Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

NARUC Annual Meeting

November 14, 2007

Hank Courtright

Senior Vice President

2© 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

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EIA Base Case 2007

CO2 Reductions … Technical Potential*

Technology EIA 2007 Reference Target

Efficiency Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr

Renewables 30 GWe by 2030 70 GWe by 2030

Nuclear Generation 12.5 GWe by 2030 64 GWe by 2030

Advanced Coal Generation

No Existing Plant Upgrades

40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020–2030

150 GWe Plant Upgrades

46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030

CCS None Widely Deployed After 2020

PHEV None10% of New Vehicles by 2017;

+2%/yr Thereafter

DER < 0.1% of Base Load in 2030 5% of Base Load in 2030

* Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.


Technology EPRI Analysis Target

EfficiencyEfficiency Reduced Load Growth by ~30%

RenewablesRenewables70 GWe by 2030

(2X EIA projection)

Nuclear GenerationNuclear Generation64 GWe by 2030

(~ 50 Plants > EIA)

Advanced Coal Advanced Coal GenerationGeneration

Existing Plant Efficiency Upgrades

New Plant Efficiency 46% by 2020; 49% in 2030

Carbon Capture and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)Storage (CCS)

All Coal Plants after 2020

Capture 90% of CO2

Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicles (PHEV)(PHEV)

~1/3 of New Vehicle Sales in 2030

Distributed Energy Distributed Energy Resources (DER)Resources (DER)

5% of Load “off-grid” in 2030

EPRI “PRISM” - CO2 Reductions


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Prism electric sector CO2 emission profile

Assumed Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint

PRISM profile nearly matches economically optimal amount of CO2 electric sector reductions required if

economy-wide emissions are held flat from 2010-20, then decline at 3%/year thereafter

Year


Electricity Technology Scenarios

Full Portfolio Limited Portfolio

Supply-Side

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Available Unavailable

New NuclearProduction Can

ExpandExisting Production

Levels ~100 GW

Renewables Costs Decline Costs Decline Slower

New Coal and Gas Improvements Improvements

Demand-Side

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

Available Unavailable

End-Use EfficiencyAccelerated

ImprovementsImprovements


U.S. Electric Generation - Full PortfolioCoal

w/CCS

Gas

w/CCS Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

SolarOil

Demand Reduction

Demand with No Policy

Biomass

Full Portfolio (economic allocation)

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Coal

Coal with CCS

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas and non-captured coal are the

only supply options paying a CO2 cost

The vast majority of

electricity supply is CO2-free

Wind

Public Policy (RPS) can modify

this economic allocation


U.S. Electric Generation – Limited PortfolioCoal

w/CCS

Gas

w/CCS Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

SolarOil

Demand Reduction


Biomass

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Limited Portfolio (economic allocation)

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Gas (with half the CO2 of coal)

pays a significant CO2 cost

With a less de-carbonized supply,

electricity load must decline

to meet the CO2 emissions target

WindHydro

Biomass


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*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

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With a de-carbonized electricity supply,

other parts of the economy pay a CO2 cost…

not the electricity sector


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*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide

Year

With a less de-carbonized supply,

the electricity sector pays a significant

CO2 cost…along with other sectors


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Wholesale Electricity Price

Full

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2000

*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$Year

In the Full Portfolio the price of

electricity has a low CO2 cost

component and increases less


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Wholesale Electricity Price

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*Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$Year

In the Limited Portfolio the price of

electricity has a higher CO2 cost

component and increases substantially


Full Portfolio

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Limited Portfolio

+260% +45%

Increase in Real Electricity Prices…2000 to 2050

Coal

w/CCS

Gas

w/CCS Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

SolarOil

Demand Reduction


Biomass

Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap*

*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr


Achieving the Full Portfolio

1. Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs.

2. A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions.

3. Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel.

4. Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies.

ALL of the following technology advancements will be needed in order to have a full portfolio of technologies available for

reducing CO2 emissions over the coming decades:

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

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