Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India

Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization

Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in IndiaEnergy and Climate Change Mitigation in India::Development, Technologies and StabilizationDevelopment, Technologies and Stabilization

GTSP Technical ReviewMay 23, 2007

JGCRI, College Park, MD 20740 USA

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India


AgendaAgenda

Drivers of Energy and Emissions

Base Case Projections

Low Carbon Society (with Sustainable Development)

Stabilization (with Carbon Interventions)


Drivers of Energy and Emissions and Base Case Projections


Population and GDPPopulation and GDP

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Bill

ions

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$40

Thou

sand

$/c

apita

(200

0$)

Population

GDP/Capita

1,800 $45

$30

$35


Demographic Transitions in IndiaDemographic Transitions in India

Population Projec tion for 2030

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-4 5-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

Age

gro

up

Populat ion (million)

Female Male

Population Projec tion for 2010

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-4 5-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

Age

gro

up

Population (million)

Female Male

Population Projec t ion for 2050

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-4 5-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

Age

gro

up


Female Male

Population in 1970

50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50

0-4 5-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+

Age

gro

up


Female Male

1970 2010

2030 2050


Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/RuralDemographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural

Urban & Rural population of India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

50

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

% S

hare

RuralUrban


Population and Population and Working Age PopulationWorking Age Population

Population (Million)

358

555

849

1183

14491593

0200400600800

1000120014001600

1800

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Population

2.22% 2.15%

1.67%

1.02%

0.47%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50

Labor Supply

133210

360

595

795915

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply

2.30%

2.74%2.54%

1.46%

0.70%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50


Other Drivers of GrowthOther Drivers of Growth

Human Capital⎯ Government Expenditure in Education ⎯ Private Expenditure in Education ⎯ Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure⎯ (Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county)

R&D⎯ Government/ Private Expenditure⎯ Knowledge Flows

Technology⎯ Backbones (infrastructures)⎯ Learning, transfers, deployment

Saving/ Investments⎯ Social Security⎯ Lifestyles, Behaviors

Governance⎯ Institutions⎯ Laws⎯ Policies

Savings Rate

20.6022.80

24.60

31.5033.00

30.00

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

4035.00

26.00

??


IndiaIndia’’s Economic Growth: GDP Projectionss Economic Growth: GDP Projections

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 2105

Bas

e Ye

ar 2

005=

1

Medium

Low

CAGR 2005-50

A - 8.69%B - 7.85%C - 6.88%D - 5.95%

CAGR 2050-100

A - 5.41%B - 5.67%C - 5.69%D - 5.29%

High

Very High


Perc

enta

ge o

f Prim

ary

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1952 1960 1970 1980 1990

TraditionalBiomass

Nuclear

How to transit to Modern Biomass?

Food Security?

Fuel Supply?Waste disposal?

Safety?

En. Security: +Ve

Changing Structure of Energy UseChanging Structure of Energy Use

2001

Hydro

Coal

Oil

Gas

Domestic Resource: +ve

Direct Employment: +ve

Energy Security: -ve

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Geopolitical Risk: High

Foreign Exchange: -ve

Regional water disputes?

Indirect Benefits


Electricity

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Trill

ion

Kw

h/yr

Wind; Solar; Hydro; Other renewable

Nuclear

Biomass

Natural Gas

Coal

Oil


Primary Energy

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

EJ/y

r

RenewablesNuclearHydroGasCoalOil


Carbon Emission (by Fuel)

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GtC

/yr

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil


Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development:

An Analysis for India


LCS is a “Development Pathway” which:

a. facilitates achievement of the national socio-economic objectives and targets,

b. while contributing to the achievement of global objectives and targets for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,

c. in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.

Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?


Low Carbon Society (LCS) ScenarioLow Carbon Society (LCS) Scenario

Drivers of India’s LCS Scenario (550 ppmv equivalent)

Carbon Emission Target (70% reduction over Base Case in 2050)

Energy Device Efficiency Targets (Demand/ Supply-side)

Dematerialization ⎯ Building Materials and Design⎯ Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials

Infrastructure investments⎯ Avoid lock-ins⎯ Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split)

R&D and Technology Transfer⎯ Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier)⎯ Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier)

Planning & Governance⎯ Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors⎯ Institutions, Laws, Policies


Key areas for interventions:

DemographicsLower Population Growth (e.g. investment in women’s education)Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education)

ConservationEfficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization

City PlanningArchitecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport

Infrastructure choices

R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push

Incentives for environmental industry

Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior

Low Carbon Society: Scenario Development for IndiaLow Carbon Society: Scenario Development for India


How sustainable development policies influence LCS? How sustainable development policies influence LCS?

E.g. Education, Employment and Productivity nexus

Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private) investments in education Increases supply of education services

Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward sections enhances demand for education

Women’s education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases)

The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades

Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism

(Likewise for other drivers, the sustainability scenario story differ)


Specifics of the roadmap would differ across countries. What is important is to communicate transparently the qualitative story and its quantification (i.e. modeling)

Low Carbon Society RoadmapLow Carbon Society Roadmap

Low Carbon Society

Innovations (APEIS/SDB)

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change

Objectives and Targets


Carbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for IndiaCarbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for India

Mitigation

India’s Cumulative Carbon Emission from 2000-2050

Billion Ton of CO2

Reference Scenario: 127.2

LCS Scenario: 64.3

Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9

% Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5%

% Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%


Mitigation in LCS Scenario for IndiaMitigation in LCS Scenario for India

Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency)

Buildings (Materials/Design)

Transport (Modal shift)

Material substitutions

Renewable Energy

Reduced ConsumptionRecycling

745

384

328

274207

90

102

265

Device Efficiency

2840Total CO2 Mitigation

Mitigation in LCS(in 2050)

173

272Urban Planning

Transport Infrastructure

20502000 2006

1284

Mill

ion

Ton

of C

O2

1032

4057

2050 LCS Emission: 1217(70% Mitigation target in 2050)

2050 Base Scenario


Mitigation through Mitigation through ““dematerializationdematerialization”” in LCS Scenarioin LCS Scenario

• Dematerialization in LCS vis-à-vis Base Scenario is contributed by multiple direct and indirect policies, most of which belong to the policy packages relating to “sustainable development”.

• Change in building materials and design contribute significantly to dematerialization and energy efficiency in construction

• In addition, three other key contributors to mitigation through dematerialization are:

Mitigation (MT CO2) in 2050

Material Substitutions 207

Reduced Consumption 173

Recycling 90

• Energy and carbon intensive materials - of which the substitutions and reduced consumption contribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario -are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper.

• Recycling reduces the energy and carbon intensity of the materials, besides delivering environmental co-benefits.

Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS

Cement

Fertilizer Paper

Steel

Base

LCS

Base

LCS

Base

LCS

Base

LCS


SOSO22 Mitigation CoMitigation Co--benefits of LCS Scenario benefits of LCS Scenario

LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO2 in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO2 Emissions Reduction equivalent to $11.2 billion over period 2006-2050

SO2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario

Little carbon mitigationSO2 mitigation alone in Reference Scenario

Co-benefits Mitigation Regime

Joint Mitigation (Period 2007-2050)


Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths


Indian Carbon Emissions ScenariosIndian Carbon Emissions Scenarios

Fragmented

IA1

Market Efficiency

IA2

Hybrid Economy(Reference)

IB1

Sustainable Development

IB2

Self RelianceClosed Economy

Cen

tral

izat

ion

De c

ent r

aliz

atio

n

Market integration

Gov

erna

nce

Integrated

2002000

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2020 2060 2100

CO

2E

mis

sion

s (M

T)

1800

2040 2080

IA2: Reference Scenario

IB1: LCS Scenario

IA1: Market Efficiency

Carbon Emissions

India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century (Billion Ton CO2)

Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363

Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2)

Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

Indian Emissions Scenarios


Renewable Energy Technologies

Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: LongTechnologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long--termterm

IA1T

IA2

IB2

IB1

21007502000

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

5250

6000

2020 2060

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (M

illio

n T

on)

6750

2040 2080

IA1

Frozen Technology

High share of renewable Energy

Lifestyle changes, Eco-friendly choices

Sustainable habitats, Public amenities

Dematerialization, material substitutions

Substitution of transport by IT

Conventional Technology Paths Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear fission

Energy efficient appliances/ infrastrucutre

CO2 Capture/ Storage, pipeline networks

Fuel cell vehicle: Carbon-free hydrogen

Nuclear Fusion, Backstops

Advanced materials, Nanotechnology

Information highways, High speed trains


Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization

India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century (Billion Ton CO2)

Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363

Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2)

Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)

550 PPMV Global Regime (LCS India) : 140 (39% IA2)

2000

1

2

3

4

5

6

2020 2060 2100

CO

2E

mis

sion

s (B

illio

n T

on)

7

2040 2080

550 ppmv (LCS)

IA2

IB1

IA1

Carbon Emissions for Indian Scenarios


Stabilization to 2Stabilization to 2O O C from LCS Scenario C from LCS Scenario

20502000 2006

1284

Mill

ion

Ton

of C

O2

1032

4057 2050 Base Scenario

LCS Emission: 1217

20 C Stabilization: 1069

Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency)

Buildings (Materials/Design)

Transport (Modal shift)

Material substitutions

Renewable Energy

Reduced ConsumptionRecycling

745

384

328

274207

90

102

265

Device Efficiency

2988Total CO2 Mitigation

Mitigation in LCS(in 2050)

173

272Urban Planning

Transport Infrastructure148CCS


ConclusionsConclusions

High Growth Asian Developing Economies require sophisticated representation of drivers in New Scenarios

Base Case Projections for India will require significant mitigation even in low growth scenarios

Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenario assuming technology/institutional innovations and win-win (co-benefit) opportunities can deliver substantial low cost mitigation

Even low emissions scenarios (including LCS scenario) would require exclusive carbon mitigation interventions for stabilization (e.g. 2O C or 450 ppmv)

Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India

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