Emergent Ventures India

Key Technology Drivers in SolarPV resulting in Costs Reduction and Land Use OptimizationSatyendra KUMAR

Partnership to Advance Clean Energy – Deployment (PACE-D)

Technical Assistance Program

Date: September 15, 2015 Venue: Tapti Hall, Shangri-La, Ashoka Road,

Connaught Place, New DelhiTime: 9.00 AM – 4.30 PM

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What is happening Globally ?

EPIA had not considered India’s 100 GW !

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India to be in top 5 solar markets

Making of a Solar PV Power Plant

Project

Developme

nt

• Land – Solar resource assessment and feasibility• PPA – revenue model• Power Evacuation• License and Approvals

EPC

• Project Specification and Tendering• Selection of EPC• Project Management

O&M

• Site and Plant Management• Contract / Guarantee management• Plant Performance – monitoring, analytics and upkeep• PPA – collection of revenue

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Cost and Tariffs

Rs/Wp(Cost of: equipment, land, manpower, capital and soft costs)

&

Rs/kWhLCOE: (Rs/Wp, Solar Radiation, O&M, plant lifetime)

Tariff: (LCOE + expected returns)

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Typical Cost Chart for a Large Solar PV Power Plant

As the prices of Modules and Components Fallen, Land starts showing up in the cost pie.

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Land Use Optimization

• Increase Rs/kWh

- Use of Trackers

- More Efficient Solar Technology (c-Si – Mono/Multi, Thin Films,

next Gen…)

• Mixed use of Land

– Roof Top Solar (Factories and Residences)

– Agriculture, Acquaculture

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PV Technology – Shipment (not installed capacity)

Source: IDTechEx and SPV Market Research report "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments: Capacity, Production, Prices and Revenues to 2019“, (Published, 2015)

About 92% of the total module shipment last year were based on crystalline silicon

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Price Trend in last 4 years

Courtesy: Bikash Kumar, Saurya EnerTech

Do module prices always go down ?

1011

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Rs/Wp : Materials ( and Capital)

• Silicon (Energy)

• Wafers (Slurry, Wire)

• Cells (Gases, Wet Chemicals, Silver paste, Aluminum pastes)

• Modules (Glass, Encapsulants, Backsheet, Energy, Copper)

• Inverters, Transformers, Cables (Copper, Aluminum, steel)

• Module Mounting Structures (steel, cement)

Premium on technology is already gone !

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Typical Cell Efficiency Roadmap (Yingli) – Getting more Wp

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Module Cost Reduction Potential

Source: PV Technology and Cost Outlook, 2013-2017, GTM

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Solar PV Project Cost Trends: International Experience

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Cost Reduction of last decade has taken its toll on several solar companies globally

Yes and No:

Solar PV companies are closing down (2011-12 data): Many small as well as big solar companies have closed down, filed for bankruptcies or reduced operations across the globe, mainly in US and Germany

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Cost Reduction in Last Decade

• Scale & Manufacturing Excellence – whole PV value

chain (polysilicon, wafering, cells, modules) and

inverters

• EPC Learning

• Commodity Driven – impact of material costs,

currency, local labor costs,

• Now Cost of capital drives Rs/kWh

PV Challenge: What Next

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Key Drivers for Cost Reduction in Long Term

Fraunhofer-ISE Study - 2015

Increase in module efficiency has most important effect on cost reduction roadmapInvestments in Technology will begin again - $/Wp

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Summary

• Rs/kWh is the right metric to understand solar technology instead of Rs/Wp

• Current cost reduction is driven by learning and scale. Equipment cost is getting linked to commodity pricing

• There is still some room left on the current path reduction. Access and cost of capital are key drivers

• Further investments in PV technology is needed to avoid the inflation trap (manpower and commodities!)

Implementation Services

Wind Energy

Solar Energy

Wind Resource Assessments

Technology & Project Assessments

Owner’s Engineering Support

Integrated Development Services

Feasibility studies Contracting & Project

execution Support

• Project Feasibility Studies• Project Management

Service• Rooftop and off-grid

installation• System & Inverter Testing

Implementation Services

We provide wind project advisory though our subsidiary WinDForce Management Services Pvt. Ltd.

About EVI EVI Services Global Presence Clients

EVI launched its advisory business in the year 2004 and founded WinDForce Management Services in 2008. IDFC Private Equity invested in EVI in 2008.

Em

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EVI

Global firm with consulting

experience in more than 24 countries including Bhutan, India, Indonesia,

Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Mauritius, Malaysia, Mexico

Singapore, Thailand and USA

Team of 80+ qualified &

experienced professionals (250+

person years of renewables and climate policy

experience). Highly recognized in the

market as a technically strong

firm

Clients include Governments, UN Organizations, Donor Agencies, NGOs and Corporates in Oil & Gas, Utility, Cement, Steel, Pharma, Hospitality, Aviation, Financial, Food & Beverage sectors including companies in fortune 500 list

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