Emerging IPv6 Trends in Next Generation Networks · Emerging IPv6 Trends in Next Generation...

1© 2002, Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

Emerging IPv6 Trends in Next Generation Networks

Tony Bates Routing Technologies Group

Cisco Systems, San Jose, California

April 13, 2004Key note at Global IPv6 Summit, Beijing


Agenda• Service Providers Trends

– Broadband Internet TrendsRole of IPv6 in Broadband Internet

– Mobile Internet TrendsRole of IPv6 in Mobile Internet

• NREN TrendsRole of IPv6 in Grid networks

• Defense and Home Land SecurityRole of IPv6 in Home Land Security

• Evolution towards Ubiquitous Networking


Cisco’s Network Vision Fusing the Best of Today’s Networks and More

Reliability of the PSTN

Capacity of an Optical Network

Simplicityof Ethernet

Ubiquity of the

InternetNext Generation Network

Next Generation Network

Content Richness of

TelevisionMobility of the Wireless Network

Security of a PrivateNetwork


Evolution towards Ubiquitous Networking: Future of Broadband and Mobile

2000 2002-2004 2005-2007

Traditional NetworkTraditional Network

Disparate NetworksDisparate Networks-- DisparateDisparate PSTN and IP PSTN and IP

networknetwork--Emergence of Emergence of VoIPVoIP

--Start of Start of VoIPVoIP communicommuni--cationcation eraera

Availability and Flexibility of

Availability and Flexibility of C

omm

nC

omm

n ., .,

Ubiquity of Ubiquity of NetworksNetworks−− IP based MultiIP based Multi--service service networks networks -- Integration of Integration of Voice and data networks Voice and data networks (both (both WirelineWireline and and wireless)wireless)

Network ConvergenceNetwork Convergence

−− Start of Start of Multiservice Multiservice Broadband packet based Broadband packet based networksnetworks

Ubiquity of Ubiquity of CommuCommu--nicationnication/services/services-- Real time communicationReal time communicationBased on SIPBased on SIP-- Unified MessagingUnified Messaging-- Find me, Follow me Find me, Follow me CommunicationCommunication-- Intelligent TerminalsIntelligent Terminals

-- Introduction of IP MultiIntroduction of IP Multi--Media Systems (IMS) to Media Systems (IMS) to 3G/4G3G/4G-- IPv6IPv6

Communication Communication ConvergenceConvergence


Broadband Internet Trends


Broadband Around the World

North America:North America:26M+ subscribers26M+ subscribersCable modem leadsCable modem leads150K FTTH subs.,150K FTTH subs.,

Europe:Europe:18M+ subscribers18M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads300K FTTH subs.,300K FTTH subs.,

CALA:CALA:1.7M+ subscribers1.7M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads

Australasia:Australasia:35M+ subscribers35M+ subscribersDSL leadsDSL leads800k FTTH subs. 800k FTTH subs. (Japan Mainly)(Japan Mainly)

Source: RHK, Corning, Point topic Q2CY2003Source: RHK, Corning, Point topic Q2CY2003


Japanese Broadband market growth

7.4

10.910.1 10.0

11.1

2

Mar20

00Ju

n Sep Dec

BB in total DSL FTTH CATV ISDN

millionMonthly growth rate:Monthly growth rate:FTTH exceeds ADSLFTTH exceeds ADSL

Mar20

01Ju

n Sep DecMar

2002

Jun Sep Dec

Mar20

03Ju

n Dec.0

4

6

8

10

12

14

Synchronizing with Synchronizing with ADSL upward trend, ADSL upward trend, ISDN starts to declineISDN starts to decline

0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.82.8

3.95.0

6.1

7.89.4

11.113.2

ISDN

ADSL

FTTH

CATV

Source: Statistics from Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications Exceeded 13 millions in total in Dec. 2003


Projections for Japan’s Broadband Market - Service ContentsThe broadband markets in Japan projected to expand to approx. 4 trillion Yen by fiscal 2007, with broadband communications representing 2.4 trillion Yen.

100 Mil. yen

Year2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

10,000

12,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

12,000

7,900

4,400

1600300

2006

16,000

2007

21,000

14,000

16,000

21,000

18,000

BB communicationse LearningASP Service

Year2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

10,000

12,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

12,000

7,000

3,000

66090

2006

15,000

2007

19,000

14,000

16,000

20,000

18,000

Consumer Market Business Market100 Mil. yen

Other (ASP, electronic publishing, electronic government)

Tele-medicineSoftware downloadsMotion picture deliveryMusic downloadsNet gamese-LearningBB communications

Source: EC Research.


Broadband Access Market projection in Japan

30 220

2,410

4,860

8,990

11,490

14,090

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2001 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E

1,000 Subs

FTTH Subscribers

2,380

6,300

10,680

14,42015,390 14,940

13,950

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2001 2002 2003 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E

ADSL Subscribers

1,000 Subs

Source: InfoCom Research, Inc.


IPv6 Based FTTH and ADSL Deployment Scenario

ADSL

FTTH 100M

STB

Modem

M/C

M/C

IPv6 Core

CoreGigE

Channel

GigE

FE/GigE

ADSL DSLAMModem

GigEChannel

10GigE

L2 AggregrationIPv6 Core

OC-48/192POS/10GigE

OC-48/192POS/10GigE

OC-48/192POS/10GigE

L2 Aggregration

ONU

DSLAMAccess

GigEChannel

M/C

FTTH 100M

Applications: Internet Access, VoiceContent – VoD, Digital TV, On line gaming


IPv6 based Broadband Internet Deployments by Japanese SPs

• Japan Telecom adds SLAs to its IPv6 servicehttp://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/1226_japan-telecom.shtml

• NTT-East to start IPv6 servicehttp://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/1219_ntt-east.shtml

• NTT Com to offer its dual stack service nationwide – 03/13/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0313_ntt.shtml

• NTT Unveils Next-Generation Services Based on New IP Networking Infrastructure http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/frm/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/news/219314"the investment will not exceed 500 billion yen in the coming five years," Wada”, NTT President added.

• New strategy of NTT Communications includes IPv6 – 03/18/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0318_nttcom.shtml

• Nifty begins ADSL dual stack service – 03/17/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0317_nifty.shtml

• KDDI IPv6 trial includes mobile dual stack service – 03/17/2003 http://www.ipv6style.jp/en/news/2003/0317_kddi.shtml

• IPv6 Emerges as Key Part of NTT Com's Global Strategy, Company Exec. VP Says, Oct. 2002; http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/frm/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/intvw/213315

• And many more…..

http://www.nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com/wcs/frm/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/news/219314


Mobile Internet Trends


Evolution of Wireless Networking

FixedData

MobileVoice

Mobility with

NetworkConnectivity

(Data + Voice)

Past Paradigms Present Demand

“3G” WCDMALicensed Bands

WLANUnlicensed Bands

• Personal mobility• High data rate• Incremental infrastructure

• Full mobility• Modest data rate• All new infrastructure

Local Area- On campus- At home

Wide Area- On the road


WLANs and Mobile Services

10 Mbps

100 kbps

100 Mbps

Range

Mobile Speed

Peak

Data Rate

BlueTooth

2.4GHz

802.11b

2.4GHz Unlicensed

802.11a

5.5GHz Unlicensed

2.5/3G Wireless

~2GHz

High Performance/price

High ubiquity and mobility

9.6

28.8

64

114

144

384

2000

2400

GSM/PDC

PDC-P

CDMA

GPRS

CDMA1xRTT

W-CDMAmoving

W-CDMAstationary

CDMA1xEV/DO

Theoretical data

transmission speedkbps

1 Mbps

10 feet

2 mph

100 feet

10 mph

1 mile

30 mph

10 miles

60 mph


Key Worldwide Mobile Operators by Technology

Europe: VodafoneT-mobilemmO2TelefonicaHutchinsonOrangeTIM

VerizonSprint PCS ATT WirelessCingular

Asia:NTT DoCoMoKDDIJTChina Mobile

33G Migration Strategy:G Migration Strategy:GSM/PDC GSM/PDC --> WCDMA> WCDMACDMA CDMA --> CDMA2000> CDMA2000

3G Subscribers in Japan:• KDDI 3G CDMA 1X: 9.5Million Subs. by Aug. 03• DoCoMo’s 3G FOMA over 500,000 by June 2003• J-Phone over 44,000 by May 2003

CDMA contributes to this dramaticCDMA contributes to this dramaticMobile subscribers growthMobile subscribers growth


Public WLAN Market Opportunity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ m

illio

n

Rest of WorldAsia PacificWestern EuropeNorth America

Global PWLAN Hotspot Revenues

Source: Ovum, Jan. 2003

• New service opportunity• Low rollout costs• Value-added service

Higher ARPU & increased customer retention

Source: Gartner, Worldwide Locatio

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

HotSpots 12000 29000 82000 143000 210000 307000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Dec 200271000 133000 152000 154000 1610015000Revised May 2003


Mobile Internet Demand: Penetration and Revenue

81.0%

45.0%

7.4%

4.8%

2.9%

1.4%

1.2%

Japan

Korea(Rep.)

Singapore

Australia

Taiwan

NewZealand

HK

Mobile phone Internet

subscribers as % of total

mobile subscribers,

2002

Subscribers browsing the Internet from their mobile phone

19.3%

13.0%

10.6%

10.0%

5.0%

2.9%

2.5%

Japan

Singapore

Korea(Rep.)

Australia

NewZealand

Taiwan

HK

Mobile data service as percent of total

mobile revenue, 2002

Source: ITU adapted from various sources


Step-by-step migration towards all IPv6 based Mobile network

GPRS GTP (encapsulation)

UE GPRS data bearer

IP RAN

RNC

SGSN

GGSN

IPIP PDN

ATM IP ATM IP

R5 IMSNode B

MGW

MSC-S

IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) data

R5 IP UTRAN (transport)


IPv6 Based Mobile Wireless Networking

WEBRASKA

Réseau Lab. DPR

Portail

Internet

GPRS Orange

WGB Wifi

ModemGPRS

AP Wifi

FT Router (PAT)

FT ADSL Modem

TCU

GPS

MRIPv4IPv4

IPv4

IPv4

IPv4

IPv4

IPv4/IPv6

IPv4

IPv6IPv4 IPv6

MIPv6 in GPRS v4 Tunnel

MIPv6 through 802.11b

IPv4HA

PC

IPv6IPv6

Telematics:Industry related to using

computers in concert with telecommunications systems.

This includes Internet access, as well as all types of networks that

rely on a telecommunications system to transport data.

“Telematics to Become $8 Billion Industry by 2005,

According to New Study from Allied Business Intelligence”

http://www.telematicsupdate.com


IPv6 Networks in Motion SolutionsMobile Router & Home Agent


NREN Trends


NRENsNRENs –– GRID Applications GRID Applications GRIDs address the needs

of virtual communities and fosters the efficient exploitation of the huge investments in research infrastructures:

• High Energy Physics• Earth & Space

Observation• Environment• Bio-sciences and

Health• Industrial

design/simulation/ visualization

Physical Organization

Physical Organization

Physical OrganizationPhysical

OrganizationVirtual Organization

Virtual Organization

VirtualOrganization

Virtual Organization

View of Deployment


Tier0/1 facility

Tier2 facility

10 Gbps link

2.5 Gbps link

622 Mbps link

Other link

Tier3 facility

Cambridge

Newcastle

Edinburgh

Oxford

Glasgow

Manchester

Cardiff

Soton

London

Belfast

DL

RAL Hinxton

ExampleScience Grids


Projected Adoption Timelines for DoD

Source: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TFSource: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TF


IPv6 Based DISA Network

Source: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TFSource: Capt. R.V Dixon, DISA, Natv6TF


Future Trends in Information and Communication Technology

High SpeedHigh Speed(in quantity)(in quantity)

Core network: Tb/sCore network: Tb/sAccess: 1Gb/sAccess: 1Gb/sWireless: 100Mb/sWireless: 100Mb/sMemory: 50GBMemory: 50GB

Core network: 100s Tb/sCore network: 100s Tb/sAccess: 10Gb/sAccess: 10Gb/sWireless: 1Gb/sWireless: 1Gb/sMemory: 100GBMemory: 100GB

3 3 years from now 5 years from nowyears from now 5 years from now

AdvancedAdvanced(more reality)(more reality)

Quality GuaranteeQuality GuaranteeRealReal--time endtime end--toto--end end communicationcommunication

Intelligent InterfaceIntelligent InterfaceAutonomous Distributed Autonomous Distributed NetworkNetwork

SeamlessSeamless(Any where)(Any where)

SeemlessSeemless service within an service within an Operator (Wired/Wireless)Operator (Wired/Wireless) SeemlessSeemless service betweenservice between

Operators (wired/wireless)Operators (wired/wireless)

UbiquitousUbiquitous(Any thing)(Any thing)

Diversified TerminalsDiversified Terminals(Non(Non--PC terminal, PC terminal, Home Gateway)Home Gateway)

Wide spread use of wireless Wide spread use of wireless Tags (Tags (RFIDsRFIDs))

High High SecuritySecurity(No Anxiety)(No Anxiety)

High performance High performance Security and authenticationSecurity and authenticationFor heterogeneous networksFor heterogeneous networks

Automatic Restoration Automatic Restoration type defensetype defenseTracking information Tracking information sourcesource


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