Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management
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Transcript of Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management
Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management
Guenter ConzelmannCenter for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems AnalysisDecision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)Argonne National Laboratory9700 South Cass AvenueArgonne, IL 60439
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ITERATION
SupplyDemandBalance
ImpactsAnalysis
ReviewEvaluate
EconomicAnalysis
EnergyDemandAnalysis
EnergyResourceEvaluation
EnergyTechnologyDefinition
Electricity Demand/Load Analysis is part of a Multi-Step Long-term Energy Planning Process
3
The Analysis Typically Starts with Developing Macroeconomic Projections and Translating them into Projections of Future Demand/Load
Macro-EconomicInformation
Time-series extrapolationInput/output modelEconometric model
Other models
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illio
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Baseline
High Growth
Energy DemandFinal Energy (simple)
Useful Energy (advanced)
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Besides overall macroeconomics, drivers include sectoral shifts, absolute and relative price trends, technology/efficiency trends, behavior, etc.
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In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (1)
Typically, we see a distinct daily profile of consumption that often varies by season
Week 1 (Mo – Sun) Week 2 (Mo – Sun)
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In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (2)
We also usually observe an annual or seasonal variation in loads; may vary by region
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (1)
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (2)
Location of the load matters, particularly if transmission is congested; will impact benefits of smart-grid implementation
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Hourly Loads - Location A
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Hourly Loads - Location B
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (3)
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Load Installed Capacity
The system is typically sized to reliably meet
this peak demand
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (4)
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Planned Outages Forced Outages Load
Installed Capacity Online Capacity
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Understanding the Load Profile is Important for Generation System Expansion, or Investment Planning
The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology selection
Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and operational capabilities and limitations
Served by low-cost base load generators(e.g. nuclear)
Served by medium-cost flexiblegenerators (e.g., coal, combined cycles)
Served by high-cost generators(e.g., gas turbines), also peaking hydroor pumped storage
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New England(New Hampshire Electric Cooperative, 2008)
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0 1460 2920 4380 5840 7300 8760
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oad
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In Order to Better Understand the Overall Load Pattern, it Helps to Decompose the Load into Different Components
IndustryIndustry TransportTransport
ResidentialResidential CommercialCommercial AgricultureAgriculture
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential
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Single Family - January, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend0
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Single Family - July, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Multi Family - January, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Multi Family - July, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
Source: comed.com
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential
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Single Family - January, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend0
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Single Family - July, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Multi Family - January, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Multi Family - July, w/o Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
Source: comed.com
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential (2)
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Single Family - January, with Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Multi Family - January, with Elec Heat
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
Source: comed.com
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Commercial
Source: comed.com
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Medium-Size Customer - January
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Medium-Size Customer - April
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Medium-Size Customer - July
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Medium-Size Customer -October
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Industrial
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Very Large Customer - January
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Very Large Customer - April
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Very Large Customer - July
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
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Very Large Customer - October
Peak Day Weekday Weekend
Source: comed.com
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Street Lighting
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Jun-21
Dec-21
1919
Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) Must consider how much and how quickly the
load evolves– Rate of PHEV penetration
Must consider locational considerations– Where is new load concentrated
– Will impact transmission congestion, as well as system operations, electricity prices, and carbon emissions
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PHEV
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WECC - April 2020 Moderate:Charge When Arriving @ Home
PHEV Moderate Baseload Base + PHEV Moderate
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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Charge When Arriving @ Home
PHEV Aggressive Baseload Base + PHEV Aggressive
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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Smart Charging
PHEV Aggressive SmartBaseloadBase + PHEV Aggressive Smart
Western InterconnectModel Representation
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles)
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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Charge When Arriving @ Home
PHEV Aggressive Baseload Base + PHEV Aggressive
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles)
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PHEV
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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Smart Charging
PHEV Aggressive SmartBaseloadBase + PHEV Aggressive Smart
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Example Residential Electricity Consumption: What Happens behind the Socket in the Wall…
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Example Residential Electricity Consumption: When was the Last Time you Looked at your Utility Bill?
(and actually understood it….)
14 different fees, charges, taxes
May need to be a rocket scientist...
…or an Einstein
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TN AL LA MS SC KY VA GA
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MD IN OR NE SD NV DE KS
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CO MI
AKNM HI
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ME
Average Monthly Consumption (kWh)
U.S. Average Monthly Consumption (kWh)
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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month?
U.S. Average: 920 kWh
Virginia:1,173 kWh
2008 Average Monthly Residential Electricity Consumption (kWh) by State
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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (2)
Conzelmanns' Average Monthly Electricity Consumption (kWh) 1997-2007
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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (3)
Conzelmanns' Monthly Electricity Consumption (kWh)1997-2007
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0.0
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HI CT NY MA RI AK ME NH NJ VT DE MD CA TX DC NV FL WI PA IL MI AL MS LA AZ CO OH NM GA SC MN VA NC IA AR MT OK TN KS IN OR SD UT WY MO KY NE WA ND WV ID
Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatthour)
U.S. Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatthour)
For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much You Pay for Electricity?
U.S. Average: 11.3 c/kWh
Virginia:9.6 c/kWh
(2008 Average Residential Electricity Price (c/kWh) by State)
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household
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Mon-Sun (June 9 - 15, 2008)
Hourly Energy Price ($/kWh) Hourly Consumption (kWh)
Negative price:-21 c/kWh
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household
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Hourly Energy Price ($/kWh) Hourly Consumption (kWh)
Negative25 cents/kWh
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Even More Detail Can be Added to Improve Understanding of Load Pattern and Identify Efficiency and DSM Potential
Air ConditioningAir Conditioning
AppliancesAppliances
LightingLighting
CookingCooking
WaterWaterheatingheating
SpaceSpaceheatingheating
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The Role of Demand Side Management (1)
Opportunities for demand side management drive investments in smart-grid and advanced metering infrastructure
Goal is to shift load to reduce peak loads– Flattens demand curve
– Reduces generation cost by shifting to low-cost base-load generation
– Reduces maintenance costs
– Avoids/delays infrastructure investments (generation, transmission, distribution)
– Can reduce overall consumption
Early DSM program (starting in 1980s) have primarily focused on commercial and industrial consumers– Mostly direct load control and tiered pricing
Smart-grid technology will impact DSM program focus– Shift from direct load control to dynamic pricing
– Inclusion of residential and small-to-medium businesses
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The Role of Demand Side Management (2)
Direct load control or incentive-based approaches– E.g., interruptible/curtailment rates
Allows utilities to control specific loads (e.g., air conditioning)– Consumer receives billing discount (e.g., fixed monthly
payment for peak months)
Direct load control is offered by many utilities– One-third of utilities offer direct load contol for
residential AC
• Average participation 15%
– About two-thirds offer direct load control to industrial and commercial costumers
Programs have proven cost-effective with substantial savings– 29% average peak load reduction across a sample of
24 programs (Source: eMeter Strategic Consulting, 2007)
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The Role of Demand Side Management (3)
Dynamic Pricing– Almost 1/3 of utilities offer some form of dynamic pricing
– Time of use, critical peak pricing, real-time pricing
– Current pilot programs show significant variation in residential peak load reduction with an average of about 22%
– Impact on overall consumption may be very small
Consumption information and transparency– More frequent billing: Weekly/daily billing estimated to
reduce consumption by 10-13%
– In-home displays, estimated to save 4-15%
– Smart-appliances and building automation may lead to peak reductions of over 40% and a decrease in consumption of about 11%
– Where is my dishwasher control app, my real-time price app???
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)
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Hourly Energy Price ($/kWh) Hourly Consumption (kWh)
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)
Loadguard Price Point10 cents/kWh14 cents/kWh
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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (AFTER)
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Hourly Energy Price ($/kWh) Hourly Consumption (kWh)
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Monthly Savings: Real-time Pricing versus Regulated Tariff
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A Couple of Thoughts on my Personal Real-time Pricing Experiment Substantial cost savings, energy savings unclear
Potential for information overload
Feedback is slow (delayed by a month)
Thermal comfort is compromised
39
Summary
Load profiles play an important role in power system planning
When projecting future loads, changes in the load shape will have to be considered– Due to technology changes (e.g., smart-grid)
– Due to technology introduction (e.g., electric vehicles)
– Due to market/consumer incentives (new pricing mechanisms)
Energy efficiency and demand side management can play a significant role in shaping future load levels and profiles