Emission for 6W/m2 - Joint Global Change Research Institute · Final energy. 0 100 200 300 400 500...
Transcript of Emission for 6W/m2 - Joint Global Change Research Institute · Final energy. 0 100 200 300 400 500...
Emission Pathway for 6W/m2
Toshihiko Masui, Kenichi Matsumoto, Yasuaki
Hijioka,
Tsuguki
Kinoshita, Toru Nozawa, Sawako Ishiwatari,
Mikiko
Kainuma
(National Institute for Environmental Studies)
Etsushi
Kato
(Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology)
IAMC Meeting Tsukuba, Japan
September 15, 2009
Flowchart of RCP6.0Flowchart of RCP6.0
AIM/Impact
[Policy]
AIM/CGE [Global]
Emission
downscaling model
Landuse
downscaling
model
Population/GD
P scenario
GHG/Aerosol emission path
Base year
data
Radiative
forcing
Population/GDPDownscaling model
Pop./GDPGrid cell data
Emission scenario[region]
Global
RegionNational
Grid cell
Land‐use
change
Ecosystem
model
Land‐cover/land‐use
Emission [fire, land‐
use change]
Emission[others]
production factormarket
capital
laborland
Final demand sector
resource
Production sectors
produced commoditymarket
food
serviceenergy
...
tradeJapan
China...
Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity
...
Annual parameter change
GHGsemissions
GHGsemissions
climatechange
feedbackeg. land productivity change due to climate changescenarios: population, GDP, ...
structure of AIM/CGEstructure of AIM/CGE
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GDP Population
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XAF XLMXRE XE10XE15 XRAzaf xmerus braarg mexusa canxsa indxse thaidn korjpn chnnzl aus
CO2
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CO2
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EJ
Wind, Solar, Geoth., othehydro
nuclear
coal
biomass
gas
oil
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EJ
Electricity
Liquids
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other
gas
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Primary energy
Final energy
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XAF XLMXRE XE10XE15 XRAzaf xmerus braarg mexusa canxsa indxse thaidn korjpn chnnzl aus
Primary energy
Final energy
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EJ
Wind, Solar, Geoth., otherhydro
nuclear
coal
biomass
gas
oil
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400
500
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800
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EJ
Electricity
Liquids
Solids
other
gas
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Primary energy
Final energy
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EJ
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EJ
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Primary energy
Final energy
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TgSO
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TgSO
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SAV
AWB
RES
IND
WST
ENE
ISH
TRA
LUC
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TgCH
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SAV
AGR
AWB
RES
IND
WST
ENE
ISH
TRA
LUC
Results of AIM/CGE (Reference)Results of AIM/CGE (Reference)
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TgCH
4XAF XLMXRE XE10XE15 XRAzaf xmerus braarg mexusa canxsa indxse thaidn korjpn chnnzl aus
CH4 CH4
SO2 SO2
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AGR
AWB
RES
IND
WST
ENE
ISH
TRA
LUC
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WST
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ISH
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LUC0
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Results of AIM/CGE (6W/mResults of AIM/CGE (6W/m22))
SO2 SO2
CH4
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Spatial explicit population/GDP scenarioSpatial explicit population/GDP scenario
DataData PopulationPopulation GDPGDP
UN population(UN Long range)
UN population(UN Long range)
224
countriesPopulation data
(2000-2050)
183
countriesGDP
data(2000-2100)
224
countriesPopulation data
(2000-2100)
30
secondGrid cell pop.(2000-2100)
UN population(UN shot range)
UN population(UN shot range) IFs
GDP scenarioIFs
GDP scenario
224 countriesGDP
data(2000-2100)
UN UrbanizationUN Urbanization
30 secondGrid cell GDP(2000-2100)
Income gapIncome gap
GTAP GDP in 2001GTAP GDP in 2001
IIASAPopulation
scenario
Population
rank‐size
rule
Urban area
rank‐size
rule
DataData
LanduseLanduse
downscaling modeldownscaling model
1. Urban (GDP, crop price…)2. Cropland (yield, slope angle…)3. Pasture (NPP, slope angle…)4. Harvest forest (population density..)
Geophysical constraint・Built‐up area < 5 degree・Forest < 20 degreeetc.
0.5 degree
1km
Results (LandResults (Land--use scenario)use scenario)
0.00E+00
5.00E+06
1.00E+07
1.50E+07
2.00E+07
2.50E+07
3.00E+07
3.50E+07
4.00E+07
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Pasture [km2]
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PasturePasture
20002000 20502050
21002100
Sector region indicator for downscale
electricity Japan population
electricity China population
… … …
agriculture USA agricultural area
… … …
Summed upFrom IAM
AIM
24 region
・Power plant & energy conv. (by population)・Industry: process & combustion(by GDP)・Solvent use(by GDP)・Residential & commercial (by rural pop)・Waste(by population)・Agriculture: waste (by agriculture)・International shipping・Aviation・Transportation (road & railroad)・Agriculture : Animal & Soil
Downscale byindicator
Global distributionRegional distribution
Emission downscaling modelEmission downscaling model
:spatially explicit indicator for region and for sector
:regional emissions for region and for sector estimated by IAM
Case 1Case 1
r sr
srsrsrss dxdytyxw
tyxwttetettyxEtyxE
),,(),,(
)()(),,(),,(,
,,,
r sx y t
),,( tyxEs
)(, te srr s
),,(, tyxw srr s
:region :sector:longitude :latitude :year
:gridded emissions from a sector s
Changes in regional emissions are downscaled according to spatially explicit indicators for each sector and each region.ENE(total population), IND(GDP), SLV(GDP), DOM(rural population), WST(total population)
& AWB(cropland area)
Spatial explicit emission scenariosSpatial explicit emission scenarios
Case 1 (Industry, NO2)
20002000 20502050
21002100
:global emissions for sector estimated by IAM
:gridded emissions from a sector
Case 2Case 2
)()(),,(),,(
00 te
tetyxEtyxEs
sss
sx y t
),,( tyxEs
)(tess
:sector:longitude :latitude :year
s
Global distribution at year 2000 is scaled by world total emissions.SHP & AIR
Spatial explicit emission scenariosSpatial explicit emission scenarios
20002000 20502050
21002100
Case 2
(International shipping, SO2)
:
spatially explicit indicator for region and for sector
:regional emissions for region and for sector estimated by IAM
Case 3Case 3
r sr
srsrs te
tetyxEtyxE )()(),,(),,(
0,
,0,
r sx y t
),,( tyxEs
)(, te srr s
),,(, tyxw srr s
:region :sector:longitude :latitude :year
:gridded emissions from a sector s
),,(, tyxE sr :gridded emissions region and for sector sr
Regional distribution at year 2000 is scaled by regional total emissions for each region.TRA & AGR
Spatial explicit emission scenariosSpatial explicit emission scenarios
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Case 3 (Agriculture, NH3)
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CO
2 e
mis
sion [TgC
/yr
]
Year
6W stabilize
Reference
Ecosystem modelEcosystem model
Assessing carbon cycle
Transition Matrix (λ)
agricultureagriculture
primaryforest
primaryforest
2nd forest2nd forest
Forest Harvesting
(λPS )
Natural Disturbance
Forest Harvesting(λss )
Land clearing
Land abandonment
(λSA )
(λP
A)
(λAS )CO2 emission by landuse
change
Spatial explicit emission scenariosSpatial explicit emission scenarios
20002000 20502050
21002100
Case 4 (savanna burning, BC)