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Electric powered two-wheelers(e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?
Chris Cherry, Associate Professor, University of Tennessee, KnoxvillePresented at Transforming Transportation 2015
Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?
Chris CherryAssociate Professor – Civil and Environmental Engineering
Transportation Engineering and Science ProgramUniversity of Tennessee, Knoxville
Note: most work presented here sponsored by NSF CAREER Award CBET –1055282 and supported by
current and former students Shuguang Ji, Andrew Campbell, Luke Jones, Ziwen Ling, and Hongtai Yang
China Market Simply put: e-bikes are fastest and largest
growth of alt-fuel in history of motorization
China Market Simply put again: e-bikes are the most energy
(and CO2) efficient motorized mode that exists
10x
4x
2x
Benefits compared to what? China: e-bike tend to displace transit…and cars
Previous e‐bike studies and potential mode shift.
Benefits compared to what? Kunming: bicycles dimming, 1 in 4 e-bikes displace car-based trip
E-bike Rider Previous Mode
E-bike Rider Current Best Alternative
E-bike riders as future car owners Kunming: ~40% of e-bike riders have car in household, now more
than bicycles and relatively large fraction plan to purchase
In Kunming: Household vehicle ownership and purchase plans.
E-bike riders as future car owners Is Kunming representative? We conducted a national telephone survey and found similar
results: HH car ownership (19-40%), purchase plans (8-30%). Hierarchical logit for car purchase: HH variables matter most,
some city/regional-level data.
E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable? Recent studies on e-bikes find:
– e-bike riders behave poorly – e-bike fatalities up a little less than e-bike growth
What about the batteries?
Battery production loss rates hover around 20-30% of the battery weight…
Multiplied by tens of millions of batteries a year
Bikesharing as externality control Bikeshare/Scooter share
– Beijing stated preference mode switch model of e-bike sharing vs. bicycle sharing
– E-bike: bad air days, hot days, longer trips, compete with transit
– E-bikes pull from “sheltered” modes– Young- and middle-aged male respondents more
likely to use e-bikes and bikeshare in general
Key findings from UTK study
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10
20
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70
Walk PersonalBike
Bus Car No Trip
Per
cen
t T
rip
s
Mode Displaced by UTK E-bike Sharing System
E-Bike
Bike
E-bike trip lengths longer More utility errand-type
trips More comfortable People used regular
bicycles more than we expected (both free). 30% of bicycle choosers disliked e-bike (43% of women)
1. Langford, B. C., Cherry, C., Yoon, T., Worley, S. & Smith, D. North America's First E-Bikeshare. Transportation Research Record 2387, 120–128 (2014).2. Ji, S., Cherry, C. R., Han, L. D. & Jordan, D. A. Electric bike sharing: simulation of user demand and system availability. Journal of Cleaner Production 1–8 (2013).
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
Low GasPrices
High GasPrices
Ahmedabad Market Potential Controlling for Price and Technology
Cherry, C. & Jones, L. Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam: Market Analysis and Environmental Impacts. Asian Development Bank 1–54 (2010).
Penetrating Motorcycle Markets
Penetrating Motorcycle Markets
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Low GasPrices &No TaxIncentive
High GasPrices &No TaxIncentive
Low GasPrices &10% TaxIncentive
High GasPrices &10% TaxIncentive
Hanoi Market Potential Controlling for Price, Technology, and Regulation
Jones, L. R., Cherry, C. R., Vu, T. A. & Nguyen, Q. N. The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam. Transportation Research Part A 57, 1–11 (2013).
In China, without a doubt
In USA, about 200k sold last year
In Europe, about two million sold
At this year’s Interbike, Gary Fisher called e-bikes the “next big thing” for the bicycle industry
Are e-bikes a game changer?
Conclude
E-bike riders are vulnerable but the industry can be its own worst enemy (weight and speed)
E-bikes should perform like bicycles in places where bicycles can compete
E-scooters need push/pull to compete in established motorcycle markets
Bikesharing has big potential to support sustainable e-bike deployment
ThanksChristopher CherryAssociate ProfessorCivil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Tennessee-Knoxville321 JD Tickle BuildingKnoxville, TN 37996-2313phone: 865-974-7710mobile: 865-684-8106email: [email protected]://web.utk.edu/~cherryhttp://www.cycleushare.comhttp://tesp.engr.utk.edu/lever.php