Emmanuel Desurvire
Transcript of Emmanuel Desurvire
OpticalCommunicationsin 2025
II Workshop Ciência e Tecnologia emComunicações ópticas.Campinas, Brazil, November 2005
by E.Desurvire
ALCATEL
Optical communications in 2025 — 2
• Predicting long-term technology performance is a risky business !
About long-term technology predictions
“ Well-informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wiresand that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value ”– Boston Post Editorial, 1865
“ One day there will be a telephone in every major city in the USA ”– A.G.Bell, c.1880
“ I think there is a world market for as many as 5 computers ”– T.J.Watson, head of IBM,1943
“ There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.”– K.Olsen, President of Digital Equipment, 1977
“ 640K [of PC memory] ought to be enough for anybody.”– Bill Gates, 1981
Optical communications in 2025 — 3
Outline
Introduction: a connected world
Some tools to probe the future:
Market Technology> Internet traffic > capacity X distance (Moore)
> installed-fiber > fiber bandwidth
> FTTP-PON > channel capacity (Shannon)
Conclusion
Optical communications in 2025 — 4
Source: http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi1640.htm
A connected world (1/2)
NY Broadway1890
NY Broadway1910
NY Broadway2025 ?
FTTH
FTTP
GPON
BPON
last mile
VDSL
HFC
FITL
Optical communications in 2025 — 5
A connected world (2/2)
Source: Primetrica, 2004 / www.telegeography.com
• From today to 2025, the main continental traffic routes to remain unchanged
• But P2P traffic intensity to increase orders of magnitude
• Optical networks to become more geographically pervasive with proliferation of local L2-L3 DXC/OXC/IProuters ..
Number of bandwidth providers Number of bandwidth providers
Optical communications in 2025 — 6
Source Corning International Traffic Model / LIGHTWAVE July 2000, see http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/r3461.pdf
Traffic segmentation by client (as projected from 2000)
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Gbi
t/s
voice
transaction data
internet
total
157%/Y
8%/Y
8%/Y
157%/Y
1 Pbit/s
1 Tbit/s
1 Gbit/s
actual 2005115%/Y
• 115%/Y from actual 2005 = 3.25 Exabit/s in 2025.. (1Ebit/s=103Pbit/s=106Tbit/s)
Optical communications in 2025 — 7
Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (1/2)
*Data source: www.telegeography.com
• Aggregate internet traffic (international average) is growing 115% annually(doubling every 0.90y/10.8mo)*
• So far, the installed capacity (eg. Atlantic)provides sufficient (x2) margin to satisfyneeds up to 2007
• With current submarine-cable technology, a single 5Tbit/s protected-traffic systemcan fully handle such a need
• But the situation will be very differenta few years from now.. !!
Asia 434% Atlantic 110%Pacific 119% Europe 82%
2003-2004
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Atla
ntic
IP tr
affic
and
inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (T
bit/s
)
installedpeak average
Atlantic
Optical communications in 2025 — 8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Atlantic IP
tra
ffic
and
insta
lled c
apacity (
Tbit/s
)
115%
50%
25%
installedpeak average
catastrophic World Wide Wait
20%
• The scenarios of 50-115% internet traffic growth are catastrophic in a 3.5-7 years horizon !
• A 25%-only Internet traffic growthshould “make it“
>>> But is it a scenario we canbelieve for the next 20 years ?
• Assume the installed capacity ( ) to grow only at a 20%/year rate
Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (2/2)
Optical communications in 2025 — 9
2004 data source: www.telegeography.com
181.4Gbit/s
504.5 Gbit/s
Global internet fiber routes with 5Gbit/s minimum (status mid-2004)
66.3Gbit/s
Optical communications in 2025 — 10
Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (1999-2006)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cap
acity
(T
bit/s
)Atlantic
Pacific
intra-Asia
US-LatAm
Eu-Africa-Asia
Data source: www.telegeography.com
Optical communications in 2025 — 11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Cap
acity
(T
bit/s
)
Atlantic
Pacific
intra-Asia
US-LatAm
Eu-Africa-Asia
Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (2005-2025)
• Assuming a conservative 20% yearly growth (doubling every 3.8y/45.6m) :
38-foldincreasefrom 2005traffic
Optical communications in 2025 — 12
2004 data source: www.telegeography.com
0.18 Tbit/s47 Tbit/s
0.5 Tbit/s95 Tbit/s
Global internet fiber routes: 2004 to 2025
0.066 Tbit/s25 Tbit/s
20042025 20% yearly growth
ULH performance roadmap (2025) : 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair
Optical communications in 2025 — 13
Installed-fiber indicator (1996-2007)
• 2000 bubble, before & after : “U.S. fiber/cable markets will not return to past growth rates, and quantities will remain below the peak of 2000 through the decade” *
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Mill
ion
fiber
-km
/ ye
ar World total
US
* and 1997-2007 data:KMI Research, 2002
10 Mkm/y=
317 m/s> csound !
9%
17%
fiber glut
bubble pops
recovery
back to 2-digits growth (US)
Optical communications in 2025 — 14
Installed fiber, scenarios through 2025
• 2007-2025:(conservatively) assume+20% YoY growth for US+10% YoY growth for RoW
0
100
200
300
400
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mill
ions
fibe
r-km
/ ye
ar
World total
US
ROW• Equal markets in 2019 :
2 times 2000 level !Driving factors:> US: - primarily: Atlantic/Pacific links + backbone infrastructure- secondarily: deployment of FTTx/PON = “low-cost”BB optical solutions for E&R> Rest of the World:- primarily: ubiquitous infrastructure deployment+ core/metro/access- secondarily: undersea
• 2020-2025: market saturation or second bubble ?
Optical communications in 2025 — 15
FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (1/3)
• FTTP-BPON/EPON subscription fees to become competitive over xDSL with 100M-1Gbit/s symmetric offer..
• 2004-2010: aggressive FTTP roll-outs in Japan (NTT, KDDI..) and US (Verizon, SBC..), to be followed (more slowly?) by EU-25
• Difficulties to estimate long-term growth: - “house passed” is not “subscriber” (factor 3 to 4 overestimate)- 2005-2015: FTTx service adoption to remain well below xDSL (10-40Mbit/s), 5% in 2009*
• But new enterprise/residential/ private services to appear in 2010-2025 and massive deployment at end-user cost similar to xDSLmay boost FTTx adoption
* source: RHK, sept. 2004
Optical communications in 2025 — 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Hom
es p
asse
d (m
illio
ns)
Eu-25
Japan
US
Total
FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (2/3)
• Test case: combine predictions till 2010 concerning- EU-25*- Japan (NTT)**- US (SBC+Verizon)***
• Yields 70M home passedin 2010, or 17-23M subscribers
• New installed fiber : (3.5m/home)****245,000 km
• Combined 2010 traffic (100Mbit/s @50%) : 425-575Tbit/s
Sources: *Yankee Group, sept. 2004; **FTTH Council, 2004; *** Press/announcements; **** =38,8000 miles /18 million homes
23%/Y
Optical communications in 2025 — 17
FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (3/3)
• Worlwide FTTP deployment: assume steady growth (23-15-10%/Y) from 2010 to 2025…
• Homes passed :1.52 Billion (19%)555 Million (7%)285 Million (3%)(% of 2025 world population*)
• New fiber installed (max):5.32 Mkm
• Total 2025 traffic (max): (100Mbit/s @50%)19-25 Pbit/s
* ie: 8 billions, see World population estimate 1950-2050, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html
1
10
100
1000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hom
es p
asse
d (M
illio
ns)
23%/Y
15%/Y10%/Y
1,520
555285
Optical communications in 2025 — 18
74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06
10
1/1000
100
10
1/1000
100
10
1/1000
100
Cap
acity
x d
ista
nce
(bi
t.km
/s)
year
PETA
TERA
GIGA
MEGA
FEC (>1999)
0.8 µm MMF1.3µm SMF
1.5µm DSFcoherent
100
108
10 every 4 years?
EDFAWDM
DM, C+L
1000
© J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004
Raman
The capacity-distance view
• Optical Moore’s law : 30 years after
Optical communications in 2025 — 19
The optical Moore’s Law / are we sure ? (1/2)
• CxD trend of 10-fold increase every 4 years :
skmPbitDCY
/.2178.5 053.12000?
???
2009
1936
0.19
2013
26,951
2.69
2017
375,055
37.5
2021
5,219,263
521
2005
139
0.01
skmPbitDC /.,?
sPbitC /,(10,000 km
transoceanic link)
year 2025
72,631,164
7,263
7 millions Tbits/s
Optical communications in 2025 — 20
The optical Moore’s Law / revisited
1,E-08
1,E-06
1,E-04
1,E-02
1,E+00
1,E+02
1,E+04
1,E+06
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Cap
acity
(T
bit/s
)
optical Moore’s L
aw
incrementaltechnology
100Tbit/s
Tra
nsoc
eani
c7x106Tbit/s
disruptivetechnology
75.3/ 210
Y
sPbitKmDC ???3.75 years = 45months
Optical communications in 2025 — 21
• Year 2025 “extra-conservative” fiber-capacity prediction:
100 Tbit/s over 10,000 km 1 Pbit/s over 1,000 km10 Pbit/s over 100 km
• Key question:
Can 2005 Lightwave Communications experts confirm right now wethersuch performance is theoretically possible ?
The optical Moore’s Law / revisited
Tbit/s =
Optical communications in 2025 — 22
? (nm)
Atte
nuat
ion
coef
ficie
nt (
dB/k
m)
OHpeak
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700
30nm(1530-1560)
25nm(1295-1320)
LC
OE
S
80nm(1340-1420)
0.4
0.3
0.2
minimal attenuation=minimal ASE
U/XL
10x moredB lossper 100km
60nm(1630-1690)
Fiber bandwidth
bendingloss
EDFA
Raman
© E.Desurvire et al., J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004
60nm(1420-1480)
40nm(1575-1615)
200nm=23.5 THz
Raman
400nm=54.5 THz
Optical communications in 2025 — 23
Fiber bandwidth: superband exploitation scenario
? (nm)
(dB
/km
)
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700
0.4
0.3
0.2
Assumption: Two fiber pairs of priority traffic (2X usable fiber capacity) + 2:2 protection
Superband capacity upgrade: M-ary formats (M=4,8,16..)
400nm=54.5 THzPhase II(2025)superband B
Phase II, 2025: superband B (about 50 THz): 100 Tbit/s RZ
200nm=23.5 THzPhase I(2015)superband A
Phase I, 2015: superband A (about 25THz): 50 Tbit/s RZ
Optical communications in 2025 — 24
Effect of modulation format
• QAM and PSK M-aries makepossible to reach ISDsmuch greater than 1 bit/s/Hz
• But lots of signal levels ! (e.g. >256 for 10 bit/s/Hz)
• And coherent receiversrequired, making implementationcomplex and demanding very high fiber linearity (AM, PM)
• High ISD requires high SNR-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Bit SNR (dB)
Info
rmat
ion
spec
tral d
ensi
ty L
OG
(bit/
s/H
z)
M=
2
4
8
1632
64128
128
64
32
16
84
FS K
PSK
QAM
BER =10-3 to 10-11
10 bit/s/Hz
1 bit/s/Hz
IM-DD
© J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002
Information spectral density: the Shannon limit
don’t
even
think
abou
t it
Optical communications in 2025 — 25
CONCLUSION (1/2)
• Traffic growth over the next 20 years phenomenal compared to the past 30 years (+115%/Y world average)
• But serious problem of installed capacity exhaustion in 3.5-7 years ?
• Ultra-conservative scenario:- 20% installed capacity growth for undersea links- 25% Internet growth
> yields rock-bottom need for 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair in 2025
> Implementation needs “superbands” concept phase I/II(yet in two priority-traffic fiber pairs)
> 10/20-y challenge: achieve 50-100THz commercial systems
Optical communications in 2025 — 26
Optical (fiber) bandwidth is not infinite
Optical Moore’s law is now meaningless and misleading
20-y objectives can only be reached though tech-driven researchand there is an urgent need to get started
CONCLUSION (2/2)
Thank you for your kind attention !
Disclaimer :
This presentationbeing essentially speculative,conclusions may not be used
towards any business purposes
Optical communications in 2025 — 28
Optical communications in 2025 — 29
Optical communications in 2025 — 30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
mean signal photon number <n0 >
SN
R
purelynon-linear
purely linear
model 1
model 2 (exact, approx.)
32
max 232
???
????
??
N
th
PP
SNR
Effect of WDM nonlinearity (binary)
1: Stark-Mithra, 2001(Nature)
2: Desurvire, 2002(ECOC’02)
Information spectral denity: nonlinearity limits
© J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002
The capacity of theoptical channel cannot be indefinitely increased with signal powersince SNR is boundedby a maximum limit which is function of the nonlinearity thresholdof the channel