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Transcript of Emergency planning and mgt
17/06/2010
1
Prof. David AlexanderUniversity of FlorenceProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence
Emergency PlanningEmergency Planning
and Managementand Management
The essence of The essence of emergency emergency management:management:--The essence of The essence of emergency emergency management:management:--
To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in theabsence of necessary information
To tackle pressing needs withmaximum efficiency and speed butwith scarce resources and in theabsence of necessary information
BUT this is still a young field that lacksinternational consensus on standards, procedures,
and legal and institutional imperatives.
BUT this is still a young field that lacksinternational consensus on standards, procedures,
and legal and institutional imperatives.
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Some characteristics of large emergenciesSome characteristics of large emergencies
•• the context of the context of riskrisk and and vulnerabilityvulnerability
can transform an can transform an incidentincident into a into a disaster.disaster.
•• the context of the context of riskrisk and and vulnerabilityvulnerability
can transform an can transform an incidentincident into a into a disaster.disaster.
•• 10%10% require a require a qualitative changequalitative change
in management techniquesin management techniques
•• 10%10% require a require a qualitative changequalitative change
in management techniquesin management techniques
•• 90%90% of emergencies do of emergencies do notnot
require special proceduresrequire special procedures
•• 90%90% of emergencies do of emergencies do notnot
require special proceduresrequire special procedures
•• events that cannot be managedevents that cannot be managed
with normal resourceswith normal resources
•• events that cannot be managedevents that cannot be managed
with normal resourceswith normal resources
Local incident Local response A
Threshold of local capacity
Small regional
incidentCo-ordinated local response B
Threshold of intermunicipal capacity
Major regional
incident
Intermunicipal and
regional responseB
Threshold of regional capacity
National disaster
Intermunicipal, regional
and national responseC
Threshold of national capacity
International
catastrophe
Ditto, with more
international assistanceC
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Volontarysector:
support andintegration
Privatesector:integration
Disaster
Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations
Province, region, state, county:co-ordination, assistance
Nation: policies ofcompatibility, harmonisation
and co-ordination
International:exchange and support
HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecasting
PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection
DisasterDisastermanagementmanagement
MajorMajorincidentincident
managementmanagement
IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement
PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols
Human &Human &materialmaterialresourcesresources
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Major eventMajor eventmanagementmanagement
IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagementIncidentIncident
managementmanagement
PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection
PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection
HazardHazardforecasting,forecasting,monitoring,monitoring,etc.etc.
Plans,Plans,procedures,procedures,protocolsprotocols
Plans,Plans,procedures,procedures,protocolsprotocols
Human andHuman andmaterialmaterialresourcesresources
Human andHuman andmaterialmaterialresourcesresources
Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroads....crossroads....
Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroads....crossroads....
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"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security""Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security""Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuitymanagementmanagementComplexComplex
emergenciesemergenciesComplexComplex
emergenciesemergenciesComplexComplex
emergenciesemergencies
CivilCivilprotectionprotectionCivilCivil
protectionprotectionCivilCivil
protectionprotectionTheThe
securitysecurityindustryindustry
TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry
TheThesecuritysecurityindustryindustry
Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters
Naturaldisasters
Techno-logical
disasters
Socialdisasters
Inten-tional
disasters
Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic
Civildefence
Civildefence
Civildefence
"Civilcontingencies"
"Civilcontingencies"
"Civilcontingencies"
CivilprotectionCivilprotectionCivilprotection
"Homeland Security"
"Homeland Security"
"Homeland Security"
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Civil contingencies
ResilienceResilience
management
The risk environmentThe risk environment
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
Civildefence
Counter terrorismCounter terrorism
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Terrorism is a form ofteleological disaster (i.e., piloted)
• it is potentially infinitely mutable
• designing remedies is avery expensive process
• the scenarios are highly debatable.
EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):
EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):
•• 12 dead12 dead•• 12 dead12 dead
•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...
•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...
•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injured•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injured
•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..
•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..
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The principal effectof terrorism on thegeneral public
could be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofnormal daily life...
The principal effectof terrorism on thegeneral public
could be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofnormal daily life...
...with huge costs to society....with huge costs to society.
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of statesArmed aggressionArmed aggression
on the part of stateson the part of states
Civil defenceCivil defence
Natural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters
Civil protectionCivil protection
"Homeland security"(civil defence)
"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
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Emergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approachEmergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approach
Proxy ParticipatoryProxy Participatory
Civil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protection
Command and controlCommand and controlVertical chainVertical chainof commandof commandPopulation excludedPopulation excludedLaw and orderLaw and orderSecrecySecrecy
CollaborationCollaborationTask forcesTask forces
Population consultedPopulation consultedand includedand included
Problem solvingProblem solvingOpennessOpenness
OrganisationOrganisation• procedures• event scenarios• emergency plans
IntelligenceIntelligence• collection• interpretation• warning
TrainingTraining• plan dissemination• exercises
StockpilingStockpiling• equipment• supplies
SurveillanceSurveillance• automatic (CCTV)• manual (personnel)
AnalysisAnalysis• laboratory• forensic
CounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activityCounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activity
Involvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protection
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Military Civilian
Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)
Emergency services(army)
[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection
Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation
Chain of command Autonomy
Military Civilian
Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)
Emergency services(army)
[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection
Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation
Chain of command Autonomy
InformationInformation
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Shortage ofShortage ofinformation
Excess ofExcess ofinformation
Impact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disaster TimeTimeTimeTime
InformationInformationcritical but critical but lackinglacking
But publicperceptionof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuraciesenthusiasticallypropagated bythe mass media.
But publicperceptionof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuraciesenthusiasticallypropagated bythe mass media.
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"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respectto differences of social class.
"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respectto differences of social class.
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"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.
"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.
"Myth" no. 4:"Myth" no. 4:Trapped people survive for many daysunder the rubble of collapsed buildings.
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0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15Hours Days
Survival time
100
50
0
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
pe
op
le b
rou
gh
t o
ut
ali
ve
fro
m u
nd
er
co
lla
ps
ed
bu
ilin
gs
"Myth" no. 5:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.
"Myth" no. 5:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 6:6:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed well.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 6:6:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed well.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 7:7:When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 7:7:When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 8:8:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 8:8:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 9:9:When disaster happens,people tend to panic.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 10:10:People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 10:10:People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 11:11:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 11:11:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 12:12:Disasters commonly give rise toDisasters commonly give rise to
spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.
Instead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic communityInstead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic community
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 13:13:Unburied dead bodies constitute ahealth hazard and will contaminate
water supplies.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 14:14:Spraying bodies, rubble
and survivors with disinfectantstops the spread of disease.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 15:15:Disease epidemics are a very commonresult of the disruption and poor health
caused by major disasters.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 16:16:Field hospitals are useful forthe treatment of the injured.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 17:17:Great quantities and assortments of
medicines should be sent to disaster areas.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 18:18:Anthrax is a white powder.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 18:18:Anthrax is a white powder.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 19:19:Technology will save the worldTechnology will save the world
from disasters.from disasters.
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"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 20:20:Tsunamis are tidal waves.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 20:20:Tsunamis are tidal waves.
"Myth" no"Myth" no. . 21:21:Earthquake magnitude is alwaysmeasured on the Richter scale.
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Myth no
Myth no. . 22:
22: Major disasters
Major disasters
always happen to someone else.
always happen to someone else.
Silverpit Crater, North Sea basin
Silverpit Crater, North Sea basin
Volcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in GermanyVolcanic eruption hazard in Germany
Tsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in ScotlandTsunami hazard in Scotland
Earthquake hazard in Belgium,Earthquake hazard in Belgium,the Irish Sea, London, central Englandthe Irish Sea, London, central England
Earthquake hazard in Belgium,Earthquake hazard in Belgium,the Irish Sea, London, central Englandthe Irish Sea, London, central England
CBRN terrorism hazard anywhereCBRN terrorism hazard anywhere..CBRN terrorism hazard anywhereCBRN terrorism hazard anywhere..
Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!
Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!
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MutualMutualantipathyantipathy
ororcollaborativecollaborativerelationship?relationship?
Representativesof the mass
media
Editorialindependenceand freedom
Sales andratings;
reputation;revenue fromadvertising
Emergencyand disaster
managers
Obligationto informthe public
Public informationcentres; warnings
and alerts;informing the
relatives of victims
Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge
Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)
Information:Information: description ofdescription ofphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations
Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION
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Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...
•• rigid structurerigid structure•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.
•• rigid structurerigid structure•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.
New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...
•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.
•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.
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Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information
and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution
Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information
and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution
•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command
•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response
•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems
•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..
•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..
•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground
•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground
The EmergencyThe EmergencyPlanning ProcessPlanning Process
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Emergencyenvironment
EmergencyproceduresEmergencyprocedures
Emergencyco-ordination
plan
Emergencyco-ordination
plan
SpontaneousimprovisationSpontaneousimprovisation
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ResultsOperations Operations
Procedures Procedures
Plans Plans
Policies Policies
Command systemsCommand systems•• operations centresoperations centres
•• task forcestask forces•• communicationscommunications
•• chains of commandchains of command
Command systemsCommand systems•• operations centresoperations centres
•• task forcestask forces•• communicationscommunications
•• chains of commandchains of command
supply
demand
timeDisaster
supply
demand
time
urban SAR shortage
Disaster
In emergency planningefficiency is measured in terms oflives saved and damage avoided.
shortagereduced byefficientmobilisation
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Three canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planningThree canons of emergency planning
(1)(1) aid from outside the disaster areaaid from outside the disaster areashould should reinforcereinforce, not replace, local, not replace, local
resourcesresources
(1)(1) aid from outside the disaster areaaid from outside the disaster areashould should reinforcereinforce, not replace, local, not replace, local
resourcesresources
(2)(2) the objectives are to develop a statethe objectives are to develop a stateof local of local selfself--sufficiencysufficiency and maintainand maintain
public orderpublic order
(2)(2) the objectives are to develop a statethe objectives are to develop a stateof local of local selfself--sufficiencysufficiency and maintainand maintain
public orderpublic order
(3)(3) the most efficient emergencythe most efficient emergencypreparedness ispreparedness is generic,generic,allall--hazards planninghazards planning..
(3)(3) the most efficient emergencythe most efficient emergencypreparedness ispreparedness is generic,generic,allall--hazards planninghazards planning..
QU
AN
TIT
Y
TIME
needs
local self-help
imported assistance
unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needsReduce unmet needs
Increase local selfIncrease local self--sufficiencysufficiencyIncrease local selfIncrease local self--sufficiencysufficiency
Rationalise imported assistanceRationalise imported assistanceand make it more timelyand make it more timely
Rationalise imported assistanceRationalise imported assistanceand make it more timelyand make it more timely
The challenges of emergency planningThe challenges of emergency planning
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The emergency operations centre isThe emergency operations centre isusually the most appropriate place tousually the most appropriate place tocreate and maintain the emergency plancreate and maintain the emergency plan
The emergency operations centre isThe emergency operations centre isusually the most appropriate place tousually the most appropriate place tocreate and maintain the emergency plancreate and maintain the emergency plan
Field command postField command postField command postField command post
•• interfaceinterface between command centrebetween command centreand site of the impactand site of the impact
•• interfaceinterface between command centrebetween command centreand site of the impactand site of the impact
•• located on thelocated on the peripheryperiphery of theof themain impact zonemain impact zone
•• located on thelocated on the peripheryperiphery of theof themain impact zonemain impact zone
•• coco--ordinatesordinates emergency work on basisemergency work on basisof directions received from the EOCof directions received from the EOC..
•• coco--ordinatesordinates emergency work on basisemergency work on basisof directions received from the EOCof directions received from the EOC..
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Inner cordon
MASS CASUALTYINCIDENT
MASS CASUALTYINCIDENT
Helicopterambulance
Secondarystaging
area
Minor
injuries
treatment
Massmediapost
Incident
command
post
Mortuary
area
Control postControl postAmbulanceloading area
Triagearea
Ad
van
ce
med
ical p
ost
Primarystaging area
Medical postfor personnel
Rescueloop
Pedestrians only
Cordon Cordon III for III for traffic traffic controlcontrol
Cordon Cordon III for III for traffic traffic controlcontrol MultiMulti--agencyagency
operationsoperationscommandcommand..
MultiMulti--agencyagencyoperationsoperationscommandcommand..
PublicPublicassembly areaassembly area
PublicPublicassembly areaassembly area
Rescuers'Rescuers'assembly pointassembly pointRescuers'Rescuers'
assembly pointassembly pointPoints ofPoints ofaccess toaccess tocordonedcordonedoff areasoff areas
Points ofPoints ofaccess toaccess tocordonedcordonedoff areasoff areas
Onlyrescuers
Cordon ICordon ICordon ICordon I
Only authorisedpersonnel Cordon IICordon IICordon IICordon II
Incident
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GeneralisedGeneralised DetailedDetailed
Synthesis:abbreviated
plan
Details:Details:data,annexes,appendices
Plan:structure
SUDDEN-IMPACT DISASTER OCCURSSUDDEN-IMPACT DISASTER OCCURS
TOWN CENTRETOWN CENTRE
MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTRE
- in the Town Hall
MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY
OPERATIONS CENTRE
- in the Town Hall
ASSEMBLY POINTS
AND AREAS
----- Building
----- Street
----- Square
----- Street
----- Building
----- Square
ASSEMBLY POINTS
AND AREAS
----- Building
----- Street
----- Square
----- Street
----- Building
----- Square
Immediatelythe crisis
beginsTHE MAYOR
- goes to the Emergency Operations Centre
- makes contact with the regional authorities
- sends personnel to assembly areas
THE MAYOR
- goes to the Emergency Operations Centre
- makes contact with the regional authorities
- sends personnel to assembly areas
EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION DIRECTORS
- go to the emergency operations room
EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION DIRECTORS
- go to the emergency operations room
EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION OPERATORS
- go to the emergency operations centre and
follow the orders of the Mayor
EMERGENCY SUPPORT FUNCTION OPERATORS
- go to the emergency operations centre and
follow the orders of the Mayor
MUNICIPAL WORKERS
- Group A meets in --------- Street in front of Town Hall
- Group B goes to the principal assembly area
MUNICIPAL WORKERS
- Group A meets in --------- Street in front of Town Hall
- Group B goes to the principal assembly area
VOLUNTEERS OF THE "----- GROUP"
- take control of the assembly areas
VOLUNTEERS OF THE "----- GROUP"
- take control of the assembly areas
THE POPULATION
- is led to the public assembly areas
THE POPULATION
- is led to the public assembly areas
THE MUNICIPAL POLICE FORCE
- takes control of key points in the centre of town and
directs the population to the assembly points
- sends situation reports periodically by radio
to the emergency operations centre
THE MUNICIPAL POLICE FORCE
- takes control of key points in the centre of town and
directs the population to the assembly points
- sends situation reports periodically by radio
to the emergency operations centre
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NATIONALEMERGENCY PLAN
REGIONAL ANDPROVINCIALEMERGENCY
PLAN
MUNICIPALEMERGENCY
PLAN
MUTUALASSISTANCE
PACTS
AIRPORT ANDTRAFFIC
EMERGENCYPLANS
HEALTHSYSTEM AND
HOSPITALEMERGENCY
PLANS
EMERGENCYPLANS FOR
COMMERCIALAND INDUSTRIAL
FACILITIES
EMERGENCYPLANS FORMUSEUMS,GALLERIESAND SITES
Disasterin the medical
centre
Disasterin the system
of medical
centres
Disasterin the external
environment
Disasterplanning for
the medicalcentre
Disaster
planningfor the system
of medical
centres
Disaster
planning forthe external
environment
Co-ordinatedEMS Disaster
plans
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EmergencyEmergency responseresponseplanningplanning
EmergencyEmergency responseresponseplanningplanning
ContingencyContingency planning inplanning inthe the prepre--emergencyemergency phasephase ((daysdays))
ContingencyContingency planning inplanning inthe the prepre--emergencyemergency phasephase ((daysdays))
PermanentPermanent emergencyemergency planplanPermanentPermanent emergencyemergency planplan
IncidentIncidentIncidentIncident
OperationalOperational planningplanningOperationalOperational planningplanning
ShortShort--termterm strategicstrategicplanning (planning (hourshours --> > daysdays))ShortShort--termterm strategicstrategicplanning (planning (hourshours --> > daysdays))
ShortShort--termterm tacticaltacticalplanning (planning (hourshours))
ShortShort--termterm tacticaltacticalplanning (planning (hourshours))
Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction
planningplanning
Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction
planningplanning
Recovery andRecovery andreconstructionreconstruction
planningplanning
Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operational
planningplanning
Strategic,Strategic,tactical & operationaltactical & operational
planningplanning
AftermathAftermath
DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster
MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning
MonitoringMonitoringpredictionprediction& warning& warning
Permanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency planPermanent emergency plan
Business continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity planBusiness continuity plan
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Likely event:Likely event:use referenceuse referencescenarioscenario
Likely event:Likely event:use referenceuse referencescenarioscenario
Planning:Planning:Planning:Planning:
Improbable event:Improbable event:use genericuse genericproceduresprocedures
Improbable event:Improbable event:use genericuse genericproceduresprocedures
consequencesat time 2consequencesat time 2
evolutionevolutionevolutionevolution
consequencesat time 1consequencesat time 1
formal evaluation of theoutcome of the scenarioformal evaluation of theoutcome of the scenario
evaluation ofthe progressof the scenario
evaluation ofthe progressof the scenario
developdevelop--mentmentof theof thescenarioscenario
developdevelop--mentmentof theof thescenarioscenarioconsequences
at time nconsequencesat time n
evolutionevolutionevolutionevolution
initialconditionsinitial
conditions
historicalanalysishistoricalanalysis
hypotheticalingredientshypotheticalingredients
referenceevent
referenceevent
timezerotimezero
ScenarioScenariomethodologymethodologyScenarioScenario
methodologymethodology
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Construction of operational
scenarios of hazard, risk, impactand emergency response
Existence of various statesof hazard and vulnerability
Census ofavailable resources
Plan of action foremergencies
Pro
ce
ss
es
of
co
ns
tan
ta
da
pta
tio
no
f th
e p
lan
Revision
ExercisingExercising Evaluation
ActivationActivation DisasterDisaster
Preparatory study
DisseminationDissemination Information
Creation andCreation andupdatingupdatingof planof plan
Stakeholders'opinions Training
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Plan
ApparentchaosApparentchaos Model
Testing
DisasterDisasterDisasterDisaster
Result
Feedbackand revision
Feedback
and revision
Evalutation
ConclusionsConclusions
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FUTUROLOGY
FUTUROLOGY
FUTUROLOGY
FUTUROLOGY
• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness
• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness
• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.
• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.
• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply
• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply
• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters
• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters
•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex
•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex
•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event
•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event
•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession
•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession
•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..
•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..
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Emergencyplanning andorganisationof securitysystems
Warning andpreparations;damagepreventionmeasures
Emergencyaction anddamagelimitationmeasures
Restoration ofbasic services
Safety andsecuritymeasures
SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fullydisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
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www.terrapublishing.netwww.terrapublishing.net
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!Prof. David AlexanderProf. David Alexander
[email protected]@alice.it
emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander
emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander