Electric Power Planning for Flexibility
Transcript of Electric Power Planning for Flexibility
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Electric Power Planning for Flexibility: Integrating Unit Commitment Constraints into Long-term planning for Renewables
Bryan Palmintier Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EE500E Energy & Environment Seminar University of Washington Oct 13, 2011
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Overview o Background
o Renewable Impacts o Flexibility & Unit Commitment o Planning
o UC + Planning… is it worth it? n Infeasible Mixes n Wrong policy (CO2 price) conclusions
o A way to do it n Full system size, full 8760 n Much, much, faster
2 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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The Electric Power System Today Uncertainties: o Fuel Prices o Load Growth o Policy Simplified by: o Predictable
Load Cycles o Decoupled
Dynamics
Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13 3
Icon Image Credits: PT: Powered Templates UniS: science.uniserve.edu.au/school/sciweek/2005/ RMI: Rocky Mountain Institute
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Advanced Electric Power System Uncertainties: o Fuel Prices, Load
Growth, Policy o Renewable Output o Demand Participation o Tech. Development
Complicated by: o Uncertain
Load Cycles o Coupled
Dynamics
Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13 4
Icon Image Credits: PT: Powered Templates UniS: science.uniserve.edu.au/school/sciweek/2005/ RMI: Rocky Mountain Institute
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Renewables Impacts o Uncertainty o Variability
o More Operational Flexibility Required
5 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Power system Flexibility drivers o Generator Operating Constraints
n Minimum output level n Ramp Rates n Startup costs & cycling limits
o Operating Reserve Requirements n Function of Wind Forecast
o Policy/Market n Wind priority, Must Run n Timing
o (And others)
6 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Flexibility Comparison
Technology Impact on Operations Flexibility
Wind Bad Storage Good Demand Response Good NG (+ CCS?) Good (OK?) Coal (+ CCS?) Bad (Worse?) Nuclear Bad
7 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Electric Power Model Types
Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13 8
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Modeling Flexibility: Unit Commitment o Generator Operating Constraints
n Minimum output level n Ramp Rates n Startup costs & cycling limits
o Operating Reserve Requirements n Function of Wind Forecast
o Policy/Market n Wind priority, Must Run n Timing
o (And others)
9 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Modeling Flexibility: Unit Commitment o Generator Operating Constraints
n Minimum output level n Ramp Rates n Startup costs & cycling limits
o Operating Reserve Requirements n Function of Wind Forecast
o Policy/Market n Wind priority, Must Run n Timing
o (And others)
10 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
Difficult Optimization Problem: Mixed-Integer (Combinatorial) Lots of Constraints Long run times even for short time periods
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Planning – Load Duration Curve
11 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Planning – Load Duration Curve
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Planning – Screening Curve
13 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Run Time
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Impact of Detailed Operations
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Planning Today
o Power Systems n 2 iterative stages:
1. Screening for Adequacy 2. Scenario Analysis
o Policy Makers n Use screening tools directly
o Today’s screening tools n Simple operations n Can’t assess flexibility
15 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
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Simple operations models assume perfect flexibility
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ERCOT 2009 + 20% growth with 20% RPS + $75/ton CO2
Merit order economic dispatch
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Unit commitment models capture key technical constraints
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Same Installed Generators
ERCOT 2009 + 20% growth with 20% RPS + $75/ton CO2
Unit Commitment Operations
2 1 3 4 5
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New Approaches
o Flexibility: an additional iterative step? 1. Screening for Adequacy 2. Flexibility assessment 3. Scenario Analysis
o Our approach: combine Screening & Flexibility assessment into one tool
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New Approaches
o Flexibility: an additional iterative step? 1. Screening for Adequacy 2. Flexibility assessment 3. Scenario Analysis
o Our approach: combine Screening & Flexibility assessment into one tool
19 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
Discrete Variables
Combinatorial Explosion
i.e. Hard
Is it Worth it?
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$0/ton C02e Cost (20% RPS)
20 Palmintier, UW EE500E Seminar 2011-10-13
8760 Hour. 195 existing + >100 Possible new Units. Simple = Economic Dispatch with baseload minimum. Detailed = Clustered Integer Unit Commitment including Ramping, Flexibility Reserves as a function of Wind, Startup Costs & Limits, Minimum Output. Actual ERCOT 2009 Load and Wind Data, Linear Scale. ERCOT 2007 Gen mix from eGrid2010. Costs & Tech Parameters from Northwest Power Plan #6, 2010.
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$40/ton C02e Cost (20% RPS)
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8760 Hour. 195 existing + >100 Possible new Units. Simple = Economic Dispatch with baseload minimum. Detailed = Clustered Integer Unit Commitment including Ramping, Flexibility Reserves as a function of Wind, Startup Costs & Limits, Minimum Output. Actual ERCOT 2009 Load and Wind Data, Linear Scale. ERCOT 2007 Gen mix from eGrid2010. Costs & Tech Parameters from Northwest Power Plan #6, 2010.
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8760 Hour. 195 existing + >100 Possible new Units. Simple = Economic Dispatch with baseload minimum. Detailed = Clustered Integer Unit Commitment including Ramping, Flexibility Reserves as a function of Wind, Startup Costs & Limits, Minimum Output. Actual ERCOT 2009 Load and Wind Data, Linear Scale. ERCOT 2007 Gen mix from eGrid2010. Costs & Tech Parameters from Northwest Power Plan #6, 2010.
ERCOT 2009 + 20% growth with 20% RPS
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Problems with Simple Ops
Design Model
Scenario Simple Detailed (UC)
Optimal Expansion with $45/ton + 20% RPS
$40.0B/yr 61.7Mt CO2
9GW CT + 13.5GW Nuke
$38.4B/yr 68.2Mt CO2
14GW CT + 8GW Nuke
Optimal Expansion with 44.5Mt CO2 cap + 20% RPS
Infeasible Can’t reach RPS + Cap
$42.5B/yr $97.6/t CO2
4GW CT+4GW CCGT+13.5GW Nuke
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1. Assume target CO2=44.5Mt ($45/t) 2. Find optimal plan(s) 3. Run using detailed UC model
Note: using older EIA costs and conservative technical constraints
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What is going on?
2000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
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100
120
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160
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Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Tota
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ost
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yr)
Lots o' Coal
Way over built
Minimum Emissions
Simple OperationsReserve Constraints
Lots o' Gas
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Tota
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ost
Carbon Emissions
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A Combined Model
o Capacity Planning n Minimize Investment + Ops Cost n RPS, CO2 cost, CO2 cap
o Unit Commitment (Operations) n On/Off decisions n Min/Max output per plant n Ramping n Startup costs & limits
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“Classic” Approach o Unit Commitment: Binary On/Off
n Every Plant n Every Hour
o Capacity Planning: Build/Not Build n New Plants only n Every ~Year
o Can reduce to 3 states/gen/time:
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...OnOff
Not Built
Nmax1
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Clustered Integer Approach
1. Group units into clusters
2. Two integers: n # Built n # Committed
Assumption: identical plants in cluster (same tech.)
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See paper for mathematical formulation and specifics
0
Nmax
Plants Built
Plants on-line
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Reduced Curse of Dimensionality Traditional Binary Clustered Integer
Combinations 100 units in 10:20:70 Clusters
1047 107
CPLEX equations 235units x 168hr Generation Expansion
536,731 12,319
CPLEX equations 235units x 8760hr Generation Expansion
Too Large 630,775
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Enables
o High time resolution: 8760hr o Full size system:
195 existing units, 128+ new units
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Performance Comparison
Problem Traditional UC Cluster Integer UC Capacity Planning Old data
00:00.57 56:55.22
Capacity Planning New data
8 sec 10800+ sec (time limit)
Operations Only New data
0.3 sec 25 sec
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o Identical Problems/Solutions o 168hr (1 week) only o 324 units, 8-9 clusters
Time to solve Mixed Integer problem to 0.02% MIP tolerance. Solver CPLEX 12.2, formulation in GAMS, Single 2.4GHz core. ERCOT2009 + 20% growth + 20% RPS from earlier examples except ops only: 0.95% growth with 10% RPS. Minimum data output
100-5000x Faster
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Conclusions o Operations constraints critical for
planning with renewables n Infeasible mixes n Emission Targets
o Clustered Integer Unit Commitment Formulation is efficient n Enables 8760hr & 300+unit
o Other potential uses n Annual Emission Cap n Initial Integer solution
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0
Nmax
Plants Built
Plants on-line
Design Model
Scenario Simple Detailed (UC)
Optimal Expansion with $45/ton + 20% RPS
$40.0B/yr 61.7Mt CO2
9GW CT + 13.5GW Nuke
$38.4B/yr 68.2Mt CO2
14GW CT + 8GW Nuke
Optimal Expansion with 44.5Mt CO2 cap + 20% RPS
Infeasible Can’t reach RPS + Cap
$42.5B/yr $97.6/t CO2
4GW CT+4GW CCGT+13.5GW Nuke
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On-going research
o Clusters for Long-term Unit Commitment o Heterogeneous Clusters o Uncertainty
n Operations, including forecasts n Long-term: policy, prices, etc.
o Multi-stage investment decisions n Approximate Dynamic Programming n Multi-fidelity models
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QUESTIONS?
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