Tantraloka With Jayaratha Commentary 5913 Alm 26 Shlf 3 1466 K Devanagari - Tantra Part7
Electric power and renewable energy outlook and challenges ...eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5913.pdf · to...
Transcript of Electric power and renewable energy outlook and challenges ...eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5913.pdf · to...
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
Electric power and renewable energy
outlook and challenges for 2015
December 19, 2014
Jyunichi OGASAWARA
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
Fossil Fuels & Electric Power Industry Unit
The 418th Forum on Research Work
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
This report covers:
1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand
ratio
2. Energy feed-in tariff system
3. Future Work
1
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(1) Current status
2
①The Organization for
Cross-regional Coordination
of Transmission Operators
(OCCTO) established
(maintains long-term supply-
demand balance/system
planning, regional
emergency operation)
First phase
2015 target
Second phase
2016 target
Founded in November
2013
②Full liberalization of electricity
retail business
(retail tariff continues until the
third phase)
Founded in June 2014
③Legal unbundling of
transmission/distribution sector
(neutrality/transparency of
network sector)
Third phase
2018-2020 target
Provisions for partial revision to
pass at a Ordinary Diet session in
2015
④ Review on regulatory
bodies
(wheeling service fee
regulation, market
monitoring, emergency
response)
Nuclear power station
shutdown/policy change,
funding for power companies
/financial market concerns
[Cabinet Decision document]
⑤Others
a. New framework to secure
supply capacity (obligation to ensure supply
capacity, creation of capacity
markets)
b. Creation of hour-ahead
market, etc.
Re
po
rt b
y t
he
Exp
ert
Co
mm
itte
e o
n
Ele
ctr
icity S
yste
m R
efo
rm
February 2013
Syste
m D
esig
n W
ork
ing
Gro
up
Delay in resuming operation at nuclear power stations, aging
nuclear power stations’ extension of operation, business
stability related to electricity charges
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1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(2) Agenda for FY 2015
3
First phase of the Policy on Electricity
System Reform takes effect from April
More companies leaving the TEPCO grid to
PPS
Prior to the second phase, General Electricity Utilities (GEU)
maintains unilateral obligations for stable supply
New supply-demand plan in effect, to be
submitted by Power Producer and
Suppliers (PPS) and Specified Electricity
Utilities
OCCTO is established in preparation for its
full-scale cross-regional coordination
system operation scheduled to launch in
FY 2016.
Who will conduct the short-term reliability evaluation
that the Electricity Supply-Demand Verification
Subcommittee performed in the past?
(Energy-conservation request/power usage
restriction order, etc.)
Work in 2015 prepares for
full-liberalization of retail
business, full-operation by
OCCTO in 2016.
Short-term reliability evaluation
Cross-sectional operational reliability evaluation
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1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(3) Responsibility of OCCTO
4
The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO), which is scheduled to launch in April 2015, will
handle the following: (1)cross-regional supply-demand planning/evaluation, (2) planning for system grid connection and cross-regional
power transmission lines, (3) cross-regional operation of supply-demand and systems (as soon as a system is ready), and (4) balancing
the supply-demand ratio under a tight supply-demand situation. Incorporating the working mechanism of the current Electric Power
System Council of Japan (ESCJ), which will establish an organizational structure to accomplish the above-mentioned responsibilities. It
will also handle rule-making on a) how to utilize interconnecting grids, b) best formation of grid connecting facilities, c) best way to
connect systems, d) procedures necessary for emergency response under disaster. A new management system for system grid
connection will also be constructed.
(1)Cross-regional supply-demand
planning/evaluation
(2) Planning for system grid
connection and cross-regional
power transmission lines
(3) Cross-regional operation of
supply-demand and systems (as
soon as a system is ready)
(4) Balancing the supply-demand
ratio under a tight supply-demand
situation.
Each power company will submit a
supply-demand plan, though possibly not
in time for the 2015 summer supply-
demand verification
Satisfactory response may not be
feasible if a tight supply-demand
situation occurs.
((4) becomes enforceable after (3) is
established.)
It will require governmental
involvement such as through the
use of the Electricity Supply-
Demand Verification
Subcommittee under the
Strategic Policy Committee to
secure stable supply in the
transitional period in 2015.
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1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(4) PPS demand and reserve capacity within the TEPCO grid
5
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
系統3%予備率維持に必要な東電予備率
新電力シェア
Note) PPS power supply capacity is set based on TEPCO’s reserve
margins at zero.
Note) Max PPS power is determined from the difference between ESCJ’s regional
max power and the daily max power in TEPCO’s “Electricity Forecast,”
represented as the maximum value for the relevant months.
Source) ESCJ Electricity Supply-Demand Review and TEPCO Electricity Forecast
Maximum PPS power and estimated
withdrawal rate
PPS share and TEPCO’s reserve
margins
Within the current
withdrawal rate
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
10
/01
20
10
/06
20
10
/11
20
11
/04
20
11
/09
20
12
/02
20
12
/07
20
12
/12
20
13
/05
2013/1
0
20
14
/03
20
14
/08
Maximum PPS power PPS share
新電力最大電力(万kW) 新電力シェア PPS share Maximum PPS power (10MW) TEPCO reserve margins required to
maintain 3% system reserve capacity
PPS share
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1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(5) Post-disaster countermeasures for summer/winter months
Coverage area Energy-conservation request Events
Summer 2011 Tokyo Electric Power,
Tohoku Electric Power
Electricity usage restriction Tohoku Electric Power experienced a tight supply-demand ratio
due to the operation shutdown of hydropower which generated 1
GW, after heavy rainfall in Niigata and Fukushima on 8/8.
Winter 2011 Kansai Electric Power,
Kyushu Electric Power
Energy-conservation request with a target
figure
Kyushu Electric Power experienced a tight supply-demand ratio
due to a 2.295 GW interruption from the Shin-oita thermal power
station accident on 2/3.
Shikoku Electric Power experienced a tight supply-demand ratio
due to a record-breaking cold wave on 2/2.
Summer 2012 Hokkaido Electric Power,
mid-western Japan
Energy-conservation request with a target
figure
Hokkaido Electric Power experienced a tight supply-demand ratio
due to a record-breaking late-summer heat waves on 9/17 and
9/18.
Winter 2012 Hokkaido Electric Power Energy-conservation request with a target
figure
Unplanned thermal station shutdown at Hokkaido Electric Power
reduced its reserve margins.
Summer 2013 Whole area General energy-conservation request Reserve margins decline due to heat wave at Kyushu Electric
Power
Winter 2013 Hokkaido Electric Power General energy-conservation request Tomato-atsuma power station Unit 4 shutdown at Hokkaido
Electric Power reduced its reserve margins.
Summer 2014 Whole area General energy-conservation request (target
figure was not established while there was
concern that the reserve margin in mid-
western Japan would be under 3%)
(Mid-western Japan saved from a tight supply-demand ratio thanks
to cold summer.)
Winter 2014 Hokkaido Electric Power General energy-conservation request 6
While an unplanned shutdown of thermal power stations in the summer of 2014 led to concern that the reserve margins
would dip below 3%, a cool summer avoided a supply shortage. Ongoing situations that are susceptible to a tighter
supply-demand ratio if an unplanned interruption occurs at thermal power stations need to be noted, along with
concerns regarding lower consumer awareness of energy-saving, since main the measures recently focus on suppliers
meeting the demand rather than on energy conservation efforts by consumers.
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1. Electric power system reform and tight supply-demand ratio
(6) Supply-demand ratio of Hokkaido Electric Power
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Supply reserve capacity Max power
Supply capacity Max unit
Supply reserve margins
万kW
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
11/01 11/08 11/15 11/22 11/29
Supply reserve capacity Max power
Supply capacity Max unit
Supply reserve margins
10 MW
7
Tomato-atsuma power station Unit 4 (0.7 GW) shutdown
Supply-demand in winter 2013 Up-to-date supply-demand in winter 2014
Source) Hokkaido Electric Power Electricity Forecast
Its 0.7 GW thermal power station shutdown in winter 2013 brought a challenging supply-demand balance. There
are concerns that a similar challenge would arise if any unexpected shutdown of large-scale thermal power
facilities occur during the 2014 winter season.
10 MW
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
2. Energy feed-in tariff system
(1) Changes in FIT facility approval/operation startup capacity
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2012/7 2012/11 2013/3 2013/7 2013/11 2014/3 2014/7
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
運転開始容量(万kW)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2014/04 2014/05 2014/06 2014/07
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
移行容量(万kW)
8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012/8 2012/11 2013/2 2013/5 2013/8 2013/11 2014/2 2014/5
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
運転開始容量(万kW)
Capacity of approved-transfers
Newly-operating capacity
Newly-approved capacity
72.21 GW in July
8.81 GW in July
11.86 GW in July As of July 2014, including the amount switched from the
previous RPS system, the FIT power source in operation
totals 20.66 GW, with an approved capacity of 81.01 GW.
Especially, approved capacity reached close to the total
maximum daily power from 9 power companies during the
Golden Week holiday (88.25 GW on 5/4/2014)
Monthly increase
of approx. 0.6 GW
Source) Information disclosure website on Energy FIT system, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Operation startup
capacity (10 MW)
Operation startup
capacity (10MW)
Transferred capacity
(10 MW)
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2. Energy feed-in tariff system
(2)Approved/in-operation capacity by region (as of July 2014)
9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Hokkaid
o
Tohoku
Tokyo
Chubu
Hokuriku
Kansai
Chugoku
Shik
oku
Kyushu
Okin
aw
a
Solar power (10kW or less) Solar power (10kW or higher)
Windpower Hydropower
Geothermal Biomass
Daytime minimum load
認定容量(万kW)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Hokkaid
o
Tohoku
Tokyo
Chubu
Hokuriku
Kansai
Chugoku
Shik
oku
Kyushu
Okin
aw
a
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
Daytime minimum load
運転開始済容量(万kW)
Source) Information disclosure website on Energy FIT system, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Approved capacity Operating capacity
Both capacities for approved and in-operation facilities show significant regional disparities.
Kyushu Electric Power reported approvals that substantially exceed minimum daytime load.
Approved capacity (10 MW) Operating capacity (10 MW)
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2. Energy feed-in tariff system
(3) Changes in approved FIT capacity in the Kyushu Electric Power grid
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2012/07 2012/11 2013/03 2013/07 2013/11 2014/03 2014/07
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
万kW
10
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
Daytime minimum load Solar power × 0.6
万kW
Newly-approved capacity
Newly-approved capacity +
Transferred(from RPS to FIT) capacity
Equivalent to 66% of the
past approval amount was
processed within the month.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012/07 2012/11 2013/03 2013/07 2013/11 2014/03 2014/07
Biomass Geothermal
Hydropower Windpower
Solar power (10kW or higher) Solar power (10kW or less)
万件
一月で6万件の認定が発生
Newly-approved cases
Source) Information disclosure website on Energy FIT system, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
A massive amount of last-minute approval applications
were submitted before the purchase price change in
March 2014.
10 MW
10 MW
10,000 cases
60,000 cases were
approved within the month.
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2. Energy feed-in tariff system
(4) Changes in FIT purchase power volume and price
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
20
12
/7
20
12
/8
20
12
/9
20
12
/10
20
12
/11
20
12
/12
20
13
/1
20
13
/2
20
13
/3
20
13
/4
20
13
/5
20
13
/6
20
13
/7
20
13
/8
20
13
/9
20
13
/10
20
13
/11
20
13
/12
20
14
/1
20
14
/2
20
14
/3
20
14
/4
20
14
/5
20
14
/6
20
14
/7
Au
g-1
4
Biomass power generation
Geothermal power generation facility
Hydropower generation facility
Windpower generation facility
Solar power generation (10kW or higher)
Solar power generation (10kW or less)
Compared with the electricity consumption
買取電力量(億kWh) 電力消費量比
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
20
12
/7
20
12
/8
20
12
/9
20
12
/10
20
12
/11
20
12
/12
20
13
/1
20
13
/2
20
13
/3
20
13
/4
20
13
/5
20
13
/6
20
13
/7
20
13
/8
20
13
/9
20
13
/10
20
13
/11
20
13
/12
20
14
/1
20
14
/2
20
14
/3
20
14
/4
20
14
/5
20
14
/6
20
14
/7
Au
g-1
4
Biomass power generation
Geothermal power generation facility
Hydropower generation facility
Windpower generation facility
Solar power generation (10kW or higher)
Solar power generation (10kW or less)
Average purchase price
買取額(億円) 平均買取額(円/kWh)
Changes in FIT-purchase power volume Changes in FIT-purchase power price
Source) Information disclosure website on Energy FIT system, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
178.2 billion yen 579.1 billion yen 432.3 billion yen 5.59 TWh 18.12 TWh
11.91 TWh
Following the start of the new program, FIT-purchased power drastically increased. The total purchase price in
fiscal 2013 was 579.1 billion yen, with a projected total for 2014 that is almost certainly to exceed 1 trillion yen.
Purchased power volume (100 GWh) Compared with electricity consumption Purchase price (100 million yen) Average purchase price (yen/kWh)
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3. Future Work
(1) Immediate challenges related to an energy FIT system
[Future challenges]
Verification of renewable energy power generation connectible volume (WG on Grid Connection of
Renewable Energy)
Positioning a FIT-power source in the electric system reform (WG on System Design)
FIT system operation review (New and Renewable Energy Subcommittee)
Best mix search for 2030 (connectible volume + additional measures) (Strategic Policy Committee)
12
New and Renewable Energy
Subcommittee
WG on Grid Connection of
Renewable Energy
WG on System Design
• Improving FIT system operation
• Bidding system adopted for
enhancing electricity
transmission/distribution facilities
• Understanding procurement and
avoidable costs
• Promotional policy based on each
renewable energy feature
• Basic concept in calculating
connectible volume (short-term)
• Basic concept in calculating
connectible volume (mid-to-long
term)
• Special provisions in the transition
to an electricity balancing program
with full liberalization of the
electricity retail market
• Review of reserve capacity with an
expanding FIT power source
• Suppression/control of output (advancement)
• Cross-regional grid connection use
* Best cost sharing methods and priority on enforcing upper-connection for cross-regional
grid links and applying cross-regional grid connection, should be discussed.
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Renewable energy
generation policies
3. Future Work
(2) Remaining issues
13
Large-scale introduction of renewable energy generation will have
different cost effectiveness depending on the overall energy mix
structure, such as improved electricity supply-demand substitutability
(electrical-heating, etc.) and flexible supply capacity procurement.
Can the ongoing final phase fully attain liberalization and cohesion of the energy industry?
Cross-regional grid use: usage plans with high probability are being prioritized (use-it-or-lose-it). Is the mechanism to transmit deviated renewable energy in a specific region to another region consistent with respect to the system frame?
Construction of cross-regional grid connections: present cost is principally borne by the party giving rise to the construction needs. How should cost be shared when a construction project is initiated by governmental policy?
Installation of storage battery: FIT-electricity is purchased by electricity resale businesses, but if the installation is prompted by governmental measures for surplus wheeling, the resale business becomes the beneficiary of subsidies, posing a concern for fair competition.
Improved electricity demand substitutability: should flexible electricity usage, such as electric-heating and electric automobiles, be promoted?
Ensuring flexible supply capability: what types of funding should facility upgrades for thermal power station be provided? Very few examples exist in the world of a system to procure reserve capacity responsively.
* While time limitations exist due to meeting the climate change target, thorough discussions must be
conducted.
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[Reference] Surplus wheeling of FIT electricity
14
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
21:0
0
22:1
0
23:2
0
0:3
0
1:4
0
2:5
0
4:0
0
5:1
0
6:2
0
7:3
0
8:4
0
9:5
0
11:0
0
12:1
0
13:2
0
14:3
0
15:4
0
16:5
0
18:0
0
19:1
0
20:2
0
21:3
0
22:4
0
23:5
0
1:0
0
2:1
0
Net import Other renewable energy
Solar power Windpower
Other thermal CCGT
Coal Hydropower
Nuclear power Demand
Demand- renewable energy
10 MW
December 24 December 25 December 26
Source) REE
Supply-demand operation in Spain on
December 25, 2013
FIT-power
Electricity resale
operator
Transmission and
distribution operators
(1) D
irect
purc
ha
se
(2)T/D operators convert
electricity to sell it to
electricity resale operators
Surplus renewable energy is
wheeled to other time slots by
using pump-storage power.
As solar power generation expands, surplus supply
may restrict FIT-power introduction especially during
the low-load period, such as GW. While energy
storage, such as pump-storage power generation
and storage batteries, are often viewed as a
promising solution, in terms of electricity system
reform, care has to be taken since the electricity
resale business may heavily represent such
operations.
FIT power purchase methods
in Japan
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
[Reference] Generated power/on-site generation
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Other renewable energy Solar power
Windpower Other
Nuclear power Hydropower
Other thermal Oil-fired thermal
LNG thermal Coal-fired thermal
Oil-fired thermal power share Renewable energy share
100 GWh シェア
15
Changes in generated
power
Source) compiled based on Electric Power Investigation Statistics, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010/4
2010/7
2010/1
0
2011/1
2011/4
2011/7
2011/1
0
2012/1
2012/4
2012/7
2012/1
0
2013/1
2013/4
2013/7
2013/1
0
2014/1
2014/4
2014/7
Other operators PPSs
GEUs In-house consumption/loss, etc.
On-site power generation ratio Ratio for PPS sales
100 GWh シェア
Changes in on-site
generators
Increase in
electricity sales
Share
Share
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
[Reference] Power consumption/Max power
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2010/4
2010/7
2010/1
0
2011/1
2011/4
2011/7
2011/1
0
2012/1
2012/4
2012/7
2012/1
0
2013/1
2013/4
2013/7
2013/1
0
2014/1
2014/4
2014/7
2014/1
0
Eastern Japan Mid-western Japan
万kW
16
Note) Maximum monthly figure from the total daily max power from
companies
Source) compiled based on Electricity Supply-Demand Review, Electric
Power System Council of Japan
Changes in max power
by month
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013/4
2013/5
2013/6
2013/7
2013/8
2013/9
2013/1
0
2013/1
1
2013/1
2
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2014/5
2014/6
2014/7
2014/8
2014/9
Specified high voltage High voltage
Electric power Lighting
Specified high-voltage share
10 GWh シェア Changes in power
consumption
Source) compiled based on Electric Power Investigation
Statistics, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Share 10 MW
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IEEJ: Published in January 2014 All rights reserved
[Reference] PPS/Spot trading
17
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013/4
2013/5
2013/6
2013/7
2013/8
2013/9
2013/1
0
2013/1
1
2013/1
2
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2014/5
2014/6
2014/7
2014/8
2014/9
High voltage Specified high voltage
Share (specified high) Share (high voltage)
Share (liberalized field) Share (overall)
100 GWh シェア
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013/0
4
2013/0
5
2013/0
6
2013/0
7
2013/0
8
2013/0
9
2013/1
0
2013/1
1
2013/1
2
2014/0
1
2014/0
2
2014/0
3
2014/0
4
2014/0
5
2014/0
6
2014/0
7
2014/0
8
2014/0
9
Exchange trading share 24hr average price
Daytime average price Peak average price
円/kWh シェア
FIT avoidable cost standard
Changes in PPS power
supply
Source) compiled based on Electric Power Investigation Statistics, Agency for
Natural Resources and Energy
Source) Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX)
Share yen/kWh Share
Changes in spot trading price
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[Reference] Japan/US/Europe electricity price comparison (2013)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Den
ma
rk
Ge
rma
ny
Cyp
rus
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Be
lgia
n
Po
rtuga
l
Sw
ed
en
Au
str
ia
Neth
erla
nd
s
UK
Norw
ay
Ma
lta
Slo
va
kia
Lu
xe
mb
ou
rg
Slo
ve
nia
Fin
lan
d
Gre
ece
Fra
nce
Ja
pa
n
Haw
aii
New
Yo
rk
Ala
ska
Con
ne
cticu
t
Ve
rmo
nt
Calif
orn
ia
New
Ha
mp
sh
ire
Ma
ssa
ch
use
tts
New
Je
rsey
Rho
de
Isla
nd
Mic
hig
an
Ma
ine
Wyo
min
g
Ma
ryla
nd
Dela
wa
re
Pe
nn
sylv
an
ia
Wash
ingto
n D
.C.
US
ave
rage
Min
ne
so
ta
Oh
io
Total
Taxes
Network
Supply
Japan
yen/kWh
Note 1) exchange rate of December 2013 figures (101.02 yen/$, 136.46 yen/$)
Note 2) European taxes include renewable energy generation fees
Source) Eurostat (power consumption 2,500kWh to 5,000kWh) in Europe, EIA “Electric Power Annual” (average electric
fee income) in US, and IEA “Energy Prices and Taxes” in Japan. Please direct inquiries to: [email protected]