Emerging Trends of Urban Poverty in Asia and the PRC
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Emerging Trends of Urban Poverty in Asia and the PRC Guanghua Wan Principal Economist, ADB Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this document, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
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Emerging Trends of Urban Poverty in Asia and the PRC. Guanghua Wan Principal Economist, ADB. Disclaimer: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Emerging Trends of Urban Poverty in Asia and the PRC
Emerging Trends of Urban Poverty in Asia and the PRC
Guanghua WanPrincipal Economist, ADB
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this document are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this document, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
Asia's Urban Poverty Trend (%)
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70PRC IndonesiaIndia Average
Hea
dcou
nt R
atio
(%)
Note: PRC= People’s Republic of China
Asia's Urban Poverty Trend (in million)
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20100
50
100
150
200
250PRC IndiaIndonesia Total
No.
of P
oor (
mill
ion)
Note: PRC= People’s Republic of China
Asian Urban Poverty: Latest ($1.25 a day)
Country YearHCR (%)
No. of Poor(million)
Armenia 2010 5.08 0.10 Bangladesh 2010 20.97 8.18 Cambodia 2009 2.08 0.06 China, People’s Rep. of 2010 0.64 3.85 Georgia 2010 6.85 0.49 India 2010 28.97 106.64 Indonesia 2010 18.33 23.61 Nepal 2010 8.88 0.47 Pakistan 2011 7.51 3.25 Papua New Guinea 2009 8.77 0.06 Philippines 2009 6.18 2.67 Sri Lanka 2010 2.73 0.08 Thailand 2009 0.02 0.00 Viet Nam 2010 1.28 0.33 Total 11.61 149.79
The 14 DMCs account for 92% of developing Asia’s total population
Urban extreme poor in Asia is about 12.3% of World’s total poverty
11.6% of Asia’s urban population is extremely poor
Urban Poverty in Total Poverty ($1.25 a day)
Country YearUrban Poor/ Total Poor (%)
Armenia 2010 65.67 Bangladesh 2010 12.60 Cambodia 2009 3.79 China, People’s Rep. of 2010 2.47 Georgia 2010 40.82 India 2010 26.65 Indonesia 2010 54.50 Nepal 2010 5.93 Pakistan 2011 17.20 Papua New Guinea 2009 3.59 Philippines 2009 17.82 Sri Lanka 2010 8.79 Thailand 2009 2.80 Viet Nam 2010 5.00 Total 20.86
Urban Poverty in Total Poverty: Trend
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
PRC IndiaIndonesia Average
Shar
e in
Tot
al P
oor (
%)
Note: PRC= People’s Republic of China
PRC Urban Poverty by Region (%)
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Central Eastern Western
Hea
dcou
nt R
atio
(%)
Growth vs. Distribution (Urban PRC)
-0.17
-0.14
-0.11
-0.08
-0.05
-0.02
0.01
0.04
0.07
0.1
Inequality Growth
Chan
ge in
HCR
(per
cent
age
poin
ts)
Growth Vs. DistributionCh
ange
in H
CR (p
erce
ntag
e po
ints
)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Central
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Eastern
-3-2.5
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
2 Western
Growth
Inequality
Inequality Really Matters25 30 35 40 45 50
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
Central and West
East
South
Southeast
The PacificInitial Gini
Gro
wth
ela
stici
ty
No. of obs 124 R-squared 0.2574Adj R-squared 0.2513
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t stat P-valueGini 0.0218 0.0034 6.5 0.000Constant -1.2277 0.1247 -9.84 0.000
Inequality usually higher in urban than in rural areas; urbanization may/may not help
1990
2008
1993
2009/10
1990
2011
Chin
a, P
eopl
e's R
ep. o
fIn
dia
Indo
nesia
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Rural Urban
Gini coefficient (%)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
PRC
Thei
l ind
ex
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%-0.03
0.02
0.07
0.12
0.17
0.22
0.27
India
Total inequality Within Between
Share of urban population
Thei
l ind
ex
Inequality-Urbanization: PRC
Urban Poverty-Urbanization: Asia
10 30 50 70-5
5
15
25
Level of Urbanization (%)
Hea
dcou
nt R
atio
(%) Logarithmic
QuadraticLinear
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100-3
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
Level of Urbanization (%)
Hea
dcou
nt R
atio
(%)
Urban Poverty-Urbanization: PRC
LogarithmicQuadraticLinear
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80-55
152535455565758595
Level of Urbanization (%)
Hea
dcou
nt R
atio
(%)
Total Poverty-Urbanization: Asia
LogarithmicQuadraticLinear
Tentative Conclusion
• Urban poverty has become a serious issue in Asia
• Inequality is as important as growth for poverty reduction
• Urbanization may lead to higher inequality, offsetting its growth impact on poverty
• But overall, urbanization is good for poverty reduction in Asia
Policy Implications for PRC
• Fast urbanization is win-win: growth + distribution
• The key is to control within-urban inequality
