Emergency Preparedness - State of the Art -

David Alexander University College London

Plan of this lesson:-

• organisation of the sector

• information in emergencies

• humanitarian relief.

Objective: to examine trends and developments in emergency management with respect to....

• counter-terrorism

Organisation

Resilie

nce

Synonyms and approximations

Disaster risk reduction

Incident management

Population (community) protection

Plans, procedures, protocols

Human and material resources

Hazard forecasting, monitoring,

etc.

Knowledge of community

vulnerability

Knowledge of hazards and their impacts

Knowledge of coping

capacity and resilience

Disaster Risk

Reduction

DRR

Catastrophe

Disaster

Major incident

Incident

...but there are no quantitative definitions...

International

National

Regional

Municipal

Some characteristics of large emergencies

• the context of risk and vulnerability

can transform an incident into a disaster.

• 10% require a qualitative change

in management techniques

• 90% of emergencies do not

require special procedures

• events that cannot be managed

with normal resources

Hazard monitoring & forecasting

Population (community) protection

Disaster management

Major incident

management

Incident management

Policies Plans

Procedures Protocols

Human & material resources

Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents

Major incidents

Disasters Catastrophes

Impact Very

localised Generally localised

Widespread and severe

Extremely large

Response Local

efforts Some mutual assistance

Inter- governmental

response

Major international

response

Plans and procedures

Standard operating

procedures

Emergency plans

activated

Emergency plans fully activated

Plans potentially

overwhelmed

Resources Local

resources Some outside

assistance

Interregional transfer of resources

Local resources

overwhelmed

Public involvement

Very little involvement

Mainly not involved

Public very involved

Extensively involved

Recovery Very few challenges

Few challenges

Major challenges

Massive challenges

Local incident Local response A

Threshold of local capacity

Small regional

incident Co-ordinated local response B

Threshold of intermunicipal capacity

Major regional

incident

Intermunicipal and

regional response B

Threshold of regional capacity

National disaster

Intermunicipal, regional

and national response C

Threshold of national capacity

International

catastrophe

Ditto, with more

international assistance C

Volontary sector:

support and integration

Private sector:

integration

Disaster

Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations

Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance

Nation: policies of compatibility, harmonisation

and co-ordination

International: exchange and support

A hierarchy of emergency

plans

Micro- emergency

Disaster or catastrophe

Macro- emergency

Meso- emergency

Single municipality

Several municipalities

Regional coordination

National coordination

Emergency preparedness has reached a crossroads....

A new class

of disaster?

Forms of disaster

Natural: earthquakes,

floods, landslides, etc.

Social: riots, mass gatherings,

demonstrations

Intentional: acts of

terrorism

Technological: toxic spills,

transportation crashes, etc.

"Homeland security"

"Civil contingencies" management

Business continuity

management Complex emergencies

Civil protection

The security industry

Emergencies and disasters

Homeland security:

is reduction in civil liberties

acceptable?

What relationship of business continuity

management with civil

authorities?

Complex emergencies: How much aid from donor countries?

Civil protection: what degree of political support?

What role for the security industry in the general emergency?

What are the limits of civil contingencies management?

Emergencies and disasters

Natural disasters

Techno- logical

disasters

Social disasters

Inten- tional

disasters

Natural Anthropogenic

Civil defence

Civil contingencies and Resilience

Civil protection

"Homeland Security"

Private sector

businesses

Volunteer organisations

Privatised public

services

Government

Military assistance to civilian

communities

Civil Defence

Civil Protection

Business continuity

management

CRISIS

OPERATIONS (ACHIEVEMENTS) REPUTATION

Perception

Communication

Concrete developments • positive • negative

Civil contingencies

Resilience

management

The risk environment

Business continuity

Civil protection

Civil defence

Paramilitary forces (National Guard)

Military forces

Police forces

Fire brigades

Public administrations

Civilian volunteer forces

PMF

MF

FB PA

CVF

PF

Italy

PMF

MF

FB PA

CVF

PF

UK

CVF

PMF

MF

FB PA

PF

USA

Military Civilian

Armed Civil administration forces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services

(army) [residual role] Civil defence Civil protection

Command and control Co-ordination and co-operation Chain of command Autonomy

Some links

Effects of

technology on vulnerability to

natural disasters

Effects of natural disasters on

technological capital

Natural disasters

Social disasters

Technological disasters

Social conditions as factors that

incubate

dissidence

Tech

nologica

l

compo

nent

of a

cts

of

terr

orism

Intentional disasters

Counter terrorism

• the age of CBRN?

• civil protection with a more restricted scope?

• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations

• the resurgence of civil defence

• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".

Homeland security

About 2000 US universities have opened centres for the study of terrorism, bioterrorism, CBRN or similar subjects

However, the US Federal Government has not reduced the number of declarations of natural disaster or states of emergency from the 45-75 per year that was the average before 11 September 2001.

Creation of the Department of Homeland Security was the greatest reorganisation of the US Federal Government since 1947

From 1980 to 1998 in the USA there were 455 Presidential

declarations of disaster as a result of hurricanes, floods and earthquakes.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e., piloted)

• it is potentially infinitely mutable

• designing remedies is a very expensive process

• the scenarios are highly debatable.

EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyo attack in the Toyko subway with the nerve gas Sarin (1995):

• 12 dead

• 4900 people went to hospital, of whom...

• about 1000 were genuinely injured

• ...about 3900 were suffering from MIPS - multiple ideopathic physical symptoms: i.e., hypochondria.

The principal effect of terrorism on the

general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of

normal daily life...

...with huge costs to society.

In the case of an attack with chemical weapons these aspects of decontamination protocols are highly debatable:

• the chemical agents employed to neutralise toxic substances

• the question of whether to take off clothes before being treated

• the decontamination techniques utilised in relation to the identification of the toxic substance

• how many people can be decontaminated realistically per unit time.

Armed aggression on the part of states

Civil defence

Natural disasters

Civil protection

Armed aggression on the part of

groups of dissidents

"Homeland security" (civil defence)

"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies" (resilience)

Emergency management: an evolutionary approach

Proxy Participatory

Civil defence...............Civil protection

Command and control Vertical chain of command Population excluded Law and order Secrecy

Collaboration Task forces

Population consulted and included

Problem solving Openness

Organisation • procedures • event scenarios • emergency plans

Intelligence • collection • interpretation • warning

Training • plan dissemination • exercises

Stockpiling • equipment • supplies

Surveillance • automatic (CCTV) • manual (personnel)

Analysis • laboratory • forensic

Counter-terrorism activity

Involvement of civil protection

Information (1): how emergencies are perceived

Impact of disaster Time

Deficit Surplus

Excess of information

Information critical

but lacking

Shortage of information

Events can be subject to different interpretations...

• in the World Trade Center collapse 500 of the victims were aliens, some without visas and US residency permits

• in the Bam earthquake many residents dug frantically among the ruins of their homes .... trying to recover staches of heroin etc.

More realism and less image is needed.

But public perception

of disasters continues to be dominated by myths and inaccuracies

enthusiastically propagated by

the mass media.

"Myth" no. 1: In general terms, disasters are truly exceptional events.

"Myth" no. 2: Disasters kill people without respect

to differences of social class.

"Myth" no. 3: Hiding under desks offers good

protection if there is an earthquake.

What is self-protective behaviour?

• roll up into a corner?

• get under a doorway?

• don't rush out all together

• avoid falling objects

• protect your head, neck and back

• ....or what?

"Myth" no. 4: Trapped people survive for many days under the rubble of collapsed buildings.

0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15

Hours Days

Survival time

100

50

0

Perc

en

tag

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f p

eo

ple

bro

ug

ht

ou

t

ali

ve f

rom

un

der

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llap

sed

bu

ilin

gs

Bam, Iran Dicembre 2003

In the Bam quake (26.12.03) 1600 rescuers from 43 nations saved only 30 people.

It was not an unusual situation....

The solution:

• encourage the formation of local search-and-rescue groups in the areas of major risk

• promote the transfer of technology and training

• international twinning of SAR groups.

Technical rescue should not be imported from

far away.

"Myth" no. 5: Disasters cause a great deal of chaos and thus cannot be managed systematically.

"Myth" no. 6: Usually, the first assistance in disaster is supplied by the emergency services.

"Myth" no. 7: When a disaster occurs there is usually a shortage of resources and for this

reason the event cannot be managed well.

"Myth" no. 8: When disasters occur people should

donate used clothes.

"Myth" no. 10: When disaster happens, people tend to panic.

Terrorism: a climate of fear....

Many eminent people in prominent positions in public life (top civil servants, politicians, scientists, police chiefs, etc.) have given the mass media their opinions

on the probable behaviour of the general public during a disaster,

opinions absolutely without any foundation of research in the social sciences

(sociology, social psychology, etc.).

"Myth" no. 11: People will flee in large numbers

from a disaster area.

"Myth" no. 12: After disaster has struck, people tend to be dazed and apathetic.

"Myth" no. 13: Disasters commonly give rise to

spontaneous manifestations of antisocial, behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.

Instead we have the therapeutic community

"Myth" no. 14: Unburied dead bodies constitute a health hazard and will contaminate

water supplies.

The mass media continually state that the presence of unburied bodies after disaster

can and will cause disease epidemics.

"Myth" no. 15: Spraying bodies, rubble

and survivors with disinfectant stops the spread of disease.

"Myth" no. 16: Disease epidemics are a very common

result of the disruption and poor health caused by major disasters.

"Myth" no. 17: Field hospitals are useful for the treatment of the injured.

"Myth" no. 18: Great quantities and assortments of

medicines should be sent to disaster areas.

"Myth" no. 19: Anthrax is a white powder.

"Myth" no. 20: Technology will save the world

from disasters.

Toulouse 21 September 2001

Explosion in a nitrogen fertilizer factory • 12 dead, 180 injured (30 seriously) • major damage over a 5 km radius

• toxic cloud of ammonia

The factory that exploded was situated next to another that made space rocket fuel !!!

"Myth" no. 21: Tsunamis are tidal waves.

"Myth" no. 22: Earthquake magnitude is always measured on the Richter scale.

"Myth" no. 23: There is such a thing as "earthquake weather".

Our image of disasters is conditioned far too much by Hollywood!

Mutual antipathy

or collaborative relationship?

Representatives of the mass

media

Editorial independence and freedom

Sales and ratings; reputation;

revenue from advertising

Emergency and disaster managers

Obligation to inform the public

Public information centres; warnings

and alerts; informing the

relatives of victims

Feedback

Feedback

Direct communication

Press conferences, communiques Consumer

relations

Civil protection service

The mass media

Call centre The

general public

Information 2: role of

technology in the

management of information

Wisdom: ability to make decisions on the basis of principles, experience and knowledge

Knowledge: understanding of how things function (or should function)

Information: description of physical and social situations

Data: basic facts and statistics

COMMUNICATION

Old ideas...

• rigid structure • hierarchy • military doctrine • secrecy • cordon • command and control • security • civil defence.

New ideas...

• planning • collaboration • flexible, adaptable management • limited "span of control" • information sharing • IT support • accredited journalists • involving the public • civil protection.

Some effects of the information

and communications technology revolution

• flattening of the chain of command

• IT support for disaster response

• overload of information delivery systems

• the emergency manager must study new ways to inform himself and others.

• artificiality and isolation from the reality on the ground

data

input and consultation

Data banks

Predictive models

of events

Display and analysis technology

Ability to analyse data

data analysis circuit

Disaster relief

Emergency manager

emergency management

circuit

Cultural filter

Risk management practices

Benign

Malignant

Technology as a source of risk reduction

Technology as an inadvertent source of risk

Technology as a deliberate source of risk

Ceaseless development of technology

Humanitarian relief

Aceh (Indonesia)

Afghanistan

Africa meridionale

Angola

Burundi

Cecenia

Colombia

Corea del Nord

Eritrea e Ethiopia

Grandi Laghi Africani

Haiti

Il Caucaso

Iraq

Kenya

Kosovo e i Balcani

Liberia

Pakistan settentrionale

Palestina e Israele

Rwanda

Sierra Leone

Somalia

Sri Lanka

il Sudan

Timor Orientale

Uganda

'Complex emergencies': situations of political, economic and military collapse and damage to the fabric of society

The "complex emergencies":-

• around the world are about 25

• 60 million refugees and 25 million internally displaced persons (IDPs)

• the gap between rich and poor is widening

• powerful interests direct global traffic in arms, people and drugs

• increasing dilemma of neutrality

• increasing risk of revenge attacks.

War and conflict

Pove

rty

Natural disasters

Inse

curity

Vulnerability and marginalisation

Military

Humanitarian assistance

assistance

The "Military Cross"

Military assistance

Humanitarian assistance

Creation of poverty,

marginalisation, precariousness

"Capacity building":

creation of resilience

Global exploitation

Informal and black economy

Science

The international community

Justice Impartiality

Humanitarianism

Hijacking of assistance

Relief

Robbery and rape of victims

Total war

Politicisation of relief suppies

What future?

Conclusions

FUTUROLOGY

• at the world scale, one or more great events will cause a drastic reorganisation disaster preparedness

• the catalyst event may be a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, or a biological or radioactive incident.

• losses in disaster will continue to increase steeply

• poverty and vulnerability will define ever more closely the areas of greatest susceptibility to disasters

Pandemics

Great geophysical

events: volcanic

eruptions, earthquakes,

extra- terrestrial impacts,

etc.

Radio- active

emissions

Toxic spills

Epidemics, epizoozics, epiphytotics

CBRN

Emerging risks...

In civil protection history does tend to repeat itself...

Lisbon earthquake, 1755, and New York

attacks, 2001

History can help us to understand the present and predict the future....

....it is a vital element of planning scenarios.

• the job of the emergency manager will become more and more complex

• emergency planning will have to tackle new kinds of event

• emergency management will very slowly become a profession

• the level of international participation in disasters will rise.

HAZARD,

RISK &

DISASTER

STUDIES

SEVEN SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT

Criminal justice

and forensic

science

and perhaps an eighth...

Sociology

Psychology

& psychiatry

Economic &

financial studies

Development

studies

Disaster medicine

& epidemiology

Physical &

construction

sciences

Geography &

anthropology:

cultural (human)

anthropology

Ecology

Geology

(& Geomorphology)

Geophysics

(inc. Seismology)

Vulcanology Climatology

Hydraulics

Hydrology

Meteorology

Architecture

Civil engineering

Geotechnical engineering

Structural engineering

Mechanical &

electrical engineering Information &

communication

technology (ICT)

Computer technology

Remote sensing

Risk analysis (inc.

risk identification,

estimation,

management &

communication)

Cartography

Development studies

Economics

Geography, History

Jurisprudence & legal stds

Urban & regional planning

Mass media studies

Psychology

Sociology

Epidemiology

Nursing

Nutrition

Pharmacology

General medicine

Surgery &

emergency medicine

Public health, hygiene

& epidemiology

Veterinary sciences

Health sciences Social & spatial sciences

Computational

& analytical

sciences

Construction sciences

Atmospheric & water sciences

Earth & environmental sciences

HAZARD,

RISK &

DISASTER

CONSTITUENT DISCIPLINES

Emergency management training and education

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RECOVERY AND

RECONSTRUCTION

PLANNING

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RM

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MA

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ME

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METHODS OF

RISK MITIGATION

FIE

LD

EX

ER

CIS

ES

Recognition and an institutional role for the

professional figure

Certification of competence

Training programmes

Emerging professional

figure

Policies and legislation

Research Experience

Organi- sation

Emergency planning and organisation of security systems

Warning and preparations;

damage prevention measures

Emergency action and damage

limitation measures

Restoration of basic services

Safety and security

measures

Integration through planning

Linkages

Mitigation and risk reduction

Preparation and warning

Emergency action

Recovery and

reconstruction

Planning • scenarios • risk analysis • emergency plans • protocols

Organisation • comand structure • task forces • operations centres • communications

Preparation • education & training • exercises • plan dissemination • revision of plans

Resources • materials • vehicles, equipment • communications • manpower

CREATION OF A NEW CULTURE OF CIVIL

PROTECTION

POTENTIAL TO BE

EXPLOITED

DEMAND

NEEDS

SUPPLY

Public participation in decision making

Government paternalism

Inclusive outcomes

Social exclusion

Discontent

Satisfaction

Discontent

...or...

(must be informed)

Sustainable emergency management:-

• is centred upon the local level (but is harmonised from above)

• has the support and involvement of the population

• is based on plans that are fully disseminated and frequently revised

• is a fundamental, every-day service for the population and is taken seriously.

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David.Alexander@ucl.ac.uk