Electricity for all€¦ · Greece Capacity payment 9 11.000 PJM Capacity market 5.5 136.000 UK...
Transcript of Electricity for all€¦ · Greece Capacity payment 9 11.000 PJM Capacity market 5.5 136.000 UK...
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Electricity for all
Dr. Matti Supponen
Kyiv, December 2019
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Westinghouse, Lenin Tesla, Edison,
Siemens
SOURCE: Wikipedia2
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Miguel and Matti
3
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Menu
▪ Basics of the electricity system
▪ Roles of different players
▪ How the electricity market works
▪ Network codes
▪ Grid investments
▪ End customers
▪ Flexibility
▪ Generation investments and capacity mechanisms
▪ Future topics
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Voltage = U
▪ Mobile phone charger
▪ Car battery
▪ Electricity socket
▪ Medium voltage
▪ High speed train
▪ High voltage
5
▪ = 5V
▪ = 12V
▪ ~ 230V
▪ ~ 10-20kV
▪ ~ 25kV
▪ ~ 110 – 700kV
pic
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sourc
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Current = I
▪ Mobile phone charger
▪ Car battery
▪ Electricity socket
▪ Medium voltage
▪ High speed train
▪ High voltage
6
▪ = 1A
▪ = 300A
▪ ~ 16A
▪ ~ 500A
▪ ~ 300A
▪ ~ 100 – 2000A
pic
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g.a
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sola
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▪ = 5W
▪ = 3kW
▪ ~ 4kW
▪ ~ 300kW
▪ ~ 8MW
▪ ~ 50MW
▪ ~ 2000MW
Power = U* I
▪ Mobile phone charger
▪ Car battery
▪ Flat iron
▪ Rue de Mot 24
▪ High speed train
▪ Arc furnace
▪ Berlin
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Energy = P*t
▪ Mobile phone charger
▪ Car battery
▪ Flat iron
▪ High speed train
▪ Arc furnace
▪ Windmill
▪ Comb. cycle gas turbine
▪ Berlin
▪ ~ 1kWh
▪ ~ 10kWh
▪ ~ 100kWh
▪ ~ 10GWh
▪ ~ 200GWh
▪ ~ 10GWh
▪ ~ 2TWh
▪ ~ 14TWh
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Physical value chain for electricity
9
generation transmission distribution end consumer
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Generator
© George Campbell 1993
10
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Rotor
SOURCE: Tennessee Valley Authority
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3 phase alternating current
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Synchronous zones in Europe
IPS/UPS
Continental Europe
Nordic
UKBaltic
14
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SOURCE: Cigre papers, ABB
Synchronous zones in China
15
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Wind generator
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Solarpanel
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Hydro power plant
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Combined cycle gas turbine
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Coal power station
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Nuclear power station
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Transformer
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Step-up transformer
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Substation
Pristina 24
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Overhead line
SOURCE: Statnett 25
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Substation
Praha Sever SOURCE: Eltodo 26
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Undersea cable
Praha Sever SOURCE: Eltodo 27
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380kV cable in Berlin
Source: Wikipedia28
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Converter - easy part
29
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Converter - difficult part
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Converter - done
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Converter - built
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Back-to-back
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Back-to-back station Etzenricht
SOURCE: Wikimedia 34
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Good old times
35
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New roles
DSO
ProducerTrader
Regulator
TSO
End consumer
Supplier
Powerexchange 36
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Regulator's life is not always easy
37
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Power market
38
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Power market
Sellers
Buyers
Liquidity
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Coal power in duty, gas power stations not in the money
Oil
10 20 30 40 6050 70 80 90 100
load
35 €/MWh
Renewables Nuclear Lignite
1153*
Coal
882**
Gas
440** g CO2/kWh
not in the market
GW
* www.co2-emissionen-vergleich.de** E-Control-Referenzwerte
Merit Order Austria/Germany 2014
40
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Nordic electricity market without EU ETS
41
Gas
turb
ines
100 200 400
Hydro (average year) Nuclear
300
Variable
generation
costs
(€/MWh)
Generation
capacity
(TWh/a)
Imp
orts
Ru
ssia
Win
d
Demand
Market price
for electricity
Co
al
co
nd
en
sin
g
CHP
Oil c
on
den
sin
g
Imp
orts
Germ
an
ySOURCE: Federation of Finnish Technology industries
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Nord pool spot
42
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EPEX Germany/Austria
Price for 13.1.2015 hour 11-1243
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Market coupling
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Singlematching
800MW
1500MW
1000MW
800MW
100MW
40€/MWh
42€/MWh
45€/MWh50€/MWh
47€/MWh
+2300MW
+0MW
-700MW
+900MW
-2500MW
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REGIONAL DAY AHEAD IMPLICIT AUCTIONS
North West Europe
(NWE)
Price coupling
Poland Poland coupled within NWE
through SwePol- and LitPol -link
Czech – Slovak –
Hungary-Romania
Price coupling
Source: APX, updated by Matti Supponen
Day-ahead market coupling status in December 2019
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EPEX + EXAA
(NL 30%
DE/AT 50%
BE 23%
FR 23%
CH 40%
Nord Pool (94%)
EPEX + Nord Pool (46%)
OMEL (75%)
OPCOM (47%)
IPEX (65%)
South Pool (44%)
OTE (27%)
HUPX (42%)
TGE (18%)
Hellenic Pool (93%)
IBEX (8%)
SEMO (100%)
Share of day-ahead spot trading of consumption in 2016
47
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25,2
28,7
25,1
29,2
32,5
36,529,0
32,3
36,6
36,8
39,7
39,4 42,7
42,9
33,3
31,2
29,0
26,7
29,4
Main commercial flow direction
40,447,6
41,6
42,6
41,6
Average spot prices (€) and electricity cross-border tradein Europe (2016)
48
29,0
29,0
29,5
33,1
36,1
36,5
37,931,5
35,435,6
49,141,9
Source: ENTSO-E Transparencyplatform
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Target Model
Intraday
AllocationImplicit
Continuos
Trading and/or
Implicit Auction
Day-Ahead
Implicit
AllocationPrice Coupling
Monthly
Y+1
Futures on Y+1
Explicit Auctions
Physical and/or
Financial
Transmission
Rights
Harmonised GCT
Coordination of
ATCs (Flow
Based and/or
NTC)
Flow
Based where
more efficient
Ba
lan
cin
g, R
ea
l T
ime
Flow
Based where
more efficient
„Physical“ market„Forward“ market
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Source: XBID project
First go-live: June 2018
Second go-live: Autumn 2019
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FCR(Frequency containment
reserve)
mFRR(Manual frequency restoration reserve)
RR(Replacement reserve)
aFRR(Automatic frequency
restoration reserve)
Balancing
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Source: ENTSO-E
LFC Area = Load Frequency Control Area = usually one country
= 15min usually
Balancing
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53
European platforms for standard products
▪ RR market – 2019Project Terre
▪ mFRR market – 2021Project MARI
▪ aFRR market – 2022ENTSO-E aFRR project
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European electricity rules
55
Electrity Directive2009/72/EC
Electrity Regulation EC/714/2009
Agency Regulation EC/713/2009
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European electricity rules
56
Electrity Regulation EC/714/2009
technical & operational rules
marketrules
tariffrules
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European electricity rules
57
technical & operational rules
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European electricity rules
58
marketrules
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European electricity rules
59
tariffrules
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Network codes
Source: ENTSO-E
years/ monthsbefore delivery
D-24hGate closure(1h/30min beforerealtime)
Realtime
60
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Wind
production
Surplus
Deficit 15
25
Storage
hydro
80
3030
25 3510
1025
25
25
2540
50
20
25
20
30
45 5020
10
1010
1025
20
TWh
20 TWh
TWh
TWh
25
40
15
15
10
5
Surplus and deficit areas (2008)
61
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Extension of Renewables in Germany
Source: Boris Schucht, 5o Hertz 62
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Source: Caiso
Duck curve
63
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Renewables need flexible backup, not baseload
Estimated power demand over a week in 2012 and 2020, Germany
Source: Volker Quaschning, HTW
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55.09 €
55.09 €
55.09 €
55.09 €
63.82 €
62.82 €
57.78 €
63.82 €
90.00 €
114.54 €
58.28 €
1375 MW
91.96 €
67.25 €
870 MW
538 MW
1505 MW
593 MW
3235 MW
383 MW
38.40 €
420 MW
108.00 €
Prices & flows
66
Wind speed in Kiel ~15 m/s
Phase angle map from ELES
8.12.2011
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Average unschueduled flows (2011, 2012, in MWh/h)
Sourc
e:
TH
EM
A C
onsultin
g G
roup
67
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Matti’s proposal for electricity spot-market price zones in Europe
68
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Or is nodal pricing better?
69
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~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~
Transmission
380/220kV
Distribution
110kV
Distribution
Virtuelle Erzeugung
Virtuelle Last
~~~
~~~~~
~
)*
Overlay network
Source: Klaus Kleinekorte in VDE DACH 2010 conference
Overlay network?
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Strom-autobahnen
71
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Source: FSR encyclopedia
Link between wholesale and retail
72
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Smart homes … the future is now!
73
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Smart meters and grids
74
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SOURCE: Wikipedia
Influence of demand response on the price
75
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Source: Helen Sävel system
Price based demand response
76
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SOURCE: Quora
Load control = incentive based demand response
77
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Source: SEDC 2017
Aggregators
78
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Dispatching
79
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Source: ENTSO-E
TSOs' Regional Security CooperationInitiatives
80
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Investments
81
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Source: Zachmann, Bruegel
Capital cost decrease is no physical law
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Levelized cost of electricity in Germany
83
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Source: Lion Hirth NEON
The wind and solar value drop
84
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Who takes the risk?
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014Modified by Matti
Feed-in tariffs
Auctions
85
Ratepayer
Investors
Quotas
AuctionsRegulation
Feed-in tariffs
SubsidiesMarketbased
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Source: Thema consulting
Capacity mechanisms
86
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Capacitymechanisms
87
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Capacitymechanisms
Christmas and New Year‘sAddresses by European Heads of States
88
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Who does what(or is planning to)?
… regarding capacity mechanisms
89
Variation in models reflects the issues and political perceptions
decentralisedmechanism
system widecentral machanism
capacity payment
strategic reserve
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SOURCE: Thema consulting
Market Market design
Per gross
electricity
generated
€/MWh
Committed
capacity
MW
Ireland Capacity payment 20 7.000
Greece Capacity payment 9 11.000
PJM Capacity market 5.5 136.000
UK Capacity market 5 49.000
UK Strategic reserve 4 2.000
Spain Capacity payment 2.7 25.000
Italy Capacity payment 0.5 -
Finland Strategic reserve 0.3 600
Norway Strategic reserve 0.2 300
Sweden Strategic reserve 0.1 2.000
Capacity payment vs. strategic reserve in Europe
90
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Reversibility of capacity mechanisms
91
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Future is uncertain
92
Source: PhD thesis of Stefano Moret, EPFL“Strategic planning under uncertainty”
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Future issuesregardingelectricity markets
• Capacity mechanisms
• New forms of trading (forexample peer-to-peer)
• Local markets (including DSO congestion management)
• Role of DSOs vs. TSOs
• Concepts for demandresponse
Design issues
93
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Future issuesregardingelectricity markets
• Cybersecurity, Internet ofThings, Big data
• Who will manage dataplatforms?
• More active control of assetsfor balancing
Digitalisation
94
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Future issuesregardingelectricity markets
• Power to gas
• Power to liquids
• Interplay between electricityand heat
• electrification of transport
• …
Sector coupling
95
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New relations between players
96
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Digitalisationand energy
97Source: Pöyry
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Sector coupling provides opportunities for flexible storage…
… by integrating a growing share of renewable electricity in carbon-intensive industries
98
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Regulation vs. market
Regualation Regulation/ market Market
• Grid tariffs
• Regulated prices
• Capacitymechanisms
• RES targets
• Subsidies
• Energy efficiencytargets
• Mandatory ancillaryservices
• Priority dispatch
• Emission standards
• Emissions trading
• Trading of greencertificates
• Auctions forgeneration capacity
• Competition
• Free price formation
• Liquidity
• Markets for ancillaryservices
• Right to self-produce/-consumeand store electricity
• Right to beaggregated
99
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Thank you for your
attention!