Emerging Trends in International Educationaiec.idp.com/uploads/pdf/Morris_Thurs_1630_M3.pdf ·...

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Australian International Education Conference 2008

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Emerging Trends in International Education

Australian International Education Conference

9 October 2008

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The 1.6% of the population in China

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of Australia

2%

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They have more gifted & talented students, than we have students

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Australia

It is estimated that

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According to former USAccording to former USSecretary of EducationSecretary of Education

Richard RileyRichard Riley……

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It is estimated that aweek’s worth of The Times…

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For students starting a For students starting a

threethree--year university degree, year university degree,

this means that . . .this means that . . .

half of what they learn in their first half of what they learn in their first

year of study will be outdated year of study will be outdated

by the end of their studies.by the end of their studies.

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7 out of 10 7 out of 10

teenagers have a teenagers have a

handheld games machinehandheld games machine

9 out of 10 9 out of 10

teenagers have a teenagers have a

home computerhome computer, a , a

mobile phone mobile phone and a and a games consolegames console

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84%84% of young people play computer games at least once a of young people play computer games at least once a

fortnightfortnight

72%72% of teachers of teachers nevernever play computer gamesplay computer games

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$1500$1500

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Credits

•Karl Fisch, of Arapahoe High School in the US, conceived

and created the first version of this presentation for a staff development day. And published it on the web…

• http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com

•Scott McLeod modified it, to make it more relevant to a wider context. And published it on the web…

•Jeff Brenman, of Apollo Ideas, applied the creative design. And published it on the web…

• http://www.apolloideas.com

•Ray Fleming, of Microsoft, modified it to reflect a UK context. And published it on the web…

If you modify this version, we’d all ask that you share it on the web too, so that others can benefit.

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Key Trends1. Changing world

2. Australia’s changing demographic

3. Changing nature of demand

4. Changing marketplace

• The emergence of the private sector

• Growing competition

5. Changing modes of delivery

• Online

• TNE

6. Growing importance of branding and delivering on the promise

7. Skill shortages within the Australian workforce

The World’s Greying Population Changing World

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Genders Out of Kilter

Among the rising generations of China and India, there are significantly more men than women.

Changing World

Women Up, Men Down

Queen trumps king as women advance in education and work.

Changing World

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Radical Transparency

• There’s a growing acceptance of living life in the open – in fact, many are actively embracing transparency.

facts:

– Top 10 countries in order of active users: U.S., Canada, U.K., Australia, Turkey, Sweden, Norway, South Africa, France and Hong Kong.

– Over 61 million active users.

– Over 6 million active user groups.

– Over 18 million members in the U.S., over 7 million each in Canada and the U.K.

– More than half of Facebook users are outside of college.

– The fastest-growing demographic is users 25 and older.

– More than half of active users return daily.

Changing World

Changing World

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Mobility Marks the Generation DivideChanging World

Population Trends by Age Group

Australia’s Changing

Demographic

1996 2001 2006% Change

96-06

% Change

01-06

0-4 years 1,264,906 1,243,969 1,260,404 -0.4% 1.3%

5-9 years 1,283,313 1,331,926 1,308,870 2.0% -1.7%

10-14 years 1,289,713 1,336,580 1,367,943 6.1% 2.3%

15-19 years 1,249,688 1,325,264 1,356,911 8.6% 2.4%

20-24 years 1,322,457 1,241,082 1,347,364 1.9% 8.6%

25-29 years 1,353,261 1,318,957 1,276,924 -5.6% -3.2%

30-34 years 1,390,066 1,404,231 1,399,467 0.7% -0.3%

35-39 years 1,412,011 1,431,633 1,466,183 3.8% 2.4%

40-44 years 1,315,280 1,436,655 1,471,655 11.9% 2.4%

45-49 years 1,255,612 1,319,847 1,446,734 15.2% 9.6%

50-54 years 981,812 1,248,485 1,315,783 34.0% 5.4%

55-59 years 800,049 970,735 1,234,595 54.3% 27.2%

60-64 years 683,766 789,007 958,078 40.1% 21.4%

65-69 years 670,754 660,587 757,390 12.9% 14.7%

70-74 years 587,441 619,583 616,053 4.9% -0.6%

75-79 years 415,715 504,654 543,607 30.8% 7.7%

80-84 years 277,732 323,365 404,479 45.6% 25.1%

85+ 199,253 262,689 322,848 62.0% 22.9%

Total 17,752,829 18,769,249 19,855,288 11.8% 5.8%

0-19 year olds

increased by only 1.1% since 2001.

In comparison,

those aged 60+ increased by 14%

over the same

period.

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Domestic HE Students by Level

• Most of the growth in domestic students can be attributed to the increases in PG students, although UG enrolments grew more than PG enrolments in 2005.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006% Change

01-06

% Change

05-06

Undergraduates 520,221 531,527 529,403 525,518 528,981 539,934 3.8% 2.1%

Postgraduates 147,035 160,165 170,438 173,161 173,273 177,229 20.5% 2.3%

Total 684,975 711,563 719,555 716,438 717,682 733,352 7.1% 2.2%

Projected Number of 15-24 Year Olds

2,585,972

2,713,714

2,780,720

2,819,834

2,300,000

2,450,000

2,600,000

2,750,000

2,900,000

2005 2010 2015 2020

• The growth in domestic HE students is set to stagnate as a result of the declining cohort of 15-24 year olds in Australia.

Australia’s Changing

Demographic

International HE EnrolmentsChanging Demand

115,686

135,201

151,324

163,605

171,289

177,887

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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International HE Enrolments

• The global demand for international HE is forecast to more than double to about 3.7 million by 2025

– International HE students coming from Asia to increase from 83% in 2005 to 86% by 2025

– Four countries to generate nearly 61% of the demand by 2025: China (30%), India (19%), Indonesia (6%) and Malaysia (5%)

– Currently China and India account for 42.5% of international HE enrolments in Australia

Changing Demand

Demand for Higher Education

Expansion of Higher Education

Time

Number of

Learners

A sizeable new university would now be needed every week merely to sustain current participation rates in higher education. … A crisis of access lies ahead. Sir John Daniel, 1996

By 2010, there will be 100 million people in the world fully qualified to proceed from secondary education to tertiary education for which there will simply be no room on any campus anywhere. Henry Rosovsky, Harvard University

Access: The Global Challenge

International growth in demand for higher education will be the principal driver in changes in the nature of universities in the new millennium. Blight, et. al, 2000, p. 95

Source: Observatory on Borderless Higher Education

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Implications

• While widening participation and immigration will potentially negate the effect of the declining cohort in the age group… optimistically domestic demand will remain constant

• That said….any growth in demand is most likely to come from international market

Changing Demand

• Decisions need to be made around…

– What is an appropriate level of international enrolments?

– To what degree does this impact the culture, brand and positioning of the institution?

– What are the implications to resources?

– How do we manage an increasingly international student body –implications to both the domestic and international students?

– Do we have the right products and support mechanisms in place?

– How do we create and manage diversity in the classroom?

Changing Demand

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Competition is Growing

• Competition is growing – number of providers both traditional (bricks and mortar) and online is increasing

• The private sector has experienced significant growth over the last decade

― In 2005 the private HE market was estimated to be worth more than $300 billion worldwide and growing (e.g. in the US by nearly 15%).

• The emergence of major global brands e.g. Kaplan, Study Group, Navitas (IBT)

– IBT only founded in 1994 now has a market cap of over $600 million

– Kaplan only a few years ago was the worst performing division of the Washington Post – it now turns over in excess of $1.3 billion and is its most profitable unit

Changing Market

Growth in the Private Sector

• The private sector is creating a much more aggressive and focused competitor.

• Private sector providers are fundamentally changing the landscape:

– Nimble

– Financially strong

– Marketing focused

– Controlling distribution channels and managing outcomes

• In Australia, private sector has an estimated 10% of higher education market

• New figures from Australian DEEWR reveal EFSTL of 34, 876 students studying higher education with private providers, which does not include state-registered private higher education providers

Changing Market

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Growth in the Private Sector

• In 2007 in Australia, the number of FEE-HELP approved private higher education providers rose 14% to 105.

• Large, international for profit education providers including Kaplan, Apollo, Laureate, and Cengage, are either active and present in New Zealand and Australia, or are currently looking at how they could enter the markets

• In Australia, private sector has an estimated 10% of higher education market

• New figures from Australian DEEWR reveal EFSTL of 34, 876 students studying higher education with private providers, which does not include state-registered private higher education providers

Changing Market

Changing Market

Competition is Growing Internationally

• More competitors – both at the country and institutional level

• New competitors are emerging

• Traditional source countries are now becoming providers:

– China; Malaysia

• While Australia was one of the first countries to recognise the importance of branding the destination, many competitors have now launched branding strategies. This is not constrained to just the MESDCs – but also emerging source countries.

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Student Inflows and Outflows

Changing Market

Emerging Trends in Student Mobility

• International student preferences and destinations are changing

• While the majority of students will still want to travel overseas for their entire education qualification, increasing numbers of students are satisfied with partial international study, obtaining only part of their degree overseas

• Traditional source countries are looking to bolster domestic provision of higher education, to enhance their status as educators and to strengthen their country’s economic and demographic positions

• Increased student mobility within East Asia also indicates a shift towards a stronger Asian influence in global international education student flows.

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Changing Market

Emerging Trends in Student Mobility

• Just under 80% of the participating institutions described themselves as “significantly” or “very active” in recruiting international students from East Asia

• The most common recruitment tools used by these institutions were exhibitions and inter-institutional arrangements. However, they are also using local in-country agents and online marketing

• The primary case study analysis also found positive current and projected growth in international East Asian student enrolments among participating institutions

• Approximately 40% projected either modest or significant growth in student enrolments from the East Asian region over the next five years

Most international

students still choose country first

Overall UK Aust

Country 46% 39% 48%

Course 29% 32% 27%

University 16% 17% 16%

City 7% 8% 6%

Don't know 3% 3% 2%

Sample size 519 155 364

What Factor Do Students Choose First?

‘Country’ remains the number one response amongst students

46%

29%

16%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Country

Course

University

City

Source: JWT Asian Student 2006 Study

Implication:

Building a destination brand remains important

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Changing Market

Implications

• The strong and growing private sector represents a change in dynamic in the education sector nationally and globally

• Identify opportunities to further partner with the private sector to leverage their strengths to your benefit

• The marketplace is increasingly global requiring institutions to clearly define their brand, identify competitive differences and promote them

• Competition is no longer the MESDCs but countries which have been primary sources of international students – how do you partner with them?

Changing Delivery The Internet

• The availability and enrollment in web-based distance learning has increased dramatically

– Led by for-profit organisations

• However, nonprofits are poised to become stronger competitors

• Growth of combined on-campus and online study programs

• The lines between online and on-campus education continue to blur as it becomes more and more important to provide students with options

• Potentially strong impact of rising oil/petrol prices on uptake of online education

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Changing Delivery

Implications

• Continued growth in online delivery

– Wireless technology helps e-learning initiatives "cut the cord."

– Governments deploy e-learning at all levels

– E-Learning cuts the cost of high quality content - by developing classrooms without walls, e-learning programs can reduce the costs of participation without negatively affecting the compensation for renowned lecturers, researchers, and presenters

• Application Service Providers offer more quick start options

– Providers that don't want to create their own can lease or purchase turnkey e-learning systems. As e-learning processes become more standardized, clients benefit from shared R&D, lower costs, and fast deployment. Even organizations on low budgets can implement open source e-learning platforms

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Significant growth in TNE

• There has been significant growth in the demand for and delivery of TNE over the last few years

• TNE is education provision from an institution located in one country that is offered outside of that country

• Examples include

– Distance learning and e-learning

– Stand alone campuses RMIT Vietnam

– Validation and franchising arrangements

– Twinning and other collaborative provision

Changing Delivery

Australian growth in TNE

Source: DEST

23,89128,066

38,783

56,261

64,020

0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Changing Delivery

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Growth in Demand for TNE

• Global demand for TNE education is predicted to continue increase significantly – by 2025 it’s expected it will be 440,000 – and by as early as 2010 outstrip demand for traditional onshore education

• Key reason is the large unsatisfied demand for higher education places in Asia (China, India, Hong Kong, Malaysia)

• Overseas governments encourage entry from foreign providers as a partial solution. However there are concerns with regard to quality. Many countries set up regulatory systems for foreign/private providers and some governments do not recognise qualifications that are delivered through “distance learning” or “e-learning”

Changing Delivery

UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman:

major hosts

UK: major source; emerging host

USA: major source; emerging host

C. America: hosts and sources

S. America: varying levels of hosts and sources

Australia (NZ): major source; emerging host

Emerging Hosts & Sources of TNE Programs

China & India: major

hosts, emerging sources

Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore: major hosts, emerging

sources

Central Asia: emerging host

Kenya &

Mauritius: emerging hosts

South Africa: declining host;

emerging source

Caribbean: emerging host

Russia: declining source;

emerging host

Canada: emerging host and source

© Observatory on Borderless Higher Education

France, Spain

Germany : hosts and sources

E. Europe: emerging hosts

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Changing DeliveryImplications

• It’s been suggested that TNE provision represents a threat to MESDC’s traditional international education market

• But it is also a potential threat to MESDC institutions’ domestic market e.g. Carnegie Mellon in Adelaide in Australia

• Huge global growth in demand represents a significant opportunity

• Challenge is identifying opportunities, managing the partnerships and the obvious risk

Branding Importance

Standing Out

• Market is more cluttered and competitive than ever before - students need help to:

– Make sense of its complexities

– Make important decisions about which learning destination and establishment in which to invest (time, effort, money)

• As more people go to university, the difference between individual qualifications will lie less in having a degree and far more in where the qualifications came from – both country and institution.

• Communicating the quality and value of the qualifications and the establishment awarding them in a compelling and believable manner will be fundamental in providing a sound basis on which to compete

• Need to build a strong brand

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Branding Importance

Standing Out

• Research shows the increasing role that a brand plays in a student’s choice of institution…..but also:

– Its ability to attract, recruit and retain quality staff both academic & professional;

– The outcomes of its students;

– Its ability to raise research and philanthropic funds;

– Its overall ranking; and

– Its profile/relationship within its local community

Implications

• Identifying and effectively communicating a strong brand will become increasingly important

Branding in the Future

� Increasingly important given the growing competition: Bricks & Mortar; Online; Consortium; Mega-Universities and the myriad of options

� Increasing privatisation of higher education: much more commercial, marketing focused

� Our target audiences are more discerning than ever, they think/act like customers

� In this increasingly cluttered environment defining and communicating a clearly differentiated brand will be critical

� In the knowledge economy there’s an opportunity for education brands to be built through inclusiveness and accessibility (not just exclusivity & inaccessibility)

� As choices proliferate in the higher education sector, particularly through technology-based programs, students will associate education with brands that signify strength in the areas they plan to develop expertise

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Challenges

� As marketers we can only control some components of the brand, yet it’s critical that we deliver on the promise

� Our budgets are tiny e.g. Microsoft spend $5 million a day on branding/marketing and expenditure on branding can be contentious

� Securing ‘buy-in’ from the internal community is critical, as they ultimately deliver on the brand

� Institutional leaders often feel there are significant barriers they must overcome before they can successfully build brands – internal resistance to change; difficulty in capturing the essence of theinstitution; lack of sector relevant examples; sub/brands

� Institutions have a large number and increasingly diverse targetaudiences, so while we need an overarching brand we may need to develop different value propositions to appeal to these different audiences

Skills ShortagesAustralia’s Labour Market

• The Australian labour market has changed significantly in recent times due, in part, to the sustained expansion of the economy over the past 14 years.

• The ageing of the population, rapid technological changes and increased competition have also played their part in dramatically changing the composition of the Australian labour force.

• The recent economic expansion has resulted in the considerable rise in the number of employed Australian people. Conversely unemployment levels, currently at five percent, are at their lowest for 30 years.

• The strength of the Australian labour market is expected to continue into the future and the demand for skills is generally high.

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Skills Shortages

Australia’s Workforce

• Employers are looking for a range of skilled workers in all states and territories, and across many trades and professions.

• Skills shortages for professionals are evident in a number of

sectors, including:

– The health sector; Accountancy; Child care; Engineering

– Solicitors; Building and other trades; and Resources

• These skills shortages are predicted to worsen as the baby boomers leave the market

• Resources e.g. to achieve currently predicted increases in output, the resources sector will need to employ 70,000 more workers than it currently employs by 2015 almost 42,000 will be required in WA

• Direct employment in WA in the resources sector was approximately 61,700 jobs in 2006; and

• Total employment in the resources sector amounted to approximately 20% of WA state employment;

Skills Shortages

Implications

• As the skills shortage worsen in the developed world employers will become increasingly aggressive in their strategies to attract, recruit and retain talent

• In this environment attracting domestic students will become increasingly challenging

• Identifying ways to partner with industry to address these challenges should deliver results

• War for talent in academic circles is going to worsen, identifying a strong employee value proposition will be critical

• Opportunities for international students to obtain PR as skilled migrants will increase

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