ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization...

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ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com 1(14) Now attractively valued After Elisa’s Q3 report and Capital Markets Day takeaways, we upgrade our recommendation to “Accumulate” (“Reduce”). The current share price appears too low, given the strong margins and signs of data monetization in Q3. Q4 might see aggressive campaigning by Elisa’s Finnish competitors and we have taken this into account in our new forecasts. Relative premium of Elisa vs. European telecom peers has eased in recent weeks. Elisa’s medium term financial targets are high, especially >36% EBITDA margin target which we do not fully buy in our estimates – yet there is value with limited risks. We set our target price to EUR 23.8, suggesting c. 14% upside. Our Evli Scenario Analysis suggests a range of EUR 20-28 depending on markets’ pricing mechanics going forward. Q3: Impressive margin progression Elisa’s Q3 missed slightly in terms of sales but margins were very strong. Hence the company updated its view for 2014 EBITDA – now sees it slightly higher YoY when previously it was written “at the same level or slightly higher”. Guidance upgrade was bullish given the heavy campaigning started by TeliaSonera on October 1. EPS was EUR 0.43 vs. consensus view of EUR 0.40. We have lifted our margin estimates given the stronger than expected Q3. CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key Elisa presented data points that suggest data monetization is well under way. In the short-term, trend is very appealing. Going forward towards 2017, 36% or above EBITDA margin target is very bullish. Finnish market is very mature, and we expect TeliaSonera and DNA remain active in aiming for growth – monetization of existing customers does not suffice in the attempts, in our view. “Accumulate” – no more downside, estimates cautious Elisa’s recent share price decline has taken it to a level where it is clearly more attractive. Relative valuation is now more suitable. Our medium term forecasts are below Elisa’s targets – yet there is at least 10% upside to the shares. We upgrade to “Accumulate” (“Reduce”) with EUR 23.8 (21.7) target price. Long Elisa – short TLSN pair trade looks appealing. Rating ACCUMULATE 0 5 10 15 20 25 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14 Price/EUR Elisa DJ STOXX 600 Share price, EUR (Last trading day’s closing price) 20.80 Target price, EUR 23.8 Latest change in recommendation 27-Oct-14 Latest report on company 17-Oct-14 No. of shares outstanding, ‘000’s 159,349 No. of shares fully diluted, ‘000’s 159,349 Market cap, EURm 3,314 Free float, % 80.0 Exchange rate EUR/USD 1.360 Reuters code ELI1V.HE Bloomberg code ELI1V FH GICS Industry code 50101020 Next interim report 07-Feb-14 Web site www.elisa.com Analyst Mikko Ervasti E-mail [email protected] Telephone +358 9 4766 9205 BUY ACCUMULATE REDUCE SELL KEY FIGURES Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS EURm EURm % EURm EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR 2012 1,554 299 19.2% 272 1.35 12.4 2.2 7.0 11.6 1.30 2013 1,547 298 19.2% 272 1.33 13.8 2.5 6.7 13.0 1.30 2014E 1,528 313 20.5% 287 1.46 14.3 2.8 7.7 13.6 1.30 2015E 1,458 301 20.6% 277 1.38 15.0 2.9 7.2 14.0 1.30 2016E 1,488 309 20.8% 286 1.45 14.3 2.8 7.4 13.6 1.45 Market cap, EURm 3,314 BV per share 2014E, EUR 5.6 CAGR EPS 2013-16, % 2.8 Net debt 2014E, EURm 955 Price/book 2014E 3.7 CAGR sales 2013-16, % -1.3 Enterprise value, EURm 4,275 Dividend yield 2014E, % 6.3 ROE 2014E, % 26.6 Total assets 2014E, EURm 2,273 Tax rate 2014E, % 19.7 ROCE 2014E, % 17.1 Goodwill 2014E, EURm 832 Equity ratio 2014E, % 39.0 PEG, P/E 14/CAGR 7.5 All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report.

Transcript of ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization...

Page 1: ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key . Elisa presented data points that suggest data

ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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Now attractively valued

After Elisa’s Q3 report and Capital Markets Day takeaways, we upgrade our recommendation to “Accumulate” (“Reduce”). The current share price appears too low, given the strong margins and signs of data monetization in Q3. Q4 might see aggressive campaigning by Elisa’s Finnish competitors and we have taken this into account in our new forecasts. Relative premium of Elisa vs. European telecom peers has eased in recent weeks. Elisa’s medium term financial targets are high, especially >36% EBITDA margin target which we do not fully buy in our estimates – yet there is value with limited risks. We set our target price to EUR 23.8, suggesting c. 14% upside. Our Evli Scenario Analysis suggests a range of EUR 20-28 depending on markets’ pricing mechanics going forward.

Q3: Impressive margin progression Elisa’s Q3 missed slightly in terms of sales but margins were very strong. Hence the company updated its view for 2014 EBITDA – now sees it slightly higher YoY when previously it was written “at the same level or slightly higher”. Guidance upgrade was bullish given the heavy campaigning started by TeliaSonera on October 1. EPS was EUR 0.43 vs. consensus view of EUR 0.40. We have lifted our margin estimates given the stronger than expected Q3. CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key Elisa presented data points that suggest data monetization is well under way. In the short-term, trend is very appealing. Going forward towards 2017, 36% or above EBITDA margin target is very bullish. Finnish market is very mature, and we expect TeliaSonera and DNA remain active in aiming for growth – monetization of existing customers does not suffice in the attempts, in our view. “Accumulate” – no more downside, estimates cautious Elisa’s recent share price decline has taken it to a level where it is clearly more attractive. Relative valuation is now more suitable. Our medium term forecasts are below Elisa’s targets – yet there is at least 10% upside to the shares. We upgrade to “Accumulate” (“Reduce”) with EUR 23.8 (21.7) target price. Long Elisa – short TLSN pair trade looks appealing.

Rating ACCUMULATE

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Elisa DJ STOXX 600

Share price, EUR (Last trading day’s closing price)

20.80

Target price, EUR 23.8

Latest change in recommendation 27-Oct-14 Latest report on company

17-Oct-14 No. of shares outstanding, ‘000’s 159,349 No. of shares fully diluted, ‘000’s 159,349 Market cap, EURm 3,314 Free float, % 80.0 Exchange rate EUR/USD 1.360 Reuters code ELI1V.HE Bloomberg code ELI1V FH GICS Industry code 50101020 Next interim report 07-Feb-14 Web site www.elisa.com

Analyst Mikko Ervasti E-mail [email protected] Telephone +358 9 4766 9205

BUY ACCUMULATE REDUCE SELL

KEY FIGURES

Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS EURm EURm % EURm EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR

2012 1,554 299 19.2% 272 1.35 12.4 2.2 7.0 11.6 1.30 2013 1,547 298 19.2% 272 1.33 13.8 2.5 6.7 13.0 1.30 2014E 1,528 313 20.5% 287 1.46 14.3 2.8 7.7 13.6 1.30 2015E 1,458 301 20.6% 277 1.38 15.0 2.9 7.2 14.0 1.30 2016E 1,488 309 20.8% 286 1.45 14.3 2.8 7.4 13.6 1.45

Market cap, EURm 3,314 BV per share 2014E, EUR 5.6 CAGR EPS 2013-16, % 2.8 Net debt 2014E, EURm 955 Price/book 2014E 3.7 CAGR sales 2013-16, % -1.3 Enterprise value, EURm 4,275 Dividend yield 2014E, % 6.3 ROE 2014E, % 26.6 Total assets 2014E, EURm 2,273 Tax rate 2014E, % 19.7 ROCE 2014E, % 17.1 Goodwill 2014E, EURm 832 Equity ratio 2014E, % 39.0 PEG, P/E 14/CAGR 7.5 All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report.

Page 2: ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key . Elisa presented data points that suggest data

ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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EVLI Scenario Analysis: Elisa

20.80

23.8 (+14.4%)

20.2 (-2.9%)

28.2 (+35.6%)

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Elisa

Historical Stock Performance Current Price Base Case (Oct-15) Volume

Base case: Our balanced valuation methodology applies

In our base case, we expect Elisa to deliver EUR 1.38 of EPS in 2015E, followed by EUR 1.45 in the following year. Margins continue to expand; partly thanks to continued efficiencies, partly due to positive margin impact from the decrease of interconnect fees. Growth is modest at best in the medium term. Dividend stays close to current levels.

2014E 2015E 2016E 2017ESales growth -1% -5% 2% 3%EBIT margin 20.5% 20.6% 20.8% 21.3%EPS 1.46 1.38 1.45 1.54OtherSales growth -1% -5% 2% 3%EBIT margin 20.5% 20.6% 20.8% 21.3%EPS 1.46 1.38 1.45 1.54OtherSales growth -1% -5% 2% 3%EBIT margin 20.5% 20.6% 20.8% 21.3%EPS 1.46 1.38 1.45 1.54Other

Estimates unchanged from base case

Estimates unchanged from base case

Bull:EUR 28.2

+36%

Elisa will be priced using short-term close peer P/FCF multiples (17-18x).19x 2016E base case EPS

Base:EUR 23.8

+14%

Elisa will be based according to our balanced 3-step valuation process.15x 2016E base case EPS

Bear:EUR 20.2

-3%

Elisa is priced according to our N12M EV/EBITDA peer valuation.13x 2016E bear case EPS

Bull case: Peer cash flow multiples drive Elisa’s valuation

In our bull scenario, we do not present any more optimistic fundamentals but instead expect the market to start pricing Elisa even closer to peer/sector cash flow multiples. Many European established and stable peers trade with up to 20-22x P/FCF multiples, which would indicate closer to EUR 30 per share value for Elisa. Bear case: Forward-looking EV/EBITDA multiples drive Elisa’s valuation

In our bear case, again we refrain from making pessimistic estimates and instead expect Elisa’s EBITDA to be valued closer to peers. Efficiencies have driven Elisa’s EBITDA margins up during the year, but the exit of interconnect fee income from top line and its relation to costs slightly boosts Elisa’s margins as well. In absolute EBITDA term, the performance is not as high. Additionally, STOXX Telecommunications companies are priced ~6x EV/EBITDA, which is not very high. This component suggests shares are fairly valued at current levels.

Evli target price: EUR 23.8

Bull case fair value: EUR 28.2

Bear case fair value: EUR 20.2

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ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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Key takeaways from Elisa Capital Markets Day (22 October)

Elisa’s CMD repeated previous targets with 2017 EBITDA margin target update of >36% (previously >35% by 2015). Presentations were around data monetization, additional efficiencies and new services offering. Key takeaways were as follows:

• New high margin target comes mainly from 1) continued efficiencies, 2) reduced margin dilution by new services and 3) M&A actualized synergies

• 12% capex/sales target is realistic – currently just 6% of existing radio network is in use. LTE availability covers nearly all Finnish people. No urgency to take LTE to more rural areas despite Finnish geographical dynamics of high number of second homes across the country and wide rail and road network

• 17-18% of Elisa’s Finnish mobile revenues still come from interconnect fees which continue to go down per regulator decisions – this is the key downside risk to net sales development

• Finland already has the lowest price for incremental gigabyte so downside risks is data monetization are low

• CEO and other management confirmed that efficiency measures are well under way and that there is still “plenty to do”, without specifying clearly

• 50% of Elisa customer subscriptions are in fixed bundles – share of revenue from these kinds of customers is even higher

• M&A likely to be domestic – new services and regional consolidation, strict criteria applied

Estimates

We expect Elisa to deliver YoY net sales growth from 2016E onwards. While ARPU decline is easing as data monetization kicks in, interconnect, competition and weak macro are still expected to burden 2015E, resulting in -1.5% to -2.0% sales decline. Of this, service decline is some -1.0%. Elisa may need to take action in 1Q15 to win back lost customers resulting from 4Q14 competitor campaigns. Excluding the impact of interconnect fee cuts, mobile ARPU should grow slightly going forward. In our estimates we separate service revenues from interconnect and roaming, showing slightly negative 2015E growth. This is due to continued decline of fixed line sales, driven by legacy operations. We forecast EUR 132mn of EBITDA in Q4, resulting in EUR 527mn of FY2014 EBITDA which justifies new guidance of “growth YoY” (2013: EUR 508mn). This yields FY clean EBITDA margin of 34.5%. In 2015E, we expect slight expansion of +20bps i.e. 34.7% margin. Margin should peak in 2017-18E with an additional 100bps relative to 2015E, resulting in nearly 36% EBITDA margin – but not above it as company strategy states.

Target price and Recommendation

Our base case target price comes from our 3-step methodology, taking P/L items, cash flow, short term and long term into account. We arrive at EUR 23.8 target price, up to some extent thanks to messages from Q3 and CMD that lead to updated estimates. Our WACC items are also slightly adjusted with annual risk premia (5%) and risk-free rate (3%) updates. We upgrade our recommendation to “Accumulate” (“Reduce”), as the valuation is now more attractive.

Updated EBITDA margin target for medium term

Growth still distant

Mobile ARPU ex-regulatory set to grow thanks to data

Not fully buying new EBITDA margin target

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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ElisaYear End: DecEUR (million) 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014E 2014E 2015E 2015E 2015E 2015E 2015E

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FYDivisional SplitNet Sales

Consumer Customers 231.3 239.3 244.4 247.4 962.4 219.8 238.8 246.7 243.8 949.1 233.3 239.4 242.0 233.6 948.3 229.1 229.8 229.9 230.1 918.9% Change yoy 3% 5% 4% 1% 3% -5% 0% 1% -1% -1% 6% 0% -2% -4% 0% -2% -4% -5% -1% -3%% Change Services (organic) 3% 3% 3% -2% 2% -1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 4% 0% 0% -1% 1% 2% -1% -2% -1% -1%% Change Equipment (organic) 2% 2% 4% 5% 3% 0% 0% 1% -6% -1% 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%% Change interconnection/Roaming -2% 0% -2% -2% -2% -4% -4% -4% -3% -4% -1% 0% -1% -3% -1% -3% -3% -3% 0% -2%% Change M&A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%EUR Change yoy 7 12 10 3 32 -12 -1 2 -4 -13 14 1 -5 -10 -1 -4 -10 -12 -3 -29EUR Change services (organic) 7 7 6 -4 16 -3 4 3 10 14 8 1 0 -2 7 4 -1 -5 -3 -6EUR Change equipment (organic) 5 5 9 12 31 1 -1 3 -14 -11 -1 1 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0EUR Change interconnection/Roaming -5 0 -5 -5 -14 -10 -9 -11 -7 -36 -2 -1 -2 -8 -13 -8 -8 -7 0 -23EUR Change M&A 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 8 20 8 0 -1 0 7 0 0 0 0 0Corporate Customers 150.3 150.1 142.3 148.4 591.1 141.5 151.3 148.1 157.4 598.3 148.9 144.2 141.9 144.3 579.3 135.5 135.3 134.5 133.8 539.2% Change yoy 0% 0% -1% -5% -1% -6% 1% 4% 6% 1% 5% -5% -4% -8% -3% -9% -6% -5% -7% -7%% Change Services (organic) -1% -1% -1% -6% -2% -3% -1% -5% 2% -2% 0% -4% -2% -6% -3% -6% -3% -3% -7% -5%% Change Equipment (organic) 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% -1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%% Change interconnection/Roaming 0% -1% -1% -1% -1% -3% -5% -3% -5% 2% 0% -1% -1% -3% -2% -3% -3% -2% 0% -2%% Change M&A 0% 0% 0% 0% -3% 0% 7% 11% 7% -5% 6% 0% -1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%EUR Change yoy 0 0 -2 -7 -9 -9 1 6 9 7 7 -7 -6 -13 -19 -13 -9 -7 -10 -40EUR Change services (organic) -1 -1 -1 -10 -13 -5 -1 -7 3 -10 0 -6 -3 -9 -18 -10 -5 -4 -10 -29EUR Change equipment (organic) 2 2 1 4 9 1 -1 3 3 6 -1 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0EUR Change interconnection/Roaming -1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -5 -7 -5 -7 -24 -1 -2 -2 -4 -9 -4 -4 -3 0 -11EUR Change M&A 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 15 10 35 9 0 -2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0

Total Net 381.6 389.4 386.7 395.8 1,553.5 361.3 390.1 394.8 401.2 1,547.4 382.2 383.6 383.9 377.9 1,527.6 364.6 365.1 364.4 364.0 1,458.1% Change yoy 2.1% 3.1% 2.4% -1.2% 1.5% -5.3% 0.2% 2.1% 1.4% -0.4% 5.8% -1.7% -2.8% -5.8% -1.3% -4.6% -4.8% -5.1% -3.7% -4.5%% Change Services (organic) 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% -3.5% 0.2% -2.1% 0.8% -1.0% 3.2% 0.2% 2.2% -1.3% -0.8% -2.6% -0.7% -1.6% -1.5% -2.5% -3.7% -2.3%% Change Equipment (organic) 1.9% 1.9% 2.6% 3.9% 2.6% 0.5% -0.3% 1.3% -2.8% -0.3% -0.6% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%% Change interconnection/Roaming -1.4% -0.4% -1.6% -1.6% -1.2% -3.7% -4.2% -4.0% -3.4% -3.8% -0.6% -0.6% -1.0% -3.2% -1.4% -3.0% -3.3% -2.6% 0.0% -2.2%% Change M&A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 5.8% 4.4% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%EUR Change yoy 8 12 9 -5 24 -20 1 8 5 -6 21 -7 -11 -23 -20 -18 -18 -20 -14 -69EUR Change services (organic) 6 6 5 -14 3 -8 3 -4 13 4 8 -5 -3 -10 -10 -6 -6 -10 -14 -35EUR Change equipment (organic) 7 7 10 16 40 2 -1 5 -11 -5 -2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0EUR Change interconnection/Roaming -5 -1 -6 -6 -19 -14 -16 -15 -14 -60 -2 -3 -4 -13 -22 -12 -13 -10 0 -34EUR Change M&A 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 23 18 55 17 0 -3 0 14 0 0 0 0 0

RevenuesConsumer Customers 231 239 244 247 962 220 239 247 244 949 233 239 242 234 948 229 230 230 230 919Corporate Customers 150 150 142 148 591 142 151 148 157 598 149 144 142 144 579 135 135 135 134 539Total Net 382 389 387 396 1,554 361 390 395 401 1,547 382 384 384 378 1,528 365 365 364 364 1,458

Revenue Growth, Services (Organic)Consumer Customers 3% 3% 3% -2% 2% -1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 4% 0% 0% -1% 1% 2% -1% -2% -1% -1%Corporate Customers -1% -1% -1% -6% -2% -3% -1% -5% 2% -2% 0% -4% -2% -6% -3% -6% -3% -3% -7% -5%Total Continuing Net 2% 2% 1% -3% 0% -2% 1% -1% 3% 0% 2% -1% -1% -3% -1% -2% -2% -2% -4% -2%

2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014E 2014E 2015E 2015E 2015E 2015E 2015EEBITDA (clean) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Consumer Customers 73.7 74.1 82.7 76.5 307.0 62.9 74.1 86.3 79.4 302.7 76.3 79.5 89.9 78.5 324.3 75.3 77.3 84.5 74.0 311.1Corporate Customers 47.5 47.7 51.5 47.4 194.1 47.7 47.7 55.2 54.7 205.3 49.8 47.5 51.9 53.4 202.6 48.2 46.7 49.9 50.6 195.3Total 121.2 121.8 134.2 123.9 501.1 110.6 121.8 141.5 134.1 508.0 126.2 127.0 141.8 131.9 526.9 123.5 123.9 134.4 124.5 506.4

EBITDA margin (clean)Consumer Customers 31.9% 31.0% 33.8% 30.9% 31.9% 28.6% 31.0% 35.0% 32.5% 31.9% 32.7% 33.2% 37.1% 33.6% 34.2% 32.9% 33.6% 36.8% 32.1% 33.8%Corporate Customers 31.6% 31.8% 36.2% 31.9% 32.8% 33.7% 31.5% 37.3% 34.8% 34.3% 33.5% 32.9% 36.6% 37.0% 35.0% 35.6% 34.5% 37.1% 37.8% 36.2%Total 31.8% 31.3% 34.7% 31.3% 32.3% 30.6% 31.2% 35.8% 33.4% 32.8% 33.0% 33.1% 36.9% 34.9% 34.5% 33.9% 33.9% 36.9% 34.2% 34.7%

EBIT (clean) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FYConsumer Customers 43.1 45.9 54.8 48.2 192.0 34.4 44.3 55.7 52.2 186.6 45.5 48.8 59.8 51.4 205.5 45.8 48.3 55.2 47.4 196.7Corporate Customers 24.8 26.3 30.1 25.8 107.0 26.5 24.8 30.9 29.0 111.2 26.5 24.1 29.7 27.7 108.0 25.9 24.6 28.2 25.4 104.1Total 67.9 72.2 84.9 74.0 299.0 60.9 69.1 86.6 81.2 297.8 72.0 72.9 89.5 79.1 313.5 71.7 72.8 83.4 72.8 300.8

EBIT margin (clean)Consumer Customers 18.6% 19.2% 22.4% 19.5% 20.0% 15.7% 18.6% 22.6% 21.4% 19.7% 19.5% 20.4% 24.7% 22.0% 21.7% 20.0% 21.0% 24.0% 20.6% 21.4%Corporate Customers 16.5% 17.5% 21.2% 17.4% 18.1% 18.7% 16.4% 20.9% 18.4% 18.6% 17.8% 16.7% 20.9% 19.2% 18.6% 19.1% 18.2% 21.0% 19.0% 19.3%Total 17.8% 18.5% 22.0% 18.7% 19.2% 16.9% 17.7% 21.9% 20.2% 19.2% 18.8% 19.0% 23.3% 20.9% 20.5% 19.7% 19.9% 22.9% 20.0% 20.6%

Change in EBIT Margins (clean)Consumer Customers 1.4% 0.4% 0.6% -0.9% 0.3% -3.0% -0.6% 0.2% 1.9% -0.3% 3.9% 1.8% 2.1% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% -0.7% -1.4% -0.3%Corporate Customers -2.0% 0.2% -0.4% -1.1% -0.8% 2.2% -1.1% -0.3% 1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% -0.2% 0.7%Change in Underlying Operating Margins 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% -1.0% -0.1% -0.9% -0.8% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% -0.4% -0.9% 0.1%

EBIT Growth (clean)Consumer Customers 12% 7% 7% -4% 5% -20% -3% 2% 8% -3% 32% 10% 7% -2% 10% 1% -1% -8% -8% -4%Corporate Customers -10% 1% -3% -10% -6% 7% -6% 3% 12% 4% 0% -3% -4% -4% -3% -2% 2% -5% -8% -4%Total Continuing 2% 5% 3% -6% 1% -10% -4% 2% 10% 0% 18% 5% 3% -3% 5% 0% 0% -7% -8% -4%

Operating Costs (clean)Consumer Customers -188 -193 -190 -199 -770 -185 -195 -191 -192 -763 -188 -191 -182 -182 -743 -183 -182 -175 -183 -722Corporate Customers -126 -124 -112 -123 -484 -115 -127 -117 -128 -487 -122 -120 -112 -117 -471 -110 -111 -106 -108 -435Total Continuing -314 -317 -302 -322 -1,255 -300 -321 -308 -320 -1,250 -310 -311 -294 -299 -1,214 -293 -292 -281 -291 -1,157

Operating Cost Growth (clean)Consumer Customers 1.6% 4.7% 3.7% 2.2% 3.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.7% -3.8% -1.0% 1.3% -2.0% -4.6% -4.9% -2.6% -2.4% -4.7% -4.1% 0.3% -2.8%Corporate Customers 2.7% -0.5% -0.5% -3.5% -0.5% -8.4% 2.2% 4.5% 4.7% 0.6% 6.4% -5.1% -4.3% -9.2% -3.3% -10.5% -7.8% -5.3% -7.0% -7.7%Total Continuing 2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 1.7% -4.2% 1.2% 2.1% -0.6% -0.4% 3.3% -3.2% -4.5% -6.6% -2.8% -5.6% -5.9% -4.6% -2.6% -4.7%

Depreciation & Amortisation (clean)Consumer Customers -30.6 -28.2 -27.9 -28.3 -115.0 -28.5 -29.8 -30.6 -27.2 -116.1 -30.8 -30.7 -30.1 -27.1 -118.8 -29.5 -29.0 -29.4 -26.6 -114.4Corporate Customers -22.7 -21.4 -21.4 -21.6 -87.1 -21.2 -22.9 -24.3 -25.7 -94.1 -23.3 -23.4 -22.2 -25.7 -94.6 -22.3 -22.1 -21.7 -25.1 -91.2Total -53.3 -49.6 -49.3 -49.9 -202.1 -49.7 -52.7 -54.9 -52.9 -210.2 -54.2 -54.1 -52.3 -52.8 -213.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.7 -205.6

ExceptionalsConsumer Customers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -2.7 -5.8 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Corporate Customers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.6 -6.4 -8.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 -2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.8 0.0 -3.3 -12.2 -17.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -4.0 -4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBIT (Reported)Consumer Customers 43.1 45.9 54.8 48.2 192.0 33.8 44.3 53.0 46.4 177.5 45.5 48.8 59.8 49.4 203.5 45.8 48.3 55.2 47.4 196.7Corporate Customers 24.8 26.3 30.1 25.8 107.0 25.3 24.8 30.3 22.6 103.0 26.5 24.1 29.6 25.7 105.9 25.9 24.6 28.2 25.4 104.1Total 67.9 72.2 84.9 74.0 299.0 59.1 69.1 83.3 69.0 280.5 72.0 72.9 89.4 75.1 309.4 71.7 72.8 83.4 72.8 300.8

Figure 1. Elisa: Revenue and operating model by Evli.

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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DCF RationaleShare value (EUR) 23.0 Evli model

N12M RationaleElisa FCF (EURmn) 247.1 Evli model, interest deductedP/FCF peer multiple 18.3x European non-PIGS telecomsShare value (EUR) 28.3

N12M RationaleElisa EBITDA (EURmn) 513.7 Evli modelEV/EBITDA peer multiple 6x STOXX TelecomElisa premium 37% 3-year averageShare value (EUR) 20.2

DCF FCF EV/EBITDAPrice (EUR) 23.0 28.3 20.2Weight 33% 33% 33%Target priceShare price potentialRecommendation

EUR 23.814%

Accumulate

Figure 2. Elisa: Evli target price methology.

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

4x5x6x7x8x9x

10x11x12x

Prem

ium

(das

hed

lines

)

EV/E

BITD

A (s

olid

line

s)

Elisa 12-month forward EV/EBITDA relative to European peers (STOXX Telecom)

Elisa PeersPremium to all peers Average premium to all peers

Source: FactSet

Figure 3. Elisa: Consensus N12M EV/EBITDA valuation. Source: STOXX, FactSet.

Page 6: ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key . Elisa presented data points that suggest data

EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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VALUATION RESULTS BASE CASE DETAILS VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTIONS FOR WACC

Current share price 20.80 PV of Free Cash Flow 1,958 Long-term growth, % 2.0 Risk-free interest rate, % 3.00

DCF share value 22.98 PV of Horizon value 2,898 WACC, % 7.4 Market risk premium, % 5.0

Share price potential, % 10.5 Unconsolidated equity -6 Spread, % 0.5 Debt risk premium, % 2.5

Maximum value 26.0 Marketable securities 138 Minimum WACC, % 6.9 Equity beta coefficient 0.90

Minimum value 20.5 Debt - dividend -1,327 Maximum WACC, % 7.9 Target debt ratio, % 10

Horizon value, % 59.7 Value of stock 3,661 Nr of shares, Mn 159.3 Effective tax rate, % 21

DCF valuation, EURm 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Horizon Net sales 1,547 1,528 1,458 1,488 1,528 1,569 1,616 1,665 1,706 1,740 1,775 1,811 Sales growth, % -0.4 -1.3 -4.5 2.1 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Operating income (EBIT) 298 313 301 309 326 337 347 358 367 374 382 389 EBIT margin, % 19.2 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 + Depreciation+amort. 210 213 209 200 198 198 199 199 205 209 212 - Income taxes -65 -80 -61 -59 -63 -65 -68 -70 -72 -73 -75 - Change in NWC -10 -14 12 -1 -5 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 NWC / Sales, % 13.0 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 + Change in other liabs 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Capital Expenditure -385 -175 -183 -190 -200 -200 -200 -222 -222 -222 -222 -226 Investments / Sales, % 24.9 11.5 12.6 12.8 13.1 12.7 12.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.5 - Other items -12 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = Unlevered Free CF (FCF) 57 253 278 258 255 265 273 259 273 284 293 5,563 = Discounted FCF (DFCF) 250 255 221 204 197 189 167 164 159 152 2,898 = DFCF min WACC 251 257 224 207 201 193 172 169 165 159 3,336 = DFCF max WACC 250 254 219 201 193 184 162 158 153 146 2,540

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

7(14)

INTERIM FIGURES

EVLI ESTIMATES, EURm 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4E 2014E 2015E 2016E Net sales 361 390 395 401 1,547 382 384 384 378 1,528 1,458 1,488 EBITDA 111 122 141 134 508 126 127 142 132 527 510 509 EBITDA margin (%) 30.6 31.2 35.8 33.4 32.8 33.0 33.1 36.9 34.9 34.5 35.0 34.2 EBIT 61 69 87 81 298 72 73 90 79 313 301 309 EBIT margin (%) 16.9 17.7 21.9 20.2 19.2 18.8 19.0 23.3 20.9 20.5 20.6 20.8 Net financial items -6 -6 -5 -9 -26 -8 -6 -6 -6 -26 -24 -23 Pre-tax profit 55 63 81 73 272 64 67 84 73 287 277 286 Tax -13 -16 -19 -15 -62 -13 -13 -16 -15 -57 -58 -56 Tax rate (%) 24.0 24.7 22.9 20.4 22.9 19.8 19.3 18.8 21.0 19.7 21.0 19.7 Net profit 42 47 63 58 210 52 55 69 57 232 221 231 EPS 0.27 0.30 0.40 0.37 1.33 0.32 0.35 0.43 0.36 1.46 1.38 1.45 EPS adjusted (diluted no. of shares) 0.27 0.30 0.40 0.37 1.33 0.32 0.35 0.43 0.36 1.46 1.38 1.45 Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.30 1.45

SALES, EURm Consumer Customers 220 239 247 244 949 233 239 242 234 948 919 933 Corporate Customers 142 151 148 157 598 149 144 142 144 579 539 555

Total 361 390 395 401 1,547 382 384 384 378 1,528 1,458 1,488

SALES GROWTH, Y/Y % Consumer Customers -5.0 -0.2 0.9 -1.5 -1.4 6.1 0.3 -1.9 -4.2 -0.1 -3.1 1.5 Corporate Customers -5.9 0.8 4.1 6.1 1.2 5.2 -4.7 -4.2 -8.3 -3.2 -6.9 3.0 Total -5.3 0.2 2.1 1.4 -0.4 5.8 -1.7 -2.8 -5.8 -1.3 -4.5 2.1

EBIT, EURm Consumer Customers 34 44 56 52 187 46 49 60 51 205 197 201 Corporate Customers 27 25 31 29 111 27 24 30 28 108 104 108

Total 61 69 87 81 298 72 73 90 79 313 301 309

EBIT margin, % Consumer Customers 15.7 18.6 22.6 21.4 19.7 19.5 20.4 24.7 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.5 Corporate Customers 18.7 16.4 20.9 18.4 18.6 17.8 16.7 20.9 19.2 18.6 19.3 19.5 Total 16.9 17.7 21.9 20.2 19.2 18.8 19.0 23.3 20.9 20.5 20.6 20.8

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

8(14)

INCOME STATEMENT, EURm 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Sales 1,430 1,463 1,530 1,554 1,547 1,528 1,458 1,488 Sales growth (%) -3.7 2.3 4.6 1.5 -0.4 -1.3 -4.5 2.1 Costs -947 -978 -1,023 -1,052 -1,039 -1,001 -948 -980 Reported EBITDA 484 485 507 501 508 527 510 509 Extraordinary items in EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA margin (%) 33.8 33.1 33.2 32.3 32.8 34.5 35.0 34.2 Depreciation -216 -217 -211 -202 -210 -213 -209 -200 EBITA 268 268 296 299 298 313 301 309 Goodwill amortization / writedown 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reported EBIT 268 268 296 299 298 313 301 309 EBIT margin (%) 18.7 18.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 20.5 20.6 20.8 Net financials -32 -31 -30 -27 -26 -26 -24 -23 Pre-tax profit 236 237 266 272 272 287 277 286 Extraordinary items 0 -40 -1 -3 -17 -4 0 0 Taxes -58 -59 -64 -60 -62 -57 -58 -56 Minority shares -1 -1 0 1 0 2 2 2 Net profit 177 150 201 209 197 228 221 231

BALANCE SHEET, EURm Assets Fixed assets 766 741 727 724 859 821 795 786 % of sales 54 51 48 47 56 54 55 53 Goodwill 782 798 797 797 832 832 832 832 % of sales 55 55 52 51 54 54 57 56 Inventory 31 39 40 59 56 52 47 45 % of sales 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 Receivables 329 343 364 376 426 421 403 410 % of sales 23 23 24 24 28 28 28 28 Liquid funds 31 32 59 40 138 136 130 133 % of sales 2 2 4 3 9 9 9 9 Total assets 1,965 1,972 1,999 2,009 2,324 2,273 2,215 2,213 Liabilities Equity 900 833 840 845 862 887 900 924 % of sales 63 57 55 54 56 58 62 62 Deferred taxes 27 27 19 17 21 0 0 0 % of sales 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Interest bearing debt 750 808 847 886 1,123 1,091 1,031 999 % of sales 52 55 55 57 73 71 71 67 Non-interest bearing current liabilities 263 281 260 243 267 244 233 238 % of sales 18 19 17 16 17 16 16 16 Other interest free debt 21 18 27 15 49 49 49 49 % of sales 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 Total liabilities 1,965 1,972 1,999 2,009 2,324 2,273 2,215 2,213

CASH FLOW, EURm

+ EBITDA 484 485 507 501 508 527 510 509 - Net financial items -32 -31 -30 -27 -26 -26 -24 -23 - Taxes -58 -59 -64 -60 -62 -57 -58 -56 - Increase in Net Working Capital 21 -9 -34 -59 -10 -14 12 -1 +/- Other 0 -28 -1 -3 -12 -4 0 0 = Cash flow from operations 414 358 379 352 398 426 440 428 - Capex -165 -207 -197 -193 -385 -175 -183 -190 - Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Divestments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = Net cash flow 249 151 182 159 13 251 257 238 +/- Change in interest-bearing debt -95 59 39 38 237 -32 -60 -32 +/- New issues/buybacks -57 4 8 -2 24 0 0 0 - Paid dividend -94 -221 -203 -203 -204 -204 -207 -207 +/- Change in loan receivables -2 3 0 -3 21 0 0 0 Change in cash 1 -5 27 -11 91 15 -10 -1

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

9(14)

KEY FIGURES 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E M-cap 2,352 2,428 2,623 2,889 3,314 3,314 3,314 Net debt 776 788 846 985 955 901 867 Enterprise value 3,136 3,225 3,476 3,879 4,275 4,222 4,187 Sales 1,463 1,530 1,554 1,547 1,528 1,458 1,488 EBITDA 485 507 501 508 527 510 509 EBIT 268 296 299 298 313 301 309 Pre-tax 237 266 272 272 287 277 286 Earnings 178 202 212 210 232 221 231 Book value 830 837 842 860 885 898 922

Valuation multiples

EV/sales 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 EV/EBITDA 6.5 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.2 EV/EBITA 11.7 10.9 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 13.6 EV/EBIT 11.7 10.9 11.6 13.0 13.6 14.0 13.6 EV/operating cash flow 7.5 8.0 9.3 9.0 9.9 9.2 9.3 EV/cash earnings 7.8 7.8 8.5 9.2 10.0 9.8 9.7 P/E 13.2 12.0 12.4 13.8 14.3 15.0 14.3 P/E excl. goodwill 13.2 12.0 12.4 13.8 14.3 15.0 14.3 P/B 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 P/sales 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 P/CF 5.7 6.0 7.0 6.7 7.7 7.2 7.4 Target EV/EBIT 11.7 11.7 9.9 13.2 15.1 15.6 15.1 Target P/E 16.8 13.4 10.4 14.4 16.3 17.2 16.4 Target P/B 2.8 3.2 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 Per share measures Number of shares 155,773 156,227 156,777 157,005 159,349 159,349 159,349 Number of shares (diluted) 155,773 156,227 156,777 157,005 159,349 159,349 159,349 EPS 1.14 1.30 1.35 1.33 1.46 1.38 1.45 EPS excl. goodwill 1.14 1.30 1.35 1.33 1.46 1.38 1.45 Cash EPS 2.58 2.65 2.62 2.69 2.67 2.70 2.71 Operating cash flow per share 2.67 2.58 2.38 2.76 2.71 2.89 2.81 Capital employed per share 10.33 10.42 10.74 11.75 11.54 11.29 11.22 Book value per share 5.33 5.36 5.37 5.48 5.55 5.64 5.79 Book value excl. goodwill 0.20 0.25 0.29 0.18 0.33 0.41 0.56 Dividend per share 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.45 Dividend payout ratio, % 114.0 100.4 96.0 97.4 89.1 93.9 100.0 Dividend yield, % 8.6 8.4 7.8 7.1 6.3 6.3 7.0

Efficiency measures ROE 20.6 24.3 25.3 24.6 26.6 24.7 25.4 ROCE 16.9 18.5 18.1 16.9 17.1 16.7 17.3

Financial ratios Capex/sales, % 14.2 12.9 12.4 24.9 11.5 12.6 12.8 Capex/depreciation excl. goodwill,% 88.2 93.5 95.3 166.4 82.0 87.8 95.1 Net debt/EBITDA, book-weighted 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 Debt/equity, market-weighted 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Equity ratio, book-weighted 42.3 42.0 42.1 37.1 39.0 40.6 41.8 Gearing 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Number of employees, average 3,477 3,757 3,757 3,757 3,757 3,757 3,757 Sales per employee, EUR 420,823 407,240 413,495 411,871 406,598 388,103 396,078 EBIT per employee, EUR 77,078 78,760 79,585 79,265 83,443 80,058 82,200

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

10(14)

COMPANY DESCRIPTION: Elisa is a Finnish telecom operator with fixed operations in Finland and mobile operations in Finland and Estonia.

INVESTMENT CASE:

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE SHARES EURm %

Solidium 16,801,000 349.461 10.5%

Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 6,711,976 139.609 4.2%

Nordea Funds 1,641,438 34.142 1.0%

Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 1,629,335 33.890 1.0%

The State Pension Fund 1,415,000 29.432 0.9%

Schweizerische Nationalbank 1,194,959 24.855 0.7%

City of Helsinki 1,124,690 23.394 0.7%

Kpy Sijoitus Oy 1,077,163 22.405 0.7%

Svenska Litteratursallskapet I Finland 675,342 14.047 0.4%

ELO Mutual Pension Insurance Company 493,000 10.254 0.3%

Ten largest 32,763,903 681.489 21%

Residual 126,585,097 2,632.970 79%

Total 159,349,000 3,314.459 100%

EARNINGS CALENDAR

OTHER EVENTS

April 02, 2014 AGM

COMPANY MISCELLANEOUS

CEO: Veli-Matti Mattila Ratavartijankatu 5, Helsinki

CFO: Jari Kinnunen Tel: +358 10 260 00

IR: Vesa Sahivirta

Page 11: ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key . Elisa presented data points that suggest data

EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

11(14)

DEFINITIONS

P/E

share per Earnings

share per Price

EPS

shares of Number

interestminority taxes income

taxes and itemsary extraordin before Profit

+−

P/Sales

Sales

cap Market

DPS

share per period financial the for Dividend

P/BV

share per provisions taxed equity rs'Shareholde

share per Price+

CEPS

shares of Number

operations from flow cash Gross

P/CF

share per flow cash Operating

share per Price

EV/Share

shares of Number

valueEnterprise

EV (Enterprise value)

valuemarket at companies associated of share

valuemarket at interestminority debt net cap Market

−++

Sales/Share

shares of Number

Sales

Net debt

assets financial debt bearing Interest −

EBITDA/Share

shares of Number

onamortisati and ondepreciati tax, interest, before Earnings

EV/Sales

Sales

valueEnterprise

EBIT/Share

shares of Numberprofit Operating

EV/EBITDA

onamortisati and ondepreciati tax, interest, before Earnings

valueEnterprise

EAFI/Share

shares of Number

profitPretax

EV/EBIT

profit Operating

valueEnterprise

Capital employed/Share

shares of Number

debt bearing interest non assets Total −

Div yield, %

share per Price

share per Dividend

Total assets

total sheet Balance

Payout ratio, %

interestminority taxes income taxes and itemsary extraordin before Earnings

dividends Total+−

Interest coverage (x)

items Financialprofit Operating

Net cash/Share

shares of Number

debt bearing interest assets Financial −

Asset turnover (x)

(average) total sheet Balance

Turnover

ROA, %

(average) payable accounts and received advances term long

debt term short free interest total sheet Balanceitemsary extraordin income financial profit Operating

−−

++

Debt/Equity, %

provisions taxed interestminority equity rs'Shareholde

debt bearing Interest++

ROCE, %

(average) debt bearing interest non total sheet Balance

costs financial other expenses interest itemsary extraordin before Profit−

++

Equity ratio, %

loans free interest assets Total

provisions taxed interestminority equity rs'Shareholde−

++

ROE, %

(average) provisions taxed interestminority equity rs'Shareholdetaxes income taxes and itemsary extraordin before Profit

++−

CAGR, %

yearper growth Average rate growth annual Cumulative =

Page 12: ELISA - Genisysportal.genisys.fi/.../Image/2014_10/Elisa_28_10_14.pdf · CMD: Data monetization continues, value-added services key . Elisa presented data points that suggest data

EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

12(14)

Important Disclosures Evli Research uses 12-month target prices. Target prices are defined by utilizing analytical techniques based on financial theory including (but not limited to) discounted cash flow analysis and comparative valuation. The selection of valuation methods depends on different circumstances. Target prices may be altered on the basis of new information coming to light in the underlying company or changes in interest rates, changes in foreign exchange rates, other securities prices or market indices or outlook for the aforementioned factors or other factors that may change the conditions of financial markets. Investment recommendations are defined as follows: Target price compared to share price Recommendation < -5 % SELL -5 – (+5) % REDUCE 5 – 15 % ACCUMULATE > 15 % BUY Evli Research’s investment recommendation of the analyzed company is in general updated 2 – 4 per year.

The graph above shows the distribution of Evli Research’s recommendations of companies under coverage in 25th of August 2014. If recommendation is not given, it is not mentioned here.

Name(s) of the analyst(s): Ervasti This research report has been prepared by Evli Bank plc (“Evli”). None of the analysts contributing to this report, persons under their guardianship or corporations under their control have a position in the shares of the company or related securities. Each analyst responsible for the content of this report assures that the expressed views accurately reflect the personal views of each analyst on the covered companies and securities. Each analyst assures that (s)he has not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Neither Evli nor any company within the Evli Group has major beneficial shareholdings in the company. Shareholding is considered major, if it is five (5) % or more of any class of common equity securities of the company. The investors should be aware that Evli or any company within the Evli Group may from time to time have shares of the company whose securities are subject of the report. Neither Evli nor any company within the Evli Group have managed or co-managed a public offering of the company’s securities during the last 12 months prior to, received compensation for investment banking services from the company during the last 12 months prior to the publication of the research report. Evli or another company within the Evli Group does not have an agreement with the company to perform market making services. For the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interests with respect to this report, there is an information barrier (Chinese wall) between Investment Research and Corporate Finance units concerning unpublished investment banking services to the company. The remuneration of the analyst(s) is not tied directly or indirectly to investment banking transactions performed by Evli or any company within Evli Group. This report has not been disclosed to the company prior to its dissemination. This report is provided and intended for informational purposes only and may not be used or considered under any circumstances as an offer to sell or buy any securities or as advice to trade any securities. This report is based on sources Evli considers to be correct and reliable. The sources include information providers Reuters and Bloomberg, stock-exchange releases from the companies and other company news, Statistics Finland and articles in newspapers and magazines. However, Evli does not guarantee the materialization, correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, estimates or forecasts expressed or implied in the report. In addition, circumstantial changes may have an influence on opinions and estimates presented in this report. The opinions and estimates presented are valid at the moment of their publication and they can be changed without a separate announcement. Neither Evli nor any company within the Evli Group are responsible for amending, correcting or updating any information, opinions or estimates contained in this report. Neither Evli nor any company within the Evli Group will compensate any direct or consequential loss caused by or derived from the use of the information represented in this publication. All information published in this report is for the original recipient’s private and internal use only. Evli reserves all rights to the report. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without the written permission of Evli.

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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This report or its copy may not be published or distributed in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan or South Africa. The publication or distribution of this report in certain other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law. Persons into whose possession this report comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. Distribution in the United States: This research report may be distributed in the United States by Pareto Securities Inc. (“Pareto”), via the terms of a 15a6 agreement and is intended for distribution in the United States to institutional Investors only. Pareto is a wholly owned subsidiary of Pareto Securities A.S., Norway. It is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA & SIPC. U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report should contact Pareto at 150 East 52nd Street, 29th Floor, New York, NY 10022, Tel. 1 212 829 4200. Investment products provided by or through Pareto or Evli are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by Pareto or Evli. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Fluctuations in the values of national currencies, as well as the potential for governmental restrictions on currency movements, can significantly erode principal and investment returns. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Pareto and/or Evli may have material conflicts of interest to the production or distribution of this research report which are disclosed above. Evli is supervised by the Finnish Financial Supervision Authority.

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EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ELISA Telecommunication services/Finland, October 28, 2014 Company update

Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com

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Contact information SALES AND TRADING HELSINKI Panu Jousimies (Head) +358 9 4766 9109 Sales Trading ETFs and Derivatives Pasi Väisänen +358 9 4766 9120 Ville Kuokka (Head) +358 9 4766 9130 Domestic Sales

Pekka Somer

+358 9 4766 9120

Joachim Dannberg Tobias Björk

+358 9 4766 9123 +358 9 4766 9130

Ari Laine +358 9 4766 9115 European Sales Lauri Vehkaluoto +358 9 4766 9130 Lauri Ahokanto +358 9 4766 9117 Jussipekka Aumo +358 9 4766 9203 Niclas Helenius +358 9 4766 9116 Derivatives Trading Corporate Bonds Sami Järvinen +358 9 4766 9110 Structured Investments sales and trading Heikki Savijoki +358 9 4766 9726 Jukka Hyvönen +46 8 407 8138 Jaakko Soini +358 9 4766 9201 Jaakko Soini +358 9 4766 9201 SALES AND TRADING STOCKHOLM Urban Lawesson (Head) Thomas Kåhrström

+46 8 407 8021 +46 8 407 8018

EQUITY RESEARCH Consumer Discretionary, Construction, Packaging, Retail

Capital Goods

Mika Karppinen (Head of Research, Finland)

+358 9 4766 9643 Elina Riutta +358 9 4766 9204

Banks, Insurance, Real Estate Forestry, Pulp&Paper, Chemicals, Utilities Jaakko Tyrväinen +358 9 4766 9314 Markku Järvinen +358 9 4766 9635 Metals & Mining, Industrials Food and Beverage, Health Care Antti Kansanen +358 9 4766 9149 Joonas Häyhä +358 9 4766 9662 Technology, Software, Telecommunications, Media Strategist Mikko Ervasti +358 9 4766 9205 Valtteri Ahti +358 9 4766 9773

EVLI BANK PLC Aleksanterinkatu 19 A P.O. Box 1081 FIN-00101 Helsinki, FINLAND Phone +358 9 476 690 Fax +358 9 634 382 Internet www.evli.com E-mail [email protected] EVLI BANK PLC, STOCKHOLMSFILIAL Kungsgatan 27, P.O. Box 16354 SE-111 56 Stockholm Sverige [email protected] Tel +46 (0)8 407 8000 Fax +46 (0)8 407 8001

EVLI SECURITIES AS (PART OF EVLI GROUP) ESTONIA Tartu mnt. 2, EE-10145 Tallinn Phone +372-6405700 E-mail [email protected] LITHUANIA J. Jasinskio 16b, LT-01112 Vilnius Phone +370 5254 6720 E-mail [email protected]