Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change

Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate ChangePRESENTATION BY STEPHEN E. APLIN, THE HDP GROUP INC.

Steve Aplin www.canadianenergyissues.com Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change

The “Carbon Imperative” of new electric power generation

Public concern over anthropogenic climate change is growing. Public increasing tying carbon with climate change. Public increasingly tying carbon with violent storms. Electricity system planners must heed public concern over climate

change Electricity must be low or zerocarbon—and as close to zero as

possible. Paramount guiding principle in electric power infrastructure must be

ALCARA—As LowCarbon As Reasonably Achievable.

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The paramount criteria of electricity generation in the Age of Climate Change

ALCARA—As LowCarbon As Reasonably Achievable. Electricity must be low carbon. Electricity must be cheap. AND reliable.

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Introducing the Electricity CarbonEmission and Retail Price (ECERP) Matrix

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I. High carbon, cheap II. High carbon, expensive

IV. Low carbon, cheap III. Low carbon, expensive

Price

CO

2 in

ten

sity



ECERP Matrix situates electricity from a jurisdiction, allows immediate comparison with other jurisdictions

The basic unit of grid electricity is the kilowatthour (kWh). What is the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of one kWh from a given

grid? ... and what price does the customer have to pay for that kWh?

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Paramount criteria in practice: aim is to be in Quadrant IV of the ECERP Matrix

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Being in Quadrant IV ensures societal goals are met

Lowcarbon electricity ensures public concern is assuaged. Lowcarbon electricity simply good for environment. Cheap electricity ensures affordability, promotes the economic and

societal goals of jurisdiction. Lowcarbon, cheap electricity makes largescale electrification of

currently fossilpowered activities—transportation, industry, space heating—feasible.

This will ensure a Quantum Leap in CO2 emission reductions.

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How do you get into Quadrant IV? See which jurisdictions are in Quadrant IV now. See which jurisdictions are NOT in Quadrant IV. Do what Quadrant IV jurisdictions are doing. DON’T do what Quadrant II jurisdictions are doing. Quadrant II is the worst Quadrant to be in: power is dirty and

expensive.

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The ECERP Matrix in the real world (2010): who was in Quadrant IV? Quadrant II?

Let’s see.

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Quadrant IV jurisdictions in 2010 Finland France Switzerland Sweden Ontario

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Quadrant II jurisdictions in 2010 Germany Denmark

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What do Quadrant IV jurisdictions have in common?

Significant amounts of nuclear power feeding their grids.

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What do Quadrant II jurisdictions have in common?

National emphasis on supporting “renewable” energy: mostly wind and solar.

Small or declining amounts of nuclear.

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Recap: How do you get into Quadrant IV of the ECERP Matrix?

See which jurisdictions are in Quadrant IV See which jurisdictions are NOT in Quadrant IV Do what Quadrant IV jurisdictions are doing DON’T do what Quadrant II jurisdictions are doing

Quadrant II is the worst Quadrant to be in: power is dirty and expensive

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The ECERP Matrix

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Electricity generation infrastructure planning in the Age of Climate Change

Environment

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