Electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving EU emission targets
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Transcript of Electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving EU emission targets
Electric renewable technologies -Potential for achieving long term EU energy targets
in residential dwellings
March 2014
Krystyna Dawson
2Excellence in Market Intelligence
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager, BSRIA
2
3Excellence in Market Intelligence
Methodology assumptions
3
And is based on following assumptions:
• Calculations take into account total energy consumption of the household (not only related to the applied system). Heat load for new and existing dwellings and electricity consumption vary by country.
• Current level of financial support and Feed-in-tariffs is applied.
• Gas condensing boiler: primary efficiency 92%
• Micro CHP system: primary efficiency 90%. Average electricity production: 3000kWh per year. 50% of generated electricity is used on site.
• Electric Heat Pump: A/W HP COP 2.9 - 3.5 in existing dwelling / COP 3.9 - 4.5 in new dwelling
• PV system: around 3kWp in all countries but Germany where larger system is more common (7kWp). 35% of electricity produced is for own consumption.
• SO FC: overall efficiency 95% (thermal efficiency 60%, electric efficiency 35%)• PEM FC: overall efficiency 90% (thermal efficiency 53%, electric efficiency 37%)
• Energy and end user prices based on the first half of 2013.
Analysis has taken following products into consideration:
• Gas condensing boiler (as a base technology to be enhanced or replaced by renewable products), Heat Pumps, mico CHP, PV (called established technologies),Fuel cells, intelligent controls (called emerging technologies)
Has been carried out in: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and UK
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Main EU heating markets - background overview
Climatic condition(average temperature)
Share of renewables in final energy consumption
Standard CO2 emission factor
(for consumed electricity)
Gas price
0.023t CO2 /MWhe
0.624t CO2 /MWhe
0.483t CO2 /MWhe
0.440t CO2 /MWhe
France Italy Spain PolandGermany UK Sweden
0.056t CO2 /MWhe
Electricity price
€ 0.059 / kWh
€ 0.14 / kWh
€ 0.061/ kWh
€ 0.25 / kWh
€ 0.068 / kWh
€ 0.20 / kWh
€ 0.041 / kWh
€ 0.15 / kWh
€ 0.121 / kWh
€ 0.21 / kWh
€ 0.047 / kWh
€ 0.15 / kWh
€ 0.057 / kWh
€ 0.19 / kWh
1.191tCO2 /MWhe
0.543t CO2 /MWhe
2010:7.9%
2020: 23%
2010:12.2%
2020: 18 %
2010:3.3%
2020: 15%
2010:10%
2020: 17%
2010:11.3%
2020: 20%
2010:7.5%
2020: 15%
2010:35.9%
2020: 49%
Between:
-3 - 7.5°C
Between
8.5 - 11°C
Between
11 - 19°C
Between
11 - 15°CBetween
7 - 10°C
Between
5 - 10°CBetween
14 - 19°C
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Summary of findings
5
• Electric technologies with the highest potential to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions:
- Heat Pumps, Intelligent controls, PV, Fuel cells.
• Electric technologies offering the best savings to the end user (based on operating cost): - PV installed with a heat pump (in countries where FiT are available)
• Electric technologies representing the best investment to the end user (based on lifetime cost):
- PV and only in countries providing generous FiT can currently compete with gas condensing boilers in terms of life time cost. High initial investment reduces
efficiency advantages in all other cases.
• Electric technologies eligible for continuous long term financial support: - PV in Germany, France, UK- Heat pumps in Sweden
• Market development:- highly dependent on consistent and continuous financial support - under increasing influence of energy prices
In comparison to the high efficiency gas condensing boiler
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Technologies with the highest potential to achieve EU energy targets
Existing dwellings:
Electric Heat Pump
6
Intelligent controls
Fuel Cell
New dwellings:
Electric Heat Pump
Intelligent controls
Photovoltaic
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Existing dwellings
7
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Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country
8
Existing dwellings
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
Sweden
Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0
Heat Pumps & combination of
HP and PV system is most
effective
kg CO2e / year
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CO2 emission savings - closer lookestablished technologies
9
Heat pump Heat pump & PV system
Current standard CO2 emission factor
for consummed electricty
Poland
Germany / UK
Italy / Spain
France / Sweden
0.624 / 0.543t CO2 /MWhe
0.056 / 0.023t CO2 /MWhe
1.191tCO2 /MWhe
0.483 / 0.440t CO2 /MWhe
Increased CO2 emissions
Savings of CO2 emissions against stand alone gas condensing boiler:
High savings(50%)
Low savings(13% – 38%)
Medium savings(47% - 23%)
Low savings(6% - 17%)
Medium savings(30% - 24%)
High savings(90% - 96%)
Very low savings(2% - 1%)
PV system provides additional:
Existing dwellings
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-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Micro CHP
Electric Heat Pump
PV+GCB
PV+ HP
10
CO2 savings – long term prospectestablished technologies
Heat pumps are most effective
% savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country
Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized
grid future
Existing dwellings
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UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
SOFC
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
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Existing dwellings
Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies by country - FC / Intelligent controls
kg CO2e / yearFuel cells are very
effective in countries with higher CO2 emission
factors.
HEMS and Intelligent controls added to HP are most effective in
countries with heavy CO2 electricity.
No FC in Sweden
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Recommended technologies
12
Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years):
Heat pumps• Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization
process of the grid;• Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency;• R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart
grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid.
Intelligent controls• Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps
• Will add to the reduction of energy demand.
• Fuel cells • Ideal replacement of GCB in countries with higher CO2 emission factor;• Good alternative if heat pump cannot be installed. • More flexible electricty generator as PV system; can be part of the smart grid in the future.
Existing dwellings
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Annual operating cost for established technologies by country
13
€uroExisting
dwellings
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
UKGermanyFranceItalySpainPolandSweden
Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0
Impact on operating cost:
• Energy prices• Financial support:
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Savings in Operating Cost – performanceestablished technologies
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-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Micro CHP
Electric Heat Pump
PV+GCB
PV+ HP
Existing dwellings
% savings in operating cost against GCB by technology, by country(over 20 years)
• High electricity prices are keeping operating cost high for Heat Pumps.
• Support by FiT proves to be very effective.
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Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country
UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
SOFC
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
• Intelligent controls reduce operating cost and provide competitive advantage in dwellings with Heat Pumps.
• Thanks to its electric efficiency, operating cost of a Fuel Cell is well below the level of gas condensing boiler, providing FiT (calculated at mCHP level) are available.
Existing dwellings
€uro / year
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Conclusions on operating cost potential
Fuel cells –
need further trials to prove their efficiency.
16
Heat Pumps -
need Feed-in-tariff support to provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler.
Intelligent controls –
need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings
Existing dwellings
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Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country
17
€uro / year
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
UKGermanyFranceItalySpainPolandSweden
Micro CHP not sold in Poland
hence value = 0
Existing dwellings
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UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
SOFC
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country
• Fuel Cell is currently bearing extremly high investment cost and showing competitive level of lifetime cost only with high electricity price and decent FiT (Germany).
€uro / year
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New dwellings
19
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Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country
20
kg CO2e
New dwellings
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP
(1,000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
Sweden
Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0
Heat Pumps & a combination of
HP and PV system is most
effective
21Excellence in Market Intelligence 21
CO2 savings – long term prospectestablished technologies
% savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country(over 20 years) Addition of a PV
system is effective in countries with high
CO2 conversion factor
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Micro CHPElectric Heat PumpPV+GCBPV+ HP
Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized
grid future
New dwellings
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Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent controls) by country
kg CO2e
HP combined with HEMS and Intelligent
controls bring best savings in countries
with lower CO2 conversion factor..
UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
PEM Fc
No FC in Sweden
New dwellings
Fuel cells are effective in countries with high CO2
conversion factor (Germany, Poland).
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Recommended technologies
23
Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years):
Heat pumps• Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization
process of the grid;• Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency;• R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart
grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid.
Intelligent controls• Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps
• Will add to the reduction of energy demand.
• Photovoltaic• Reduce CO2 emissions• In dwellings with no gas connection the only way of own electricty generation;• Combined with storage solutions they can be part of the smart grid in the future.
New dwellings
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Annual operating cost for established technologies by country
24
€uro
New dwellings
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP
(200)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
UKGermanyFranceItalySpainPolandSweden
Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0
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Savings in operating cost over 20 years – established technologies
25
Savings in operating cost (over 20 years) when GCB is replaced or combined with electric renewable system
UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Micro CHP
Electric Heat Pump
PV+GCB
PV+ HP
FiT have biggest impact on operating cost for PV and micro CHP systems.
No FiT for HP in new dwellings.
New dwellings
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Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country
€uro
UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
PEM Fc
• Operating cost of a Fuel Cell is below the level of gas condensing boiler even when FiT is not available (Italy, Spain, Poland).
• Intelligent controls reduce operating cost to the higher extent than in existing dwellings.
New dwellings
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Conclusions on operating cost potential
Photovoltaics
need storage battery to develop in order to achieve its full potential.
27
Heat Pumps -
provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler even without FiT.
Disadvantaged by FiT available for PV and micro CHP
Intelligent controls –
need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings
New dwellings
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Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country
28
€uro
New dwellings
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
UK
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Poland
Sweden
Micro CHP not sold in Poland
hence value = 0
• High end user price, lack of financial support for heat pump and high electricity cost make HP less competitive than gas cond. boiler.
29Excellence in Market Intelligence 29
€uro
Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country
• Fuel Cell is currently bearing very high investment cost and due to lower heat load producing less electricity. Both result in lifetime cost not competitive with HP and GCB.
UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Gas cond boiler (GCB)
Heat pump (HP)
HP+HEMS+Int.Controls
PEM Fc
30Excellence in Market Intelligence
Summary
Offer high CO2 savings in new and existing dwellings on the long term.
30
Intelligent controls
Fuel Cell
Photovoltaic
Heat pumps
Their market adoption is highly dependent on:
Feed-in-tariffs Energy prices
Heat loadProduct efficiency
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Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: [email protected]