Mikiko Kainuma and Toshihiko MasuiNational Institute for Environmental Studies

GTSP Technical ReviewPacific Northwest National laboratory

Washington, May 23, 2007

Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in Japan

http://2050.nies.go.jp, http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

2020 20502000

Long-term target year

Release of A

IM result

Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

developmentRequiredPolicy

intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

Envi

ronm

enta

l pre

ssur

e

Checkingyear(2015)

Checkingyear(2025)

Requ

ired

int

erve

ntion

3. We need“Trend Breaks”

to realize visions2. We need

“Visions”

1.Target may be tough

50% reductionsIn the world

Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative world

A Low-Carbon project

70% reductionsIn Japan

Depicting socio-

economic visions in 2050

Estimating energy service

demands

Exploring innovations for energy demands

and energy supplies

Quantifying energy

demand and supplyto estimate

CO2emissions

Checking potentials for energy

supply

Achieving energy-related CO2

emissions target

Step4

Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)

Step1

Step2

Step3

Step5

AIM, NIES

Social and Cultural ValuesComfortable and Convenient

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Decentralized/CommunityUrban/Personal

Slow, Natural-orientedVivid, Technology-driven

Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”Vision A “Doraemon”

Two different visions for societies in 2050 in Japan

Akemi Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.

©藤子プロ･小学館

©STUDIO GHIBLI

AIM, NIES

Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in Japan

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-

女（千人） 男（千人）Female (thousand) male (thousand)year 2000 2050

A BPopulation (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 38 35.8

2.71 2.19 2.38Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1

year 2000 2050A B

126.9 94.5 100.317.4 38 35.8

Average member of household 2.71 2.19 2.3827.6 42.6 35.1

Demographic Transitions in Japan: Age/Gender ProfileDemographic Transitions in Japan: Age/Gender Profile

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-

女（千人） 男（千人）

A 男B 男

A 女

B 女

male

female

age age

Female (thousand) male (thousand)

AIM, NIES

Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in JapanDemographic Transitions in Japan: household ProfileDemographic Transitions in Japan: household Profile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

世帯数（百万世帯）

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

世帯数（百万世帯） その他

ひとり親と子

夫婦のみ

夫婦と子

単独

others

Single-parent and children

Parent and children

Couple without children

Single

The

num

ber o

f hou

seho

ld (t

hous

and)

The

num

ber o

f hou

seho

ld (t

hous

and)

Scenario A Scenario B

AIM, NIES

Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in Japan

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050year

tril.

yen

at 2

000

pric

e

Scenario A Scenario B

Annual GDP growth rate- Scenario A: approximately 2% of GDP per capita- Scenario B: Approximately 1% of GDP per capita

GDP projection

In scenario A, the production of primary industries and secondary industries will increase. Nevertheless, it is estimated that 20% of energy savings can be achieved through reduced output of energy-incentive raw materials and energy efficiency improvements. In scenario B, it is estimated that further 40% of energy reduction is possible by industrial transformations and energy efficiency improvement.

AIM, NIES

Population and GDP in JapanPopulation and GDP in JapanSector-wise productions in 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Agric

ultur

eFo

restr

yFis

hing

Coal

minin

gCr

ude o

il & N

G mi

ning

Othe

r mini

ngFo

od pr

oduc

ts &

beve

rage

sTe

xtiles

Pulp,

pape

r & pa

per p

rodu

ctsPu

blish

ing &

print

ingCh

emica

l mate

rials

Chem

ical p

rodu

ctsPe

troleu

m pr

oduc

tsCo

al pr

oduc

tsNo

n-me

tallic

mine

ral

Pig i

ron &

crud

e stee

lOt

her s

teel p

rodu

ctsNo

n-fer

rous

meta

lFa

brica

ted m

etal p

rodu

ctsMa

chine

ryEl

ec.m

achin

e, eq

uip. &

supp

lies

Tran

spor

t equ

ipmen

tPr

ecisi

on in

strum

ents

Othe

r man

ufactu

ring

Cons

tructi

onTh

erma

l pow

er pl

ant

Non-

therm

al po

wer p

lant

Town

gas

Wate

r sup

plyW

holes

ale &

retai

l trad

eFin

ance

& in

sura

nce

Real

estat

eRa

ilway

tran

spor

tRo

ad tr

ansp

ort

Wate

r tra

nspo

rtAi

r tra

nspo

rtOt

her t

rans

port

Comm

unica

tions

Publi

c ser

vice a

ctivit

iesOt

her s

ervic

e acti

vities

<Sectors>

Tri.

yen

at 2

000

pric

e

2000 2050 A 2050 B

The industrial structure would shift towards service economy. Productions of electric/transport machinery industries would also increase enhancing industrial competitiveness of manufacturing sectors. Social infrastructure would be further developed and the volumes of steel or cement stocked in such infrastructures would increase considerably. An innovative recycling technology would be developed and the stocked materials within the society could be re-used for high-quality purposes. Application of such technologies would lead to improvements in resource usage rates of raw materials.

AIM, NIES

Primary Energy Use in JapanPrimary Energy Use in Japan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

ref_A ref_B

Year

Mto

e

coal oil gas hydro nuclear others

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

red_A red_B

Year

Mto

e

coal oil gas hydro nuclear others

Reference scenarios

Reduction scenarios

AIM, NIES

Electricity Generation in JapanElectricity Generation in Japan

020406080

100120

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

refA refB

Year

Mto

e

coal oil gas hydro nuclear others

020406080

100120

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

redA redB

Year

Mto

e

coal oil gas hydro nuclear others

AIM, NIES

Technology Development and Diffusion in JapanTechnology Development and Diffusion in Japan

: New technology

Technologies in power sector in 2050

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000 andreference

red_A

red_BConventional CoalIGCCIGCC with CCSOILConventional GasACCACC with CCSNuclearHydroHydro (pumped)GEOBMSWind

Advanced combined cycle

AIM, NIES

Technology Development and Diffusion in JapanTechnology Development and Diffusion in Japan

0 5 10 15 20

high eff icient sintering furnacehigh eff icient revolving furnace

high eff icient electric furnacehigh eff icient process in cement

high eff icient clinker coolerFluidized catalytic cracking of

high eff icient boiler (coal)high eff icient boiler (oil)

high eff icient boiler (gas)high eff icient industrial furnace

high eff icient industrial furnace (oil)high eff icient industrial furnace

high eff icient mortorfuel conversion (oil to gas)

fuel conversion (coal to gas)fuel conversion (gas to biomass)

PVbio fuel (residential)

bio fuel (commercial)bio fuel (transportation)

eff icinet insulation houseefficinet insulation building

hybrid vehicle

MtC

redA redB

Demand side CO2 reduction by advanced technologies in 2050

PV: one million kW in scenario A; two million kW in scenario B

AIM, NIES

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Mill

ion

hous

es

1999 standard

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

1999 standard

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

Projection of residential building stock by insulation levelProjection of residential building stock by insulation level

Projection based on present policy

Projection based on enhanced policy

Residential sector CO2 reduction potential: 50%

17

10

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

Ene

rgy

dem

ands

(Mto

e)

Change of numbers ofhouseholdsIncrease of servicedemand per householdDecrease of servicedemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity

H2

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Energy demands in2000

Hi-Insulated housing

Energy Effiency

Social Innovations

TechnologicalInnovations

Step4

AIM, NIES

70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050

CO

2 em

issi

on in

20

50

2000年

CO 2排出量

Scenario A :2050

Activity26

CO

2 em

isis

ion

in 2

000

EE79

CI27

CI77

SD2 9

CCS39

（MtC)

209

19

30510

30

13

77

39

Energy Intensity Imp.Carbon Intensity Imp.

Reduction of service demands

• Efficient air conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting system

-

• Fuel cell system• Photovoltaic on the roof

• High economic growth• Decrease of population and number of

households• Energy efficient improvement of

furnace and motor etc.• Fuel switching from coal/oil to

natural gas

• High insulation dwelling and building• Home/Building energy management system

• Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function

• Public transportation system• Motor-driven mobiles: Electric

battery vehicles, Fuel cell battery vehicles

• Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS• Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

• Nuclear energy• Effective use of electricity in night time

with storage• Hydrogen supply with low carbon

energy sources

Energy Intensity Imp.

Carbon Intensity Imp.

Reduction of service demands

Energy Intensity Imp.

Carbon Intensity Imp.

Carbon Intensity Imp.

CCS

Activity

[Industrial]

[Transportation]

[Energy transformation]

[Residential and commercial]

[Society]

2000年

CO 2排出量

CO

2 em

issi

on in

199

0

70%

redu

ctio

n

EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demands

Main factors to reduce CO2 emissions

Low-carbon scenario study in Japan

AIM, NIES

Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (1)Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (1)

Political leadership to achieve a low-carbon society should be a main driving force. This is coupled with energy security issues.Both supply-side and demand-side management are essential.Energy supply side constraints are limitations of available energy resources and demand-side constraints include preference of energy sources by consumers. These lead to deployment of new technologies.Energy demands in industry, transportation, household, and commercial sector in 2050 can be reduced by approximately 40-45% below the 2000 level by accelerating social technological innovations and energy technology development, as well as by developing appropriate infrastructure and by transforming the industrial structure. These can also be driven by private sectorinvestment to increase competitiveness in international markets.

AIM, NIES

Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (2)Forces Shaping Future Technology Deployment (2)

Passenger transport demand reduces due to several factors which include decrease in population, reduction in average trip distance via development of “compact city” aimed at secure and safe society, and promotion of public transportation. More efficient vehicles, such as hybrid vehicles or electric motor vehicles and vehicles with lower carbon intensity fuels will be developed and deployed to support high-quality lifestyle.The current average lifetime of dwellings in Japan is around 35 years and most existing dwellings will be rebuilt by 2050. It means that there are many chances to shift to highly-insulated dwellings equipped with new energy-saving appliances.In order to achieve a low-carbon society without missing opportunities for various investments on capital formation and technology development, it is necessary to set up the national goals (i.e. the vision of a low-carbon society) at an early stage, establish the abatement schemes, and realize a society that internalizes the negative externalities of carbon dioxide emissions. In this process, it stimulates and accelerated social and technological innovations that help in getting an advantage in international competition in the future low-carbon world.

Thank you!Thank you!

http://2050.nies.go.jp,

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/

Please visit our web sites for more information!

Watersupply &demand

：Model

：Output of model

Macroeconomic

Activity

Populationand

householdmodel

Energybalance

table

Popu

latio

n, L

abor

Service

Efficiency

Passenger Trns.demand model

Freight Trns.demand model

CG

E m

odel

Household Prd.& lifestyle model

Residential energyservice model

Commercial energyservice model

Industrial production model

Stock

Preference of household

Production amount

Investment

Energy snapshotTool of makingenergy balance

table：Data flow

Wat

er m

anag

emen

t mod

el

Stock

Mat

eria

l sto

ck &

flow

mod

el

Bui

ldin

g dy

nam

ics

mod

el

Energy supply & demand

Stra

tegi

c da

taba

se

Endu

sem

odel

Residentialsector

Commercialsector

Industrialsector

Transportationsector

Energy Trns.sector

GHGHealth effect

Water leakag

eWaste

GHG GHG

Water pollutant

GHGAIM

/Air

Ene

rgy

Sup

ply

mod

el

Air pollutant

Air pollutant

Air pollutant

Air pollutant

Backcasting model

GHG Waste

Air pollutant

Energy snapshottool

Endu

sem

odel

Population and household model

Mat

eria

l sto

ck

and

flow

mod

elEnergy supply

model

Stra

tegi

c da

taba

se

Enduse[Air]model

Backcast model

Wat

er m

anag

emen

t mod

el

CG

E m

odel

Building dynamics model

Transportation Demandmodel

Models for analyzing low-carbon society and sustainable development

Quantification of Scenario A and B in 2050

Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%) Average number of person per household

2.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Tril.JPY 538 1059 (197%) 693 (129%)Share of production primary % 1.8% secondary % 39.9% tertiary % 58.4%

Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 2078 (126%) 1739 (105%)Building dynamics Model &Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1297 1016 (78%) 794 (61%) Private car % 53% 27% 53% Public transport % 40% 62% 34% Walk/bycycle % 8% 8% 13%Freight transport volume bill. t・km 578 525 (91%) 458 (79%)

100 142 (142%) 113 (113%) Steel production Mil.t 107 40 (37%) 40 (37%) Etylen production Mil.t 8 4 (50%) 4 (50%) Cement production Mil.t 82 40 (49%) 40 (49%) Paper production Mil.t 32 16 (50%) 27 (85%)( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000

Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

model

Population and Householdmodel

Inter-sector and MacroEconomic Model

Transportation demandmodel & Inter-sector andMacro Economic Model

Industrial production index

1.0%32.3%66.7%

2050year unit 2000

1.4%35.4%63.3%

A B

Step2