Emerging Trends in Distributed...
Transcript of Emerging Trends in Distributed...
Emerging Trends in Distributed Generation
Elton Hooper Global Marketing Manager – Siemens PG DG
siemens.com/power-gas © Siemens AG 2017 All rights reserved.
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Table of Content
• Power Generation – Origins and Growth
• Distributed Generation Technology Today
• 16 Years of Industrial Gas Turbine Sales: 3 – 66 MW Analysis
• Major Trends
• Growth of Market Segment
• Market Economic Drivers
• Siemens Response
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Today the world consumes over
20,900 TW-hours of electrical power
130 Years of Growth – The Modern Power Grid
The growth of the power industry and its related grid infrastructure has been driven over the last 130 years
• Industrialization • Urbanization • Increase in population
Electrification rate in 1933
94% Italy
68% US
79% Germany
21% Mexico
2% China
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Distributed Generation Technology Today
• Distributed Generation – Electrical power generation in close proximity to its point of use • Today there are various technologies involved in distributed power generation
Reciprocating Engines Industrial Gas Turbines Energy Storage Geothermal
Hydro Fuel Cell Wind Solar
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16 years of Distributed Generation Sales: 3 – 66 MW Gas Turbine Units1
0
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 Power generation only
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16 years of Distributed Generation Sales: 3 – 66 MW Gas Turbine Units1
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CAGR2: -10.7% CAGR: 10% CAGR: -5.5%
1 Power generation only 2 Compound annual growth rate
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40 – 70 MW IGT Sales have shown moderate growth over the last 6 years at ~5% CAGR
40 – 70 MW IGT Sales into Combined Cycle service show decline from 2011 level but recent uptick puts growth at ~8% since 2010
Major Trends 40 – 66 MW in Industrial Power Generation
020406080
100120140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
1020304050607080
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
40 – 66 MW IGT1 Sales 40 – 66 MW CC IGT2 Sales
1 Industrial Gas Turbine 2 Combined Cycle Industrial Gas Turbine
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Major Trends 20 – 50 MW in Industrial Power Generation
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20
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50
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70
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
20 – 50 MW IGT Unit Sales
One of the biggest shifts in the Distributed Power Generation Market. The 20 – 50 MW segment of land based, permanently installed, CHP & Industrial simple cycle generation has contracted at rate of -21% the period 2010 – 2015 with slight recovery in 2016. N
umbe
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Major Trend – Mobile / Fast Track Power
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20
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50
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile IGT Unit Sales
The Mobile IGT Market has shown tremendous growth of 20+% CAGR in the last six years. The dramatic increase in IGT Sales in this emerging segment was driven by the need for power on very expedited or “fast track” basis. The requirement: Minimum time between contract signature and Power.
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Regional Trend – Location of Mobile Gas Turbine Fleet
Latin America Middle East and Africa
Asia Pacific
North America Europe
… in which most of the Sales of Mobile Gas Turbine gensets have happened
The 3 Regions …
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• Pre-2006 mostly a rental market with intermittent spot sales • Global need for “Fast Power” began to ramp-up in 2008 • Trend continued through 2011 driven by expanding electrification in
developing nations, gaps in infrastructure planning and natural disasters
Growth of Mobile Gas Turbine Power Market
20151
70
2014
67
2013
83
2012
23
2011
61
2010
22
2009
23
2008
39
2007
23
2001
4
2000
26
1999
4
2002
3 13
2003
15
2004
2
2005
42
2006
6.4% CAGR since 2000
13.1% CAGR since 2007
21.2% CAGR in the last 4 years
Mobile Gas Turbine Sales
The need to deliver fast cycle power generation capacity now is and continues to be one of the fastest growing segments in 20 – 40 MW Industrial Power Generation (~$ 1.0 bn in 2015)
1 Mobile represented 40% of total 20 – 40MW IPG market in FY’15
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Macro-economic Driver #1 – High GDP Growth Rates
• Many countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia have the highest GDP1 growth rates in the world
• This increasing economic activity creates demand for electrical power to drive Industry
• Governments and private enterprise is responding to the need
• Industrialization and growth are co-dependent
• The urgent power needs of expanding Industry drive the demand for quick delivery and fast implementation
Annual percent change 10% or more 6% – 10% 3% – 6% 0% – 3% Less than 0% No data 1 Gross domestic product
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Macro-economic Driver #2 – High Population Growth Rates
• Latin America, Africa & Asia have the highest population growth rates in the world
• They also have the highest urbanization growth rates
• Governments and private enterprise is responding to the need
• As more people move from rural areas into city centers higher demand for electric power follows
• Urbanization and industrialization is what lifted China from a 2% electrification rate in 1933 to the worlds largest consumer of electrical power today
Growth Rate ≤-0.51% -0.50 to -0.01 0.00 to 0.99 1.00 to 1.99 ≥2.00 2010 population too small to reliably compute growth rate Source: The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010 – 2050; Pew Research Center
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Macro-economic Driver #3 – Low Electrification Rates
• Latin America, Africa, and S.E Asia have the lowest Electrification Rates in the world
• Demand exists out of necessity
% of People with access to Electricity High (66 – 100%) Medium (33 – 66%) Low (0 – 33%)
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The Gap between Supply vs. Need drives the Fast Power Market
Large portions of the world are dark.
16% (1.2 billion people) of the global population do not have access to electricity
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Siemens Response – The Fast Power Initiative
Goal #1 Enter Fast Power Mobile Power Generation market with a differentiated offering
SGT-A45 TR, a mobile gas turbine package specifically designed for this emerging need within Distributed Generation
Contract to Power – 3 months!
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Siemens Response – The Fast Power Initiative
SGT-A45 TR Mobile Unit
44 MWe
SGT-A45 TR
Derived from Industrial Trent
45 MW class
Aero- derivative
Siemens Gas Turbine
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SGT-A45 TR Mobile Unit – Fast Power. Superior Performance. Trusted technology.
Key benefits 44 MWe (ISO) – highest power density
2-weeks installation
Delivered by road, air or sea
Performance optimized for hot climates
50 Hz or 60 Hz
Liquid and gas fuel
Emissions as low as 25 vppm NOx
Proven turbomachinery
Minimal site interfaces and preparation
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SGT-A45 TR Mobile Unit – Typical 3-trailers Layout
• Gas Turbine • GT lube oil (synthetic) • Air inlet silencer • GT enclosure ventilation • Fire protection • Gas Fuel metering • Liquid fuel/water metering • Water wash • Air-blast cooler (GT oil)
Trailer # 2
• Air filter • Exhaust stack • GT bleed air silencer
Non-trailerized (ship loose)
• A/C generator • Generator lube oil • Generator cooler
Trailer # 1
• Switchgear • Unit Control Panel (UCP) • Motor Control Centre (MCC) • UPS • Aux transformer • Purge air cooler • Instrument air compressor
Trailer # 3
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Contact page
Elton Hooper Global Marketing Manager Siemens PG DG
1200 West Sam Houston Parkway Houston, TX USA
Phone: 1-713-253-5492 E-mail: [email protected]
siemens.com/power-gas
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Disclaimer
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