Emerging Powers and Global Governancecuts-international.org/30thAnniversaryLectures/pdf/... · 419...

Emerging Powers and

Global Governance

Rakesh Mohan Executive Director

International Monetary Fund

9th CUTS 30th Anniversary Lecture September 23, 2013

Washington DC

Emerging Powers and Global Governance

I. Background: A Historical View II. Evolution of Global Economic Policy III. Growth of Emerging Markets IV. Changes in Global Economic

Governance

2 Sep 23, 2013 Rakesh Mohan / IMF

Long-term Growth Overview: Per capita income (USA relative to Select Economies)

Source: Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013). The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.

0

5

10

15

20

25

1800 1950 2000 2010

India China Asia Latin America


Asian Tigers: Per capita income (USA relative to Select Economies)

Source: Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013). The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Hong Kong Singapore Japan Taiwan S. Korea


China and India: Recent Growth Indicators

1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 CHINA Per capita income (PPP $) 251 796 2379 7553 16231 GDP-PPP (US $ billion) 248 910 3015 10128 22641 GDP-PPP (% of US) 9 16 30 70 107 Growth Rate (Decadal average, %) 7.4 9.8 10.0 10.3 Openness (Exports of goods and services, % to GDP) 10.6 16.1 23.3 30.6 INDIA Per capita income (PPP $) 419 883 1534 3378 5834 GDP-PPP (US $ billion) 286 745 1571 4022 7718 GDP-PPP (% of US) 10 13 16 28 37 Growth Rate (Decadal average, %) 2.9 5.7 5.7 6.9 Openness (Exports of goods and services, % to GDP) 6.0 6.9 12.8 21.9

Source: World Economic Outlook Database (April 2013), IMF; and WDI, World Bank.


Gross domestic product based on PPP: Share of world total (%)

64.2 62.8

50.1

44.9

35.8 37.2

49.9

55.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1992 2000 2012 2018

AEs EDEs

51.3 48.8

37.8 33.8

15.3 17.1

27.1

31.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1992 2000 2012 2018

G7 BRICS

Continuous increase in EDEs and BRICS share in world GDP; EDEs share now equals AEs. And, EDE shares expected to continue increasing … Source: World Economic Outlook Database (April 2013), IMF.


Per capita GDP (based on PPP) ($)

20,100

27,778

40,390

50,622

2,293 3,148 7,020

10,292

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990 2000 2012 2018

AEs EDEs

21,648

29,694

42,119

52,522

1,782 2,724

7,593

12,184

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1990 2000 2012 2018

G7 BRICS

…. Given their still low income levels. Source: World Economic Outlook Database (April 2013), IMF.




Governance


Industry, value added (% to total)

64% 9%

27%

1990

G7 BRICS Rest of World

43%

20%

37%

2008

G7 BRICS Rest of World

Source: World Developments Indicators Online, World Bank.


Industry, value added (US$ billion)

4353

7155

651

3456

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 2008

G7 BRICS



Exports of goods and services (% to total)

50%

6%

44%

1990

G7

BRICS

Rest of World

33%

17%

50%

2011

G7

BRICS

Rest of World



Exports of goods and services (US$ billion)

2173

7510

239

3732

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 2011

G7 BRICS



World Metals Consumption (million tons)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000

M1

2000

M5

2000

M9

2001

M1

2001

M5

2001

M9

2002

M1

2002

M5

2002

M9

2003

M1

2003

M5

2003

M9

2004

M1

2004

M5

2004

M9

2005

M1

2005

M5

2005

M9

2006

M1

2006

M5

2006

M9

2007

M1

2007

M5

2007

M9

2008

M1

2008

M5

2008

M9

2009

M1

2009

M5

2009

M9

2010

M1

2010

M5

2010

M9

2011

M1

2011

M5

2011

M9

2012

M1

2012

M5

2012

M9

China Rest of world

Source: World Economic Outlook (April 2013), IMF.


Mobile cellular subscriptions (% to total)

69%

6%

25%

1995

G7

BRICS

Rest of World

13%

41%

46%

2011

G7

BRICS

Rest of World



Mobile cellular subscriptions (Millions)

63

797

6

2445

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995 2011

G7 BRICS



Population (% to total)

13%

47%

40%

1990

G7 BRICS Others

10%

42%

48%

2018

G7 BRICS Others

Source: World Economic Outlook Database (April 2013), IMF.


Demographics: Ages 15-64 years: Shares in total (%)

63.0

67.4

61.9

64.0

58.4

64.9

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

World More developed regions Less developed regions

2000 2050

…. Given their demographic profile in favor of working age population. Source: World Population to 2300, United Nations.




Governance


IMF Quota Shares (%): Top Holders

Source: IFS, IMF.

1950 1980 2000 2012 1 US 32.0 US 21.2 US 17.6 US 17.7 2 UK 15.1 UK 7.4 Japan 6.3 Japan 6.6 3 Taiwan 6.4 Germany 5.4 Germany 6.2 Germany 6.1 4 France 6.1 France 4.8 France 5.1 France 4.5 5 India 4.7 Japan 4.2 UK 5.1 UK 4.5 6 Canada 3.5 Canada 3.4 Italy 3.3 China 4.0 7 Netherlands 3.2 Italy 3.1 Saudi Arabia 3.3 Italy 3.3 8 Belgium 2.6 China 3.0 Canada 3.0 Saudi Arabia 2.9 9 Australia 2.3 India 2.9 Russia 2.8 Canada 2.7 10 Italy 2.1 Netherlands 2.4 Netherlands 2.4 Russia 2.5 11 Brazil 1.7 Belgium 2.2 China 2.2 India 2.4 12 South Africa 1.2 Australia 2.0 Belgium 2.2 Netherlands 2.2 13 Mexico 1.0 Saudi Arabia 1.7 India 2.0 Belgium 1.9


IMF Quota Shares (%) : Historical

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1948 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Share in Quotas: AE Share in GDP-MER: AE Share in GDP-PPP: AE

Share in Quotas: EDE Share in GDP-MER: EDE Share in GDP-PPP: EDE

Source: IFS, IMF.


IMF Quota Shares (%): Recent Reforms

61.6 60.5 57.6

38.4 39.5 42.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2008 Reforms 2011 Reforms/14th

Review (yet to be implemented)

AEs EDEs

46.0 45.4 43.4

10.0 11.5 14.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2008 Reforms 2011 Reforms/14th

Review (yet to be implemented)

G7 BRICS

But, only modest increase in EDEs and BRICS share in quotas in IFIs. Source: IMF.


GDP and Quota Shares (%)

50.1 49.9

60.5

39.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

AEs EDEs

2012 GDP Share 2012 Quota Share

37.8

27.1

45.4

11.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

G7 BRICS

2012 GDP Share 2012 Quota Share

EDEs and BRICS share in quotas well-below their GDP shares Source: IMF.


Long-term GDP Projections: GDP at 2005 PPP (USD billion)

1362

9 2123

0

3882

0

1078

7

3326

3

6621

1

4147

1330

1

4338

0

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2012 2030 2060

US China India 27

353 39

721

6828

5

1972

6

5572

4

1252

12

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2012 2030 2060

G7 BRICS

Source: Economic Outlook No 91 - Long-term baseline projections Dataset, OECD (June 2012).


Long-term GDP Projections: GDP at 2005 PPP (% to World GDP)

Source: Economic Outlook No 91 - Long-term baseline projections Dataset, OECD (June 2012).

22.5

17.8 16.3

17.8

27.9 27.8

6.8

11.1

18.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2030 2060

US China India

45.2

33.3

28.7

32.6

46.7

52.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2030 2060

G7 BRICS


G7 and G20 Economies

G7 Countries • Canada • France • Germany • Italy • Japan • UK • US

G20 Countries • G7 plus • Argentina • Australia • Brazil • China • India • Indonesia • Korea • Mexico • Russia • Saudi Arabia • South Africa • Turkey


THANKS


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