Punjab 45 0.5 90,000 60-65

China 75 3.5 21,500 22-25

Iran 45 0.5 58,000 12-18

Mexico 29 0.1 400,000 5-6

USA 100 0.2 500,000 <1-2

Aquifer OverdraftAquifer Overdraft

GW Sustainability GW Sustainability InitiativesInitiatives

1992 - water rights, titling wells Registro Público de Derechos de Agua (REPDA) annual concessioned volume water meters, but monitoring or compliance

inadequate Water resource (river basin) master

plans bans on new wells in overdrafted aquifers recharge programs (controversial, runoff

impacts) groundwater user committees

Ag. GW Share of Total Ag. GW Share of Total Water TitledWater Titled

GW Titled ≠ GW PumpedGW Titled ≠ GW Pumped

2002 – Mexico seized the 2002 – Mexico seized the GW-energy nexus GW-energy nexus opportunityopportunity Rural Energy Law (Ley de Energía

para el Campo) primarily to level the playing field for Mexican agriculture under NAFTA

Power tariff structure modified with medium-term subsidy support

Sliding-scale ag. power tariff with threshold fixed by energy equivalent of groundwater volume titled

2003 – lost the thread? … 2003 – lost the thread? … with lower night-time ag. with lower night-time ag. tariff, but ineffective controls tariff, but ineffective controls on volume or area irrigatedon volume or area irrigatedTarifas

($/ kWh)2003 2004 2005

1. Doméstica 0.7496 0.793 0.8356Dom. alto consumo 1.728 2.0443 2.1236

5A. Servicios públicos 1.3353 1.4186 1.4915

6. Agua Negras y Potables 0.9727 1.041 1.0982

9. Agrícola baja tension 0.3805 0.4211 0.5357

9M. Agrícola media tension 0.3933 0.4816 0.60519CU. Agrícola costo unitario 0.3156 0.3928 0.435

9N. Agrícola nocturna 0.281 0.3409 0.3657

32% difference

Example: Chihuahua tariffs

US$ 1.00 = Mex$ 10.80

Sonora Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Chihuahua Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Coahuila Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Guanajuato Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Growth, night Growth, night ag. power ag. power consumptionconsumption

Shift to Night-time Shift to Night-time Irrigation Irrigation

Financially, A Losing Financially, A Losing Proposition?Proposition?

… … But Overall Profits HighBut Overall Profits High

GW-Based Intensive Ag. GW-Based Intensive Ag. ProductionProduction Exports to U.S., Canada, Pacific

rim Expanding Mexican domestic

market Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora) grapes Cuauhtemoc (Chihuahua) apples

Low water productivity in basic grains (wheat, corn) competing with high productivity horticulture

High Per-User Volumes High Per-User Volumes (Titled)(Titled)

Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Exports to the U.S. are Exports to the U.S. are GroundwaterGroundwater

Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Imports are Rainwater (w Imports are Rainwater (w supplemental irrigation)supplemental irrigation) Corn… despite the ethanol-

tortilla debacle Wheat Grain-fed beef Other animal products Deciduous fruit

Virtual WaterVirtual Water

Failure of the Virtual Water Argument: possible explanations using the case study of Mexico and NAFTA – manuscript by Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers

ConclusionsConclusions

Boom (partial collapse) of groundwater in northern Mexico fueled by electricity supply and pricing

CNA (water) and CFE (electricity) at institutional loggerheads

Energy supply management a promising tool for water demand management

Future ChallengesFuture Challenges

Should Mexico seek to manage virtual exports of groundwater? How?

Urban growth in (northern) Mexico will increasingly appropriate groundwater

Water-energy nexus for desalination?

Thank you.Thank you.Christopher Scott

cascott@email.arizona.edu

(520) 626-4393Acknowledgements

Comisión Nacional del Agua Comisión Federal de Electricidad Tushaar Shah, International Water Management Institute Ana María Caliz, Tendencias – Consultores en Economía Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers, Harvard University