Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change &...
-
Upload
buck-cooper -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change &...
![Page 1: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Elevation AMSL = 1.5 mArea = 1.5 km2Population = 25,000
400m
132m
Source: SOPAC
Climate Change & Climate Change & Impacts on SIDSImpacts on SIDS
Rolph PayetIPCC Lead Author
International Parliamentary Hearing for SIDS Legislators6-8 Nov 2009 Port Vila, VANUATU
![Page 2: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Is there evidence?Is there evidence?
Long-term observations
Changes across temporal & spatial scales
Modelling changesDriving forces and
factors of changeUncertaintiesSearching for signals
![Page 3: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why so much controversy?
Ramsdorf (2007) The rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. So IPPC estimates are too conservative!
Holgate et al. (2007) There is no such relationship but the IPPC estimates are too conservative! The observations are underestimated.
![Page 4: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What is causing Global Warming? What is causing Global Warming?
![Page 5: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The implications of inactionThe implications of inaction
![Page 6: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The domino effectThe domino effect
![Page 7: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Islands are Highly Vulnerable
Source: Briguglio, 1995
![Page 8: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AOSIS PositionAOSIS Position
Stabilise CO2 at 350 ppmGlobal average surface temperature
increase should be limited to well below 1.5º C above pre-industrial levels
Global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2015.
Global CO2 reductions of greater than 85% are required by 2050.
Is that acheivable?
![Page 9: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How much can we reduce?How much can we reduce?
![Page 10: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Address Development PrioritiesAddress Development Priorities
To Sustain global economic growthShift to low-carbon energy economyImplement adaptation measuresAddress povertyAddress trade distortionsTo Restore and Enhance Natural CapitalHalt Forest DegradationRestore resilient ecosystemsProtect existing natural capitalAddress social equity and basic rights
![Page 11: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Benefits of Green PowerThe Benefits of Green Power
Shifting the world onto a low-carbon path could eventually benefit the economy by $2.5 trillion a year. (Stern, 2006)
Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.
By 2050, markets for low-carbon technologies could be worth at least $500bn.
![Page 12: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Decreasing cost of PV technologiesDecreasing cost of PV technologies
![Page 13: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
A Copenhagen PackageA Copenhagen Package
Agreement on mechanisms that would lead to ‘effective’ reduction in GHG to 350 ppm
Policies/Taxes/Cap & Trade mechanisms which addresses global GHG reduction and reduce trade distortions
Consideration in enhancing/restoring ecosystem value and services in investment projects
Promote creation of sustainable green jobs across the planet Clear identification of financial/economic benefits of CDM and
other trading mechanisms Apply the precautionary principle in new schemes to finance
mitigation Apply the polluter pay principle and the common but
differentiated responsibility principle in financing instruments Secure and maximise output/returns for adaptation funding Address risk through financial mechanisms that encourage
resilience building and adaptive design & management
![Page 14: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Take home messages!Take home messages!
1. Climate change is a reality and happening2. Action needs to be taken now to reduce vulnerability
and avoid long-term costs associated with climate change impacts.
3. Early planning and proactive approaches are needed.
4. Further knowledge development and applied research is critical to build capacity for adaptation and resilience building
5. Climate change has important links to the economy, noting especially the effects of the recent food and energy crisis, as well as the impact of recent extreme events on coastal infrastructure and tourism.
![Page 16: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The Sea Level Rise FoundationThe Sea Level Rise Foundation
![Page 17: Elevation AMSL = 1.5 m Area = 1.5 km2 Population = 25,000 400m 132m Source: SOPAC Climate Change & Impacts on SIDS Rolph Payet IPCC Lead Author International.](https://reader038.fdocuments.in/reader038/viewer/2022110403/56649e765503460f94b77978/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Thank YouThank Youwww.sealevelrise.blogspot.com
Register and support us