IIM Ahmedabad

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

8th AIM International WorkshopNIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 13-15, 2003

Emission Inventory and Modelling in India

Analysis Using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

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Overview

Emissions Inventory for India

Future Emissions for India Large Point Sources Analysis

Non CO2 Emissions

Future Scenarios for India

South-Asia Regional Cooperation

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Emissions Inventory for India

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Emissions Inventory for India

Emissions (Tg) 1990 1995 2000 CAGR *

Carbon dioxide 593 778 983 4.9

Methane 17.050 18.050 18.630 1.2

N2

O 0.213 0.251 0.308 3.8

SO2

3.540 4.640 5.02 5.3

NOX

2.640 3.460 4.660 5.0

CO2

equivalent GHG 1016 1234 1469 3.5

* Compounded Annual Growth Rate over 1990-2000 (%)

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Key Contributors to India's GHG emissions (2000)

Sources Emission % share Main emission sources Coal based electricity CO2 29.9 50 large plants Steel industry CO2 8.8 5 large plants Cement industry CO2 5.1 50 large plants Livestock related CH4, N2O 12.6 Highly dispersed Paddy cultivation CH4 6.6 Highly dispersed Biomass consumption CH4, N2O 5.2 Highly dispersed Synthetic fertilizer use N2O 4.1 Highly dispersed Transport sector CO2 9.5 Highly dispersed and mobile Waste disposal CH4 3.8 40 large waste dumps Other sources CO2, CH4, N2O 14.4 Varied and dispersed All India (Tg) 1469 As above

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India Emission Trends (Tg)

Carbon dioxide Methane

1616.5

1717.5

1818.5

1919.5

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s(T

g)0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s (T

g)

Growth rate 4.9%

Growth rate 1.2%

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India Emission Trends (Tg)

SO2 and NOx N2O

01234567

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s (T

g)

SO2 (GR 5.3%)

NOx (GR 4.9%)N2O Growth rate 3.9%

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.35

1990 1995 2000

Emis

sion

s(T

g)

N2O (GR 3.8%)

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Emission Inventory: GIS Analysis

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GIS Layers

Coal Mining

Aluminum

Paper

Power (Coal)

PointSource data Layers

Display on Base Map

Emission information

Extract

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CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)SO2CO2

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Hot-spots of CO2 and SO2 have high correlation with coal consumption

Thermal power plants (Coal), large cities (Oil) and industrial towns – main hot-spots

Top 20 districts growth rate higher than national average

Least 400 contribution decreased but emissions marginally increased

CO2 and SO2 Emission Distribution (2000)

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LPS Location MapSectors LPS

coveredPower 94Steel 11Cement 85Fertilizer 31Paper 33Sugar 28Caustic Soda 19Crude refinery 12Petrochemical 14HNO3 manufacturing 5H2SO4 manufacturing 63Aluminum 3Copper smelting 8Lead smelting 5Zinc smelting 3Alcohol production 14Coal mining 32Natural gas production 9N. gas transportation 12Crude oil production 7Municipal solid waste 14Other industries 7Total 509

1995

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Million Tons

LPS: CO2 Emissions1995

CO2

Sectors

No. ofLPS LPS (Tg) LPS/Total

Power 94 365 47

Steel 11 48 6

Cement 85 68 9

Fertilizer 31 14 2

Sugar 28 0.7 0.09

Paper 33 2.9 0.37

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Future Emissions for India

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National Level Emission Projections for India

Emissions (Tg) 2000 2010 2020 2030 CO2 983 1556 2189 2945 Methane 18.63 20.08 21.73 24.36 N2O 0.308 0.508 0.702 0.838 CO2 equivalent GHG 1469 2134 2889 3716 SO2 5.02 5.87 6.25 5.77 NOX 4.66 6.08 7.64 8.53

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LPS Database

Data for increasing numbers of LPS

Coverage of gases: CO2 and SO2

Emissions factors for India

Projections up to year 2030

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LPS Locations2000 2030

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AIM/Local System

Input Filefor GAMS

Output filefrom GAMS

Sum of Value Energy_Device RemovalCK1 CK2 COLBLR

Year NON NON NON SFGD_bas e 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24 ,528,000 1,752,000 1995 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24 ,528,000 1,752,000 1996 6,000,000 26 ,134,533 1,664,400 1997 6,180,000 27 ,624,834 1,584,466 1998 6,365,400 29 ,010,707 1,510,876 1999 6,556,362 30 ,301,836 1,442,662 2000 6,753,053 31 ,506,418 1,379,091 2001 6,955,645 32 ,631,543 1,319,587 2002 7,164,314 33 ,683,447 1,263,694 2003 7,379,244 34 ,667,680 1,211,035 2004 7,600,621 35 ,589,232 1,161,300 2005 7,828,640 36 ,452,618 1,114,226

Input filefor IDRISI

AIM/LocalDatabase System

AIM/Local ModelGAMS version

GAMS

IDRISI32

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Database Generation

Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters

Thirty year time series GDPGovernment projectionsExpert opinion

LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trendsDemand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources

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LPS Coverage for IndiaSector Sub-sectors LPS covered

2000 2010 2020 2030Power (coal & Oil) 82 111 131 150Power (natural gas) 12 17 20 23Steel 10 16 22 28Cement * 85 98 110 123Fertilizer 31 41 52 62Paper 33 38 43 48Sugar 28 28 29 30

Energy

Caustic Soda 19 21 23 26H2SO4 manufacturing 63 64 66 68Aluminium (Al) 3 4 5 5Copper ore smelting (Cu) 8 9 10 11Lead ore smelting (Pb) 5 6 7 8

Industrial processes

Zinc ore smelting (Zn) 3 4 5 5

Total 382 457 523 587

* Process emissions included

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CO2 from Energy Sector LPS

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mill

ion

Ton

Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mill

ion

Ton

Power (Coal & Oil) Power (Gas) Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

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LPS contribution to CO2

2000 2010 2020 20301 to 25 35.2 32.5 31 31.526 to 100 20.9 20.3 20.7 20.8101 to 200 6.7 7.8 8.6 8.7All other LPS 1.3 2.7 3 3.9Total LPS Share 64.1 63.3 63.3 64.9

Largest LPSPercentage CO2 Emissions

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CO2 Emission Distribution2000 2030

05

10 15

30

40

20

Million Tons< 3 3 - 66 - 99 - 12 12 - 15 15 - 18 18 - 21 > 21

Million Tons

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SO2 from Energy Sector LPS

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mill

ion

Ton

Power Steel Cement Fertilizer Paper Sugar

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SO2 Emission Distribution2000 2030

< 0.010.01-0.017

0.017-0.0260.026-0.0350.035-0.044 0.044-0.0530.053-0.060

> 0.060

Million Tons < 0.010.03

0.07

0.15

< 0.20

0.11

Million Tons < 0.01

0.03

0.07

0.15

< 0.20

0.11

Million Tons

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Future Non CO2 Emissions

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CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2 Equivalent GHG Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Inde

x 20

00 =

100

CO2

Methane

N2OCO2 equivalent

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

CO

2eq

uiva

lent

(% S

hare

)

CO2 Methane N2O

Share of CO2, CH4 and N2O in CO2Equivalent GHG Emissions

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Contributions to Methane Emissions

05

101520253035404550

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

% S

hare

agriculture

livestock

wasteothers

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0102030405060708090

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

Min

ing

Shar

e (%

) Opencast mining

Underground mining

Shares of opencast and underground mining in methane emissions

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Methane emissions in Mitigation scenarios

15

17

19

21

23

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years

Met

hane

(Tg)

Reference

Medium

Strong

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N2O emissions across scenarios

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years

N2O

(Tg)

Reference

MediumStrong

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Technology Shares for CH4 MitigationSector Technology Type 2010 2020 2030 Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong

Existing 0.004 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.13 CH4 recovery Innovative 0 0.002 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.18 Existing 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.11 Waste to

electricity Innovative 0 0.001 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.12 Existing 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.26 Waste reduction

to organic fertilizer

Innovative 0 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.23

MSW

Waste segregation for material reuse & recycle

Existing 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.25

Degasification & pipe injection

Existing 0.005 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.18 CBM recovery

Catalytic oxidation

Innovative 0 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.14

Existing 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.10 Enteric fermentation

Improved digesters for animals

Innovative 0 0.004 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.14

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Technology Shares for N2O Mitigation2010 2020 2030 Sector Technology Type

Med Strong Med Strong Med Strong Existing 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.2 0.25 CAN

fertilizers in crops with aerobic conditions

Innovative 0 0.02 0.03 0.09 0.1 0.2

Existing 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.26

Synthetic fertilizer use

Ammonium (NH4-N) fertilizers in wetland crops

Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.2

Existing 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.17 0.18 0.25 Soil emissions

Use of nitrification inhibitors

Innovative 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.18

Existing 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.23 0.28 HNO3 prodn.

NSCR use Innovative 0 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.18 0.27

CAN (calcium ammonium nitrate), NSCR (Non selective catalytic reduction)

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Future Scenario for India

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Matrix of Indian scenarios

Market integration

Centralization

Decentralization

IA1High Growth

IA2Business ass usual

IB1Sustainable Development

IB2Self Reliance

Governance

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Scenarios and Key Drivers

Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters of the scenarios and modelling analysis

IA1: High Growth

Competition and private participation, Access to global finance and technology, Technology R&D, transfer and capacity building Reduced risk perception

Fuel price (↑), technology cost (↓), efficiency (↑), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Investment capacity (↑), Technology choices (↑), Discount rate (↓), Earlier penetration of advanced technologies

IA2: BAU Case

GDP growth, Energy efficiency, Non-fossil fuels vs. fossil fuels, Oil consumption Technological change, Movement on the fuel ladder

Sectoral demands (↑↓), investment limits (↑↓), fuel supply (↑↓), Range of Fossil fuel prices (↑↓), Relative fossil fuel price adjustments, Efficiencies of technologies using oil and gas

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Scenarios and Key Drivers Contd..

Scenario Key Drivers Implications on critical parameters of the scenarios and modelling analysis

IB1: Sustainable Development

Strong environmental awareness and conservationist values, Environmental integrity, consumption changes, dematerialization, cooperation, Shift away from fossil fuels, Local capacity building, Rural energy and electricity development

Environmental constraints (↑), energy and materials content of goods/ services (↓), electricity consumption due to efficiency improvements (↓), Transmission and Distribution losses (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑), Fossil fuel prices (↑)

IB2: Regional Development

GDP growth, population, Local emissions, Productivity, Importance of Agriculture, Resource intensity, Self-reliance

Population growth (↑), Sectoral demand (↑↓), Investments (↓), Penetration of clean and renewable technologies (↑↓), Agriculture share high, Local resource intensive economy

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India: Population Projection

High

Medium

Low

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

2001 2011 2021 2031

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(Mill

ion)

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India: GDP Projection

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2010 2020 2030

Years

GD

P In

dex

(200

0 =

100) IA1

IB1IA2IB2

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Growth in Energy Forms in Different Scenarios

Oil & Gas Coal Renewables IA1 High Moderate Moderate IA2 Moderate High Low IB1 Moderate Low High IB2 Low Moderate Low

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South-Asia Regional Cooperation

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Why South-Asia Energy-Electricity Market Integration?

Diversity of Energy Resources among countriesIndia relies on poor quality domestic coal

Bangladesh has reserves of Natural Gas

Nepal and Bhutan have Hydro power potential

Sri Lanka needs to import fuel for power

Pakistan has an important role as a transit state

Little Energy/ Electricity Trade in the Region

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Energy Resource Consumption (2000)

51%Oil (89%) – Mostly importsSri Lanka

33%Oil (55%) – Mostly importsPakistan

81%Oil (74%) – Mostly importsNepal

55%Imported oilMaldives

35%Coal (52%) – Mostly Domestic India

95%Imported oil and coalBhutan

47%Domestic Gas (65%)Bangladesh

Traditional Biomass(as % of total energy

consumption)

Dominant fuel in commercial energy

consumption

Country

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Energy MarketsGasCoal ElectricityHydro (Elec./Water)

Regional Energy-Electricity Markets

Nepal/BhutanHydro

Gas

Gas/Oil

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South-Asia Cooperation Scenarios

Country specific analysis using the AIM/ Trend model

Interface of the trend results with bottom-up optimization model for South-Asia regional analysis

Three specific scenarios have been developedDynamics as Usual

Medium Cooperation Scenario

Accelerated Cooperation Scenario

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Total Primary Energy Supply Saving

• Cumulative Saving in ACS: 60 EJ in 20 years (2010-2030)

• This is equivalent to $180 billion cumulative

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2020 2030

% S

avin

g

MCS ACS

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Reduction in Carbon Emissions

0

4

8

12

16

2010 2020 2030

% D

ecre

ase

MCS ACS

• Cumulative Savings in ACS: 1.4 Billion tonnes of Carbon.

• This is equivalent to $28 Billion saving

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Benefits from Cooperation (Cumulative from 2010-30)

Benefit (Saving)

$ Billion % of Region's GDP

Energy (Direct Benefits)

Energy 60 Exa Joule 180 0.48 Investment in Energy Supply Technologies

72 0.19

Investment in Energy Demand Technologies

69 0.18

Environment (Indirect Benefits) Carbon 1.4 Billion Ton 28 0.08 Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 50 Million Ton 10 0.03

Total Direct and Indirect Benefits 359 0.98 Spillover Benefits

Water 16 GW additional hydro capacity Flood Control From additional dams Competitiveness Reduced unit energy/electricity cost

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Future Agenda 2003-04

Regional Modelling of Non CO2 emissionsInventory of six Kyoto gases for year 2000Assessment of innovative technologiesNew model with developing country focusRefinement of scenariosFuture emission projections for new scenarios using AIM family models

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Thank You