Empirical Treasure, Lost and Found · 2014-02-13 · Empirical Treasure, Lost and Found Linda S....
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Empirical Treasure, Lost and Found
Linda S. GottfredsonUniversity of Delaware, USA
International Society for Intelligence ResearchMelbourne, Australia December 12, 2013
12/12/2013 1
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Imagine
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Miraculous?
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“If all 13‐year‐olds took the same 15‐minute test (WASI), I could give you each child’s odds for all these adult outcomes without knowing anything else about them.”
– Drops out of high school, – Holds mostly unskilled jobs, skilled jobs vs. professional jobs– Performs those jobs well– Lives in povertyAND– Can find a particular intersection on a map, or grams of carbohydrate per serving on a food label– Adheres to a medical treatment regimen for diabetes or other chronic illness– Dies prematurely
…that someone told you this.
Would you bet against this odds‐maker? Don’t!
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Actual landscape of odds, by outcome and IQ*
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High school dropout
Lives in povertyUses food stampsWorks as professional/managerEmployed fulltime
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
LowBelow
Average Above HighAbility level
Outcomes
Odds(yes/no)
* Source of data: Gottfredson, 1997, p.118 (young adults) and p.116 (all adults)
50:50
Sample
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Now imagine
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…that this person also claims that:
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“With just one more piece of information, I can tell you how to improve the worst odds—without changing IQ and without leveling social resources.
AND
It would save thousands if not millions of lives, and millions if not billions of health care dollars.”
Miraculous? Credible??Yes, and g is the key!
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Lost treasure of g—a personal accountChronology
Today—g 30 years after rediscovery Yesterday—Dark Ages before rediscovery Tomorrow—Vast opportunities ahead
Unexpected lessons Complexity of everyday life Power of “inconsequential” effects
A story to remember12/12/2013 7
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g: 30 Years of Discovery
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 9
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 10
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 11
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 12
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 13
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 14
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 15
Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
gg rediscovered
(See notes for slide)
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
gg rediscovered
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 18
Traits
gg rediscovered
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 19
Traits
gg rediscovered
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
12/12/2013 20
Traits
gg rediscovered
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
gg rediscovered
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
gg rediscovered
Nomological network
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Human variation in g: Extraordinary phenomenon
• Recurring • Species‐wide• General‐use capacity• Shapes human institutions• Drives its own evolution
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g
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Dark Ages Before Rediscovery
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Life outcomes
Evolution
Genes
Brain
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g lost by 1970s
Performance
Social structure
Traits
IQ
XX
X
when I entered grad school
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My 30 years, pre‐PhD
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ThemesExplore, collect & classify Chase puzzles Feet on the ground Man from Mars
Penang Malaysia
1947 1977
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Life outcomes
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Social structure
Social inequality
1970s
Sociology• Difference=
inequality• Inequality is
neither natural nor moral
Social class hierarchy
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Social inequality
1970s
Social privilege is…
…socially reproduced
Social class hierarchy
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Social inequality
Performance
1970s
Social privilege is…
…socially reproduced
…socially inherited
Social class hierarchy
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1970s
Social privilege is…
Performance
…socially reproduced
…socially inherited
Manufactured differences
IQaspirations
…disguised as “merit”
Social class hierarchy
Social inequality
“everyone can do any job”
“doctors should work up from orderly”
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Sound eerily familiar?In USA: • Law—“No Child Left Behind” • Too‐good‐to‐be‐true science—“several weeks of N‐back training raised intelligence”
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Needed: Shift in Focus
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Knowing g by what brings it forth—task complexity
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My alternative explanation:*Higher intelligence has functional value
Required me to study attributes of jobs and tasks, not just people.
Specifically‐‐What in a job requires the exercise of g?
What makes some more “g loaded” than others?
12/12/2013 33*Alternative to social privilege theory
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Key finding #1: Occupational hierarchy is cognitive
• Same worldwide• Mean worker IQs track jobs’ cognitive complexity • Job complexity hierarchy evolved as work tasks
clustered (into occupations) by g loading to fit human variation in g
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Correlation with factor
Learn and recall relevant information Reason and make judgments Deal with unexpected situations Identify problem situations quickly React swiftly when unexpected
problems occur Apply common sense to solve problems Learn new procedures quickly Be alert & quick to understand things
*Job analysis by Arvey (1986)
.75
.71
.69
.69
.67
.66
.66
.55
Key finding #2: “Judgment & Reasoning Factor” among jobs* Complexity factor among jobs is mirror image of g factor among people
Workers must:
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Life outcomes
Social structure
Traits
Performance
Tasks
g
+
So, g loading is the flip side of g
g loadings
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Key finding #3: The Complexity Dynamic
• Tasks that are more complex– put a bigger premium on learning‐reasoning
ability– lead to bigger differences in task performance
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Gaps
Gains
AA B
B
A BMore complex
task
Performance level
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But how could a general intelligence ever evolve?
What adaptive challenges could possibly have been so general, so non‐specific, to evolve such a content‐free, domain‐general ability??
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Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Performance
Traits
g
Tasks
Key finding #4: Power of cumulating
“inconsequential” effects
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
g
Task complexity
Key finding #5: Life’s complexity turns
the wheel of g
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Complexity of everyday life, today
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Typical life outcomes along IQ continuum
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High school dropout
Lives in povertyUses food stampsWorks as professional/managerEmployed fulltime
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
LowBelow
Average Above HighAbility level
Outcomes
Odds(yes/no)
* Source of data: Gottfredson, 1997, p.118 (young adults) and p.116 (all adults)
50:50
Sample
Landscape of cognitive error on everyday tasks*
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Examples of everyday tasks*
*Items on 1993 National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS)
Level 1Level 2
Level 3Level 4
Level 5Your child is 11 years old and weighs 85 pounds. How many 80 mg tablets can you give in 24‐hr period?
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Column1 1200 20
0
20
40
60
80
100
3
121
54
Ability level
Error rate (%)
2 3 4 5
Landscape of cognitive error on everyday tasks*
*Source of data: National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS), ages 16‐65., Kirsch et al. (1993)12/12/2013 45
Difficulty level (sample literacy tasks)
Interpret brief phrase in long articleCalculate discount on bill paid early
Write letter explaining error in billTotal the costs on order form
Find meeting time on form
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Column1 1200 20
1
35 (highest)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Taskcomplexity
3
121
54
Ability level
Error rate (%)
2 3 4 5
Cognitive riskCognitive risk
Cognitive burden
Cognitive resources
23% 28% 31% 15% 3%% of adults:
*Source of data: National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS), ages 16‐65., Kirsch et al. (1993)12/12/2013 46
47% 33% 16% 4% ~0%% of adults ages 60+:
Landscape of cognitive error on everyday tasks*
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Opportunities—An Example
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Current (g‐blind) “solutions” to challenges in health care
• Political: race‐class disparities in health– Equalize access to care [it actually increases disparities]– Teach health providers to be more culturally sensitive – Redistribute wealth to keep social disadvantage from “getting under the skin”
• Practical: patient non‐adherence to treatment– Give patients more information
“Déjà vu all over again”12/12/2013 48
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Current projectIncrease cognitive accessibility of DSM*
• Analyze the “job” of diabetes• Focus on most critical tasks• Target instruction to ability level• Feedback & follow‐up
12/12/2013 49*DSM = diabetes self‐management
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Human face of diabetes self‐management
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Job analyst’s view: The patient’s job description• Learn about diabetes in general (At “entry’)
– Physiological process– Interdependence of diet, exercise, meds– Symptoms & corrective action– Consequences of poor control
• Apply knowledge to own case (Daily, Hourly)– Implement appropriate regimen – Continuously monitor physical signs – Diagnose problems in timely manner– Adjust food, exercise, meds in timely and appropriate manner
• Coordinate with relevant parties (Frequently)– Negotiate changes in activities with family, friends, job – Enlist/capitalize on social support– Communicate status and needs to practitioners
• Update knowledge & adjust regimen (Occasionally)– When other chronic conditions or disabilities develop– When new treatments are ordered– When life circumstances change
• Conditions of work—24/7, no days off, no retirement
Self‐management
Training
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Good performance requires good judgment
IT IS NOTmechanically following a recipe IT IS keeping a complex system under control in often unpredictable
circumstances (like accident prevention process) Coordinate a regimen having multiple interacting elements Adjust parts as needed to maintain good control of system buffeted by many other
factors Anticipate lag time between (in)action and system response Monitor advance “hidden” indicators (blood glucose) to prevent system veering badly
out of control Decide appropriate type and timing of corrective action if system veering off‐track Monitor/control other shocks to system (infection, emotional stress) Coordinate regimen with other daily activities Plan ahead (meals, meds, etc.)
For the expected For the unexpected and unpredictable
Prioritize conflicting demands on time and behavior
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Occupational hierarchy
• Cognitive complexity
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Diabetes?
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Sample guidance today
“Adjust insulin dose for number of carbohydrates in meal”
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Knowledge & mental calculations required??
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•One piece of info •Simple match•But lots of irrelevant info Caution!
Can train people to do this task, butnot all possible tasks like it
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Task #1—Underline sentence saying how often to give medicineSample health literacy item—how simple?
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Task #1—Underline sentence saying how often to give medicine
NALS levels 1 2 3 4 5LITERACY SCORES: 100 200 250 300 350 400 500
Mean = 272
•One piece of info •Simple match•But lots of irrelevant info
#1239
56
Not so simple for many people…
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Column1 1200 20
1
35 (highest)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Taskcomplexity
3
121
54
Ability level
Error rate (%)
2 3 4 5
Cognitive riskCognitive risk
Cognitive burden
Cognitive resources
23% 28% 31% 15% 3%% of adults:
*Source of data: National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS), ages 16‐65., Kirsch et al. (1993)12/12/2013 57
47% 33% 16% 4% ~0%% of adults ages 60+:
Need an epidemiology of patient error
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Column1 1200 20
1
35 (highest)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Taskcomplexity
3
121
54
Ability level
Error rate (%)
2 3 4 5
Cognitive riskCognitive risk
Cognitive burden
Cognitive resources
*Source of data: National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS), ages 16‐65., Kirsch et al. (1993)12/12/2013 58
Change the job (not person) strategies
Reduce/limitSupplement when critical tasks complex
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Stories of Synergy in Research on g
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Synergy –Interaction of parts has bigger effect than the sum of parts
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Example: 1986
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Created synergy
• Panel of illustrious authors
• Peer‐reviewed journal
• Mailed 6000 copies to top researchers
Instant impact
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“It is the position of AAIDD that intellectual functioning (as defined [by Mainstream Science on Intelligence,
1997]) is best conceptualized and captured by a general factor of intelligence, g” (p.
34).
AAIDD* Manual, 11th ed., 2010
Example: 1997
*AAIDD = Amer. Assoc. of Intellectual & Developmental Disabilities
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
g
Nomological network grows ever denser
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Performance
Life outcomes
Social structureEvolution
Genes
Brain
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Traits
g
Many others
ISIRShoulders I’ve stood on
Robert Plomin
Thomas Bouchard, Jr.
Douglas Detterman
Arthur Jensen
Richard HaierDavid Lubinski
Julian Stanley
Rosalind Arden
Lloyd Humphreys
Robert Gordon
John Carroll
Frank Schmidt
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To our young members
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Go find some good shoulders to stand on!
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Thank you.
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