Elena Telegina

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Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy Business Department Doctor of Economics, Professor Russian University of Oil and Gas Baltic Forum, May 2012 Energy Markets: New Challenges

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Elena Telegina. Energy Markets: New Challenges. Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Dean, International Energy Business Department Doctor of Economics, Professor Russian University of Oil and Gas. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Elena Telegina

Page 1: Elena Telegina

Elena Telegina

Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy SecurityCorresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences

Dean, International Energy Business DepartmentDoctor of Economics, Professor

Russian University of Oil and Gas

Baltic Forum, May 2012

Energy Markets: New Challenges

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Huge gas reserves targeting Europe, tcm, 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN

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Gas Supply to EU, 2010, Bcm

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN

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Largest Oil and Gas Producers and Importers, 2010

Producers Bcm % world total

USA 611,0 19,3

Russia 588,9 18,4

Canada 159,8 5,0

Iran 131,2 4,4

Qatar 116,4 3,3

World Total 3193,0 100

Net importers Bcm

Japan 93,4

Germany 92,8

Italy 75,3

France 48,8

Turkey 36,6

World Total 975,2

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, ENGIN

Oil

Gas

Producers Mln t % world total

Russia 505,1 12,9

Saudi Arabia 467,8 12,0

USA 339,1 8,7

Iran 203,0 5,2

China 203,0 5, 2

World Total 3913,7 100

Net importers Mln t

EU 596,8

USA 577,1

China 294,5

Japan 225,7

India 178,5

World Total 2633,5

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US: Hi-Supply Asia: Hi-Demand EU: Oversupply

- Competitive Pricing- Indexation and Hubs- Indexation ENGIN

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EU Priority Corridors For Electricity, Gas and Oil

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Main Gas Pipelines and Hubs in Europe

RWE, ENGIN

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TURKEY: Not Only a Transit Corridor But Also an Energy Hub

South Stream

US Energy Administration

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157

Russian Gas Production, Bcm, 1997-2011 GAZPROM Independent Companies

Export Domestic Market

337 338 341

273331 341 359 352

324294 284 286

241289 286

197 198 197

194

181 186189 201

231263 265 264

221

218 227

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

мл

рд

.куб

Внутренний рынок Экспорт

9

28

47

6169 73

77

91 94 95

106115

121

142

157

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

мл

рд

.куб

277286

ENGIN, companies

2011

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Russian Gas Production, Bcm

Gazprom, ENGIN

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Russian Oil&Gas Shelf Production

Category Shelf IRR, % Royalty,%1 Baltic and Azov Seas 16,5 302 Black Sea Shallow shelf 18,5 153 South of Barents and Okhotsk

Seas20,5  10

4 North of Barents and Okhotsk Seas and Eastern Arctic

22 5

* Continental shelf, Caspian Sea 16-22 5

Planned Fiscal Regime for Shelf Projects

Russian Minenergo, Russian Government, ENGIN

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Indicative costs for potential gas sources to Europe, 2020

IEA,ENGIN

1. Algeria piped gas2. Qatar LNG3. Algeria LNG4. Nigeria LNG5. Yamal piped gas6. Russia LNG7. US shale (base case)8. Germany shale onshore (base case)9. Poland shale (worst case)10. Germany shale onshore (worst case)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Top Three Countries by Economic Dominance(% share of global economic power*)

*Weighted by share of world GDP, trade and net capital exports by A.Subramanian

1870 1973 2010 2030 forecast

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www.desertec.org

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World Energy Supply by Source, 2010

Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010

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Thank you!