Electric vehicles - a more sustainable land transport system for New

Zealand?

Presentation to the 2008 Postgraduate Energy conference

Doug CloverPhD Candidate

Environmental StudiesVictoria University of Wellington

Transport’s contribution to AGW

Source: Kahn Ribeiro, S., S. Kobayashi, et al. (2007)

Source: Ministry of Economic Development, 2007

Source: Ministry for the Environment, 2006

The future of oil?

Source: theoildrum.com

EVs - Road

EVs – Road 2

EVs – Mass transit

Comparative vehicle efficiency

Source: Simpson, 2005

Well to Wheel efficiency and GHG emissions

Source: Simpson, 2005

Comparative energy density of petrol and Li ion battery

Comparison based on the Tesla Roadster

Study questions

• What impact will the increased use of EVs for land transport in New Zealand have on GHG emissions?

• What impact would EVs have on fossil fuel usage?• What impact would the increased use of EVs have

on electricity demand and the functioning of the electricity system? – what effect (if any) would this increased use have on the

attainment of the Government’s 90% renewable 2025 target?

Evaluating technological transitions

• How do new technologies arise and what impacts will they have on society?

Three generic approaches• Point source – new technology arises from an

innovative event then develops through stages• Transformational – technology innovations have an

impact on society and vice versa.• Replacement –new technologies compete with old

based on price and performanceGeels (2004)

Proposed Model

Technology and sustainability• Environmental sustainability criteria (OECD 2001)

– Use renewable resources efficiently and not exceed long term rate of natural regeneration

– Use non-renewable resources efficiently and limit their use so they can be substituted by renewable resources

– Limit discharges to be within the assimilative capacity of ecosystems– Avoid actions that have an irreversible effect on the environment

• Will EVs result in an incremental technological change or a technology transition?

“a transition denotes a long-term change in an encompassing system that serves a basic societal function (e.g. food production and consumption, mobility, energy supply and use, communication, etc.).” Elzen (2005)