Embracing the Paradoxes of Leadership and the Power of Doubt

Dr Michael SmetsSaïd Business School, University of Oxford

icon - future of leadership II

Brussels, 19 November 2015michael.smets@sbs.ox.ac.uk

@michael_smets

#CEOReport

The CEO Report

• >150 CEOs

• 880 years of experience (6.5)

• 5.8m employees (46,000)

• $1.6tr revenues ($14bn)

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• Comprehensive

• Personal

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Has the Role of the CEO Changed?

3The CEO Report

Leading at the Intersection

Once business was impervious. ... [but] now ... business and

what’s happening outside are actually one.

The CEO Report4

Everybody has a voice, and what's more important,

everybody's heard and everybody wants to

engage.

Significance

Speed

Sc

op

e

A Multi-Dimensional Approach to Change

The CEO Report5

You have to separate the noise and the normal stuff

from fundamental shifts ... and then be able to

determine how quickly those shifts are going to manifest

or disrupt what you’re doing…

You have to begin to sort out the results you’re

getting. Are they a result of a broader macro-

economic or industry shift taking place, or are they more enterprise-

specific?

We need to be more worried about uncertainties that can

affect us in a systematic structural way … and less

concerned about micro-managing the effects of pace.

S3 Change: Speed, Scope, Significance

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Ripples over Ripples…

7The CEO Report

The CEO Report8

A CEO must have the ability to very quickly have a

change of lens – to have lenses that can zoom in and out quickly, and with this put themselves in the right place

with the right attitude.

Leading with Ripple Intelligence

[I try to anticipate the] second bounce of the ball—you make a decision and there are follow-on repercussions ...

sometimes those issues can be as big as the first one you dealt with.

A CEO Early Warning System…

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Source: Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition. World Economic Forum

… To Connect the Dots

The CEO Report10

Source: Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition. World Economic Forum

Do you ever doubt yourself?

Working Through Tough Decisions

11

A certain level of professional doubt should be the quality of any good

leader.

If you don’t doubt yourself in a constructive, positive way, you are

borderline dangerous for your company.

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Mapping the Landscape of Doubt

I have taken myself out of the second-guessing game, because it will

drive you crazy.

12

It’s never black and white […]. So there’s

an anxiety - which in a way almost gives

youa bit more clarity.

The CEO Report

13The CEO Report

One of the most important things is

having people around you that tell you

how wrong you are.

The CEO Report14

The idea that you're crystal clear at those moments - for me anyway - it’s an artificial construct, because if you're that clear, you've probably

missed something.

The CEO Report15

If you are not carefuland you think that you are indestructible, then

that’s where the dangers lurk.

16

The Power of Doubt

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Finding Balance

17The CEO Report

Finding Balance

18

1. Doubt

2. Realism

3. Conviction

4. Patience

Because all the decisions fall on the CEO, you have to have a clear vision and purpose and philosophy

about where you are going.

And you try to connect that to the organization.

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Continual Learning and Renewal

19

What struck me washow much more in the publiceye CEOs are now courtesy

of the media … you don’t really quite ever get the

preparation for the external face of the business that you

become.

I think most CEOs aren’tnecessarily as carefully

crafted when they arrive in the role as they might like

to make out.

I think there is probably more learning on the job that goes on than people

get.

The CEO Report

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www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/ideas-impact/ceo-report

michael.smets@sbs.ox.ac.uk