Employment Growth - University Of Illinois · Web viewMay 2004 / Dec 2014 Issue 2015.2 Bloomington...
Transcript of Employment Growth - University Of Illinois · Web viewMay 2004 / Dec 2014 Issue 2015.2 Bloomington...
Note: Values shown on the “1 Year” forecast represent a pessimistic – optimistic scenario. For estimated values please see Appendix.
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Comparing MSAs Indices with Chicago Indices
04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14 04 06 08 10 12 14
*Values below (above) zero indicate that an MSA is performing less well (better) than Chicago.
From early 2007 to early 2009, all MSAs performed better than Chicago.
However, from Mid-2009 to late-2011, MSAs generally performed less well than Chicago except for Bloomington-Normal.
After December 2012, all MSAs performed less well than Chicago.
According to the forecast for December 2015, Bloomington, Champaign-Urbana, Peoria, Rockford and Springfield are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 1
Bloomington Champaign Davenport Decatur Peoria Rockford Springfield Kankakee
ILLINOISMSA Indices & Forecast
Release2/15/2015
dataMay 2004 / Dec 2014
Issue2015.2 www.real.illinois.edu
Bloomington-Normal (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 87.52
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 89.52 93.01 103.54
Forecast 85.54 81.52 66.00 ~ 78.76
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Bloomington - Normal MSA
B-N
Chicago
Other MSAs
Bloomington-Normal MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate:
Compared to last month, Bloomington-Normal moved up 2 positions reaching the 8th place of the rank.
In the 12 month growth league table Bloomington-Normal moved up 1 position reaching the 9th place of the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 2
Champaign-Urbana (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 99.47
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 99.59 99.77 94.50
Forecast 99.46 99.81 89.33 ~ 113.56
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70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Champaign - Urbana MSA
C-U
Chicago
Other MSAs
Champaign- Urbana MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate:
Compared to last month, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul moved up 7 positions reaching the 1st place of the rank.
In the 12-month growth league table, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the 1st place of the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 99.56
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 101.80 105.60 93.88
Forecast 102.69 107.71 104.73 ~ 128.74
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Davenport - Rock Island - Moline MSA
D-RI-M
Chicago
Other MSAs
Davenport – Rock Island–Moline MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate:
Compared to last month, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline lost by moving down 3 positions reaching the 6th place in the rank.
In the 12-month growth league table, Davenport – Rock Island – Moline remained in the 8th place in the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 4
Decatur (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 105.12
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 105.55 106.01 106.29
Forecast 104.73 104.99 110.03 ~ 113.75
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80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
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10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Decatur MSA
Decatur
Chicago
Other MSAs
Decatur MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate
Compared to the previous month, Decatur remained in the 2nd place in the rank.
In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur moved up 1 position reaching the 6th place in the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 5
Kankakee - Bradley (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 102.96
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 101.37 98.36 87.40
Forecast 104.39 105.92 95.79 ~ 119.30
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
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Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
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Sep-
15
Kankakee - Bradley MSA
K - B
Chicago
Other MSAs
Kankakee - Bradley MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate
Kankakee – Bradley moved down 2 positions reaching the 9th place in the rank of the monthly growth league table.
In the 12-month growth league table, Kankakee– Bradley moved down 3 positions reaching the 7th position of the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 6
Peoria (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 94.43
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 95.00 95.61 89.77
Forecast 93.65 91.36 67.63 ~ 84.99
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70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
May
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Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
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06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
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Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
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10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Peoria MSA
Peoria
Chicago
Other MSAs
Peoria MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate
Compared to last month, Peoria moved down 1 position reaching the 10th place of the rank.
In the 12-month growth league table, Peoria moved down 3 positions reaching the 7th place of the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 7
Rockford (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 101.52
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 101.00 99.80 93.20
Forecast 97.93 96.13 80.77 ~ 90.69
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Rockford MSA
Rockford
Chicago
Other MSAs
Rockford MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate
Compared to last month, Rockford moved down 6 positions reaching the 7th place of the rank.
In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford moved up 1 position reaching the 3rd place of the rank.
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 8
Springfield (Reference Month – December 2014)
Current 92.55
1 Month 3 Month 1 Year
Historical 94.99 98.73 91.11
Forecast 90.48 88.70 90.26 ~ 102.51
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70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
May
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Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13Ja
n-14
May
-14
Sep-
14Ja
n-15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Springfield MSA
Springfield
Chicago
Other MSAs
Springfield MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate
Compared to last month, Springfield moved down 1 position reaching the 5th place of the rank.
In the 12-month growth league table, Springfield moved up 1 position reaching the 4th place of the rank.
Notes:MSA Indices series are available in the appendix
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 9
Appendix
B-N C-U D-RI-M Decatur Peoria Rockford Springfield K-B
May-04 83.25 105.54 99.03 93.52 95.17 101.31 85.61 97.54
Jun-04 85.08 101.20 97.99 102.62 92.64 102.50 88.56 102.17Jul-04 85.10 101.27 98.48 99.42 93.21 103.15 89.23 101.65
Aug-04 85.19 101.21 99.02 96.44 93.77 103.68 90.00 101.21Sep-04 85.48 101.11 99.77 93.89 94.36 104.02 91.13 100.93Oct-04 86.16 101.52 100.83 91.89 94.93 104.20 92.54 100.97Nov-04 87.42 102.31 102.10 90.50 95.53 104.31 93.80 101.45Dec-04 89.08 103.13 103.48 89.79 96.44 104.48 94.52 102.22Jan-05 90.65 103.58 104.71 89.49 97.89 104.76 94.48 103.01Feb-05 91.62 103.64 105.62 89.31 99.80 105.15 94.03 103.76Mar-05 91.42 103.68 106.34 89.11 101.63 105.69 93.71 104.48Apr-05 89.99 103.78 107.04 88.83 103.05 106.29 93.79 105.21May-
05 88.07 103.82 107.67 88.32 103.89 106.89 94.19 105.87
Jun-05 86.41 103.81 108.21 87.58 104.29 107.39 94.67 106.39Jul-05 85.05 103.62 108.73 86.47 104.46 107.73 95.14 106.69
Aug-05 83.89 103.18 109.16 84.97 104.64 107.94 95.53 106.92Sep-05 83.21 102.67 109.42 83.32 104.93 108.09 95.98 107.31Oct-05 83.21 102.66 109.45 82.00 105.29 108.27 96.42 108.00Nov-05 83.95 103.13 109.38 81.30 105.79 108.56 96.77 109.10Dec-05 85.32 103.83 109.42 81.08 106.46 109.02 97.10 110.63Jan-06 87.02 104.74 109.65 81.05 107.29 109.68 97.41 112.32Feb-06 88.63 105.81 110.02 81.06 108.16 110.43 97.64 113.40Mar-06 89.61 106.68 110.41 81.48 108.79 111.26 97.90 113.53Apr-06 89.77 107.12 110.73 82.47 109.14 112.06 98.16 112.96May-
06 89.57 107.31 111.02 83.79 109.44 112.79 98.20 112.10
Jun-06 89.33 107.53 111.26 85.13 109.84 113.42 98.11 111.41Jul-06 89.10 107.76 111.24 86.11 110.31 113.86 98.10 111.04
Aug-06 88.99 108.02 111.22 86.56 111.07 114.19 98.33 110.99Sep-06 89.11 108.42 111.69 86.53 112.24 114.53 98.86 111.26Oct-06 89.41 109.08 112.76 86.22 113.66 114.95 99.62 111.81Nov-06 89.79 109.89 114.10 85.93 115.28 115.50 100.48 112.69Dec-06 90.21 110.62 114.89 85.90 116.99 116.20 101.37 114.01Jan-07 90.64 111.16 114.82 86.18 118.48 117.00 102.24 115.58Feb-07 91.12 111.70 114.38 86.76 119.30 117.76 103.02 116.91Mar-07 91.54 112.24 113.91 87.50 119.62 118.44 103.75 117.75Apr-07 91.79 112.77 113.61 88.29 119.61 118.99 104.67 118.09May-
07 92.03 113.30 113.67 89.14 119.47 119.38 105.81 118.08
Jun-07 92.46 113.84 114.05 90.17 119.22 119.51 107.14 117.80Jul-07 93.41 114.14 114.50 91.32 118.83 119.36 108.63 117.14
Aug-07 95.01 114.38 114.88 92.44 118.38 118.99 110.40 116.08
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 10
Sep-07 97.10 114.69 114.88 93.42 118.05 118.47 112.19 114.94Oct-07 99.53 115.25 114.60 94.32 118.05 117.81 113.77 114.14Nov-07 102.12 116.21 114.52 95.07 118.42 117.10 115.17 113.78Dec-07 104.47 117.38 114.77 95.64 118.98 116.36 116.64 113.59Jan-08 106.06 118.60 115.13 96.07 119.51 115.58 118.08 113.45Feb-08 106.68 119.59 115.25 96.58 119.66 114.80 119.31 113.70Mar-08 106.48 120.11 115.08 97.23 119.17 114.07 120.40 114.11Apr-08 105.76 120.45 114.72 98.12 118.22 113.28 121.22 114.17May-
08 104.86 120.93 114.42 99.21 117.10 112.31 121.50 113.95
Jun-08 103.99 121.51 114.12 100.49 115.91 111.24 121.31 113.59Jul-08 103.03 122.20 113.72 101.90 114.86 110.13 120.80 113.07
Aug-08 102.03 122.71 113.14 103.34 114.06 108.99 120.27 112.35Sep-08 101.37 122.46 112.21 104.80 113.33 107.68 119.94 111.46Oct-08 101.39 121.08 110.90 106.28 112.38 106.09 119.72 110.34Nov-08 102.14 118.72 109.22 107.64 110.86 104.18 119.53 108.73Dec-08 103.44 115.69 107.26 108.87 108.64 101.95 119.30 106.51Jan-09 105.22 112.13 104.93 110.03 105.69 99.45 118.98 104.03Feb-09 107.35 108.19 102.20 111.15 102.26 96.88 118.53 101.94Mar-09 109.58 104.09 99.23 111.55 98.66 94.47 117.71 100.57Apr-09 111.63 100.23 96.42 110.94 95.39 92.40 116.42 99.87May-
09 113.44 97.05 94.01 109.94 92.90 90.76 114.97 99.64
Jun-09 115.10 94.62 91.88 108.91 91.12 89.62 113.45 99.52Jul-09 116.64 92.92 90.14 108.09 89.91 89.01 111.96 99.30
Aug-09 117.82 91.88 88.88 107.75 89.14 88.83 110.72 98.94Sep-09 118.41 91.27 88.11 107.87 88.67 88.89 110.08 98.45Oct-09 118.36 90.87 87.68 108.27 88.37 89.02 110.14 97.91Nov-09 117.72 90.58 87.35 108.69 88.28 89.10 110.53 97.52Dec-09 116.52 90.37 87.09 109.00 88.40 89.16 110.92 97.50Jan-10 115.29 90.21 86.89 108.90 88.63 89.25 111.03 97.84Feb-10 114.45 90.23 86.74 108.09 88.93 89.46 110.90 98.39Mar-10 113.96 90.78 86.66 106.68 89.66 89.80 110.43 98.78Apr-10 113.73 91.77 86.60 104.99 90.98 90.22 109.55 98.86May-
10 113.92 92.75 86.41 103.33 92.52 90.59 108.27 98.46
Jun-10 114.41 93.38 86.15 102.11 94.00 90.88 106.84 97.50Jul-10 114.88 93.73 85.98 101.52 95.06 91.08 105.48 96.38
Aug-10 114.97 93.67 85.94 101.37 95.56 91.23 104.57 95.29Sep-10 114.36 93.18 85.93 101.47 95.73 91.38 104.04 94.27Oct-10 112.99 92.27 85.94 101.65 95.80 91.56 103.41 93.39Nov-10 111.05 90.93 85.89 101.68 95.53 91.77 102.30 92.46Dec-10 108.91 89.29 86.01 101.61 94.69 91.95 100.51 91.33Jan-11 106.80 87.74 86.40 102.06 93.31 91.97 98.45 90.08Feb-11 105.18 86.57 87.02 103.28 91.83 91.79 96.63 88.82Mar-11 105.08 85.85 87.89 104.85 90.75 91.37 95.20 87.89Apr-11 106.50 85.64 88.96 106.31 90.16 90.80 93.97 87.34May- 108.22 85.87 89.95 107.37 89.94 90.20 92.95 87.12
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 11
11Jun-11 109.47 86.37 90.63 107.87 90.11 89.66 92.11 87.30Jul-11 110.15 87.05 90.95 108.04 90.70 89.31 91.26 87.77
Aug-11 110.46 87.78 90.96 108.36 91.53 89.11 90.37 88.45Sep-11 110.53 88.50 90.79 109.05 92.24 89.05 89.64 89.29Oct-11 110.33 89.09 90.54 109.70 92.74 89.09 89.34 90.08Nov-11 109.79 89.65 90.27 110.26 93.27 89.18 89.44 90.60Dec-11 108.86 90.41 90.11 110.62 94.12 89.32 89.67 90.88Jan-12 107.64 91.41 90.27 110.72 95.36 89.56 89.87 91.18Feb-12 106.51 92.16 90.92 110.51 96.86 89.94 90.10 91.47Mar-12 105.74 92.45 91.89 110.01 98.25 90.35 90.25 91.48Apr-12 105.62 92.21 92.81 109.77 99.27 90.75 90.38 91.09May-
12 105.89 91.60 93.47 110.01 99.70 91.06 90.64 90.38
Jun-12 106.20 90.85 93.92 110.34 99.77 91.27 91.14 89.51Jul-12 106.48 90.17 94.17 110.59 99.66 91.33 91.81 88.72
Aug-12 106.65 89.73 94.24 110.64 99.25 91.29 92.31 88.04Sep-12 106.43 89.78 94.21 110.34 98.45 91.26 92.21 87.38Oct-12 105.86 90.18 94.13 109.76 97.32 91.32 91.60 86.68Nov-12 105.19 90.75 94.04 108.92 95.88 91.50 90.91 86.13Dec-12 104.58 91.33 94.06 107.92 94.21 91.83 90.43 85.74Jan-13 104.10 91.86 94.26 106.81 92.59 92.29 90.36 85.50Feb-13 103.63 92.55 94.46 105.97 91.36 92.74 90.38 85.51Mar-13 103.37 93.40 94.42 105.72 90.57 93.01 90.39 85.84Apr-13 103.43 94.11 94.16 105.88 90.05 93.11 90.63 86.51May-
13 103.54 94.50 93.88 106.29 89.77 93.20 91.11 87.40
Jun-13 103.37 94.47 93.80 106.70 89.72 93.32 91.56 88.41Jul-13 102.97 94.22 93.94 107.08 89.69 93.49 91.79 89.48
Aug-13 102.48 93.87 94.17 107.65 89.52 93.65 91.40 90.53Sep-13 101.83 93.51 94.48 108.41 89.28 93.79 90.28 91.32Oct-13 100.82 93.10 94.82 109.13 89.10 93.94 88.84 91.67Nov-13 99.35 92.85 95.23 109.77 89.14 94.15 87.65 91.65Dec-13 97.87 93.04 95.70 110.29 89.42 94.35 87.12 91.41Jan-14 96.77 93.74 96.38 110.46 90.01 94.52 87.58 91.00Feb-14 96.08 94.80 97.45 110.13 90.92 94.74 88.84 90.46Mar-14 95.73 95.94 98.93 109.66 92.14 95.06 90.54 90.24Apr-14 95.65 97.08 100.50 109.01 93.44 95.57 92.33 90.68May-
14 95.64 98.04 101.98 108.07 94.57 96.31 94.17 91.74
Jun-14 95.43 98.78 103.46 107.14 95.27 97.20 96.08 93.25Jul-14 94.93 99.27 104.91 106.49 95.62 98.15 97.85 94.99
Aug-14 94.15 99.59 105.92 106.11 95.72 99.03 98.92 96.77Sep-14 93.01 99.77 105.60 106.01 95.61 99.80 98.73 98.36Oct-14 91.42 99.73 103.99 105.89 95.43 100.45 97.24 99.83Nov-14 89.52 99.59 101.80 105.55 95.00 101.00 94.99 101.37Dec-14 87.52 99.47 99.56 105.12 94.43 101.52 92.55 102.96Jan-15 85.54 99.46 102.69 104.73 93.65 97.93 90.48 104.39
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 12
Feb-15 83.55 99.58 105.08 104.68 92.62 97.16 89.15 105.40Mar-15 81.52 99.81 107.71 104.99 91.36 96.13 88.70 105.92Apr-15 79.50 100.13 110.44 105.58 89.90 94.80 89.11 106.08May-
15 77.60 100.49 112.92 106.36 88.22 93.23 90.20 106.14
Jun-15 75.93 100.82 114.73 107.28 86.29 91.50 91.68 106.27July-15 74.58 101.08 115.68 108.33 84.09 89.74 93.26 106.49Aug-15 73.55 101.16 115.95 109.52 81.60 88.08 94.65 106.73Sep-15 72.76 101.04 115.95 110.75 78.83 86.67 95.67 106.89Oct-15 72.10 100.72 116.12 111.87 75.82 85.59 96.19 106.90Nov-15 71.44 100.24 116.66 112.71 72.61 84.91 96.21 106.80Dec-15 70.65 99.71 117.48 113.13 69.25 84.68 95.77 106.65
NotesB-N=Bloomington-NormalC-U=Champaign-UrbanaK-B= Kankakee-BradleyD-RI-M=Davenport-Rock Island-Moline
Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 2/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 13