Energy and Climate Change in Central Asia
Transcript of Energy and Climate Change in Central Asia
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Energy and ClimateChange in Central
Asia
Almaz Akhmetov
Department of RiskEngineering
Uchiyama LaboratoryUniversity of Tsukuba
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Outline
Climate Change and GlobalWarming
Climate Change and its causes in
Central Asia 3E concept of sustainable
development
Energy use, the Environment andEconomic Output interactions inCentral Asian republics
Concept of energy externalities.Ener cost with externalities:
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Climate Change andGlobal Warming
Climate change and global warming refer to anincrease in average global temperatures
Natural events and human activities contribute
to that increase. Primarily by increase ingreenhouse gases (mainly, Carbon Dioxide CO2)
A warming planet leads to a change in climate
in various ways Annually, more than 60% of global industrial
CO2 emissions originate in industrializedcountries, where only about 20% of the worlds
population lives
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In the 1880-1935 period, thetemperature anomaly was consistentlynegative
Since 1980 the anomaly has beenpositive
Climate Change andGlobal Warming
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Source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA Goddard Institutefor Space Studies, accessed January 30, 2011
Climate Change andGlobal Warming
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reghttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg -
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Climate Change andGlobal Warming
Source: NOAA Research, 2011
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Climate ChangeIndicators
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Climate Change inCentral Asia
Source: Zoi environment network, 2009
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Climate Change inCentral Asia
Source: Zoi environment network, 2009
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Climate Change inCentral Asia
Energy-related GHG emissions are thehighest in the region
Source: Zoi environment network, 2009
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Electricity Fuel MixKazakhstan
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Electricity Fuel MixKyrgyzstan
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Electricity Fuel MixTajikistan
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Electricity Fuel MixTurkmenistan
l i i l i
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Electricity Fuel MixUzbekistan
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concep osustainable
development Environmental protection, energy security andeconomic development are strongly affectedeach other
Balancing these priorities is critical to achieve asustainable development
Task: Secure the energy supply for economicdevelopment without negative impact on theenvironment
E
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Eco
nom
ies
of
C
and Economy in CentralAsia
CO i i i i
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CO2 emission intensityof GDP
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Energy intensity ofGDP
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and Economy in CentralAsia
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and Economy in CentralAsia
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and Economy in CentralAsia
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Regression analysis was used formodeling and analyzingrelationship between a dependentvariable (CO2 emissions) and
independent variables (Energyuse, GDP)
The empirical results of regression
analysis will be the long-termrelationship of the variables
The results are interpreted in
growth terms in percentage
3E Analysismethodology
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3E Analysis results
KAZAKHSTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on GHG emissionsthan economic output
1% increase in energy useincreases GHG emissions by 1.2%when GDP does not change
Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Kazakhstan
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3E Analysis results
KYRGYZSTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output
1% increase in energy useincreases CO2 emissions by 1.24%when GDP does not change
Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Kyrgyzstan
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3E Analysis results
TAJIKISTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output
1% increase in energy useincreases CO2 emissions by 1.85%when GDP does not change
Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Tajikistan
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3E Analysis results
TURKMENISTAN: Energy use hasslightly bigger impact on CO2emissions than economic output
1% increase in energy useincreases CO2 emissions by 0.8%when GDP does not change
1% growth in GDP increases CO2emissions by 0.32% when energyuse does not change
In-depth analysis required to fullyunderstand the nature of the
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3E Analysis results
UZBEKISTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output
1% increase in energy useincreases CO2 emissions by 1.01%when GDP does not change
Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Uzbekistan
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Energy externalities Conventional fossil fuel burning power plants
cause environmental problems (globalwarming, acidification, ozone layer depletion,etc.)
Human beings are exposed to climate change
directly and indirectly Human activities like energy conversion,
transport, industry, or agriculture causesubstantial environmental and human health
damages, which vary widely depending onwhere the activity takes place and on the typeof the activity
The damages caused are for the most part not
integrated into the pricing system
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Energy externalities The strategy tries to rebalance the social and
environmental dimension with the purelyeconomic one, accordingly leading to greaterenvironmental sustainability
To support this internalization, socio-
environmental damages must first be estimatedand monetized
There has been much progress in the analysis ofenvironmental damage costs, particularly
through the "ExternE" (External costs of Energy)European Research Network
Historically, these damages caused by energysystem are not included into the final cost of
energy in Central Asia
9
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externalities: Case of
wind power in
Kazakhstan
9ca
ndid
ate
sites
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Grid parity
0
0
00
00
00
KZT/kWh
Before tax LCOE Existing tariffs
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Grid parity with co-benefits
.000
.000
.0000
.0000
.0000
KZT/kWh
New LCOE with co -benefit Existing tariffs
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Conclusions
Central Asia is affected by climatechange
Energy policies addressing energyconservation should not have effect on
economic growth (apart fromTurkmenistan?)
Policies promoting renewable energy
technologies are necessary Internalization of externalities provides
the real cost of renewable energy
C t ifi i ifi